One 97 Communications Ltd Q2 FY2024 Concall Summary & Transcript Notes

Source transcript PDF: https://www.stockscans.in/document/idvuv1a3rg4xz1rlx4mysz49.pdf

# 1. Financial Performance

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Revenue:** ₹2,500 Cr Q2 FY24 (annualized >₹10,000 Cr) (+32% YoY)
   *   **EBITDA:** ₹153 Cr (6% margin) (+₹319 Cr YoY improvement)
   *   **Contribution Margin:** ₹1,426 Cr (+69% YoY)
   *   **Net Payment Margin:** ₹700 Cr (+60% YoY), operating at high end of 7–9 bps guidance
   *   **Cash Balance:** ₹8,750 Cr (+₹300 Cr QoQ)
   *   **Capex (H1 FY24):** ₹480 Cr (~₹1,000 Cr annual run rate)

## B. Revenue Growth
   *   **Sustained Top-Line Momentum:** Robust double-digit revenue growth driven by strong performance in commerce segments—travel, entertainment, deals, and gift vouchers.
   *   **Financial Services Upside:** Take rate expected to trend upward over coming quarters amid favorable repo rate conditions, signaling margin tailwinds.
   *   **Market Share Gains:** Online net payment margin business showing healthy growth, with expanding footprint even in competitive e-commerce channels.

## C. EBITDA & Margins
   *   **Profitability Leverage:** Significant YoY EBITDA improvement underpinned by strong contribution margin expansion and disciplined indirect cost control.
   *   **Payment Margin Drivers:** Growth in non-UPI instruments—credit cards, brand EMI, and affordability programs—lifting net payment margin despite no UPI incentives.
   *   **High-Impact Product Focus:** Credit-bearing products, international cards, and prepaid solutions gaining traction, with seasonal uplift expected from festive EMI demand.
   *   **Subsidiary Contributions:** Paytm Payments Bank and First Games (55% owned JV) delivered solid financial performance, supporting consolidated profitability.

## D. Cost & Capex Trends
   *   **Capex Efficiency:** ~80–85% of spend directed toward device deployment, with falling average costs due to tech advances and vendor deals enhancing deployment per rupee of Capex.
   *   **Device Cost Dynamics:** While card machines (₹5,000–₹7,000) elevate average costs, broader mix shift to lower-cost devices like Soundbox (~₹1,200) is driving down overall average.
   *   **Labor Cost Pressures:** Employee costs (ex-ESOP) have risen sequentially over five to six quarters due to strategic hiring in sales, financial services, and tech.
   *   **ESOP Overhang:** ESOP expenses in first half of FY24 reached ₹760 Cr—already surpassing full-year FY23 levels—posing a near-term dilution and cost concern.

## E. Liquidity & Capital Allocation
   *   **Cash Generation Strength:** QoQ cash balance increase reflects solid EBITDA conversion, interest income, and improved working capital dynamics with merchants.
   *   **Capex as Primary Outflow:** Capital expenditures remain the dominant use of cash, aligned with device-led merchant acquisition strategy.

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# 2. Payment & Lending Volume

## A. Key Figures
   *   **GMV (Commerce):** **₹2,900 Cr** (+39% YoY)
   *   **Loan Disbursals:** **₹16,211 Cr** (+122% YoY) · **$8 Bn+** annual run rate

## B. GMV & Take Rate
   *   **Resilient Monetization:** Take rates held steady within the 5–6% guided range despite strong GMV growth, signaling pricing discipline and model stability.
   *   **Strategic Focus on High-GMV Merchants:** Expansion in third-party commerce targets a concentrated pool of ~1,000 high-volume online merchants, with postpaid and UPI credit initiatives enhancing gateway stickiness.
   *   **Offline MDR Levers:** MDR applies selectively in offline segment—only when postpaid GMV exceeds a **double-digit percentage** of merchant volume—creating a phased revenue ramp.
   *   **UPI Credit as Growth Catalyst:** Integration of RuPay credit cards with UPI QR codes offers significant upside to GMV and MDR, though adoption remains constrained by merchant acceptance of fee-bearing instruments.

## C. Loan Disbursals
   *   **High Growth Amidst Base Expansion:** Lending business exhibits strong year-on-year momentum with **130–140%** H1 growth, even as quarterly personal loan growth moderates.
   *   **Substantial Penetration Headroom:** Only **1% of customers** use personal loans and **6% of merchants** access merchant credit, underscoring deep latent demand.
   *   **Merchant Loan Outperformance:** Disbursals expected to grow **50–60%+** driven by Soundbox adoption and expanding eligibility, despite a six-month lag in underwriting.
   *   **Geographic Scalability:** Credit services currently active in **over 250 towns**, well beyond the 500-payment-location footprint, highlighting asset-light scalability.

