Asarfi Hospital Ltd Guidance Report - SOIC x StockScans Report
as of Sep 2026
- Bed occupancy - \~75% for FY27-28
On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management targeted approximately 75% bed occupancy for FY27-28. Q1 FY27 occupancy was super-specialty 59% and cancer 56%, below the 75% target with the horizon not yet reached.
- Medical college under PPP - 100-seat, \~₹352 cr project
Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management outlined the medical college under PPP at a total project cost of \~₹352 cr, with a government grant of ₹211 cr (\~60%) and the remainder via internal accruals, equity and bank finance; by the July 2026 webinar the bid was in process. No bid outcome or project approval has been disclosed.
- Cath Lab upgrade - Philips Azurion, completion by end of March 2026
Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 PPT, management planned an upgrade of the Cath Lab with the Philips Azurion 5 M12, completion by end of March 2026. The Cath Lab was operationalized in March 2026.
- GE Healthcare SPECT Gamma Camera - completion by end of March 2026
Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 PPT, management announced investment in a GE Healthcare Dual-Detector SPECT Gamma Camera with project completion by end of March 2026. The camera was installed during FY26.
- Cancer Institute occupancy - 75% by FY25 (later 60%)
Missed - At the Q2 FY25 PPT, Cancer Institute occupancy was expected to attain 75% by FY25, lowered in the same deck to 60% by end of FY25. Cancer occupancy was 30% in FY25, 42% in FY26 and 56% in Q1 FY27 - the FY25 target was not met.
- Hostel - 600+ students, partial operational by FY26, full by FY27
Partial - At the Q4 FY25 PPT, the new G+2 hostel of 42,000 sq. ft. at the Cancer Institute, accommodating 600+ students, was to be partially operationalized by FY26 with revenues ₹1-1.25 cr and fully by FY27 with revenues ₹3.5 cr. ₹4 cr was spent on construction as of Q2 FY26, with no operational or revenue disclosure by Q1 FY27.
- Multi-Organ Transplant Unit - consultation by Q1 FY27
Missed - At the Q4 FY26 PPT, the Multi-Organ Transplant Unit with Gleneagles was to begin consultation and diagnostic services by Q1 FY27 from a dedicated floor, with full-scale transplants after State Govt approval. In Q1 FY27 the project had not started due to unclear state policy, and no consultation services were disclosed as started.
- Total FY27 capex - less than ₹15 cr
On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management stated total current-year capex, including ₹2-3 cr for bed unlock, would be "less than ₹15 cr". CWIP at Q1 FY27 stood at ₹3.97 cr, within plan with the year not yet complete.
- Main board migration - from SME to Main Board
On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management decided to migrate from the SME board: "We will be eligible after the month of July. We have initiated the process; we will migrate", reiterated as "asap" at the Q1 FY27 call and subject to regulatory approvals in the Q1 FY27 PPT. No migration was completed as of Q1 FY27, with the eligibility window just opened.
- 1,000-bed capacity - before 2030
Pending - At the Q2 FY26 call, the CFO stated a long-term ambition of a 1,000-bed company "definitely before 2030"; at Q4 FY26, asked if the target still held, the CFO said "Yes, sir, it still holds". Current capacity is 350 beds, with no material progress toward 1,000 beds disclosed.
- Capex for 200-bed expansion - not more than ₹10 cr, before FY2027
Partial - At the Q2 FY26 call, the CFO stated CAPEX for expansion to 200 beds would be completed before FY2027, not more than ₹10 cr, funded through internal accruals. CWIP moved from ₹1.94 cr FY25 to ₹1.76 cr FY26 and ₹3.97 cr at Q1 FY27, and Q4 FY26 guided current-year capex "less than ₹15 cr" including ₹2-3 cr for bed unlock - capex stayed under ₹10 cr, but bed capacity stood at 350 with the 200-bed expansion not completed.
- FY26 revenue guidance - ₹160 cr
Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, the CFO gave full-year FY26 revenue guidance of ₹160 crores. FY26 actual revenue was ₹173.5 cr, beating guidance by 8.4%.
- Promoter hospital merger - cashless, hopefully by FY26
Partial - At the Q2 FY26 call, management planned a cashless merger of the promoter entity's hospital into the company, with the CFO saying "Hopefully, it could be done, sir" by FY26; at Q4 FY26 this became "hopefully it should be done this financial year" (FY27). The merger was delayed by shareholder deaths and heirs not inheriting shares and was not completed as of Q1 FY27.
- Superspeciality additional 65 beds - operational before March 2026
Partial - At the Q2 FY26 call, the CFO stated the major portion of construction of the additional 65 beds was already done and "hopefully, it should be operational before March". Super-specialty capacity rose from 250 to 285 during FY26, including cardiac care expansion from 25 to 45 beds - 35 beds added against the 65 planned by the March 2026 horizon.
- Education vertical - 600+ capacity institute operational
On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management planned to operationalize a 600-plus capacity hospital and healthcare management institute in Ranchi, with courses to launch by FY28 per the Q4 FY26 PPT and expected capex of ₹8-10 cr in the coming fiscal year. ₹4 cr was spent on the hostel as of Q2 FY26 and a paramedical course is running, with the institute under construction and no operational disclosure yet.
- Bone Marrow Transplant Unit - operational next year (FY27)
On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management planned to launch a Bone Marrow Transplant Unit "next year" (FY27), with each procedure \~₹20 lakhs revenue; at Q4 FY26 approval was expected in 4-5 months and the unit by end of FY27. The facility was not live as of Q4 FY26 and remained pending only Jharkhand organ transplant policy approval at Q1 FY27, with no BMT revenue expected in FY27.
