Shri Keshav Cements & Infra Ltd Q2 FY2026 Concall Summary & Transcript Notes

Source transcript PDF: https://www.stockscans.in/document/w48sbp9ladpi20zj53qi1xiy.pdf

# 1. Financial Performance

## A. Key Figures
   * **Q2 FY26 Total Income:** **₹36.22 Cr** (+42.81% YoY) · **H1 FY26 Total Income:** **₹77.62 Cr** (+37.14% YoY)
   * H1 FY26 EBITDA: ₹18.7 Cr (+69% YoY) · EBITDA Margin: 24.68% (+444 bps)
   * **Q2 FY26 PAT:** **₹0.69 Cr** (vs. loss prior year) · **EPS:** **₹0.39** (from negative base)
   * H1 FY26 PAT: ₹3.78 Cr · EPS: ₹2.16

## B. Profitability Trends
   *   **Dramatic Margin Expansion:** EBITDA margin surged to 65% in Q2, reflecting strong operating leverage and cost rationalization post-kiln ramp-up.
   *   **Operational Turnaround Confirmed:** Profitability shifted from deep losses in Q2 FY25 to robust PAT, driven by higher dispatches, better realizations, and improved asset utilization.
   *   **EBITDA per Ton Volatility:** Despite sharp improvement to **₹350/ton in Q2 FY26**, performance remains volatile, down from **₹364/ton in Q1**, and still well below **national benchmarks of ₹900–1,000/ton**.
   *   **Profit Outlook Revised:** H1 PBT at **₹4 Cr** fell short of earlier **₹25 Cr PAT projection** due to unsustained price recovery and subsequent price collapse.

## C. Balance Sheet Health
   *   **Debt Reduction Pathway:** Elevated finance costs persist, but company expects to de-lever using cash accruals as plant reaches full rated capacity.
   *   **PBT as Key Metric:** Deferred tax liability is non-cash under Ind AS; PBT provides a clearer view of operational earnings at this stage.

## D. Cash Flow Trends
   *   **Working Capital Management Stable:** Despite higher volumes, inventory and receivables days increased only modestly (receivables: 14 to 18 days), with no material stretch in the overall working capital cycle.

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# 2. Volume & Pricing Trends

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Cement Sales Volume:** **79,000 tons** Q2 FY26 (+53% overall) · **89,000 tons** Q1 FY26
   *   **Realization per Ton:** **₹3,460/ton** Q2 FY26 (ex-factory) · **₹3,430/ton** Q1 FY26
   * 1 million tons current sales vs. 30 million tons regional demand

## B. Volume Trends & Operational Efficiency
   *   **Robust Volume Growth:** Cement sales surged by over half in the latest period, reflecting strong market penetration and operational scalability.
   *   **Lean Inventory Model:** Near-perfect alignment between production and sales underscores just-in-time operations with minimal inventory carry.

## C. Pricing Dynamics & Realization
   *   **Pricing Pressure Persists:** Despite flat sequential realizations, current prices remain **~15% below FY23–FY24 levels**, contributing to a **loss of ~₹600/ton in EBITDA**.
   *   **Final Retail Price Build-Up:** Ex-factory price of ₹3,460/ton translates to **₹300–₹330 per 50 kg bag at retail**, after adding logistics (~₹40/bag) and ~28% taxes, with further erosion from monsoon and payment discounts.
   *   **Seasonal Rebound Expected:** Historical patterns suggest price recovery typically emerges **late November or pre-monsoon (by end-May)**, contingent on construction revival.

## D. Competitive Positioning
   *   **Parity with Major Brands:** Despite smaller scale and limited backward integration, the company maintains **pricing competitiveness with PSU players like Dalmia and JK Cement** in key markets.
   *   **Logistics-Driven Price Variability:** Management emphasizes use of *naked cement price* for benchmarking, as **delivery costs range from ₹5 to ₹100 per bag** based on distance, complicating uniform pricing.
   *   **Structural Cost Disadvantage:** Competitors’ **limestone backward integration** creates a sustained cost edge, while industry-level price stagnation—**5-year CAGR near 0%**—limits margin recovery potential.