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# 3. Merchant & Device Growth

## A. Key Figures
   * **Device Additions:** **0.5 Mn/month** (August–September) · **1.5 Mn/quarter** (target, next 12–18 months)
   *   **Merchant Subscriptions:** **91% YoY growth** · **13 lakh new merchants** (last quarter)
   *   **Blended Fee per Device:** **₹95–₹105** (expected range, next 1–2 years) · **~₹100** (current average)
   *   **Sales Force Allocation:** **15–20%** dedicated to servicing · **20–25%** (projected service share of workforce)

## B. Device Strategy & Innovation
   *   **Integrated Edge:** Competitive advantage stems from in-house developed **hardware, software, and service stack**, differentiating Paytm from rebranded Chinese imports.
   *   **Value Over Price:** Devices are **not price-sensitive**; merchants prioritize reliability, performance, and immediate support, enabling Paytm to retain share despite free competitor offers.
   *   **Innovation Drives Expansion:** New products like **Pocket Soundbox** unlock underserved segments (e.g., transport, delivery) and extend reach beyond legacy physical Soundbox limitations.
   *   **Sustained Deployment Runway:** Device rollout is **not nearing saturation**, with 2–3 years of strong growth expected due to ongoing product innovation and segment expansion.

## C. Merchant Acquisition & Ecosystem
   *   **Robust Merchant Momentum:** Record quarterly merchant additions reflect **strong product-market fit** and scaling of sales infrastructure, with focus on both offline and online segments.
   *   **Lethal Product Combo:** Integration of **superior payment devices with value-added services (e.g., credit)** creates a compelling, sticky offering that enhances acquisition and retention.
   *   **MDR Monetization Pathway:** While **fewer than 1 million merchants** currently pay MDR, uptake is expected to grow gradually as merchants recognize value in increased sales and customer reach.
   *   **Scalable Distribution Model:** Commitment to **dominate payment acquiring** is backed by investments in manpower, innovation, and execution, with service infrastructure scaling proportionally to field force.

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# 4. Segment & Product Performance

## A. Key Figures
   * Activated Credit Cards: 8.7 lakh (Sep 2023) vs. 3 lakh (Sep 2022) (+6 lakh added)
   *   **Cloud Revenue Growth:** **+3% YoY** (temporary softness due to telecom VAS decline)
   *   **Paytm Money Active Customers:** **~7 lakh** annual active users

## B. Subscription Revenue
   *   **Steady Subscription Growth:** Revenue expanding with device deployment scale, anchored by tiered pricing—**high-end Android devices** at ₹500 vs. **Soundboxes** at ~₹100 (net of GST).
   *   **Strategic Model Shift:** Long-term pivot toward subscription-based pricing over percentage fees, informed by MDR experience, to enhance predictability and ecosystem stickiness.
   *   **Ecosystem-Led Monetization:** New financial products like Postpaid aim to deepen engagement within the existing user base rather than drive new credit acquisition.

## C. Cloud & Ads
   *   **Core Drivers Intact:** Cloud growth underpinned by strong co-branded card traction with **HDFC and SBI** and resilient advertising performance, despite near-term cloud revenue headwinds.
   *   **Technology as Differentiator:** Payment gateway capabilities—real-time monitoring, multi-gateway routing, UPI SDK, and affordability stack—are now merchant-facing, offering **competitive advantage**.
   *   **Credit on UPI: A Transformative Play:** Enables bank credit lines via mobile, a **breakthrough innovation** with broader reach than credit cards; backed by **NPCI and RBI**, it unlocks a new **MDR-bearing ecosystem**.
   *   **Merchant Adoption Outlook:** Online and enterprise merchants expected to rapidly adopt UPI credit lines due to **frictionless, cardless consumer access**.

## D. Paytm Money
   *   **High-Margin Growth Engine:** Wealth platform is increasingly profitable, with strong unit economics and low acquisition costs via the core payments funnel.
   *   **Mass-Market Focus:** Strategy centered on **simple, accessible products** like ETFs and SIPs to drive portfolio diversification and long-term retention, not just trading activity.
   *   **Sustained Investment:** Continued tech and product development to deepen engagement, reinforcing Paytm Money’s role as a **strategic retention vehicle**.
   *   **Postpaid vs. PL Trends:** Recent growth driven more by **ticket size than volume** in Postpaid—seen as non-sustainable—while such expansion may persist in **Paytm Lending (PL)**.

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# 5. Customer & Credit Metrics

## A. Key Figures
   * **Monthly Transacting Users:** **9.5 Cr** (+19% YoY)
   * Credit Customers (3-Yr Cumulative): 11 Mn
   *   **New Credit Customers (Monthly):** **400K–500K**
   *   **Personal Loan Maturities (Monthly):** **₹300–400 Cr**

## B. Transacting Users
   *   **User Growth Momentum:** Strong double-digit expansion in monthly transacting users, with sequential improvement indicating sustained engagement.
   *   **Credit Adoption Pipeline:** Massive base of existing users remains largely untapped for credit, with only **~1% penetration** among monthly users, highlighting a multi-year growth runway.

## C. Loan Portfolio Quality
   *   **Disciplined Credit Growth:** Personal loan growth was intentionally curtailed due to early performance concerns but has since stabilized; focus remains on high-quality, transaction-backed borrowers.
   *   **Selection Advantage:** Lending is concentrated among established Paytm users with proven transaction history, creating a structural edge in risk assessment and portfolio quality.

