Star Cement Ltd Q2 FY2026 Concall Summary & Transcript Notes

Source transcript PDF: https://www.stockscans.in/document/k7weirmy36hyw29ud8czvdv9.pdf

# 1. Financial Performance

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Quarterly Revenue:** **₹811 Cr** (+26% YoY) · **H1 FY25 Revenue:** **₹1,723 Cr** (+24% YoY)
   *   **Quarterly EBITDA:** **₹194 Cr** (+100% YoY) · **H1 FY25 EBITDA:** **₹424 Cr** (+97% YoY)
   *   **Quarterly PAT:** **₹71 Cr** (+1083% YoY) · **H1 FY25 PAT:** **₹159 Cr** (+327% YoY)

## B. Revenue Growth
   *   **Regional Price Divergence:** Northeast prices stabilized after an **Rs. 8 increase** in Q2, while Bihar and West Bengal saw Q2 declines of **Rs. 5** and **Rs. 7**, respectively.
   *   **Operational Impact:** Q2 per-ton EBITDA was **lower by ₹100** due to planned shutdown costs, with recovery expected in Q3.

## C. Profitability Trends
   *   **Exceptional Bottom-Line Growth:** PAT surged on strong operating leverage and cost control, despite **annual shutdown costs of ₹13–14 Cr** recurring in Q2.
   *   **YoY Margin Expansion:** EBITDA margin improved significantly, with a **₹14–15 Cr** favorable swing expected in Q3 as shutdown costs lapse.

## D. Margin Performance
   *   **Policy-Driven Margin Support:** Bihar’s state policy to provide **₹400–500/tonne margin benefit** will enhance returns at the Begusarai unit, offsetting logistics costs.

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# 2. Volume & Demand Trends

## A. Key Figures
   * Cement Sales: 7.64 lakh tons Northeast (+2%) · 3.09 lakh tons Outside Northeast (+45%)
   * Volume Guidance: 5.4–5.5 million tons FY26E (16% growth YTD)
   *   **FY27 Volume Growth Outlook:** **12%** despite regional constraints

## B. Regional Sales Mix
   *   **Northeast Drives Growth:** Cement sales in the Northeast posted strong double-digit volume gains, underpinned by robust 8%-9% regional demand growth and high import dependency due to attractive margins.
   *   **Emerging Infrastructure Pipeline:** Significant incremental demand expected from Arunachal Pradesh’s dam and hydro projects, though execution has not yet commenced.
   *   **Sales Penetration Beyond Region:** Cement shipments outside the Northeast surged on a low base, reflecting expanded market reach despite structural challenges.

## C. Trade vs Non-Trade
   *   **Trade-Dominated Portfolio:** Trade sales remain the core channel at **80%** of volumes, with non-trade at **20%** and premium products representing a negligible **1%** share.

## D. Volume Guidance
   *   **Confident Full-Year Outlook:** FY26 volume guidance unchanged with strong momentum in Q1 and resilient October demand, particularly in the Northeast, offsetting election-related concerns for Q4.
   *   **Sustained Growth Trajectory:** Double-digit volume growth expected next year despite temporary clinker shortages impacting the Siliguri plant and no new geographic expansions.

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# 3. Capacity & Expansion

## A. Key Figures
   * Clinker Capacity: 6 Mn ton current · +4 Mn ton planned in Rajasthan/Haryana region
   *   **Bihar Plant CAPEX:** **₹500 Cr** (2 Cr ton grinding unit)
   * Nimbol CAPEX: ₹2,400–2,500 Cr (3 Mn ton clinker + 4 Mn ton grinding)
   *   **AAC Block Utilization:** **~60%** off-season (18,900 CBN vs 16,000 nameplate)

## B. Project Pipeline
   *   **Bihar First:** Groundbreaking priority given to **Bihar grinding unit** (2 Cr ton) to capture East/Central markets and improve clinker utilization, despite **Jorhat land being acquired**; project deferred due to Silchar focus.
   *   **Rajasthan Dual-Track Strategy:** **Nimbol** prioritized over Jaisalmer for central North reach; **Jaisalmer** retained as future hub with strategic mine presence secured.
   *   **Northeast Long Game:** **Umrangso clinker plant** (18 Cr ton reserves) remains on track with land and mining rights secured; environmental clearances underway—**critical enabler for Jorhat grinding unit**.
   *   **Strategic CAPEX Discipline:** Expansion fully self-funded; **Bihar CAPEX revised up to ₹500 Cr** from initial ₹300 Cr, reflecting cost realism.

