Bajaj Auto Ltd Q2 FY2026 Concall Summary & Transcript Notes

Source transcript PDF: https://www.stockscans.in/document/0wf3j3qqcvw3o4zmfq5tjvmr.pdf

# 1. Financial Performance

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Revenue from Operations:** **₹15,000 Cr** (all-time high, +14% YoY) · **Consolidated Revenue:** **₹16,800 Cr** (+19% YoY)
   *   **PAT:** **₹2,500 Cr** standalone (+24% YoY, +12% adj.) · **Consolidated PAT:** **₹2,100 Cr** (+53% YoY)
   * EBITDA: >₹3,000 Cr (record high, +15% YoY) · EBITDA Margin: 20.5% (multi-year high, +20 bps YoY, +70 bps QoQ)
   *   **Three-Wheeler Sales:** **145,000 units** (record volume) · **Spares Revenue:** **₹1,800 Cr** (+21% YoY)
   *   **Free Cash Flow (H1):** **~₹4,500 Cr** · **Surplus Cash:** **>₹14,000 Cr** (post ₹6,000 Cr dividend & ₹2,000 Cr strategic investments)

## B. Revenue Growth
   *   **Record Top-Line Performance:** All-time high revenue driven by **strong volume growth** and a **richer product mix**, with pricing and FX tailwinds enhancing realizations.
   *   **Three-Wheeler Leadership:** Record unit sales and **75% ICE market share** underscore sustained dominance and operational strength in a core segment.
   *   **Spares Momentum:** Spares business delivered **strong double-digit growth**, reaching new revenue highs and contributing meaningfully to profitability.
   *   **Export Realization Tailwind:** **Dollar realization improved to 1**, significantly boosting export margins versus prior periods.

## C. Profit Margins
   *   **Margin Expansion Achieved:** EBITDA margin reached a multi-year high, driven by **favorable currency impact**, **operating leverage**, and **margin-accretive mix**, offsetting **40 bps net cost inflation** from commodities.
   *   **Cost & Investment Balancing:** Rising expenses reflect **volume-related costs** and **strategic outlays in brand and R&D**, with operational efficiency compensating for inflation and investments.
   *   **Consolidated PAT Outperformance:** Disproportionate growth in consolidated PAT versus standalone reflects **profitability turnaround in Brazil and BACL**, and **equity accounting gains from KTM and PMAG**.
   *   **PLI Incentives Normalized:** Government incentives now treated as **business as usual**, with stable accruals supporting baseline profitability.

## D. Cash Flow
   *   **Robust Cash Generation:** Strong H1 free cash flow reinforces capital discipline and internal funding capacity despite high dividend payout.

## E. Balance Sheet
   *   **Strategic Capital Deployment:** Major investments include **₹1,500 Cr** for **KTM acquisition via BAIH BV** and **₹500 Cr** infusion into **BACL** to scale financing arm.
   *   **Structural Ownership Shift:** BAIH BV now controls **100% of Pierer Bajaj AG**, making it a **wholly owned step-down subsidiary** of Bajaj Auto, enhancing strategic alignment and consolidation.

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# 2. Volume & Revenue Mix

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Export Volumes:** **550,000 units** (Q2) (+24%) · **>200,000 units** (October)
   *   **Exports Revenue:** **~$600 million** (record high)
   *   **Domestic Revenue:** **Record high** (driven by premium motorcycles & CVs)
   *   **E-Autos Growth:** **>50%** (October, YoY)

## B. Domestic vs Export
   *   **Record Export Performance:** Strong volume and revenue growth driven by **broad-based regional expansion**, with Latin America hitting milestones and Africa/Asia delivering double-digit gains.
   *   **Market Diversification Success:** Significant shift from Nigeria (down ~50%) to a more balanced export footprint, supported by sustained market development in Philippines, Mexico, Ghana, and others.
   *   **Favorable Macro & Mix Tailwinds:** Record export revenue fueled by weaker rupee, richer product mix, and **nearly 70% growth in commercial vehicle exports**, with strong demand for Pulsar and KTM portfolio.
   *   **Sustainable Trajectory:** Diversified growth model de-risked from single-market dependence; outlook remains strong over next 12–18 months despite seasonal softness expected in early 2025.

