Oil India Ltd Q2 FY2026 Concall Summary & Transcript Notes

Source transcript PDF: https://www.stockscans.in/document/13c6gudfsdqkccla2vd96lo9.pdf

# 1. Financial Performance

## A. Key Figures
   * Crude Oil Price Realization: **$68.19/bbl** Q2 FY26 (-18.11% YoY) · **$67.22/bbl** H1 FY26
   * Natural Gas Price Realization: $6.78/MMBTU Q2 FY26 (~steady YoY)
   *   **Standalone Revenue:** **₹5,456 Cr** Q2 FY26 (+9% QoQ) · **₹10,469 Cr** H1 FY26
   *   **Consolidated Turnover & PAT:** **₹9,175 Cr** Q2 FY26 · **₹1,640 Cr** PAT Q2 FY26
   * **Standalone PAT:** **₹1,044 Cr** Q2 FY26 (+28.8% QoQ) · **₹1,857 Cr** H1 FY26 (-44% YoY)
   * **EPS:** **₹6.42/share** (down YoY, +28% QoQ)
   *   **NRL EBITDA & PAT:** **₹989 Cr** EBITDA Q2 · **₹725 Cr** PAT Q2 · **₹1,774 Cr** EBITDA H1 · **₹1,213 Cr** PAT H1
   * EBITDA Margin: 34% Q2 FY26 (-13 pts QoQ)
   *   **Debt:** **₹17,799 Cr** as of Q2 FY26
   * **Dividend:** **₹3.50/share** interim dividend declared

## B. Revenue & Growth
   *   **Sharp Revenue Decline Driven by Oil Prices:** Standalone revenue drop YoY primarily due to **18% lower crude oil price realizations**, with H1 performance heavily impacted despite Q2 sequential improvement.
   *   **Gas Price Stability Offsets Oil Volatility:** Natural gas realizations held firm at elevated levels, supporting segment stability amid crude price declines.
   *   **Sequential Volume or Operational Growth Implied:** Q2 revenue and profit both showed strong QoQ growth despite low oil prices, suggesting **meaningful volume gains or cost improvements**.

## C. Profit & Margins
   *   **Margins Compressed by Price and One-Offs:** EBITDA margin contraction driven by lower revenue and **well write-offs**, while **₹700 Cr in one-off provisions** (Bangladesh, Gabon) weighed on profitability.
   *   **Employee Costs Surged Due to Regulatory Change:** **₹60 Cr increase** in employee expenses linked to **government-triggered gratuity revaluation** as DA crossed 50%, not core payroll inflation.
   *   **Strong Refining Margins Confirmed:** **$56 GRM** in Q2 included minimal inventory benefit (**$4 impact**), confirming that **favorable cracks and operational efficiency** were the true drivers of margin strength.
   *   **Sustained Margin Momentum into Q3:** Management affirms refining margin strength has carried forward, supporting near-term earnings resilience.

## D. Balance Sheet & Cash Flow
   *   **Gratuity Liability Revalued Upward:** Actuarial update increased per-employee liability from **₹20 lakh to ₹25 lakh**, reflecting long-term obligation impact from DA rule change.
   *   **Healthy Dividend Payout Despite Earnings Drop:** Interim dividend of **₹50/share** signals confidence in cash flow generation and balance sheet strength.

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# 2. Production & Output

## A. Key Figures
   * Oil & Gas Production: 3.332 MMTOE H1 FY26 · 1.652 MMTOE Q2 FY26
   * Crude Oil Production: 0.848 MMTOE Q2 FY26 (–0.6% QoQ, –2.58% YoY)
   *   **Natural Gas Production:** **804 bcm** Q2 FY26 (–8% QoQ, +6% YoY)

## B. Oil Volume Trends
   *   **Production Recovery:** Output has returned to **steady-state levels** in Q3 following temporary disruptions in prior quarters.
   *   **Q2 Disruption Impact:** Softness in crude volumes stemmed from a near-**one-month production drop** to ~9,000 metric tons per day due to regional slowdowns.
   *   **Operational Resilience:** Despite volatility, peak daily output reached **9,722 metric tons** in September 2015, supporting an annualized run-rate of **52–53 million metric tons**.

