# 1. Financial Performance ## A. Key Figures * **Revenue:** **₹12,500 Cr** (Q1 FY'26) · **+10% YoY** consolidated * **EBITDA:** **₹2,482 Cr** (Q1 FY'26) (+3%) · Margin at **7%** (–50 bps QoQ) * **PAT:** **₹2,100 Cr** (Bajaj Auto, +5% YoY) · **₹2,210 Cr** consolidated (+14%) * **Spares Revenue:** **~₹1,600 Cr** (record quarterly high) * **Free Cash Flow:** **₹1,200 Cr** generated in Q1, surplus cash ~**₹17,000 Cr** * **BACL AUM & Profit:** **₹12,000 Cr** AUM · **₹102 Cr PAT** (Q1) ## B. Revenue Growth * **Top-Line Resilience:** Strong revenue performance ranked among the top three quarters historically, achieved despite soft domestic demand, currency volatility, EV supply constraints, and pricing pressures. * **Spares Momentum:** Spares segment delivered record quarterly revenue, reflecting sustained aftermarket strength and customer loyalty. * **Consolidated Growth Driver:** BACL’s standout contribution—nearly doubling last year’s full-year profit—was the key engine behind 14% consolidated PAT growth. ## C. Profitability Trends * **Margin Resilience Amid Inflation:** Commodity and regulatory cost pressures (aluminum, steel, OBD II-B) impacted margins by 70 bps, but were partially offset by cost savings and favorable steel settlements. * **EV Margin Inflection:** The electric portfolio is now approaching **double-digit EBITDA margins**, with select Chetak models on the new platform achieving **positive unit-level EBITDA**, marking a turning point in EV economics. * **Mixed Margin Drivers:** Sequential margin decline driven by adverse dollar realization, while YoY contraction of 50 bps was due to higher other expenses despite currency benefits. * **Near-Term Margin Outlook:** Flat net cost-price impact expected next quarter; current quarter seeing tailwinds from favorable rupee depreciation. * **BACL Profitability:** Credit arm remains highly profitable with **~₹100–105 Cr quarterly PAT** on a **₹12,000 Cr AUM**, supported by digital efficiency and credit penetration above 40%. ## D. Cash Flow Generation * **Robust Cash Conversion:** Generated ₹1,200 Cr in free cash flow, reinforcing strong operational cash generation despite external headwinds. ## E. Balance Sheet Strength * **Strategic Investment in BACL:** Infused additional ₹300 Cr into BACL, bringing total investment to ₹2,700 Cr, aligned with scaling of a high-return financial services arm. --- # 2. Volume & Mix Trends ## A. Key Figures * **Export Volumes:** **+16%** Q1 YoY * **Export Revenue:** **All-time high** (>$500M) despite volumes **20–25% below FY '22** * **Pulsar Exports:** **+21%+** Q1 YoY * **Nigeria Exports:** **14,000–15,000 units** currently (from peak of **50,000**) * **Overall Export Volume:** **~180,000 units**, near-record level ## B. Domestic Volumes * **Flat Domestic Market:** Industry volumes flat YoY in Q1, with **125cc+ segment outperforming 100cc**; early fiscal growth derailed by softness post-April. * **Regional Divergence:** **North and Central regions grew**, while **South and East declined**, with **Uttar Pradesh showing double-digit growth** amid broader regional imbalances. * **Rural Demand Recovery:** Improvement seen in **larger rural areas**, but **deep rural demand remains weak**, and **no meaningful shift from 100cc to higher cc bikes** due to tighter credit. ## C. Export Performance * **Strong Export Fundamentals:** Record revenue driven by **richer product mix**, **premiumization (Dominar, KTM revival)**, and **favorable dollar realizations**, offsetting inflation and currency headwinds. * **Geographic Resilience:** **Latin America and Africa** showing upward trends; **despite 40,000-unit gap from Nigeria’s decline**, performance in other markets pushed exports to **highest non-Nigeria level ever**. * **Market-Specific Dynamics:** **Africa driven by commercial users (95%)**, while **Latin America and Southeast Asia favor 250cc+ lifestyle bikes**, contrasting with India’s commuting focus. ## D. Product Mix Impact * **Revenue Growth via Mix Shift:** Flat domestic volumes offset by **positive mix**, including **double-digit growth in premium motorcycles, CVs, and Chetak**, delivering **highest-ever Q1 domestic revenue**. * **Urban-Rural Overlap in 100cc Segment:** The 100cc segment remains **equally relevant in urban areas**, with **no revival observed** despite partial rural recovery. --- # 3. Product & Segment Performance ## A. Key Figures * **Probiking Production:** **~26,000 units** domestic (+20% YoY) * **Chetak Sales Growth:** **>100% YoY**, capturing **~50% of industry’s incremental volume**; market share up to **21%** from 12% * **EV Revenue Contribution:** **>20%** of domestic revenue * **3-Wheeler Run Rate:** **>100,000 units** for eight consecutive quarters * **E-Auto Market Share:** **>35%** in Q1, securing pole position ## B. Motorcycle Sales * **Strategic Share Reallocation:** Market share dynamics reflect deliberate shift—**losses in low-margin 100cc segment** offset by **gains in 125cc+**, where share rose to 15% on product and pricing actions. * **Growth Anchored in 125cc+ Segment:** Remains core focus, supported by new Pulsar variants, targeted campaigns, and plans for an **affordable 125cc model** to bridge into 100–110cc demand. * **Product-Market Fit Refined:** Quick recovery in commuter segment after launch of **single-seat Pulsar variants**, addressing prior competitiveness gap. * **Divergent Regional Demand:** Dominar sells **4x more in Mexico than India**, highlighting stronger appetite for performance bikes in Latin America. * **Global Premium Strategy:** Brazil entry via 400cc models prioritizes brand credibility over volume, targeting premium niches amid mature competition. ## C. EV Portfolio Progress * **Chetak Gains Leadership in Premium EV Scooters:** Now holds **over 31% share in >₹1 lakh segment**, driven by expanded network, new 35 series, and full transition to floorboard battery platform boosting profitability. * **EV Scale and Mix Advantages:** Despite supply constraints (60–75% of plan), EVs contribute over **20% of domestic revenue**, with leadership in both e-2W and e-3W segments. * **Rural Adoption Constraints:** EV uptake lags in regions like Bihar due to infrastructure, travel patterns, and socio-demographic factors, mirroring scooter penetration trends. ## D. 3-Wheeler Business * **Dual-Engine Growth:** Commercial 3-wheeler industry grew 11% YoY on back of **e-auto volumes nearly doubling**, while ICE maintains **75% market share**. * **Export Diversification Underway:** Strong demand in Philippines (**19% share at 2,000–2,500 units/month**), Africa, and Latin America; rebuilding post-Sri Lanka ban that previously affected **60–70% of exports**. * **New Product Pipeline:** E-rickshaw launch targeted for mid-August into **40,000-unit monthly market**, offering premium alternative to lead-acid models. ## E. Premium Brand Growth * **Record Premium Performance:** Quarter marked by all-time highs in export retail sales (ex-Nigeria), commercial vehicle exports, and premium bike sales. * **Brand-Aligned Product Launches:** Triumph Scrambler 400XC and KTM Enduro 390 R reinforce adventure/dual-sport DNA, enhancing appeal in big bike segment. * **Dominar Validation:** Strong customer acceptance confirms viability of premium strategy, with KTM and Triumph increasingly aligned to global brand essence. --- # 4. Manufacturing & Supply Chain ## A. Key Figures * **Sales Volume (Bajaj Brazil):** **7,000 units** (quarterly) * **Production Capacity (Current):** **30,000 units/year** (up from 20,000) * **Target Capacity:** **50,000 units/year** (by Q4) · **100,000 units/year** (by 2027–2028) * **Capex (Q1):** **₹100 Cr** · **₹600–700 Cr** planned for remainder of year * **Export Resumption:** KTM motorcycle exports from India restored after dropping to zero ## B. Production Capacity & Expansion * **Strategic Capacity Ramp-Up:** Production scaled to 30,000 units annually with a clear path to 50,000 by Q4 and a long-term target of 100,000 by 2027–2028, executed in calibrated phases due to **6-month lead times** per expansion. * **Global Manufacturing Leverage:** Bajaj Brazil sales at 7,000 units in the quarter, with capacity expansion underway in Q2 to support sustained international growth. * **Export Recovery:** KTM Austria production restart enables resumption of KTM motorcycle exports from India, reversing prior zero-export status; these shipments had historically represented **5% to 6% of total exports**. * **Balanced Capex Allocation:** Full-year capex set at ₹700–800 Cr, with **equal investment in EV capabilities and ICE innovation**, signaling dual-track technology strategy. ## C. EV Supply Constraints * **Near-Term Operating Leverage Risk:** QoQ performance hinges on EV supply execution, with current fulfillment expectations at **50% to 60%** for electric two-wheelers and **70% to 80%** for three-wheelers, though subject to change. --- # 5. Dealer & Distribution Network ## A. Key Figures * **Triumph Network:** **130 stores** across **80 cities** * **Chetak Experience Centers:** **80–90%** operated by existing Bajaj dealers * **Dealer Allocation:** **65%** of Triumph dealerships and **50%** of KTM dealerships allocated to existing dealers * **Overseas Growth:** **27%** Bajaj growth in top 30 markets vs. **17%** industry growth (25 of 30 markets) ## B. Dealer Integration * **Premium-First Foundation:** Network built on high-quality, scalable infrastructure aligned with global peers, avoiding rapid scale to ensure **stable dealer economics** in the "good green zone". * **Strong Emotional Branding:** High engagement via **exclusive adventure programs** (e.g., fully booked Ladakh tour in 48 hours) and **gender-inclusive racing initiatives** driving passion in key markets. * **Cross-Segment Leverage:** Existing 3-wheeler dealers successfully transitioning to motorcycle and premium brands, enabled by **integrated corporate network model** offering five business lines per dealer. ## C. Network Expansion * **Strategic Dealer Onboarding:** Prioritization of ambition, funding, and capability in allocating Triumph and KTM outlets, with significantly higher reuse