Bajaj Housing Finance Ltd Q3 FY2026 Concall Summary & Transcript Notes

Source transcript PDF: https://www.stockscans.in/document/l9cngj5zkdzwq8gj8itfxbok.pdf

# 1. Financial Performance

## A. Key Figures
   *   **NIM (Q3 FY'25):** **₹963 Cr** (+19% YoY)
   *   **NTI Growth (Q3 FY'25):** **+24%** YoY
   *   **9M FY'26 PPOP Growth:** **+24%** (NTI +24%, OPEX +20%)
   *   **PAT Growth:** **+21%** YoY (Q3 FY'25) · **+20%** (9M FY'26)
   *   **NIM (Q3 FY'26):** **4%** (flat YoY and QoQ)
   * OPEX to NTI Ratio: 19% (Q3 FY'26) · 19.9% (9M FY'26)
   * ROA: 2.3% annualized (Q3 FY'26) · 2.3% (9M FY'26)
   * ROE: 12.3% annualized (Q3 FY'26) · 12% (9M FY'26)
   *   **Net Worth:** **₹21,838 Cr** (as of Dec 31, '25)
   * **CAR:** **23.15%** · **PBC:** **61.37%**

## B. Revenue Growth
   *   **Robust Top-Line Momentum:** Strong double-digit growth in NIM and NTI driven by higher assignment income and fee-based revenue streams.
   *   **Sustained Operating Leverage:** 9-month PPOP expanded in line with revenue, reflecting disciplined cost management despite rising input pressures.

## C. Profit Margins
   *   **Stable Core Margins:** NIM held flat at 4% despite sequential gross spread contraction of 12 bps, supported by COF optimization.
   *   **Efficiency Gains Accelerate:** OPEX to NTI improved meaningfully to 19% in Q3 and 9% for 9M, signaling structural operating leverage.
   *   **Margin Guidance Revised:** Full-year NTI compression now expected at **8–10 bps**, down from prior 15–20 bps, due to stronger Q3 assignment income.
   *   **One-Time Cost Impact:** Exceptional item of **₹1 Cr** recorded for gratuity provision linked to Labor Codes implementation.

## D. Balance Sheet
   *   **Healthy Capitalization:** Strong capital adequacy with CAR at 15% and PBC at 37%, well above regulatory minimums, supporting future growth.

## E. Cash Flow
   *   **Efficiency Trend Intact:** Sequential improvement in OPEX to NTI by 80 bps underscores ongoing cost discipline and operational scaling.

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# 2. Loan Book & Disbursements

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Disbursements:** **₹16,545 Cr** Q3 FY'26 (+32%) · **₹12,571 Cr** Q3 FY'25
   * AUM: ₹1.33 lakh Cr Q3 FY'26 (+23%) · ₹6,664 Cr quarterly addition
   *   **Product AUM Growth:** **18%** Home Loans · **32%** LAP · **39%** LRD · **18%** Developer Financing
   * **Assignment Volume:** **₹3,470 Cr** post-acquisition loans assigned · **~2.5–2.6%** of ₹1,33,000 Cr balance sheet

## B. Disbursement Growth
   *   **Strong Origination Momentum:** Robust 32% YoY disbursement growth driven by sustained demand and expanded lending activity across segments.
   *   **Origination Composition:** Monthly originations of **325–350 Cr** include both fresh loans and balance transfers, though mix remains undisclosed.
   *   **Forward-Looking Target:** Management targets **₹600 Cr in disbursements over 12–18 months**, with a strategic focus on the affordable housing segment.
   *   **Conversion Efficiency:** Approval and disbursement conversion rates remain healthy at **55–60%** and **70–75%**, respectively, though segment-specific variability exists.

## C. AUM Trends
   *   **Divergence in Growth Metrics:** Despite strong disbursement growth, AUM expanded at a slower pace due to **elevated attrition**, highlighting structural decoupling between flows and balance sheet growth.
   *   **Portfolio Diversification:** AUM growth led by **non-home loan segments**, particularly LRD and LAP, reflecting strategic expansion beyond core products.
   *   **No Mechanical Link:** Management emphasizes **no consistent correlation** expected between disbursement and AUM growth going forward due to behavioral and structural dynamics.

## D. Portfolio Mix
   *   **Strategic Rebalancing:** Portfolio mix shifted sequentially, with **increased exposure to LRD and LAP** and reduced shares in Home Loans and Construction Finance.
   *   **Regulatory Compliance:** **71%** of the portfolio qualifies as Individual Housing Loans (IHL) under NHB guidelines, maintaining alignment with regulatory definitions.

