Sagar Cements Ltd Q3 FY2026 Concall Summary & Transcript Notes

Source transcript PDF: https://www.stockscans.in/document/x2meqf871qgjwjrck0phn4sp.pdf

# 1. Financial Performance

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Revenue:** **₹591 Cr** (+5%)
   *   **Volume:** **+8% YoY**
   *   **EBITDA:** **₹38 Cr** (flat) · **₹254/tonne** (Q3)
   *   **9M EBITDA per tonne:** **₹478/tonne** (vs. target of ₹600+)
   *   **Gross Debt:** **₹1,627 Cr** (₹1,320 Cr long-term)
   *   **Net Worth:** **₹1,694 Cr**
   *   **Cash & Bank Balances:** **₹83 Cr**
   *   **Net Debt (FY-end projection):** **₹1,450 Cr**

## B. Revenue & Volume
   *   **Resilient Volume Growth:** Cement volumes rose at a strong pace despite muted pricing, reflecting healthy demand and market share gains.
   *   **Revenue-Margin Decoupling:** Top-line expansion outpaced input cost inflation, though **flat EBITDA** indicates limited margin conversion in Q3.

## C. EBITDA & Margins
   *   **Profitability Recovery in Progress:** Full-year EBITDA per tonne expected to reach **₹500–525**, supported by Q4 improvement to **₹550/tonne**, despite missing initial ₹600+ target.
   *   **Cost Pressures Weighing:** Below-target margins attributed to delayed price realization and **elevated depreciation** from recent CapEx ramp-up.
   *   **Operating Leverage Building:** All units expected to contribute to margin recovery, led by Andhra Cements’ turnaround and scale benefits.

## D. Balance Sheet
   *   **Debt Reduction Focus:** Proceeds prioritized for **net debt reduction**, targeting ₹1,450 Cr by FY-end, with debt-to-equity at **78:1** signaling moderate leverage.
   *   **Stable Liquidity Profile:** Cash balance of ₹83 Cr supports near-term obligations, while finance costs remain stable at **~₹50 Cr/quarter**.

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# 2. Volume & Demand Trends

## A. Key Figures
   * Full-Year Volume Target: 6 million tonne (revised up from 5.8 million)
   *   **Regional Growth Guidance (FY26):** High-single-digit (AP & TS) · Flat to marginal (TN) · **3–5%** (KA)

## B. Regional Demand
   *   **Near-Term Softness:** Subdued 3Q demand, especially in first half, due to extended monsoons impacting construction activity.
   *   **Stable Outlook:** Full-year regional growth expectations unchanged, with strongest momentum anticipated in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.

## C. Pricing Realization
   *   **Selective Price Discipline:** Implemented ₹15–20 hikes in non-trade segments across South India and ₹10 in MP; trade segment realizations lagged due to Pongal, capturing only ₹5–10.
   *   **Cautious Stance on Sustainability:** Current prices below Q1 highs; management assumes only moderate improvement, with uncertainty on post-March sustainability despite March capacity additions.

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# 3. Cost Structure & Efficiency

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Power and Fuel Cost:** **₹1,408/tonne** (↓ from ₹1,456) · **Freight Cost:** **₹830/tonne** (↓ from ₹835)
   *   **Operating Cost:** **₹4,800/tonne** at Andhra Cement · **₹3,900/tonne** stand-alone (Jajpur & Gudipadu)
   *   **Cost Reduction Target:** **₹250/tonne** YoY gain at Andhra Cement post-preheater commissioning

## B. Fuel & Power Strategy
   *   **Fuel Mix Shift:** Transition from pet coke to Indian and imported coal to counter **~15% fuel cost inflation** and enhance cost resilience.
   *   **Stable Input Outlook:** Power and fuel costs expected to remain flat this quarter, with savings limited to operational efficiencies.

## C. Plant-Level Cost Dynamics
   *   **Cost Convergence Underway:** Andhra Cement’s high operating cost reflects freight and energy mix disadvantages, but gap with **Mattampally** is narrowing.
   *   **Efficiency Gains Materializing:** New preheater driving **₹250/tonne cost reduction**, supporting margin improvement and parity with best-in-class plants.
   *   **Inventory Optimization:** Reduced to one-quarter-ahead coverage, lowering exposure to input cost volatility.

