Maiden Forgings Ltd Guidance Report - SOIC x StockScans Report
as of Jul 2026
- FY27 volume - reach \~42,000 tons
On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided that within FY27, the company should reach a quantity of about 42,000 tons. In the first two months of FY27, the company achieved 7,000 tons, annualizing to the \~42,000-ton run rate, though FY27 is still in progress.
- FY27 EBITDA margin - increase by at least 1-2%
Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided that within FY27, the EBITDA margin should go up by at least 1% to 2% from the FY26 base of 7.36%. FY27 has just begun, and no margin disclosure for Q1 FY27 is in our record.
- B2G segment - 20-25% of sales in the mid-term
On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided that 20% to 25% of sales should come from the B2G segment in the mid-term future. In H1 FY26, B2G contribution was around 1-2%, but the company secured multiple defence registrations and executed initial orders for HAL, BHEL, and NTPC.
- FY26 revenue growth - 30-35% from existing revenues
Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided a target of 30% to 35% revenue growth for FY26 from existing revenues. FY26 total income was ₹233.96 cr, a \~9.5% increase over FY25 total income of ₹213.57 cr, well below the 30-35% target.
- Main board migration - possibly in FY26
Pending - At the Q2 FY25 call, management stated migration to the main board of BSE and NSE was targeted for when a certain revenue level is reached, which they expected to possibly achieve in the next financial year. As of 14 Jul 2026, no disclosure confirms main board migration has been completed.
- 5-year target - ₹1,000 cr sales from listing date (April 2023)
On track - At the Q4 FY24 call, management reiterated the 5-year target of INR1,000 crores sales from the listing date of April 2023. Three years into the window, FY26 total income was ₹233.96 cr, essentially flat from FY23, and the ₹1,000 cr target would require a \~4.3x increase over the remaining two years.
- New plant operational by Diwali 2024
Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management stated the new plant was expected to be operational by Diwali, likely Oct-Nov 2024. Construction was completed and unit shifting was underway as of Q4 FY26, with operations expected by Q1 FY27, indicating progress but a significant delay versus the original timeline.
- Plant consolidation - land sale and net cash of ₹15-20 cr
Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided that consolidating two major plants into one could yield approximately INR15 crores to INR20 crores in net cash. The company finalized the agreement for the sale of the Unit II land and completed construction of the new plant, but shifting of the second unit was still ongoing as of Q4 FY26, and no disclosure confirms the ₹15-20 cr net cash outcome.
- EBITDA margin improvement - from \~10% to 12-13% within 2-3 years
Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided that the EBITDA margin should improve from about 10% to anywhere between 12% to 13% within two to three years, implying FY25-FY26. FY23 EBITDA margin was 10.09%, but it declined to 9.32% in FY25 and 7.36% in FY26, never approaching the 12-13% target.
- Sustained 20-25% annual growth for FY25-26
Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided sustained per annum 20%-25% growth for FY25-26. FY25 total income was ₹213.57 cr, a decline of \~10% YoY, and FY26 total income was ₹233.96 cr, growth of \~9.5% YoY, with neither year achieving 20% growth.
- Stainless steel and specialized steel combined segment - increase to \~25% of total in FY24
Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided the combined segment would increase to approximately 25% in the "current ongoing financial year" (FY24). In the Q4 FY24 call, management stated value-added products contributed 11-12% of revenue and did not confirm the combined segment reached the 25% target.
- FY24 capex - 8-9% of revenue
Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided that capex in FY24 should be around 8% to 9% of revenue. FY24 total income was ₹237.31 cr, implying a target of \~₹19.0-21.4 cr, but the only disclosed FY24 capex was around INR8 crores before the IPO, or \~3.4% of revenue.
- Oil tempered wire project - operational in H2 FY24
Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided that the oil tempered wire project would be done in the last six months of FY24. The project was subsequently deferred to FY25 at the Q2 FY24 call, and our record holds no disclosure of it being completed or becoming operational through FY26.
- FY24 top-line and bottom-line growth - 20% target
Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided a 20% kind of growth in both top line and bottom line for FY24. FY24 total income was ₹237.31 cr, a 7.3% YoY increase, and FY24 PAT was ₹9.72 cr, a 1.19% YoY increase, both materially short of the 20% target.
- Pneumatic nail plant - contribution to grow from \~1.5% to 15-20% of total revenue
Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided that the pneumatic nail plant's contribution would grow from 1-1.5% to 15-20% of total revenue. In FY24, pneumatic nails contributed approximately 5-7% of volume, and our record holds no disclosure of the revenue contribution reaching 15-20% through FY26.
- Credit rating upgrade - from BBB to A within five years
Pending - In an announcement dated 2nd April 2026, promoters committed to upgrade the credit rating from BBB to A within the next five years. As of April 2026, Crisil Ratings reaffirmed the long-term rating at Crisil BBB/Stable, and the five-year window extends to approximately 2031.