## C. Commissioning Timeline
   *   **Silchar Imminent:** Commissioning expected **within 3 months** (by Jan CY), adding 2 Cr ton capacity and de-risking Northeast supply.
   *   **Bihar Operational in 2–3 Years:** Plant initiation expected in **3–5 months**, with commissioning targeted **H1 FY28**, contingent on demand and approvals.
   *   **Rajasthan & Umrangso by 2030:** Both projects expected online by **FY29–FY30**, with Rajasthan benefiting from faster **2–3 year construction cycle**; Umrangso timing demand-driven.
   *   **Logistics Optimization:** Long-haul clinker transport from Lumshnong to Begusarai (1,050 km) to use **70 km road + rail rake**, with plant sited near **rail siding** for efficiency.

## D. Capacity Utilization
   *   **AAC Block Off-Season Strength:** Achieved **~60% utilization** in early operations (18,900 CBN vs 16,000 capacity), signaling strong initial demand and execution capability.

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# 4. Product & Segment Mix

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Cement Blend Mix:** **16% OPC** · **84% PPC**
   *   **AAC Block Revenue:** **₹13–14 Cr** Q2 FY26 · **₹50–60 Cr** expected full-year FY26
   *   **New Product Revenue (AAC + Chemicals + RMC):** **₹80–90 Cr** expected FY26
   *   **AAC Margin Guidance:** **12%–15%** expected EBITDA margin

## B. New Product Launches
   *   **Strategic Expansion:** Entry into **construction chemicals** marks a diversification push, with initial revenue contribution expected in next quarter’s reporting.
   *   **Integrated Growth Push:** Combined new product line (AAC, chemicals, RMC) targeted for **₹80–90 Cr** in FY26, driven by branding and distribution reach rather than near-term profitability.

## C. AAC Block Performance
   *   **Scaling Production:** AAC revenue scaled from **minimal Q2 contribution** to full-year guidance of **₹50–60 Cr**, reflecting successful ramp-up to full production capacity.
   *   **Margin Profile:** AAC business expected to deliver **12%–15% margins**, a positive mix contributor, though exposed to **fly ash and cement input volatility**.
   *   **Distribution Synergy:** Leverages existing cement logistics network, enabling dual-product delivery to **non-trade customers and dealers**, enhancing channel efficiency.

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# 5. Cost & Input Factors

## A. Key Figures
   * Fuel Cost: ₹1.25/kcal (down from ₹1.35) · ₹1.25–1.3/GCV (industry-low)
   *   **Fuel Mix:** **80% FSA** · **20% biomass & other coal (incl. Nagaland)**
   *   **Coal Stockpile:** **5–6 months** (~283,000 tonnes)

## B. Fuel Cost Advantage
   *   **Significant Cost Decline:** Fuel costs fell sharply QoQ to an industry-low level, supported by favorable stockpile quality and current allocations.
   *   **Stable Outlook:** Costs expected to remain broadly stable in Q3 due to low burn rate and secured supply mix.
   *   **Strategic Stockpile Benefit:** Prior-year delayed SSA supplies created a high-quality, low-cost inventory advantage now being realized.

## C. Coal Stockpile Level
   *   **Extended Runway:** Robust stockpile covers 5–6 months of consumption, insulating operations from near-term coal price volatility.
   *   **Cost Protection:** Stockpile sufficient to prevent any increase in coal expenses for at least the next 5 months.