## C. Gas Volume Trends
   *   **Gas Output Growth:** Natural gas production showed **year-on-year expansion** amid normalized operations, offsetting sequential decline.

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# 3. Exploration & Drilling

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Wells Drilled:** **18** in Q2 FY26 (100% target) · **32** in H1 FY26 (+28% YoY)
   *   **Rig ODR:** **₹2 Cr/day** for Andaman block
   *   **Write-off Provision:** **₹723 Cr** for Vijaya Puram-2 (Q2 FY26, one-time)

## B. Well Activity
   *   **Accelerated Drilling Pace:** Robust execution with 28% YoY increase in H1 well count, reflecting enhanced operational focus and target achievement.
   *   **Strategic Technical Collaboration:** Partnership with **Total Energies** leveraged for deepwater expertise in well design and exploration planning.
   *   **Exploration-First Approach:** Third well in Andaman is pure exploration; capitalization deferred until confirmation of hydrocarbon volume and economic viability.

## C. Andaman Progress
   *   **Milestone Confirmed:** Gas occurrence verified in East Andaman, marking the first hydrocarbon confirmation in the region in over 30 years.
   *   **Shallow-Water Discovery:** Andaman find is in **300-meter bathymetry**, reclassifying it as shallow water, not deepwater, impacting development assumptions.
   *   **Path to Resource Estimation:** Contingent resources expected by end-FY27 post-supplementary 3D seismic survey; monetization remains distant.

## D. Write-offs & Costs
   *   **Non-Recoverable Write-off:** Vijaya Puram-2 fully written off due to **no hydrocarbon presence**, consistent with accounting standards (Ind AS 106).
   *   **Exploration Expense Policy:** All exploratory and appraisal costs are expensed until discovery is formally declared; write-offs are technical, not policy-driven.
   *   **Historic Closure:** Final write-offs for Gabon and Bangladesh assets expected by year-end; no further provisions pending.

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# 4. Refinery & Capacity

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Revenue (NRL Q2 FY26):** ₹6,442 Cr (+24% YoY, +5% QoQ)
   * Gross Refinery Margin: $10.56/bbl (Q2 FY26) (+110% QoQ) · $7.73/bbl (H1 FY26 avg)
   * Throughput: 0.75 MMT (Q2 FY26, NRL)
   *   **Capacity Utilization:** **>100%** (NRL Q2 FY26)
   *   **Distillate Yield:** **86%** (NRL Q2 FY26)
   * Gas Supply Run Rate: **0.9–1 MMSCMD** (current, NRL) · **3 MMSCMD** (target post-expansion)

## B. Expansion Status
   *   **Pipeline & Refinery Progress:** Numaligarh-Siliguri pipeline commissioned; DNPL pipeline mechanically complete, pending PESO and PNGRB approvals.
   *   **Unit-Level Readiness:** DHDT plant expansion at 95% completion; CDU/VDU units in pre-commissioning; select units at Numaligarh on track for December 2025 commissioning.
   *   **Crude Flexibility:** Over **100 crude varieties** evaluated for import, with Russian crude contingent on economics and sanctions compliance.

## C. Commissioning Timeline
   *   **Phased Commissioning Ahead:** First crude intake expected in December 2025, unit by unit; primary CDU/VDU unit targeted for end-December commissioning.
   *   **Ramp-Up Outlook:** Full stabilization expected over two quarters; **meaningful production** and serious volume ramp-up anticipated from **Q2 of next fiscal (June/July onwards)**.
   *   **No Near-Term Shutdowns:** No planned shutdowns for NRL in next 6 months; next scheduled for FY27.

## D. Throughput Performance
   *   **Strong Operational Execution:** Record capacity utilization and distillate yield underpin robust revenue growth despite minor supply constraints.
   *   **Supply Dynamics:** QoQ throughput dip attributed to **marginal reduction in crude supply from Oil India**, not operational issues; refinery operating on imported and inventory crude.
   *   **Integration Challenge:** 7-day pipeline disruption required to integrate DNPL line, coordinated with PNGRB approval timeline.

