One 97 Communications Ltd Q1 FY2024 Concall Summary & Transcript Notes

Source transcript PDF: https://www.stockscans.in/document/d5tm3vpvb012mrwz7daqyio2.pdf

# 1. Financial Performance

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Net Payment Margin:** **₹648 Cr** (+69%)
   *   **Profit Contribution Margin:** **56%** (+500 bps)
   *   **EBITDA before ESOP:** **+₹359 Cr** YoY improvement
   * Marketing Expenses: ₹1.8 Cr in Q1

## B. Revenue Growth
   *   **Strong Double-Digit Growth:** Revenue surge driven by robust momentum in payment and financial services, partially offset by seasonal and external headwinds in commerce.
   *   **Normalized Growth Trend:** Excluded **one-off UPI incentive** of ₹52 Cr from prior quarter to enable clean quarter-on-quarter comparison.
   *   **Monetization Upside:** Rising credit penetration expected to drive **material expansion in revenue per GMV** as POS credit and prepaid adoption grows.

## C. Profit Margins
   *   **Margin Expansion:** Profit contribution margin improved significantly, reflecting favorable business mix with higher contributions from **credit and financial services**.
   *   **Sustainable Margin Trajectory:** Net bps margins likely to remain in the **7 to 9 bps range**, supported by shift toward higher-margin credit transactions.
   *   **Marketing Strategy Shift:** While sports sponsorships (e.g., IPL) not renewed, future spend will be scaled as **percentage of revenue** to balance acquisition quality and efficiency.

## D. Cash Flow Trends
   *   **Operational Cash Flow Inflection:** EBITDA before ESOP rose sharply YoY, signaling strong underlying operating leverage and cost discipline.
   *   **Early Cash Generation:** Business has begun adding to cash reserves, marking a key milestone toward self-sustaining cash flow.
   *   **Indirect Cost Scrutiny:** Indirect costs rose 40%, but management attributes volatility to **lumpy, non-recurring items** and expects this category to decline in coming quarters.

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# 2. Loan Distribution & Credit

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Loan Disbursements:** **₹15,000 Cr** (Q) · **₹60,000 Cr** annualized run rate
   *   **Product Growth:** **138% YoY** Postpaid · **202% YoY** Personal Loans · **232% YoY** Merchant Loans
   *   **ECL Range (Postpaid):** **65–85 bps** (down from 75–100 bps)

## B. Disbursement Volume
   *   **Explosive Growth Across Segments:** All loan products showed robust momentum, with personal and merchant loans more than doubling YoY, driven by strong demand and platform scale.
   *   **Recurring User Monetization:** Over half of personal and merchant loan volume now comes from existing users, supporting a higher blended ticket size as lenders increase renewal limits.
   *   **Partner Expansion Underway:** Shriram Finance integration targeted for Q3; three to four new partners planned in FY24-25, including banks, to broaden distribution capacity.
   *   **Seasonal Resilience in Merchant Lending:** Despite flat QoQ volumes, underlying demand remains strong, with higher uptake from established merchants and seasonal uptick expected in Q2–Q3.

## C. Portfolio Quality
   *   **Credit Quality Discipline:** Portfolio performance improved, evidenced by lower ECL range for Postpaid; focus remains on risk-aware growth over volume chasing.
   *   **Take Rate Sacrifice for Quality:** Company absorbed a **1% upfront hit** in take rate to avoid passing on rate hikes, prioritizing borrower quality and portfolio stability.
   *   **Risk-Based Portfolio Management:** ECL rates for personal and merchant loans are comparable despite structural differences, reflecting disciplined underwriting and performance-based risk assessment.

## D. Take Rate Trends
   *   **Take Rate Stabilization Expected:** Recent dip attributed to temporary absorption of rate hikes; compensation expected over **12–15 months** via collection incentives, marking current levels as the trough.
   *   **Incentive Model Drives Alignment:** Paytm captures surplus if actual losses are below expected (e.g., **1% gain on 5% expected vs. 4% actual loss**), enhancing revenue resilience without balance sheet risk.
   *   **Innovation Supports Net Take Rates:** First-mover advantages in UPI credit, EMI aggregation, and SDK integrations continue to strengthen monetization efficiency.

