# 1. Financial Performance ## A. Key Figures * Total Income: ₹25,754 Mn Q2 FY'26 (+75%) · ₹49,838 Mn H1 FY'26 (+28%) * EBITDA: ₹8,693M Q2 FY'26 (+95%, +348 bps) · ₹16,778M H1 FY'26 (+363 bps) * **Net Debt:** **~₹5,600 Cr** post-Thriveni consolidation, with **₹400 Cr cash** and **~₹6,000 Cr debt** at Thriveni ## B. Revenue Growth * **Record Top-Line Performance:** Q2 marked a milestone with record revenues, driven by higher iron ore dispatches, new pellet sales, and logistics improvements via slurry pipeline. * **Capacity Expansion Catalyst:** Consolidation of Thriveni delivered **35–40% EC increase** in iron ore for clients and **~20% EC gain** at NTPC mines, significantly boosting effective capacity. * **Pricing Resilience:** Domestic iron ore prices remain **35–45% above international levels**, with minimal impact from global declines due to structural decoupling. * **Pellet Market Volatility:** Pellet pricing remains sensitive to weak domestic steel cycle, leading to near-term price fluctuations despite strong underlying demand for raw materials. ## C. Profitability Trends * **Robust Margin Expansion:** EBITDA margins surged in both Q2 and H1, reflecting operating leverage and cost efficiencies despite pellet price volatility. * **Strong Bottom-Line Growth:** PAT grew **22% YoY** in both periods, though at a slower pace than top-line and EBITDA, indicating rising tax or interest outflows. ## D. Balance Sheet Position * **Debt Driven by Strategic Acquisition:** Increase in consolidated debt primarily reflects Thriveni consolidation, including promoter RPS and operational scaling, not organic leverage build-up. * **Leverage Discipline:** Company targets **1x debt-to-EBITDA**, with future funding via lease debt and internal accruals, signaling commitment to sustainable capital structure. ## E. Cash Flow Profile * **Working Capital Support:** **₹800 Cr** working capital limit sanctioned to sustain expanded operations post-consolidation. * **Cash Conversion Clarification Pending:** Negative consolidated cash flow vs. standalone attributed to debt and working capital dynamics; detailed explanation to follow post-review. --- # 2. Volume & Production ## A. Key Figures * Iron Ore Production: 3.42 MnT (Q2 FY'26) (+77% YoY) · Sales: 2.5 MnT (+10% YoY) * **Realization:** **₹5,571/ton** (iron ore) · **₹9,916/ton** (pellets) * **EBITDA per Ton:** **₹1,781** (iron ore, +7% YoY) · **₹5,039** (pellets) ## B. Iron Ore Output * **Robust Production Growth:** Iron ore output surged on strong operational ramp-up, with sales growth and stable realizations despite monsoon headwinds. * **Margin Resilience:** EBITDA per ton improved amid favorable cost control, reflecting operational efficiency under challenging weather conditions. ## C. Pellet Plant Utilization * **Rapid Ramp-up Success:** New 40 million ton pellet plant achieved 100% utilization within months, signaling strong execution capability and demand absorption. * **High-Value Pellet Economics:** Konsari plant delivered **premium realization** and **industry-leading EBITDA per ton**, driven by captive ore and slurry pipeline cost advantages. * **Evacuation Scalability:** H2 FY'26 targets 12–14 million tons of pellet evacuation via multi-modal logistics, with pipeline capacity expected to reach **25,000–28,000 tons/day**. ## D. DRI Production Ramp-up * **Vertical Integration Milestone:** DRI plant commissioned, marking a key step in building a fully integrated value chain from mine to steel. --- # 3. Capacity & Projects ## A. Key Figures * Planned Pellet Capacity: 12 million tons across three plants * Surjagarh Mine Capacity: 26 million tons (up from 10 million) * BHQ Plant Input: 30 Mn Tons (output: 10 Mn Tons) · 9 Modules of 5 Mn Tons each * **IPS Benefit Recognized:** **₹94 Cr** in current quarter * **Steel Plant Construction Start:** Mid- to end-FY '27 ## B. Pellet Plant Expansion * **Multi-Phase Growth Pipeline:** Second pellet plant and 12 crore ton wire rod facility in advanced development; third pellet plant targeted for 2028–2029 commissioning alongside phase three beneficiation. * **Mining Scale-Up