ICE Make Refrigeration Ltd Q2 FY2026 Concall Summary & Transcript Notes

Source transcript PDF: https://www.stockscans.in/document/nchvv5egvzdebpd51v51lk49.pdf

# 1. Financial Performance

## A. Key Figures
   * **Standalone Revenue:** **₹148 Cr** (Q2 FY'26) (+47% YoY, +33% QoQ) · **EBITDA:** **₹8.78 Cr** (Q2) · **EBITDA Margin:** **5.90%**
   * **Consolidated Revenue:** **₹147.49 Cr** (Q2 FY'26) (+43% YoY, +32% QoQ) · **EBITDA:** **₹9.70 Cr** (Q2) · **EBITDA Margin:** **6.59%**
   * Standalone PAT: **₹1.45 Cr** (Q2) vs. **(₹1.39 Cr)** loss (Q1)
   *   **Consolidated PAT:** **₹2 Cr** (Q2) vs. **(₹47 Cr)** loss (Q1)

## B. Revenue Growth
   *   **Strong Sequential Acceleration:** Robust year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter revenue growth across standalone and consolidated segments, driven by operating efficiency and strong demand in vertical cold-rooms, industrial refrigeration, and transport refrigeration.
   *   **Operational Scale Driving Margins:** Standalone EBITDA margin expansion to 90% reflects significant leverage from increased scale and improved capacity utilization.

## C. Profitability Trends
   *   **Profitability Recovery:** Sharp turnaround in profitability with both standalone and consolidated entities moving from Q1 losses to Q2 profits, signaling effective cost control and volume leverage.
   *   **Gross Margin Pressure:** Margins softened by ~2% due to **shifts in sales mix**, notably higher contributions from quick commerce and corporate clients, though core product line performance remains intact.
   *   **Niche Product Contribution:** Continuous panels and commercial fridges account for **15–18% of H1 revenue**, but are not primary drivers of margin variability.

## D. EBITDA Margin
   *   **Margin Guidance Raised:** Management expects EBITDA margin to reach **at least 8%** in H2, supported by scale benefits and **1% price increase**—the first in 2–3 years—marking a shift from growth-at-all-costs to margin-conscious pricing.
   *   **Pricing Power Reasserted:** The planned price hike underscores improved market positioning and confidence in demand resilience after a prolonged period of frozen pricing.

## E. Balance Sheet
   *   **Balance Sheet Strengthening:** Strategic focus on prudent financial management to fortify the balance sheet and fund future expansion organically.

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# 2. Order Book & Demand

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Order Book:** **₹190 Cr** (ongoing pipeline) · **₹650 Cr** full-year revenue target (40:60 H1:H2 split)
   *   **Margin Benefit:** **1%** full-year uplift expected from phased price increases

## B. Current Order Book
   *   **Diversified Pipeline:** Order book spans multiple segments with **ammonia vertical (₹52 Cr)** and **project orders (₹45 Cr)** as largest components, indicating strong project execution momentum.
   *   **Execution Tempo:** Average delivery cycle of **45 days**, though complex projects extend to six months, reflecting scalability in fulfillment capacity.
   *   **Demand-Supply Alignment:** Management views rising competition—including from **Varun Beverages**—as accommodated by expanding cold chain demand, particularly in **freezers and vici coolers**, supporting sustainable growth.

## C. Customer Mix & Competitive Landscape
   *   **Upgraded Mix:** Increasing sales to **corporate and retail segments** signal improved customer quality and pricing power.
   *   **Segmented Competition:** Competitive dynamics vary by vertical—**Kingspan, Jindal, Metecno** in continuous panels; **Blue Star, Voltas, Carrier** in commercial refrigeration; **Suraksha, Sub-Zero** in transport; and **Rinac, Freak** in ammonia systems.

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# 3. Product & Segment Performance

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Revenue Mix:** **49%** cold room · **15–16%** old commercial vertical · **10%** continuous panel · **7%** ammonia · **6–7%** commercial freezer · **5%** transport refrigeration · **4%** project business · **3%** industrial refrigeration
   *   **New Sectors Contribution:** **21%** of H1 FY'26 revenue
   * Chest Freezer Orders: ₹1 Cr (current order book)

## B. Cold Room Sales
   *   **Dominant Segment:** Cold rooms remain the largest revenue driver, with **strong double-digit growth** fueled by expanding demand from food processing, dairies, pharma, and healthcare end markets.
   *   **Product Mix Stability:** Revenue distribution across segments remains consistent, with cold rooms nearly half of total sales, reflecting entrenched market positioning.

## C. New Verticals
   *   **Strategic Expansion:** New verticals now contribute a **meaningful 21% of revenue**, driven by tailored, energy-efficient solutions for agriculture, pharma, and big commerce sectors.
   *   **Path to Profitability:** New business lines on track to reach **break-even this fiscal year**, with anticipated positive EBITDA margin contribution despite current lack of segment-level profitability tracking.
   *   **Early-Stage Momentum:** Chest freezer division shows initial traction, with order ramp-up expected post-November as commercialization accelerates.