of existing dealers for Triumph. * **High Integration Efficiency:** Over 80% of Chetak centers run by incumbent dealers, reflecting strong alignment and **low incremental distribution cost**. ## D. Geographic Coverage * **Outperformance in Core Markets:** Strong double-digit growth momentum in LatAm and Asia, significantly exceeding industry trends in Bajaj’s top 30 overseas markets. * **Regional Divergence:** Persistent challenges in select African markets, notably Nigeria, despite broad emerging market expansion. --- # 6. Risks & Supply Chain ## A. Key Figures * **Production Shortfall:** **50%** Chetak (July) · **25–30%** e-autos (current quarter) * FX Realization: ₹85.6/USD avg (down ₹1 QoQ) · dipped to ₹85.2/USD in May ## B. HRE Magnet Shortage * **Severe Production Impact:** HRE magnet shortages caused sharp production shortfalls in July, with Chetak volumes halved and e-autos down a quarter to a third, though **August expected to improve slightly**. * **Multi-Pronged Supply Fix:** Three initiatives underway to reduce HRE dependency: substitution with LRE from China and non-China sources, and development of **ferrite-based, non-rare earth solutions**. * **Cost Risk Contained:** Rare earth magnets represent a small portion of BOM; alternative sourcing **not expected to drive significant cost inflation**. ## C. ABS Implementation * **Regulatory Drag on Volumes:** Mandatory ABS for sub-125cc motorcycles faces complex supply chain alignment, with industry estimates pointing to **12–24 months** for full rollout, contributing to suppressed industry volumes below 2018–2019 peaks. * **Competitive & Macro Pressures:** Weak industry performance driven by **early monsoon onset** and **urban inflation**, particularly in rental costs, which dented consumer purchasing power and triggered **tactical postponement of purchases**. ## D. Currency Volatility * **FX Drag Turns Tailwind:** Weaker dollar led to **₹86/USD average realization** (down ₹1 QoQ), creating a modest revenue and margin headwind; however, recent INR softness suggests **FX will be a tailwind next quarter**. * **Minimal US Tariff Exposure:** Exports to the US (KTM, Triumph) represent **<1% of total revenue**, insulating the company from global tariff shifts. * **Demand Timing Shifts:** Consumer purchase delays linked to **festive deal expectations, e-commerce events (e.g., Black Friday)**, and seasonality—though relative impact of each factor remains indeterminate. * **Structural Barriers in Brazil:** Despite being a top-five global market, Brazil remains difficult to penetrate due to **stringent regulations, 90% incumbent dominance**, and **logistical challenges from its scale**. * **Cost Headwinds Mounting:** Regulatory and insurance cost increases are eroding savings, making even **₹500/unit reductions** exceptionally difficult to achieve. --- # 7. Guidance & Outlook ## A. Key Figures * **Electric Scooter Volumes:** 50%–60% of plan * **Electric 3-Wheeler Volumes:** 70%–80% of plan * **BACL Book Size:** ₹18,000–19,000 Cr projected by year-end ## B. Volume Projections * **Near-Term Volume Headwinds:** Electric vehicle demand below expectations, particularly ahead of the festive season, has led to underperformance against volume plans. * **Recovery Timeline:** Major scale-up in EV volumes expected between **February and May**, contingent on market conditions and regulatory clarity on **driving rules**. * **BACL Growth Trajectory:** Book size on track for significant expansion, with a corresponding **increase in profit run rate** signaling improved earnings power. ## C. Margin Expectations * **Margin Normalization:** Margins expected to revert toward FY'25 average levels, with **dollar realization tailwinds** likely reinvested into competitive initiatives rather than retained. * **Strategic Reinvestment:** Company plans to use margin headroom for **selective competitive investments**, targeting sustainable positioning over short-term gains. ## D. Strategic Priorities * **KTM Restructuring Complete:** Insolvency proceedings concluded with binding court approval on **16th June 2025**, no creditor objections, and full exit from legal oversight—paving way for operational normalcy. * **Regulatory Approvals on Track:** Significant progress in securing merger control clearances, with expectations to finalize remaining approvals **within the next couple of months**. * **Post-Approval Strategy:** Plans to take **more controlling position** in KTM, exercise call options, and focus on **financial discipline** and **sustainable value creation**. * **Balanced Growth Framework:** Prioritizes aligning **market share, profitability, brand equity, and growth**—rejecting aggressive share grabs that risk long-term health, especially in price-sensitive markets like Brazil. * **EV Roadmap:** Aims to **resolve supply chain constraints within 6–9 months** to restore momentum in electric vehicles. * **Long-Term Market Share View:** No defined steady-state targets yet; meaningful discussions expected by **2026–2027**, following product playbook refinement.