## C. Motorcycle vs Three-Wheeler
   *   **Domestic Rebound Post-GST Impact:** Industry decline reversed during festive season on back of **suppressed demand and 10-percentage-point GST cut** (28% → 18%) for sub-350cc bikes and CVs.
   *   **Three-Wheeler Segment Divergence:** ICE three-wheelers returned to growth; E-autos maintain strong momentum despite moderation, while E-Ricks declined due to **RTO restrictions and consumer up-trading**.

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# 3. Product & Segment Performance

## A. Key Figures
   *   **EV Revenue:** **₹1,700 Cr+** (18% of domestic)
   *   **BACL PAT:** **₹132 Cr** (+29% QoQ, 2nd profitable quarter)
   *   **Pro-Biking BU Sales:** **>30,000 units** (+30% YoY)
   *   **CV Segment Exports:** **+67%** (QoQ) · **KTM Austria Sales:** +10% (QoQ)
   *   **E-Rick Sales:** **500 units** across 8 cities

## B. Pulsar & Premium Models
   *   **Pricing Discipline in Premium Segment:** Absorbed full impact of **40% GST hike** on >350cc motorcycles by maintaining or reducing prices to ensure market stability.

## C. Electric Portfolio
   *   **EV Momentum Builds:** Electric portfolio now contributes nearly **20% of domestic revenue** and has achieved **double-digit EBITDA margins**, driven by strong three-wheeler mix and improved Chetak unit economics.
   *   **Chetak Turns Corner:** Key Chetak variants have transitioned from EBITDA losses to **near EBITDA neutrality**, marking a major inflection in two-wheeler EV profitability.
   *   **E-Rick Launch Success:** Early traction with **500 units sold** validates product-market fit; scaled rollout planned in coming months with ambitions to dominate evolving last-mile segment.
   *   **Product Pipeline & Differentiation:** Portfolio expansion to **four E-auto models** enables granular use-case segmentation; new last-mile solutions in development for launch within 1–2 years.
   *   **Compelling EV Economics:** Operating costs for electric two-wheelers are **~1/10th** of ICE scooters (₹0.30–₹3/km), reinforcing long-term value proposition despite short-term demand fluctuations.

## D. KTM & Triumph
   *   **Record Pro-Biking Performance:** Unit sales hit all-time high on **strong double-digit growth**, fueled by new KTM models and expanding Triumph appeal.
   *   **India-Made Global Potential:** **Nearly 20,000 units exported to KTM** this quarter, underscoring growing capability and future export scalability under the KTM brand.
   *   **Structural Shift Ahead:** Expected **end of equity-method accounting** for KTM/PMAG; transition to full consolidation pending regulatory approval.
   *   **Leadership & Strategy Reset:** Supervisory boards to be reconstituted with Bajaj nominees replacing Pierer representatives; aggressive recalibration of Triumph/KTM models underway to offset lower GST benefits.

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# 4. Manufacturing & Capacity

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Production Volume:** **8,000 units** sold in Brazil (Q2) · **>100,000 units/quarter** targeted in three-wheelers
   *   **Supply Chain Timeline:** Chetak supply **fully restored by October** (ahead of schedule)

## B. Production Volume
   *   **Brazil Expansion Momentum:** Strong Q2 sales driven by increased localization, including **in-house welding and painting**, signaling improved cost control and supply resilience.
   *   **Three-Wheeler Capacity Buildout:** Aggressive ramp-up underway to meet demand in both ICE and recovering EV segments, with plans to exceed **100,000 units per quarter** reflecting confidence in market share gains.
   *   **KTM Production Resumes:** Output restarted end-July post-restructuring, enabling renewed contribution from premium motorcycle segment.