Underway:** Surjagarh mine ramping to **6x prior capacity**, with capex and operations ready for full throughput. * **Odisha Expansion Plans:** Two new mining projects—Indrani Patnaik and MGM Mines—planned to support growing operations. ## C. BHQ Beneficiation Progress * **Strategic Land Acquisition:** 290 acres secured near Konsari factory for multi-use development, including switchyard infrastructure for MSEDCL. * **Phased Commissioning Plan:** First BHQ unit to start in Q4 next year; ramp-up at one module per month initially, aligned with steel plant progress. * **Output Efficiency Clarified:** BHQ plant yields **1 crore ton output from 3 crore ton input**, with mining volumes exceeding 2 crore ton guidance pre-commissioning. * **Margin Resilience:** Projected margins held steady despite higher mining costs, offset by lower royalty expenses. ## D. Steel Plant Timeline * **Revised Steel Plant Schedule:** Construction now expected to begin mid- to end-FY '27, later than previously indicated; detailed project study ongoing with Chinese consultant for tech optimization. * **Land Acquisition Ongoing:** Site for 3 crore ton steel plant still being secured. * **Execution Discipline:** Project pipeline advancing as planned, including pellet and DRI plant commissioning in H1 FY26 and Ghugus DRI expansion ramp-up. --- # 4. Product & Segment Mix ## A. Key Figures * **Coal Contract:** **3 Mn Ton** NTPC deal (immediate start) * Iron Ore Sales: 18 Mn Ton to open market * **Pellet Exports:** **60,000–70,000 Tons/Month** · **Zero Inventory** * **DRI Volumes:** **88,200 Tons** in Q2 (+4% YoY) * Steel Plant Capacity: 3 million tons HR Coil · 2 million tons CR/HR Pickled · 0.5 million tons Color Coated/Galvanized ## B. Pellet Sales & Market Position * **Strategic Supply Dominance:** Company remains the primary iron ore supplier to **70–75%** of non-captive pellet producers in Raipur, with strong customer lock-in in Chandrapur. * **Expanding Customer Base:** Pellet customer profile set to shift with new plant coming online; strategic push into **southern India** and **European exports** driven by CBAM compliance tailwinds. * **Robust Export Execution:** Sustained monthly pellet exports and **zero inventory** underscore strong off-take and operational efficiency. ## C. DRI and Power Segment * **Volume Growth with Margin Resilience:** DRI volumes rose **4% YoY** despite soft pricing, with profitability preserved by lower fuel costs. ## D. Value-added Steel Plans * **Premium Product Focus:** Future steel output to be split **50-50** between HR and value-added segments, including color-coated and structural steel, signaling margin enhancement strategy. * **Integrated Downstream Buildout:** Project envisions full integration from HR coil to high-margin coated products, though final capacity and mix remain under review. --- # 5. Cost & Margin Drivers ## A. Key Figures * **IPS Annual Benefit:** **₹350–400 Cr** (pellets: ₹1,000/ton; DRI: ₹1,200/ton) * **Slurry Pipeline Savings:** **₹600/ton** (current quarter) * **DRI EBITDA per Ton:** **₹3,879** (H1) · **₹3,150** (Q2 FY’26) * **Pellet Margin:** **₹5,000/ton** (driven by captive assets and cost advantages) * **Gross Margin:** 79% stand-alone (Q2), down from 87–88% historical average * Thriveni EBITDA Margin: 16.5% (H1), below 33% target due to low volumes ## B. Conversion Cost Advantage * **Low-Cost Leadership:** Captive mining and industry-leading conversion costs establish the company as the **lowest-cost producer**, enabling margin resilience and competitive pricing power in domestic and international markets. * **Scale-Up Impact:** Near-term margin pressure from start-up costs at **LMEL and Odisha sites**, despite stable variable costs, reflecting investment phase drag on profitability. * **IPS Growth Trajectory:** Annual IPS benefits expected to reach ₹350–400 Cr, with upside potential as new products are introduced, signaling scalable value addition. ## C. Slurry Pipeline Savings * **Structural Cost Advantage:** The 85-km slurry pipeline delivers **seamless evacuation**, **carbon efficiency**, and **reliable operations**, with ₹600/ton savings insulating margins during price volatility and monsoon disruptions. * **Immediate Value Capture:** Q2 FY’26 realized **₹94 Cr in IPS benefits**, demonstrating rapid monetization of infrastructure investments. ## D. EBITDA per Ton Trends * **Pellet Margin Strength:** Pellet business generates **among the highest margins in the country**, supported by captive ore, pipeline efficiency, and **textbook plant utilization**, despite temporary gross margin dip. * **Thriveni Margin Drag:** Sub-scale production of **8–10 Mtpa** (vs. forecast) led to fixed cost absorption issues, weighing on EBITDA margin despite operational readiness. * **Inventory Overhang:** Costs for **12 Mtpa of BHQ ore** already expensed and held in stock, creating potential for future margin uplift upon utilization. --- # 6. Risks & Operational Challenges ## A. Operational Resilience & Recovery * **Post-Monsoon Normalization:** Mining operations have fully normalized after rain-related disruptions, with **lost revenue expected to be recovered** in coming months due to operational resilience. * **Stable Subsidiary Performance:** Thriveni Earthmovers delivered steady results despite Q2 volume impacts from extended monsoon; outlook remains positive for remainder of year. ## B. Project Execution Delays * **BHQ Plant Delayed by Six Months:** Beneficiation plant schedule pushed back due to **pending land clearance** and complex engineering finalization in difficult terrain. * **Revised Construction Sequencing:** Delay enables prioritization of pellet plant completion, allowing undivided focus on beneficiation plant thereafter. ## C. Steel Market & Strategic Positioning * **DRI Market Under Pressure:** Secondary steel segment faces headwinds, though slight stabilization seen as **international coal prices hit bottom**, with recovery anticipated next quarter. * **Integration Strength Intact:** Core operations remain robust, underscored by **5-star safety ratings** and continued adoption of **electric and LNG hybrid mining equipment**, enhancing Lloyds Thriveni synergy value. --- # 7. Guidance & Outlook ## A. Key Figures * **Revenue Guidance (FY26):** **₹8,000 Cr** (Thriveni) * **Capex (H1 FY26):** **₹2,400 Cr** actual · **₹4,500–5,000 Cr** full-year guidance * **Capex Plan (Next 2 Years):** **₹6,000–6,500 Cr** annually * **NCD Raise:** **₹9,500 Cr** planned within 6 months * EC Capacity Utilization (FY26): ~20-22 Mn tons targeted * Captive Pellet Consumption (FY26): ~8 Mn t (±0.5 Mn t) * Iron Ore Dispatch (2026): 20–22 Mt expected ## B. FY26 Revenue Target * **Guidance Reaffirmed:** Full-year revenue target of ₹8,000 Cr remains intact despite delayed EC receipt, with confidence anchored in H2 ramp-up and execution discipline. * **No Formal EBITDA Guidance:** While specific FY26 EBITDA guidance was not reiterated, management implied **~₹2,000 Cr** as a realistic outcome under current opex and margin assumptions. ## C. Capex Forecast * **Sustained Investment Cycle:** Capex set to rise to **₹6,000–6,500 Cr annually** over the next two years, focused on long-term value and integrated capacity build-out. * **Funding Strategy:** Upcoming **₹9,500 Cr NCD issuance** will finance major portion of capex, signaling proactive liquidity planning amid aggressive expansion. ## D. Volume Projections * **H2 Volume Ramp-Up:** Confidence in achieving full-year targets driven by full slurry pipeline utilization, stabilized mining post-monsoon, and ramp-up at Surjagarh and pellet/DRI facilities. * **Margin Recovery Expected:** EBITDA margins seen rebounding to **30–33% range** in coming quarters on higher volumes and operational efficiencies, with pellet margins supported by export realizations. * **Price Stability Outlook:** Market prices expected to remain range-bound with **≤3% fluctuation** over next 6–9 months; current pellet margins seen stable or slightly improving near **₹4,000–5,000/ton**. * **Steel Cycle Positioning:** Despite near-term industry headwinds, company aims to achieve full operational readiness ahead of steel plant commissioning, positioning for leverage when cycle recovers.