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# 3. Capacity & Utilization

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Capacity Utilization:** **35–36%** (current)
   *   **Fuel Consumption:** **850–900 kcal/kg** (current) vs. **1,200 kcal/kg** (pre-CAPEX)
   *   **Fuel Savings:** **80–85%** improvement post-upgrades
   *   **Power Consumption Reduction:** **20–25%** achieved, with **5–6%** further reduction expected

## B. Plant Utilization Rate
   *   **New Kiln Stabilized:** Production is now consistent, enabling strategic shift toward **strengthening market penetration and regional reach**.
   *   **Low Utilization Despite Stability:** Current capacity use remains subdued at 35–36% due to **persistent market sluggishness**.
   *   **Efficiency Milestone Ahead:** Plant on track to become **one of the most fuel-efficient** by quarter-end, supported by pre-heater upgrades.
   *   **RMC Expansion Ready for Trigger:** Setup requires only **45–60 days** and minimal capital; all land and clearances secured—pending cement business stability.

## C. Kiln Performance
   *   **Sustained Fuel Efficiency Gains:** Significant reduction in fuel use driven by **PH cyclones, VRM, and calciner enhancements**, with path to **sub-800 kcal/kg** in sight.

## D. Fuel Efficiency Gains
   *   **Operational Leverage from Upgrades:** New plant design and retrofits delivering **higher power and fuel efficiency**, underpinning ongoing performance gains.
   *   **Near-Full Efficiency Optimization:** Majority of fuel savings (80–85%) already realized, with final 15% targeted imminently.

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# 4. Product & Segment Performance

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Cement Sales Growth:** **64%** YoY increase
   *   **New Kiln Volume Growth:** **52–53%** incremental YoY in Q2 FY26
   * Cement EBITDA (incl. solar): ₹70–80 Cr expected at 70% capacity
   * Solar EBITDA: ₹6.4 Cr contribution, excluded from core cement metrics

## B. Cement Segment Contribution
   *   **Dominant Segment Performance:** Cement remains the primary profit and revenue driver, with **strong double-digit sales growth** fueled by higher dispatches, improved realizations, and full ramp-up of the new kiln.
   *   **Volume Expansion:** The new kiln delivered **robust year-on-year volume growth** across H1, underpinning scalable production capacity and operational efficiency.
   *   **Profitability Outlook:** Cement EBITDA outlook remains strong, supported by favorable pricing and capacity utilization, with potential to exceed **₹75 crores** under current conditions.

## C. Blended Cement Mix
   *   **Margin Optimization Strategy:** Strategic focus on **blended cement**, the highest-margin product line, while maintaining flexible production to meet diverse customer needs on short notice.

## D. Solar Business EBITDA
   *   **Non-Core EBITDA Separation:** Solar business generated **₹4 crores EBITDA**, which is explicitly excluded from core cement profitability to enhance transparency in operational performance assessment.

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# 5. Channel & Distribution

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Distributor Network:** **350** distributors · **600+** retail touch points
   *   **Geographic Reach:** Operations in **North Karnataka, coastal Karnataka, Goa, and parts of Maharashtra**

## B. Dealer Network Strategy
   *   **Targeted Regional Focus:** Expansion constrained to **200–250 km** from operations amid turbulent cement pricing, prioritizing core markets for stability.
   *   **Retail Expansion Push:** Driving growth beyond current footprint via **digital marketing**, **engineer-targeted outreach**, and a **new loyalty program** to boost engagement.
   *   **Volume Pressure Persists:** Dealer offtake remains weak, with purchases below **50% of historical levels**, impacted by monsoon timing, festivals, and elections.

## C. Institutional Customer Growth
   *   **Institutional Traction:** Sales growth sustained despite weak dealer volumes, driven by onboarding of **new customers and institutional buyers**.
   *   **Government Channel Expansion:** Secured approvals from multiple **PWDs in South Maharashtra and North Karnataka**, signaling growing public-sector penetration.
   *   **Demand Fundamentals Intact:** Ongoing construction activity supports demand, with focus on brand availability and distribution leadership.

## D. Supply Chain Efficiency
   *   **Operational Edge:** Industry-leading **12-hour order-to-delivery** capability enhances dealer trust and underpins supply chain competitiveness.
   *   **Brand-Centric Distribution:** Marketing and service excellence promote end-user pull for **Keshav Cements** and **Jyoti Cement** across channels.