## C. EV Supply Chain
   *   **Chetak Supply Chain Recovery Accelerated:** Full restoration achieved by October—earlier than expected—supported by shift to **LRE-based components** and diversified supplier base.
   *   **Channel Replenishment Underway:** Despite operational normalization, inventory rebuilding across distribution network continues to meet pent-up demand.

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# 5. Customer & Market Share

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Retail Sales:** **>3,000 units** in Brazil (Oct) · **All-time high** in motorcycle volume & revenue (festive)
   *   **Chetak Market Position:** **#1 in Vahan Registrations** (Oct) · **390 exclusive stores**, **4,000 PoS across 800 cities**
   *   **BACL Performance:** **>2 lakh customers** added (Q2) · **AUM >₹14,000 Cr** (now nearing ₹15,000 Cr) · **PAT >₹132 Cr** (Q2)
   *   **Financing Penetration:** **~70%** in motorcycles · **90–95%** in three-wheelers
   * Overseas Growth: **+14%** in top 30 emerging markets · sales grew **1.5x industry pace**

## B. Retail Performance
   *   **Record Festive Demand:** Motorcycles delivered all-time high performance driven by strong Pulsar portfolio uptake, new sports variants, and successful marketing campaigns.
   *   **Chetak Leadership Reinforced:** Regained #1 position on back of expanded retail footprint and upcoming new model launch to sustain momentum.
   *   **Emerging Premiumization Trend:** Post-GST shift toward higher-value products observed, particularly in 150cc+ sport segments among upgrading customers.

## C. Financing Penetration
   *   **BACL Scaling Rapidly:** Financing arm added significant customer base and expanded AUM beyond ₹14,000 Cr, supported by diversified funding and strong penetration in core segments.
   *   **Strategic Investment Continues:** Bajaj Auto has committed ₹500 Cr to BACL with further investments planned for FY26–FY27 to fuel growth.
   *   **Minimal Discounting Discipline:** Company avoids aggressive price cuts, focusing instead on tactical regional and financing support, especially avoiding the competitive 100cc-and-below segment.

## D. Market Share Trends
   *   **Overseas Share Gains:** Top 30 markets grew 14%, with Bajaj outpacing industry by 5x, signaling clear market share capture in LATAM, Asia, and Africa.
   *   **Domestic Recovery Underway:** Halted market share erosion in 125cc+ segment and began regaining share in October, led by premium Pulsar variants.
   *   **Three-Wheeler Resilience:** ICE/CNG autos remain economically dominant despite e-auto growth; GST cut improved payback, stabilizing demand outlook near 80% market share.
   *   **E-Auto Growth Moderating:** Expansion slowing from 75% to ~50% due to longer 19-month payback vs. 13 months for RE CNG, affecting buyer preference.
   *   **Supply-Led Share Volatility:** Temporary loss of #1 e-auto position in Q2 attributed to supply constraints, with recovery expected in Q3.

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# 6. Risks & Supply Constraints

## A. Key Figures
   *   **EV Segment Performance:** **~15% below plan** due to supply constraints and capacity limits
   *   **Electric Two-Wheeler Industry Volume:** **~100,000 units/month** despite magnet shortages
   *   **Chetak Delivery Shortfall:** **~50%** due to high demand and supply disruptions
   *   **E-Rick Market Size:** **40,000 units**, now shrinking
   *   **CNG Motorcycle Demand Trend:** Slowed to **single-digit growth** post-surge
   *   **ABS Cost Impact:** **₹2,000–₹3,000 per unit** cost increase
   *   **Mexico Import Tariff:** General rate at **35%**, Bajaj eligible for **5%** preferential rate
   * BACL Capital & Returns: 19.8% capital risk adequacy ratio, 17.4% RoE (H1), with AAA/A1+ credit ratings