## D. Renewal Trends
   *   **Expanding Renewal Opportunity:** Monthly personal loan maturities create a growing pool for upsell, with renewal rates and credit lines rising as lender confidence strengthens.
   *   **Strategic Mix Shift:** Postpaid-to-PL conversion volumes declined **5%** due to deliberate exit from short-tenure loans with weak early performance, reflecting a more selective, quality-over-volume approach.

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# 6. Risks & Credit Quality

## A. Key Figures
   * PostBid Entry Rate: 9.5–10.75 (~50 bps decline) · ECL Rate: 65–85% (stable)
   * Personal Loan Bounce Rate: 10.25–11.25% (~50 bps decline) · ECL: stable
   *   **Merchant Loan ECL:** 475–525 bps (~50 bps improvement)

## B. Delinquency Trends
   *   **Portfolio Resilience:** Credit quality remains stable across segments despite macro stress, with no deterioration in unsecured loans over three quarters, supported by mature personal loan book.
   *   **Proactive Risk Management:** Personal loan growth was deliberately constrained due to early warning signs—rising delinquencies, increased leverage in early tenures, and weaker collections—leading to tighter underwriting.
   *   **Strategic Shift to Merchant Credit:** Company is deprioritizing short-term personal loans and instead focusing on **aggressive expansion in merchant credit and BNPL**, where portfolio quality is improving even amid scale.
   *   **Underwriting Discipline:** Loans with tenures ≤6 months are no longer offered; only 9–30 month tenures are issued, contributing to lower volume but higher portfolio quality.

## C. Macro & Repo Risk
   *   **RBI Restrictions Contained:** Paytm’s core lending and **MTU growth remain unaffected** by Paytm Bank’s regulatory constraints, as partners conduct independent KYC and underwriting.
   *   **Macro Caution Driving Discipline:** Conservative stance amid high repo rates and uncertainty has prevented ECL spikes, preserving portfolio stability despite external pressures.
   *   **MDR on UPI Under Review:** Regulatory discussions ongoing for potential MDR on RuPay cards above ₹2,000 and prepaid instruments, though not reflected in current guidance.

## D. Partner Dependency
   *   **Strategic Partner Expansion:** Added **Tata Capital (AAA-rated)** and **Shriram Finance**, increasing total lending partners to **nine**, with at least **three more expected in next two quarters**, including **one or two banks**.
   *   **Pilot-to-Production Pipeline:** Both Shriram and Tata Capital are live in pilot mode, with **full-scale rollout expected from November and next month**, respectively, enhancing risk diversification and geographic reach.
   *   **Differentiated Partner Focus:** Shriram targets **merchant credit**, while Tata Capital began with **personal loans**, enabling tailored risk assessment and market coverage.
   *   **Market Expansion Mindset:** Views **Google and Jio Financial Services** as positive ecosystem players that validate digital credit, enhance adoption, and strengthen regulatory acceptance—**not as direct competitors**.
   *   **Platform Positioning:** Paytm positions itself as a **high-quality originator** for balance sheet partners, benefiting from broader market endorsement and expected to gain traction as digital credit matures.

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# 7. Guidance & Outlook

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Credit Growth (2–3 Yr Outlook):** **40–50%** blended CAGR (merchant-led offsetting personal loan slowdown)
   * Personal Loan Growth (Near-Term): Muted growth expected; early double-digit YoY projected for next few quarters
   *   **Net Payment Margin:** **7–9 bps** (range-bound, short-term tailwinds possible) · **5–6 bps** (long-term guidance)
   *   **Town Expansion:** **50–60 new towns** to be added this year; **50–100 annually** thereafter based on market data

## B. Revenue Trajectory
   *   **Diverging Loan Trends:** Personal loan growth remains muted due to macro and risk discipline, while merchant lending drives strong overall credit expansion.
   *   **ONDC Long-Term Vision:** No near-term GMV guidance, but ambition set to match e-commerce duopoly scale over time.
   *   **Growth Resilience:** Company ahead of initial projections due to non-UPI instrument strength, though multi-year strategic outlook unchanged.

## C. Margin Range
   *   **Stable ESOP Run-Rate:** FY24 expenses expected in line with FY23, with reduction anticipated starting August 2024.
   *   **Payment Margin Stability:** Range-bound outlook reflects structural cost dynamics, with only temporary upside potential.

## D. Growth Priorities
   *   **Commerce-Led Strategy:** Focus on scaling payments, lending, and value-added services (ticketing, vouchers, ads) as core growth enablers.
   *   **Targeted Investment:** Marketing and sales spend to grow with device net adds; non-sales hiring to remain subdued with AI-driven efficiency gains.
   *   **Strategic Optionality:** New business line under evaluation, contingent on portfolio performance and macro backdrop; no adverse signals detected.
   *   **UPI Cross-Border Pilots:** Early-stage remittance initiatives underway, with cautious optimism on future scale.