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# 3. Merchant & Device Growth

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Merchant Subscriptions:** **79 Lakh** total (+11 Lakh net adds)
   *   **Device Additions:** **~1 Million per quarter** (~11 Crore total)
   * MTU Growth: +23% this quarter (YoY)
   *   **Locations:** **~500** (up from ~400 YoY)

## B. Device Installations & Expansion
   *   **Strategic Scaling:** Device rollout remains robust, supported by expanded sales force and product upgrades, with **5 Crore Soundbox installations targeted within two years**.
   *   **Operational Efficiency:** Cloud cost optimization delivered a one-time benefit from platform consolidation; longer-term, cloud spend will decline as % of GMV but may rise in absolute terms with scale.
   *   **Headcount Trajectory:** Hiring driven by geographic expansion and growing TAM, with team build-out expected for **two to three years**, subject to productivity and penetration trends.
   *   **User Base Resilience:** Recent MTU growth moderation reflects strategic focus on **Soundbox penetration and app upgrades**, not weakening demand; temporary dip from mandatory app update shows no retention impact.

## C. Merchant Subscriptions
   *   **Accelerating Adoption:** Merchant net adds show early signs of acceleration, rising to **11 Lakh in the latest quarter**, with all **79 Lakh device users on subscription plans**.
   *   **Revenue Visibility:** Subscription ARPU is **slightly above ₹100** (net of GST), providing stable, recurring revenue; distribution infrastructure is future-ready for new merchant-facing offerings.

## D. Soundbox Penetration
   *   **High-Growth Product:** Soundbox adoption is accelerating in a low-penetration market, contributing **over ₹100 per unit** (conservatively estimated at ₹100), with card machines generating **₹300–₹500** but smaller base.
   *   **Rollout Hierarchy:** QR-first strategy prioritizes accessibility, with **DIY QR solutions expanding reach**, while Soundbox and card machines follow in deployment sequence.

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# 4. Payment & Transaction Mix

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Payment Processing Margin:** **7–9 bps** (high end, excluding UPI incentives)

## B. GMV by Instrument
   *   **Margin Expansion via Mix Shift:** Strong double-digit growth in **card and EMI transactions** is the primary driver of improved payment margins, supported by rising credit adoption on UPI QR.
   *   **Strategic Focus on Credit & Prepaid:** Credit and prepaid-based QR payments are emerging as key growth vectors, outpacing debit-based QR, amid broader affordability trends in Indian retail.
   *   **Technology-Led Penetration:** Paytm is leveraging its integrated platform across online, offline, and QR to capture demand for accessible financial solutions and expand margin-rich use cases.

## C. UPI vs Card Growth
   *   **Card & EMI Outpacing UPI:** Despite continued UPI growth, card and EMI volumes are expanding faster due to increased POS deployment and credit enablement on QR networks.
   *   **Regulatory Tailwinds for Credit:** Regulatory support for **credit on UPI QR**, BNPL, and interoperable wallets is accelerating the shift toward higher-margin payment instruments.
   *   **Interoperability Benefits Delayed:** The April circular enabling Paytm Payments Bank wallet interoperability is in development; user adoption and use case expansion expected in Q3–Q4, with limited near-term margin impact.

## D. Interchange Costs
   *   **Cost-Side Margin Support:** Interchange cost reductions for **wallets** (post-NPCI circular) and **Postpaid** (due to improved portfolio quality) have bolstered net payment margins.
   *   **Revenue Growth Despite Lower Charges:** Payment income rose even as processing charges declined, underscoring structural shift toward high-margin EMI and card transactions.
   *   **Success Rate Over Price:** Pricing is not a key differentiator; merchants prioritize **payment success rates** and **instrument diversity**, reinforcing Paytm’s product strategy.

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# 5. Product & Segment Performance

## A. Key Figures
   * Co-branded Credit Cards: 7.5 lakh activated cards
   *   **Commerce GMV:** **₹2,500 Cr** (+10% YoY)
   *   **Commerce & Cloud Revenue:** **+22%** YoY
   *   **Personal Loan IRR:** **16–20%**
   *   **Merchant Loan Returns:** **Few percentage points higher** than personal loans

## B. Co-branded Credit Cards
   *   **Successful Scaling:** Co-branded credit cards now at 5 lakh activated units, led by strong early adoption of the Paytm SBI RuPay card.
   *   **Strategic Differentiation:** Paytm SBI RuPay card’s key advantage is **broader acceptance via UPI integration**, expanding reach beyond traditional card networks.
   *   **Product Focus:** No plans for new lending categories; emphasis remains on scaling personal loans, postpaid, and merchant loans with potential customized variants.