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# 5. Capex & Investment

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Capex Budget FY25:** **INR7,000 Cr** (current year) · **INR6,880 Cr** (prior year)
   *   **Capex Spent to Date:** **INR5,561 Cr** (70–75% of annual budget) · **INR8,000 Cr** spent vs. budget (historical overrun trend)
   *   **Overseas & JV Capex:** **INR385 Cr** (overseas, vs. INR100–120 Cr plan) · **INR1,117 Cr** (subsidiaries/JVs, vs. INR350 Cr plan)

## B. Budget Allocation
   *   **E&P-Centric Spending:** Over 60% of capex directed to exploration and production, including drilling and seismic, reflecting core operational focus.
   *   **PPE Investment:** Significant allocation of **INR2,284 Cr** to normal property, plant & equipment underscores sustained asset base expansion.

## C. Spend Utilization
   *   **Front-Loaded Execution:** High spend absorption in early months signals strong project momentum and execution capability.
   *   **Budget Overrun Pattern:** Historical and expected continuation of exceeding capex budgets highlights dynamic project scaling and limited fiscal rigidity.

## D. Overseas Returns
   *   **Mozambique Project Reactivated:** Force majeure lifted in Area 1, enabling resumption of development activities after prolonged suspension.
   *   **High-Return Investments:** **TYNGD investment delivered over 100% return** in eight years; **Vankorneft fully repaid** (USD8 Cr returned on USD8 Cr invested).
   *   **Dividend Realization:** **USD4 Cr received from USD6 Cr investment**, demonstrating tangible cash yield from overseas portfolio.

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# 6. Risks & Field Challenges

## A. Key Figures
   * Production Target: 9,720 MT/day achieved, with 10,000 MT/day as pre-disruption target
   *   **Stuck Dividends:** **USD 300 million** from Russia

## B. Geopolitical Disruptions
   *   **Exit Finalized:** Gabon and Bangladesh blocks marked for exit with **no major future expenses** expected, closing legacy liabilities.
   *   **Operational Halt:** Production disruption in Eastern region due to **economic blockade by ethnic group demanding SC status**, indirectly impacting operations despite no direct targeting.

## C. Exploration Uncertainty
   *   **Production Recovery:** Output restoration underway after **two-month shortfall**, now under active field-level monitoring.

## D. Fund Repatriation
   *   **Blocked Dividends:** **USD 300 million** in Russian dividends stranded due to **countermeasures against 'unfriendly' jurisdictions**, affecting Singapore-based special purpose vehicles.

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# 7. Guidance & Outlook

## A. Key Figures
   * FY '28 Gas Projection: 4 bcm
   * NRL Refinery Ramp-up: 3.8 bcm gas expected in FY '27, below prior guidance

## B. Production Targets
   *   **Cautious Recovery Path:** Management is adjusting strategies to restore output, with cautious optimism on matching or exceeding FY '26 targets despite ongoing disruptions.
   *   **Downward Target Revision:** Original FY '26 oil target scaled back amid field disruptions; focus now on achieving revised guidance.
   *   **Forward Trajectory:** FY '27 targets reflect strategic recalibration, with gas output expected to grow significantly from current levels.

## C. Gas Ramp-up Plan
   *   **Demand-Led Constraints:** Gas production ramp-up is limited by phased refinery commissioning and seasonal demand lulls, notably in tea gardens.
   *   **Infrastructure Timeline Firm:** DNPL pipeline remains on track for full operation before April 2026, enabling future volume increases.
   *   **Upside Potential:** Additional gas supply of **2 to 5 MMSCMD** to NRL feasible upon full refinery commissioning and rising industrial demand.

## D. Strategic Partnerships
   *   **Integrated Energy Transition:** Oil India is advancing its shift toward integrated energy, highlighted by the launch of India’s first 2G bioethanol plant using bamboo in Assam.
   *   **Deepwater Collaboration Push:** Company in advanced talks with **Total Energies** and engaging **Woodside Energy** and other majors to secure technical partnerships for frontier offshore exploration.
   *   **Blocked Funds Resolution:** Management evaluating repatriation options, anticipating positive developments by early next fiscal year.