## B. Component Shortages
   *   **EV Output Constrained:** Underperformance in EV segment driven by **e-component shortages** and **bottlenecks in widebody 7012 production**, despite peak export-driven utilization.
   *   **Magnet Supply Crisis:** Sector-wide **HRE magnet shortage** disrupted Chetak deliveries and slowed electric three-wheeler growth, previously the fastest-growing segment.
   *   **Demand-Supply Mismatch:** Strong post-launch demand for Chetak outpaced supply, exacerbating delivery delays.
   *   **ABS Capacity Crunch:** Current ABS production capacity is inadequate across 100cc and 125cc segments, prompting calls for **phased regulatory implementation**.

## C. CNG Infrastructure
   *   **CNG Adoption Hurdles:** Momentum stalled due to **inconsistent fuel pressure** affecting range and savings, particularly for **heavy-duty users**, despite initial demand surge.
   *   **Infrastructure Gaps:** Limited CNG network coverage and **pipeline pressure issues** remain key barriers, though government upgrades are underway.
   *   **E-Rick Market Decline:** Market contraction driven by **urban movement bans**, **stricter registration norms**, and congestion policies in states like Uttar Pradesh.

## D. Regulatory Changes
   *   **Acquisition Milestone Achieved:** All major regulatory approvals secured, including from **Austria, six jurisdictions, and Turkey (18th Sept)**; final hurdle is **European Commission review** with decision expected by **10th November** (deemed approval if no objection within 25 days).
   *   **Call Option Execution Imminent:** Notices served in **June** and **yesterday**, with stock exchange intimation filed; full 50% stake acquisition via call option contingent on EC approval and must be completed within **20 days** of clearance.
   *   **No Mandatory Bid Triggered:** Austrian Takeover Commission ruled that **BAIH BV need not make a public offer** if full 50% stake is acquired through the May '25 call option.
   *   **Tariff Advantage Secured:** Bajaj will benefit from **5% import duty in Mexico** versus 35% standard rate, a concession granted due to local investments—shared by only **one other (Mexican) player**.
   *   **GST Impact Absorbed:** Despite adverse rate cuts impacting premium KTM/Triumph models, pricing was held stable with **strong festival season customer support** maintained.

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# 7. Guidance & Outlook

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Export Growth Target:** **15–20%** in superior markets
   *   **EV Demand Recovery:** Expected rebound to **15%–20% growth** in 1–2 months

## B. Growth Forecast
   *   **Medium-Term Upside:** Industry growth seen improving by **6 to 8 percentage points**, supported by new Pulsar variants launching in the next 2–3 months and favorable policy tailwinds.
   *   **Policy Catalyst:** GST rate cut expected to lift ICE auto growth by **~5 percentage points**, driving upgrading behavior and boosting demand in key segments.
   *   **Strategic Restraint on KTM Austria:** Public commentary limited pending regulatory approval and change of control; turnaround plans for Bajaj Mobility AG to be detailed post-clearance.
   *   **CNG Outlook:** Market development expected on a **long, slow curve** with gradual, steady improvement over time.

## C. Product Launches
   *   **Upcoming ICE Launches:** Three new Pulsar models to launch in **December, March, and May**, reinforcing portfolio strength in the 125cc+ segment.
   *   **Aspirational Brand Momentum:** KTM and Triumph benefiting from **GST-driven upgrades**, with refreshed portfolios and new launches planned to capture premium demand.
   *   **Non-Pulsar Brand:** Launch expected **sooner than later**, though no specific timeline provided.

## D. Margin Expectations
   *   **PLI Dependency:** EV three-wheeler margins currently elevated due to **incentive-supported pricing**, with strategic focus on building organic profitability ahead of scheme phase-out by 2028.
   *   **Margin Rebuilding Path:** R&D and cost rationalization initiatives underway, expected to yield market impact in **~2 years**, aligning with post-PLI margin sustainability goals.