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# 6. Cost & Efficiency Advantages

## A. Key Figures
   *   **O&M Cost (electricity):** **₹20–25/unit** (among lowest nationally)
   *   **Captive Mine Savings:** **4–5%** of total production cost

## B. Renewable Energy Savings
   *   **Fully Green Operations:** Cement production in North Karnataka powered entirely by renewable energy via a 40 MW solar facility, positioning the company as the only 100% solar-powered cement plant in India.
   *   **Structural Cost Advantage:** Renewable energy delivers deeper cost savings than captive mines, underpinning industry-leading EBITDA margins and insulation from grid price volatility.
   *   **Competitive Benchmarking Distortion:** Solar-driven margin uplift makes direct EBITDA comparisons with peers using conventional or hybrid energy systems misleading.

## C. O&M Cost Levels
   *   **Efficiency Gains Realized:** H1 FY26 improvements driven by stable fixed costs, lower fuel expenses, and capacity utilization efficiencies at the expanded plant.
   *   **Logistics Cost Constraint:** No economies of scale observed due to fragmented vendor base, maintaining linear per-kilometer cost structure across operations.

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# 7. Demand & Market Risks

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Fuel Price:** **₹13,100/ton** Q2 FY26 · **₹11,700/ton** Q2 FY25 (+12% YoY)

## B. Monsoon Impact
   *   **Seasonal Volume Dip:** Volumes softened in Q2 due to typical monsoon-related slowdowns and lower construction activity, consistent with industry-wide trends.
   *   **Resilient Distribution Network:** Despite reduced offtake from heavy rains, election-driven labor shortages, and lower consumption, dealer loyalty remains strong.
   *   **Demand Recovery Expected:** Normalization of seasonal and external disruptions is anticipated to drive improved offtake and performance.

## C. Labor Shortages
   *   **Construction Activity Constraints:** Institutional demand showed strong intent with high-value orders, but actual offtake lagged due to worker shortages in South Maharashtra and North Karnataka during elections and festivals.

## D. Pricing Volatility
   *   **Market Expansion on Hold:** Entry into Pune, Bangalore, and Kerala delayed until broader pricing conditions improve across the cement sector.
   *   **Fuel Cost Relief Ahead:** Recent decline in fuel prices following a steady rise is expected to support margin improvement in Q3.
   *   **Pricing Power Linked to Activity:** Sustained pickup in construction is key to enabling price hikes, with market participants likely to align on acceptable levels thereafter.
   *   **Data Transparency Challenges:** Real-time, comprehensive cement price and dispatch data is limited; analysts rely on dealer networks and CMA membership for reliable insights.

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# 8. Guidance & Outlook

## A. Key Figures
   *   **EBITDA per Ton (Q):** **₹364** (50% utilization)
   *   **H2 EBITDA Guidance:** **₹350–450/ton** (current prices, stabilization assumed)
   *   **Full-Year EBITDA Guidance (FY26):** **₹45–50 Cr** (down from ₹65–70 Cr)
   *   **H2 Sales Contribution:** **58–60%** of annual sales (typical seasonality)

## B. Full-Year EBITDA View
   *   **Downgraded EBITDA Outlook:** Full-year EBITDA revised down to ₹45–50 Cr due to **persistent price volatility** and **stagnant regional pricing**, despite cost advantages from solar power.
   *   **Utilization-Keyed Leverage:** FY27 EBITDA target of ₹70 Cr hinges on achieving **70% plant utilization** and stable input/output prices, unlocking operating leverage.
   *   **Capital Discipline:** No near-term CAPEX planned, including for solar; focus remains on internal cash flow generation.
   *   **Strategic Flexibility:** Company is building cash balances and remains open to **acquisitions at attractive valuations**, with shareholder returns as a key evaluation criterion.

## C. Utilization Targets
   *   **70% Utilization Target for FY27:** Driven by recovery in construction demand post-monsoon disruptions and expansion into new geographies and institutional channels.
   *   **Capacity Absorption Threshold:** Meaningful top-line impact expected only upon reaching **50–60% utilization**, despite 3x capacity increase.

## D. H2 Sales Expectations
   *   **Dealer Inventory Replenishment Expected:** Sales recovery anticipated as dealer purchases rebound from **below 50% of prior-year volumes** to **100% levels**, supporting H2 momentum.
   *   **Volume Growth Below Target:** Despite industry headwinds limiting Q2 growth to **53%**, management attributes shortfall to external factors, not market share loss.
   *   **RMC Launch Delayed:** Ready-Mix Concrete rollout pushed to end-FY25 or early FY26 to prioritize cement operation stabilization and await favorable pricing.
   *   **Catalyst Watch:** Management sees potential for price and activity improvement by **end-November**, though execution remains conditional on macro recovery.