One 97 Communications Ltd Q1 FY2025 Concall Summary & Transcript Notes

Source transcript PDF: https://www.stockscans.in/document/wafswm7vvjw3b4nh21huu4ln.pdf

# 1. Financial Performance

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Revenue Growth:** **>35%** on large base (improving forward)
   *   **Employee Cost Reduction Target:** **₹400–500 Cr** annualized run-rate savings
   *   **One-Off Costs:** **₹80–100 Cr** impact in quarter from infrastructure and provisioning
   *   **Carrying Value of PayPay SARS:** **₹2,000 Cr**

## B. Revenue Growth
   *   **Performance Resilience:** Quarterly results align with expectations, signaling potential inflection after prolonged flat performance.
   *   **Growth Trajectory:** Revenue grew over 35% on a large base, with management expecting acceleration as base normalizes.
   *   **Subscription Monetization:** Device-level subscription revenue remains strong at **₹80–90/month**, supporting recurring income stream.

## C. Profitability Trends
   *   **Margin Reset in Payments:** Sharp decline in payment processing margins due to exit of high-margin wallet business; non-UPI margins expected to stabilize at **15–18 bps**.
   *   **Loan Take Rate Clarity:** Sustainable loan take rate confirmed at **3–5%**, providing visibility into core lending profitability.
   *   **Bottom-Line Discipline:** Management enforcing strict review of all business units to ensure bottom-line contribution, pruning non-core activities.

## D. Cost Structure
   *   **Structural Cost Optimization:** Employee costs down ~10% QoQ, driven by exit of **~5,000 FASTag sales staff** and broader role rationalization.
   *   **Near-Term Cost Pressures:** Indirect expenses rose due to **one-off migration costs** and **tightened provisioning for device merchant receivables**, expected to reverse.
   *   **Technology Cost Shift:** Higher infrastructure absorption under new bank partner contracts, offset by slightly improved UPI incentive share.
   *   **Marketing Rebound & Outlook:** Targeted campaign drove short-term marketing increase; costs expected to trend lower for remainder of year.
   *   **Efficiency Roadmap:** Running costs expected to settle at **5–6 bps** (from prior 7–9 bps), with UPI incentives pushing total above 5 bps.

## E. Cash Flow & Balance Sheet
   *   **PayPay Investment Value:** FVTOCI fluctuations tied to INR/JPY forex moves; underlying PayPay investment unchanged, carrying value at ₹2,000 Cr.

---

# 2. Loan Book & Disbursement

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Personal Loan Ticket Size:** Remained flat YoY despite product mix shift
   *   **Small-Ticket Personal Loans:** **~5%** by value of total disbursals (~10–12% by volume)

## B. Merchant & Consumer Loans
   *   **Growth Moderation:** Disbursement momentum slowed in May–June 2024 due to **prudent lending policies** aligned with regulatory guidance, after a strong April run-rate.
   *   **Stable Core Business:** Merchant cash advance remains **highly profitable and stable**, with improved early delinquency trends from tightened underwriting; growth to stay conservative.
   *   **Strategic Focus:** Continued prioritization of merchant loans as a core pillar, integrated with payments in the company’s financial services ecosystem.

## C. Personal Loan Volume
   *   **Distribution-Led Scaling:** Personal loan growth driven by expanding partnerships with banks and non-banks, enabling gradual volume ramp-up.
   *   **Large-Ticket Emphasis:** Portfolio increasingly concentrated in **large-ticket loans (90–95% of disbursements)**, where the company acts primarily as a disbursing agent.
   *   **Minimal Mix Impact:** Discontinuation of small-ticket loans had negligible effect on average ticket size, given their low contribution to overall value.
   *   **Declining Small Loans:** Small-ticket loans (<₹50,000) now represent **3–5% of disbursals**, down from 7–9% early 2023, with most reduction occurring over a year ago.

---

# 3. Device & Merchant Adoption

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Device Run-Rate Target:** **13–14 lakh** devices/quarter (H2 FY24)
   *   **Merchant Penetration:** **~25%** of merchants using soundboxes (up from 10% two years ago)
   * Devices Deployed: **4 crore** merchants
   * TAM for Reactivation: 183 million dormant UPI users
   *   **Employee Headcount Guidance:** **31,000–35,000** (ongoing expansion)

## B. Soundbox Penetration
   *   **Strategic Scaling:** Device additions on track to return to pre-pandemic run-rate, with strong focus on embedding soundboxes as core growth lever despite low current revenue contribution.
   *   **Adoption Inflection:** New merchants increasingly adopting soundboxes from day one, enabling immediate subscription monetization and signaling a structural shift in onboarding behavior.
   *   **Long-Term Vision:** Management targets **100% incremental adoption** of soundboxes for new and transitioning merchants, prioritizing quality over penetration metrics.

## C. Device Reactivation
   *   **Reactivation Over Recovery:** Inactive merchants are actively re-engaged first; device recovery and refurbishment occur only after prolonged inactivity or explicit opt-out.
   *   **Targeted Re-Engagement:** Focus on high-value dormant users within a **3-crore TAM**, supported by product enhancements to boost UPI reactivation and engagement.

## D. Merchant Onboarding
   *   **Direct Device Onboarding:** Strategy shift to onboard first-time merchants directly onto soundboxes, bypassing QR-only phase to accelerate subscription revenue capture.
   *   **Sales Force Expansion:** Merchant sales teams being scaled continuously, with headcount expected to grow through festive season to support adoption goals.