## E. Assignment Activity
   *   **Opportunistic Liability Management:** Assignments executed selectively to optimize capital and match ALM objectives, with **no fixed annual volume target**.
   *   **Q3 Surge Driven by PBC Needs:** Elevated assignment in Q3 was necessitated by **disproportionate non-home loan growth**, requiring rebalancing to meet Priority Sector Lending (PBC) criteria.
   *   **Dynamic Q4 Outlook:** Future assignment levels will be **adjusted dynamically** based on relative growth trends in home vs. non-home loan AUM.
   *   **No Co-Lending Model:** The company maintains a direct lending and **post-acquisition assignment model**, avoiding co-lending arrangements entirely.

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# 3. Funding & Cost of Funds

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Borrowing Mix:** **52%** money market · **39%** banks · **9%** NHB refinance
   * **Cost of Funds (COF):** **7.3%** in Q3 FY'26 (-50 bps YoY, -5 bps QoQ)

## B. Borrowing Mix
   *   **Diversified Liability Structure:** Funding sources span 18 banks with top-tier **AAA/Stable** ratings; mix shifted toward bank borrowings amid declines in NCD, CP, and NHB refinance portions.
   *   **Floating Rate Alignment:** **60% of AUM** and **52% of assets retained** are on floating rates, supporting structural hedge against rate volatility.

## C. Cost of Funds
   *   **Falling Funding Costs:** COF declined sharply YoY on policy rate pass-through and **cheaper incremental borrowings**, with further stability expected even in flat yield environments.

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# 4. Segment & Product Performance

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Sambhav Loans AUM:** **₹5,000 Cr** (combined near-prime & affordable)
   *   **Monthly Disbursement Run Rate:** **₹325–350 Cr** (Sambhav Loans)
   *   **Affordable Segment Contribution:** **35%-40%** of monthly disbursements (~₹125–130 Cr)
   *   **BT-in Contribution:** **27%-30%** of Sambhav business
   *   **Targeted Run Rate Growth:** **Near doubling** within 12–15 months

## B. Home Loan Performance
   *   **Segmented Risk Strategy:** Active risk-return balancing across home loans and LAP, with strict risk thresholds and defined roles for prime, near-prime, and affordable segments.
   *   **Leadership-Driven Expansion:** Prime and super prime growth anchored by new leadership and focused expansion in non-top 6 markets, while top 6 markets track broader industry trends.
   *   **Growth Outlook Relative to Peers:** Home loans expected to grow slower than LRD, LAP, and other segments, maintaining high reliance on assignment; management preparing contingency plans.
   *   **Organizational Structure:** Three distinct verticals under Bajaj Housing—Prime (Jasminder), Near Prime & Affordable (Pawan Bhansali), and Commercial (Vipin Arora, Dushyant Poddar)—enabling focused scaling.
   *   **Distribution Scale:** Sambhav employs **~900 front-end** and **~150 credit/operations staff**, supporting direct and hybrid sourcing.

## C. Near Prime & Affordable
   *   **High-Growth Investment Phase:** Near-prime and affordable segments in aggressive scaling mode with **3-year investment horizon**, targeting near-doubling of disbursement run rate on strong credit performance confidence.
   *   **Yield & Ticket Discipline:** Near-prime targets ₹40–60 lakh tickets at 9%–11% yields; affordable focuses on ₹15–35 lakh at 11%–13%, with **no yield-driven customer skew** observed.
   *   **Hybrid Sourcing Model:** Leverages **four dedicated teams**—BT-in/digital, intermediaries, builder counters, and field sourcing—to drive volume across segments.
   *   **Geographic Focus with Limited Differentiation:** Operations concentrated in **Top 36 cities and outskirts**; minimal geographic differentiation expected for 2–3 years due to overlapping HFC footprints.
   *   **Pricing Discipline Over Share Grabbing:** Maintains formal market rates (11%–13%) with **no intent to undercut competition**; strategic focus on upper end of affordable segment for next 12–18 months.