## C. Advertising & Vouchers
   *   **Resilient GMV Growth:** Commerce GMV and revenue grew solidly, driven by advertising and diversified voucher offerings despite headwinds in movies and Play Store sales.
   *   **Seasonal & Market Challenges:** Events and movie segments underperformed due to fewer holidays and weak industry tailwinds, with recovery expected in second-half quarters.
   *   **Merchant-Led Expansion:** Deals and gift vouchers scaled significantly via hybrid model—engaging both national chains and **small Kirana stores**, enhancing platform utility.

## D. Subscription Revenue
   *   **Growth Linked to Devices:** Subscription revenue expansion closely tied to increasing merchant adoption of Paytm’s subscription-based devices.
   *   **Long-Term Monetization Vision:** Evolution from QR to devices to **Commerce & Cloud solutions** positions Paytm to unlock new revenue streams via integrated merchant services.
   *   **Strategic Innovation:** Launch of **bond trading platform** on Paytm Money targets low retail bond penetration, representing a multi-year growth initiative.

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# 6. Client & Credit Risks

## A. Portfolio Risk Exposure
   *   **Headline:** Sustained focus on credit quality since 2022 has driven **lower expected credit loss (ECL) rates**, reflecting disciplined underwriting.
   *   **Headline:** Lending strategy remains anchored in the **"two-by-two" framework** (loans up to two years tenure and ₹2 lakh ticket size), viewed as the optimal risk-reward sweet spot.
   *   **Headline:** **No plans to increase lending limits**; majority of book to stay within current parameters, with future adjustments contingent on maintaining balanced risk-reward.
   *   **Headline:** Paytm faces **no penalties beyond 75% fee** and bears **no explicit or implicit liability** for portfolio underperformance, preserving clean risk boundaries as LSP.
   *   **Headline:** **Low market penetration** underscores a large addressable opportunity, enabling selective partnerships and coexistence despite competitive dynamics.

## B. Regulatory Compliance
   *   **Headline:** Paytm **welcomes FLDG regulations** but continues to operate without offering guarantees, maintaining its role as an enabler rather than risk taker.
   *   **Headline:** **Payment Aggregation approval pending**, though operations continue uninterrupted under regulator guidance; resolution expected "fairly shortly."
   *   **Headline:** **Payment Bank approval process ongoing** and taking longer than expected, with no definitive timeline despite active engagement.

## C. Lender Partner Stability
   *   **Headline:** **Shriram Capital added as first new lending partner** in FY25, aligning with target of onboarding 3–4 new institutions.
   *   **Headline:** Paytm **does not plan to adopt FLDG models**, leveraging its clean legacy position to attract large financial institutions on non-guarantee terms.

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# 7. Guidance & Outlook

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Platform Capex Growth:** **15%–20%** (annual)
   *   **ESOP Costs:** **Reduction expected from Q2 FY25**

## B. FCF Target
   *   **FCF Positive Path:** On track to achieve free cash flow positivity by year-end, supported by improving payment revenues and credit monetization.
   *   **PBT Clarity Limited:** No specific timeline provided for PBT breakeven excluding ESOPs; investors directed to prior EBITDA and cost trends.

## C. Loan Growth Plan
   *   **Regulatory Tailwinds:** Digital lending growth bolstered by clearer regulatory framework, enabling sustainable scaling of loan distribution.
   *   **Growth Calibration:** Loan expansion to be aligned with macro conditions, prioritizing portfolio quality over volume.
   *   **Margin Resilience:** No margin compression expected in current high repo rate environment; cost pass-through limited to protect asset quality.
   *   **Rates-Driven Leverage:** Margins could benefit in **H2 FY25** if repo rates decline, improving lending mix and profitability.
   *   **Client Expansion Marginal:** Payment Aggregation approval would yield limited upside, as most large clients are already live; focus remains on penetration.

## D. Capex Trajectory
   *   **Earnings Conversion Improving:** Declining ESOP costs from Q2 FY25 onward to accelerate EBITDA-to-net income conversion.