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# 4. Manufacturing & Capacity

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Plant Utilisation:** **57%** Mattampally · **82%** Gudipadu · **66%** Bayyavaram · **95%** Jeerabad · **40%** Jajpur · **39%** Dachepalli
   *   **Electrical Consumption (up to clinker):** **51 units** Andhra · **52 units** Mattampally
   *   **Thermal Energy Consumption:** **~720 Kcal/kg** Andhra · **725–730 Kcal/kg** Mattampally
   *   **CapEx:** **₹291 Cr** FY2027
   *   **WHRS Savings (Gudipadu):** **₹100–125/tonne** net saving up to clinkerisation
   *   **Grinding Mill Savings:** **₹150–200/tonne** (Jeerabad, from early FY27) · **₹25–50/tonne** (Andhra, from Aug 2026)

## B. Plant Utilisation
   *   **Divergent Utilisation:** Significant variation across plants, with **Jeerabad at near-full capacity (95%)** and **Jajpur & Dachepalli underutilised (<40%)**, indicating lumpy demand absorption and ramp-up challenges.
   *   **Efficiency Gains:** Electrical consumption at Andhra improved sharply post-commissioning, now matching or exceeding legacy units despite lack of WHRS.

## C. Capacity Additions
   *   **Near-Term Expansion:** Dachepalli cement capacity addition expected by **August 2026**, supported by completed 6-stage preheater; Jeerabad set to grow 50% to **15 million tonnes** by early Q1 FY2027.
   *   **CapEx Roadmap:** FY2027 CapEx set at ₹291 Cr, with major investments planned from **end-FY2028 to early FY2029** for long-term capacity uplift to **5 crore tonnes**.
   *   **Competitive Lull:** No peer capacity additions expected in next six months; **Ramco’s Kolimigundla Line-2** to enter service before end of next fiscal.

## D. Energy Efficiency
   *   **Technology-Driven Parity:** Andhra achieves best-in-class thermal efficiency despite no WHRS, outperforming Mattampally on specific consumption due to advanced preheater design.
   *   **Renewables Gap:** Mattampally runs on **~90% green power**, while Andhra remains grid-dependent with only a **6 MW solar plant** online, highlighting sustainability divergence.
   *   **Upcoming Leverage:** Gudipadu’s **35 MW WHRS** (FY2026 commissioning) and new grinding mills at Jeerabad and Andhra to deliver **material cost savings per tonne** as projects come online.

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# 5. Product & Geography Mix

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Product Mix:** **55% OPC**, **45% blended cement**

## B. Cement Product Mix
   *   **OPC-Dominant Portfolio:** Product mix skewed toward OPC due to regional market preferences, resulting in **higher relative production costs** versus blended cement peers.

## C. Sales by Region
   *   **Concentrated Regional Exposure:** Nearly **56% of sales** derived from Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, indicating high dependence on South-Central India.
   *   **Emerging Western & Eastern Demand:** Combined ~20% contribution from Maharashtra, Gujarat, Odisha, and Madhya Pradesh signals early traction in new corridors.

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# 6. Risks & Input Costs

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Fuel Price Guidance:** **2%–3%** increase expected next year
   *   **Coal Cess Benefit:** **₹50–₹55/tonne** quarterly, incremental value in **Q4**, full impact by year-end
   * Domestic Coal Price: Increased from ₹1.26 in Q2 to ₹1.72 in current quarter
   * Singareni Coal Cost: Landed as-fired cost at Mattampally is sub ₹1.20

## B. Fuel Price Volatility
   *   **Stable Near-Term Costs:** No expected increase in power and fuel costs for current FY despite pet coke volatility, due to strategic shift to domestic and imported coal.
   *   **Cost Competitiveness:** Coal cess of ₹400/tonne has offset rising pet coke prices, making coal more economical despite flat coal pricing.
   *   **Regional Mix Complexity:** Product mix and regional variations in raw material and coal costs limit cross-unit comparability.
   *   **Current Pricing Reflects Real-Time Trends:** Q2 FY26 figures are not rebased; updated costs reflect actual as-fired fuel mix and current market conditions, not restatements.

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# 7. Guidance & Outlook

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Vizag Land Net Proceeds:** **₹350 Cr** (after expenses and taxes)
   *   **CapEx FY26:** **₹489 Cr** (₹303 Cr spent in 9 months, ₹186 Cr in Q4)
   * Debt-Equity Target: ~0.5x within 18–24 months post-debt repayment

## B. FY 2026 Targets
   *   **Conservative Guidance:** Maintains prior outlook despite **stronger-than-expected demand**, signaling disciplined forecasting.
   *   **Asset Monetization:** Full Vizag land sale expected within 18 months, with proceeds received in **5–6 tranches** due to local market constraints.
   *   **Cost Convergence:** Andhra-Mattampally cost gap to narrow gradually, though **energy sourcing differences** will sustain a structural divergence.
   *   **Capital Discipline:** No major CapEx beyond FY26; maintenance spend to wind down by end of next fiscal, enabling deleveraging.

## C. FY 2027 Projections
   *   **Volume Visibility:** FY27 target of 7 million tonnes reaffirmed, underpinning confidence in demand durability.
   *   **Andhra Cement Path to Profitability:** Near breakeven achieved; expected to turn profitable this quarter if current **pricing momentum holds**.