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# 5. Asset Quality & Credit Metrics

## A. Key Figures
   *   **GNPA:** **27 bps** Q3 FY'26 (↑1 bps QoQ) · **26 bps** Q2 FY'26
   *   **NNPA:** **11 bps** Q3 FY'26 (↓1 bps QoQ)
   *   **Annualized Credit Cost:** **19 bps** Q3 FY'26 vs. **20 bps** adjusted prior year
   *   **9M Credit Cost:** **18 bps** FY'26 (flat YoY adjusted)
   *   **Total Prepayment Rate:** **20%** (14–15% BT-out, 4–5% natural/part)
   * **BT-in:** **16.5%** of home loan acquisitions (last quarter)

## B. Asset Quality & Risk Profile
   *   **Pristine Portfolio Maintained:** Asset quality remains robust, anchored in low-risk prime housing and lease-rental discounting, supporting sustained above-pristine credit performance.
   *   **Stable Credit Trends:** Annualized credit cost slightly below adjusted prior-year levels despite rising nominal outflows, reflecting disciplined underwriting and risk calibration.
   *   **Stage Migration Stability:** Stage-1 and Stage-2 assets shifted marginally QoQ (↓3 bps and ↑3 bps respectively), but remain stable YoY, with **Stage-2 at 37 bps** as a monitored early-warning signal.

## C. Prepayment & Attrition Dynamics
   *   **High Prepayment Pressure:** Total prepayment rate remains elevated at **20%**, with **BT-out accounting for 60–70%** of outflows, driven by interest rate arbitrage in a declining rate environment.
   *   **Attrition Guidance Unchanged:** Despite downward revision from prior industry norms, **attrition expected to hold at 8–10% for FY'26**, with management anticipating relief only upon rate stabilization.
   *   **Customer Mobility Insight:** Only **~40% of customers initiating file transfers complete migration within 90 days**, suggesting friction in balance transfer execution despite high intent.

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# 6. Risks & Regulatory Factors

## A. Competitive Pressure
   *   **Persistent Competitive Intensity:** Market competition in prime and super prime segments remains entrenched, with pricing pressure on new loan acquisitions viewed as a permanent structural feature, not a temporary trend.
   *   **Dual Headwinds:** Current challenges include both aggressive competitor pricing and elevated customer attrition driven by falling interest rates.

## B. Regulatory Capital
   *   **Regulatory-Driven Capital Charge:** Sharp Tier-1 decline attributed to revised RBI guidelines requiring provisioning on **entire undisbursed tranches** of under-construction home and construction loans, not just next-stage disbursements.
   *   **Temporary Impact, Prudent Stance:** The capital charge applies only to partially disbursed loans with ongoing risk exposure; company will maintain full provisioning until regulatory clarity is obtained.
   *   **No Charge on Sanctioned Amounts:** Undrawn sanctioned limits are subject only to a short-term **credit conversion factor (30–60 days)**, consistent with standard practice—no capital charge on undrawn sanctions.

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# 7. Guidance & Outlook

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Monthly Disbursement Target:** **₹600 Cr** run rate in 12–15 months
   *   **Medium-Term Growth Guidance:** **24–26%** (3–4 year horizon)
   *   **FY'26 Growth Guidance:** **21–23%**
   *   **Cost-to-Income Ratio Outlook:** **14–15%** projected over 3–4 years
   *   **NTI Impact:** **15–20 bps** decline expected for full year
   *   **Cost of Funds:** **20–25 bps** reduction projected from April onward

## B. Growth Forecast
   *   **Confident Near-Term Trajectory:** Management expresses increased confidence in sustained volume growth across all segments—affordable to super prime—over the next 12–18 months, underpinning the ₹600 Cr disbursement target.
   *   **Affordable Housing Mix Stable Then Expanding:** Current 35% affordable housing mix expected to hold over the next 6–12 months before increasing in the long term, aligned with strategic SBU investments.
   *   **Guidance Horizon Clarified:** Medium-term outlook spans 3–4 years, not longer; no formal guidance beyond 12–15 months due to ongoing operational learning and market evolution since SBU launch.

## C. Margin Expectations
   *   **Efficiency Pathway Defined:** Cost-to-income ratio on track to reach 14–15% over 3–4 years, supported by ~20% revenue growth and ~9% OPEX growth assumptions, aided by AI-driven efficiencies.
   *   **Funding Cost Relief Ahead:** Despite near-term G-Sec volatility, cost of funds expected to decline 20–25 bps from April due to repricing of legacy higher-rate borrowings.
   *   **NII Stable, NTI Slight Pressure:** Net Interest Income to hold flat YoY; Net Take Home Income to compress marginally on full-year basis, reflecting current rate dynamics.
   *   **PLR Adjustments Under Review:** Recent PLR changes implemented, with further tweaks possible in the coming months depending on market conditions.