- Vision 2027 PAT margin - 13-15%
On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided FY26 PAT margin of 13-15% with ₹160 cr revenue and ₹200 cr FY27 revenue, and Vision 2027 carried a 13-15% PAT margin target; at Q4 FY26 the CFO said of the 13-15% FY27 target, "probably we should be able to achieve it". FY26 PAT margin was 10% and Q1 FY27 9.0%, still below the target floor with the horizon live until March 2027.
- Vision 2027 revenue - ₹200 cr
On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expressed confidence in meeting the Vision 2027 revenue projection of ₹200 crores, later raised to ₹260 cr for FY27 at Q4 FY26. FY26 revenue was ₹173.5 cr and Q1 FY27 ₹47.5 cr - TTM revenue of ₹184 cr annualizes to \~₹190 cr, on the trajectory toward the revised target.
- Super-specialty occupancy - 70% target by FY27
Pending - On the Q4 FY25 call, management said it targets 70% capacity utilization in the multispecialty hospital as part of its FY27 vision. Super-specialty occupancy was 56% in FY26 and 59% in Q1 FY27, still below target with the horizon running to March 2027.
- Cancer hospital occupancy - \~50% target
Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management targeted \~50% occupancy in the cancer hospital. Cancer occupancy was 30% in FY25, 42% in FY26 and 56% in Q1 FY27, exceeding the target.
- Peak revenue at full capacity - ₹300+ cr without further capex
Pending - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided that at full capacity of the current setup without further CAPEX, peak revenue of ₹300-plus crores is achievable. FY26 revenue was ₹173.5 cr on 350 beds, with the full-capacity scenario not yet reached.
- EBITDA margin - 23-25% (later not less than 21-25%)
Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided EBITDA margin of 23% to 25%, softened to "not less than 21% to 25%"; subsequent revisions included Vision 2027 at 25-27%, Vision 2028 at 23-25% and FY27 "at least 22%". FY26 EBITDA margin was 20%, with only Q3 FY26 (21.93%) touching 21%+; Q4 FY26 OPM was 17.06% and Q1 FY27 19.90%, leaving the guided floor unmet.
- Cancer hospital monthly revenue - \~₹6 cr in 2-2.5 years
On track - At the Q2 FY25 call, management foresaw \~₹6 crores monthly revenue from the cancer hospital in the coming 2-2.5 years. Cancer hospital FY26 revenue was ₹33 cr, a \~₹2.75 cr/month run-rate, with the horizon (to Mar-Sep 2027) not yet reached.
- Revenue target - ₹400 cr in next four years
On track - At the Q2 FY25 call, management targeted ₹400 crores revenue in the next four years, since restated as \~₹400 cr by FY2028 in the Vision 2028 roadmap and the Q4 FY26 PPT and at the Q1 FY27 call. FY26 revenue was ₹173.5 cr and Q1 FY27 ₹47.5 cr, with TTM growth of 36.59% on that trajectory.
- O&M / acquisition bed expansion - 500 O&M beds, 100 beds as soon as possible
Partial - At the Q2 FY25 call, management planned growth via acquisitions or Brownfield O&M, targeting 500 O&M beds long-term and 100 beds "as soon as possible" for \~₹10 cr; the 100-bed deal was to materialize in FY26, was delayed at Q2 FY26, moved to FY27 at Q4 FY26, and at Q1 FY27 a \~70-bed acquisition process had begun. No acquisition was completed and no O&M beds were added as of Q1 FY27, though due diligence and a \~70-bed target showed progress.
- Cancer-specific revenue - around ₹35 cr in FY26
Partial - At the Q2 FY25 call, management targeted around ₹35 crores for cancer specifically in FY26. Cancer hospital revenue reached ₹33 crores in FY26, short of the target by \~6%.
- Onco unit revenue - ₹20 cr by FY25 end
Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management targeted revenue of ₹20 crores from the Onco unit by end of FY25. Cancer hospital revenue grew from ₹20 crores in FY25 to ₹33 crores in FY26, meeting the target.
- Cancer hospital ARPOB - around ₹30,000 in next two years
Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided cancer hospital ARPOB to around ₹30,000 in the next two years, later raised at Q4 FY25 to \~45,000 matching HCG. Cancer ARPOB was ₹30,500 in FY25, ₹41,401 in H1 FY26, ₹37,428 in FY26 and ₹31,892 in Q1 FY27, above ₹30,000 in FY26 and Q1 FY27.
- Multispecialty ARPOB - cross ₹25,000 in next two years
On track - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided multispecialty ARPOB to cross ₹25,000 per bed in the next two years, with Q4 FY25 noting ₹20,000 "would be nice" but not immediately achievable and D10 targeting ₹25,000 via improved case mix. Super-specialty ARPOB was ₹23,020 in FY26 and ₹23,498 in Q1 FY27, crossing ₹25,000 only in Q4 FY26 at ₹26,091 before falling back.
- Bed capacity expansion - 300 to 500 beds by FY26 end
On track - At the Q2 FY25 call, management reiterated beds going from 300 to 500 by FY26 end, later reset to Vision 2027, revised to 315 to 500 by FY27 in the FY25 AR, confirmed as FY27 at Q2 FY26 and scaled to 500+ beds in the Vision 2028 roadmap. Total capacity was 350 beds at Q1 FY27, with the 100-bed acquisition and 70-bed promoter merger delayed but in progress toward the FY27 horizon.
- Cancer hospital expansion - 50 to 150 beds in next two years
On track - At the Q2 FY25 call, management aimed to expand the Cancer Hospital from 50 to 150 beds "finally in next two years", with infrastructure in place and additional capex of ₹1-2 cr (also cited ₹2-3 cr); revisions placed it in 2027, from 65 to 150 by end of FY27. The cancer hospital operated 65 beds as of Q1 FY27 with no additions yet, and FY27 bed additions remain planned.