## D. Limestone Access
   *   **Cost Reduction Initiative:** Active efforts to secure non-option mines in Nimbol to lower limestone input costs ahead of plant development.
   *   **Northeast Expansion:** Ambuja secured limestone mine auctions in the Northeast 5–6 months ago, though land allocation from district council remains pending.

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# 6. Risks & Competition

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Financial Impact of GST Change:** **₹130–150/ton** reduction in reimbursement benefit

## B. Pricing Pressure
   *   **Competitive Intensity in Key Markets:** Management acknowledges intense competition in Bihar from **JK Cement** and smaller players, with price declines, but views the market as strategically vital due to its status as East India’s fastest-growing region.
   *   **Market Share Defense Strategy:** Plans to leverage the **Siliguri plant** to strengthen positioning ahead of Bihar unit launch, aiming to maintain share while protecting pricing and curbing external inflows.
   *   **Clinker Ramp-Up Neutral Outlook:** Dalmia does not expect volume or pricing disruption from its own clinker plant ramp-up, citing stable regional demand dynamics.
   *   **Unit Economics Protection:** Relies on **logistical optimization** and **state incentives**, including a **300% SGST benefit**, to offset structural cost pressures.

## C. Market Entry Risks
   *   **Ambuja Entry: Uncertainty with Constructive Outlook:** While the impact of Ambuja’s potential entry remains uncertain, management expects industry participants to prioritize long-term profitability over aggressive share grabs.

## D. Regulatory Impact
   *   **Bihar Incentive-Driven Investment:** The **300% SGST benefit** under Bihar’s industrial policy is a key driver for plant development, enhancing project economics despite recent headwinds.
   *   **GST Rate Cut Impact:** Recent reduction in GST rates has diminished the effective reimbursement benefit, creating a per-ton financial headwind now being managed through operational levers.
   *   **Northeast Market Leadership:** Dalmia holds the **leading market position in the Northeast**, facing limited competition from 3–4 regional unlisted players, supporting pricing control.
   *   **Long-Term Competitive Balance:** Management expects the market structure to remain balanced, underpinning confidence in sustained margin resilience despite new entrants.

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# 7. Guidance & Outlook

## A. Key Figures
   * EBITDA/PAT per Ton: ₹1,650 QoQ (+vs. ₹995.10 YoY) · ₹1,715 H1 (+vs. ₹1,000 YoY)
   *   **CAPEX (H1 FY26-27):** **₹211 Cr** incurred
   *   **CAPEX (FY26 Full Year):** **₹710–720 Cr** projected (₹500–510 Cr in H2)
   *   **Incentive Income:** **₹56 Cr** in Q · **₹118–120 Cr** in 1H · **₹180–190 Cr** estimated for FY26

## B. EBITDA per Ton
   *   **Exceptional Margin Expansion:** EBITDA/PAT per ton surged to ₹1,650 in Q and ₹1,715 in H1, reflecting **strong double-digit improvement** driven by operational leverage and cost optimization.
   *   **Outlook Above Guidance:** Current performance exceeds the guided range of ₹1,500–1,550 per ton, suggesting **upside potential to full-year profitability**.

## C. CAPEX Plan
   *   **Strategic Deployment:** Full-year CAPEX of ~₹720 Cr focused on commissioning the **Silchar plant**, building a **42 MW solar facility in Assam**, and securing land in **Umrangso (Bihar)** and **Jorhat**.
   *   **Next-Gen Expansion:** FY27 outlay hinges on finalizing the roadmap, with **Bihar grinding unit** as the primary investment focus; **Rajasthan project** remains contingent on approvals.
   *   **Transparency Commitment:** Management to release a **detailed CAPEX and expansion plan within 1–1.5 months**, enhancing visibility into medium-term capital allocation.

## D. Incentive Projections
   *   **Stable Incentive Pool:** Despite a slower realization pace—extending from 5 to **6–7 years**—the total benefit remains intact within the existing 15-year framework.
   *   **Material Contribution:** Incentive income remains a key earnings driver, with **₹180–190 Cr expected in FY26**, supported by ₹118–120 Cr already recognized in 1H.