---

# 4. Product & Segment Performance

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Consumer Payments Revenue:** **₹84 Cr** (quarterly)
   *   **Consumer Payments GMV:** **~20% decline** (ex-discontinued products) · **~80% revenue drop** (driven by loss of high-margin products)
   *   **India Payment Volumes Growth Outlook:** **30–45%** (expected annual range)
   *   **Loan Distribution Growth Potential:** **30–40%** (near-term runway, excluding tailwinds)
   * Loan Take Rate Guidance: 3–3.5% (current product mix dependent)

## B. Payments GMV
   *   **ARPU Resilience:** ARPU per device remains stable, with **increasing ARPU per customer** on both consumer and merchant sides driven by improved cross-selling.
   *   **Growth Levers:** Core growth strategy centered on **expanding total addressable market** via onboarding and **deepening cross-sell per customer**.
   *   **GMV Momentum:** Merchant-side GMV continues to show strong growth and market share gains, despite consumer GMV headwinds from discontinued high-margin products.
   *   **Product Reset Impact:** Revenue decline disproportionately severe due to shutdown of **highly profitable services** (postpaid loans, wallet), which are not currently active with no relaunch timeline.

## C. Financial Services
   *   **Strategic Prioritization:** Financial services strategy focused on **credit, insurance, and wealth** as primary revenue drivers, all bottom-line accretive, with advertising a by-product.
   *   **Credit Scaling, Insurance & Wealth Building:** Credit already scaled; **merchant insurance** prioritized for now due to higher yield, while **consumer health insurance** and **wealth products** see rising investment and product development.
   *   **Future Revenue Legs:** **Mutual fund and insurance distribution** are being positioned as the **third leg** of the business, with fee-based income in mutual funds already showing strong growth.
   *   **Secured Lending Pilots:** **Secured credit products** (e.g., loan against property, gold) in integration and pilot phase; potential to shift **take rate dynamics** if scaled meaningfully.

## D. Marketing Services
   *   **Core Focus Refinement:** Strategic shift to **reinforce payments and financial services cross-sell**, with non-core marketing initiatives (e.g., events) divested to sharpen priorities.
   *   **Merchant-Centric Expansion:** **Marketing services for merchants** actively expanding through new tested offerings, aligned with commerce and sales enablement goals.

---

# 5. Technology & Partnerships

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Credit-Related GMV Target:** **5%** of GMV from credit-related UPI transactions (plausible)

## B. Bank Integrations
   *   **Balanced Economics:** Partnerships with major banks entail higher payment costs but are offset by a slightly better share of UPI incentives, resulting in overall comparable economics.  
   *   **Integration Focus:** Company is prioritizing stabilization of UPI backend integrations and rebuilding merchant relationships over wallet relaunch, due to complexities in multi-bank workflows.

## C. UPI System Stability
   *   **Resilient Infrastructure:** Migration of technology from Paytm Payments Bank to partner banks is complete, maintaining high uptime across a four-bank UPI architecture.

## D. Credit on UPI Progress
   *   **Near-Term Expansion Path:** Technology and migration are largely complete; pending enhancements with Yes Bank will enable requests to NPCI for onboarding new customers.  
   *   **Credit Growth Dynamics:** UPI credit card adoption is constrained by limited RuPay credit card issuance, with banks primarily replacing existing limits—growth remains **organic and secular**.  
   *   **Future Credit Models:** NPCI is advancing broader **credit on UPI** via overdraft facilities, offering alternative pathways to scale credit with similar MDR implications.

---

# 6. Client & Credit Risks

## A. Regulatory Approvals
   *   **Headline:** Resumption of UPI user onboarding pending NPCI approval; management engaged in active discussions to meet milestones.
   *   **Headline:** Management expresses confidence in securing **NPCI approval for consumer onboarding within FY25**, absent unforeseen developments.

## B. Credit Environment
   *   **Headline:** Credit portfolio maintains high quality despite restrained disbursement growth, underpinned by disciplined, lender-led underwriting.
   *   **Headline:** Personal loan volumes now **sensitive to broader credit conditions** as the company has exited direct collection responsibilities.

## C. Receivables Provisioning
   *   **Headline:** One-off increase in indirect expenses due to **conservative provisioning for device merchant receivables**, particularly aged and inactive accounts.
   *   **Headline:** Provisioning policy ensures potential losses are fully captured even if recovery of devices occurs later; expense normalization expected next quarter.

---

# 7. Guidance & Outlook

## A. Profitability Path
   *   **Path to Profitability:** Firm commitment to sustainable profitability, targeting **at least one profitable quarter** in FY26 as operational clarity improves.
   *   **EBITDA Break-Even Target:** Aiming for EBITDA breakeven before ESOPs and UPI incentives, underscoring focus on core operational sustainability.
   *   **Medium-Term Margin Goal:** Management guiding toward a **15–20% EBITDA margin** by FY27–FY28, signaling confidence in margin trajectory post-stabilization.
   *   **Growth Runway Stabilized:** Leadership confirms past challenges resolved, with stable systems enabling disciplined lending and pipeline-driven growth over next 3–5 quarters.

## B. Capex Plans
   *   **Lower Capex Outlook:** Spending to be **meaningfully lower than prior year** due to redeployment of reactivated devices, improving capital efficiency.
   *   **Capex Guidance Pending:** Full-year capex remains under review, dependent on pace of device recovery; baseline quarterly spend estimated at **~1 million units**.
   *   **Seasonal Flexibility:** Capex may rise in festive quarters, with planned increase expected in the subsequent fiscal year.

## C. Market Share Recovery
   *   **Market Share Trajectory:** Despite temporary dip (Feb–May), company expects to resume **increasing market share** as operations normalize.
   *   **Strategic Market Expansion:** Leadership emphasizes growing the overall market rather than disclosing share, citing pioneering role in product category.