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# 4. Geography & Channel Mix

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Revenue Mix:** **50%** West · **16%** North · **16%** South · **12%** East · **3%** exports · **2%** national dealers/OEMs

## B. Regional Revenue
   *   **Core Concentration, Balanced Expansion:** Revenue remains concentrated in the West, but strategic momentum builds in the Eastern, Central, and Southern regions across 20 active projects.
   *   **Demand Shift:** Rising inquiries for **energy-efficient, eco-friendly refrigeration technologies** signal a shift toward sustainable solutions and potential long-term structural demand.
   *   **East Region Context:** Prior H1 strength in the East was skewed by a **single large project**, indicating current 12% contribution is more representative of baseline demand.

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# 5. Capacity & CAPEX

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Production Capacity:** **₹550 Cr** (old business)
   *   **Revenue Target:** **₹500 Cr** (old business)
   *   **CAPEX Incurred (H1 FY26):** **₹22 Cr** (includes carryover and initial Phase II spend)
   *   **Land Cost (Phase II):** **₹5 Cr** of planned **₹150 Cr** CAPEX
   *   **H2 CAPEX Guidance:** **₹3–5 Cr** (base case), up to **₹15 Cr** if additional developments proceed

## B. Production Capacity
   *   **Capacity Utilization Focus:** Growth strategy centers on full capacity utilization, automation, and technology upgradation to drive efficiency.
   *   **Inventory Build-Up Pattern:** Off-season inventory accumulation in **WIP and finished goods** contributes to seasonally elevated inventory levels.

## C. Phase II CAPEX
   *   **Phase II Status:** ₹150 Cr expansion remains under active discussion, described as progressing positively but not yet finalized.
   *   **Funding Approach:** Expected to leverage **remaining debt capacity** and may include **equity financing**, with structure to be determined.
   *   **Execution Progress:** Initial steps underway, including land acquisition; minimal spend expected in H2 unless scope expands.

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# 6. Risks & Capital Efficiency

## A. ROCE Pressure
   *   **ROCE Under Pressure:** Return on capital employed faces headwinds from rising debt, potential equity dilution, stretched working capital, and margin challenges.
   *   **Near-Term Drag:** Current-year ROCE will be impacted by partial-year contribution from the new plant, with full-cycle benefits expected only after the upcoming season.
   *   **Funding Flexibility:** Management retains optionality for **equity funding** as projects advance, despite a debt-to-equity ratio above 1.

## B. Working Capital
   *   **Strategic Inventory Build:** Working capital stretched due to proactive stockpiling of **compressors and raw materials** to mitigate BIS-related supply disruptions for chest freezers.
   *   **Model Shift Impact:** Elevated inventory and debtor days reflect expansion into **new business segments** and transition to a **regular distributor model in PUF**.
   *   **H2 Recovery Expected:** A **drastic improvement in the working capital cycle** is anticipated in the second half, supported by stronger sales and a more favorable business mix.

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# 7. Guidance & Outlook

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Revenue Target:** **₹1,000 Cr** by FY'28
   *   **EBITDA Margin Guidance:** **10–11%** by FY'28 (CAPEX-dependent)
   *   **FY'26 EBITDA Margin:** **8%** full-year forecast vs. ~5% in H1
   *   **CAPEX Plan:** **₹150 Cr** planned for capacity expansion
   *   **Long-term ROCE Target:** **~25%**, expected post-ramp-up

## B. Revenue Target
   *   **H2-Dominated Seasonality:** Business historically weighted toward second half, with **60% of annual volume** typically realized post-Q2, supporting back-end loaded revenue and margin delivery.
   *   **Milestone Trajectory:** ₹1,000 Cr revenue target by FY'28 reflects disciplined scaling, contingent on successful CAPEX execution and volume ramp-up.

## C. Margin Forecast
   *   **Margin Recovery Path:** Full-year EBITDA margin forecast at 8% despite weak H1, driven by **seasonal mix shift** and expected Q4 strength, consistent with prior-year patterns.
   *   **Near-Term Pressure, Medium-Term Lift:** Margins may dip slightly this year due to new vertical ramp-up costs, but **next-year margin expansion** is anticipated as these businesses scale.
   *   **Gross Margin Stabilization:** Corporate-retail sales mix normalization expected by year-end, supporting margin predictability.

## D. Long-term ROCE
   *   **ROCE Lag Behind Margins:** While EBITDA margins are on track to meet targets, **ROCE may be delayed by 1–2 years** due to ramp-up time for new CAPEX and suboptimal initial utilization.
   *   **ROCE Rebound Case:** Return to **20–25% ROCE range** expected once ₹1,000 Cr+ revenue and target EBITDA margins are achieved and new plant reaches full efficiency.