Key Takeaways
- EPC-only margin resets at ~14.5%: The historical 24-25% margin included high-margin wind IPP revenue now gone; the EPC business alone runs at ~14.5%, and management expects data center revenue to lift blended margins the same way wind once did.
- Data center revenue is negligible this year, material next: Chennai is operational and Gurgaon is deploying, but FY26 data center revenue is guided to just INR25-30 crores. FY27 is the step-change year at INR100-200 crores, with more precision promised by Q3.
- Order book momentum supports ~40-50% CAGR for two years: FY26 order intake targeted at ~INR3,500 crores, monthly revenue planned at INR300 crores, and the backlog-to-execution ratio sits at ~3x.
- FGD policy uncertainty is contained, not resolved: Government classification into Categories A/B/C has slowed the segment, but existing orders at Kota (Category A) and Jhalawar (60%+ complete) face limited risk; NTPC is proceeding. Guidelines are expected shortly.
- What to watch next quarter: Chennai data center CWIP capitalization and first revenue, the Mumbai edge data center commercialization by December, and any FGD policy guideline release that unlocks the 5 GW/year opportunity.
Data Center Build-Out: The Next Margin Engine
- Chennai (operational): First 5 MW hyper-density phase complete, inaugurated 27 August, with an order from a leading media production studio for animation and VFX workloads. Full capacity deployment targeted by December end. The site is considered eligible for AI-backed application and cloud deployment.
- Gurgaon edge (deploying): 200 kW edge data center deployment complete and now allocating capacity to end customers.
- Mumbai edge (H2 FY26): Work has begun; expected to be commercialized by December. Discussions are ongoing with an Indian conglomerate to lease 100% of capacity upon commissioning.
- Noida hyperscale (H2 FY26 partial): An 18 MW facility under a RailTel concession; construction is ongoing with partial completion and commissioning expected in H2 FY26.
- Kolkata (mid-to-late 2027): Master layout ready, preconstruction started; first phase commissioning between mid and late 2027.
- Pipeline beyond owned sites: Negotiating 4-5 Tier 2/3 locations (Gandhinagar, Indore, Bhopal) with global hyperscale customers; New Delhi, Hyderabad, and Guwahati targeted for future edge data centers under the RailTel contract. Multiple inquiries from distributors and channel partners are being actively pursued.
- Active funnel: INR100 crores plus key large cloud opportunities.
- Strategic partner timing: Discussions are ongoing with multiple foreign and domestic entities, but management will wait for right valuations now that assets are generating revenue rather than selling early.
Gupta: "we would ideally like to possibly continue deploying that capacity and wait for right valuations because once we have taken the call of boldly going into a market on our own strength, then better to see the entire cycle and then look out for a strategic partner who is willing to give those valuations, which come with an asset which is generating revenue."
EPC Business: Compressed Schedules, Steady Margins
- Revenue seasonality is structural: Q1 typically contributes no more than ±15% of full-year turnover, with Q2 at 20%+, Q3 at 25%+, and Q4 at ~35%. Results are not comparable on a QoQ basis.
- Compressed execution is a productivity tailwind: Delays in client land acquisition have shortened the window to meet COD dates, which forces faster deployment of mechanized equipment, skilled labor, and local procurement. That compresses establishment costs and improves working capital efficiency.
- Margin benchmark set at 14% plus/minus: This is the EPC-only margin now that legacy wind IPP revenue (which once contributed INR200 crores at 80% EBITDA) has dwindled to INR15-20 crores from a residual 20 MW. The data center business is expected to lift blended margins the same way wind once did.
- Working capital held flat despite 50% growth: Debtors stood at only INR600 crores. A temporary June spike reversed in July when INR250 crores was realized, likely as government MOP funds were released. Management expects the working capital cycle to remain in a similar range.
- Debt-free with cash surplus: The company monetized all renewable power and transmission assets over the past few years, generating a cash surplus of INR1,500 crores with no haircut on any asset.
Gupta: "The Q1 is generally not a plus/minus 15% of the full year turnover, followed by 20% plus in Q2, 25% plus in Q3 and around 35% in Q4."
FGD: Policy Limbo, Limited Downside
- The policy brake: After a NITI Aayog report, the government classified FGD requirements into Category A, B, and C based on population (0.1 crore and above) and powerhouse proximity within 10 km. This has slowed the segment, and management calls the space "debatable even now."
- Existing orders are largely protected: Kota is Category A and must see completion by policy. Jhalawar is Category C but already beyond 60% complete. NTPC has taken the call to proceed with its ongoing projects. Management sees no major threat to the existing book.
- The upside case: If the Ministry of Environment and Forests classifies more plants under Category A, the segment could see business of ~5 GW per year from state electricity boards and some from the private sector. Guidelines are expected shortly.
Gupta: "I think this is a debatable space even now... government has under some prudence classified requirements on category A, B and C, believing the cost of deploying the solution is not value driven."
Smart Meters & Transmission: Steady, Not Speculative
- Smart meter deployment on track: Installation is running at 80,000 to 1 lakh meters per month with no problems. All 0.25 crore meters are to be completed by September 2026; by end of this year, 0.17-0.18 crore meters will be done.
- Deliberately capped exposure: Management is not pursuing smart meters aggressively and will keep exposure at no more than 3-5% of the portfolio due to counterparty risk.
- Transmission bidding pipeline: Techno targets INR2,500 crores per year for the next 4 years from transmission bidding. Substations of 765 to 220 kV level are planned at more than 20 locations countrywide, including four 220x66 kV GIS substations at the highest altitude in the country across Ladakh and Kashmir, three of which will complete during the year.
- Thermal EPC opportunity: The company intends to capture ~INR500 crores per year from thermal EPC.
Financial Outlook: Growth Anchored, Margins to Inflect Later
- FY26 revenue target: INR3,500 crores, implying monthly revenue of INR300 crores. Growth of ~25% is expected for FY26-27.
- EPS trajectory: INR50 forecast for the current year, ~INR75 for next year.
- CWIP capitalization timeline: Chennai data center CWIP capitalizes in Q2; AMI and TBCB assets capitalize by year-end.
- Overall margin improvement will come from data center and AMI asset-based businesses, not from EPC margin expansion. Management declined to give a ballpark blended margin number and asked investors to wait until Q3 for a fuller discussion.
- Discontinued operations reflect arrears receivable from DISCOMs for power supplied in prior years before asset monetization in 2023. These are accounted on a receipt basis only, a conservative policy given ongoing regulatory disputes.
Guidance & Commitments
| Commitment | Specifics | Timeline |
|---|---|---|
| FY26 order intake | ~INR3,500 crores | FY26 |
| Revenue growth rate | ~40-50% CAGR | Next 2 years |
| FY26 revenue | INR3,500 crores (~25% growth) | FY26 |
| FY26 EPS | INR50 | FY26 |
| FY27 EPS | ~INR75 | FY27 |
| EPC margin benchmark | 14% plus/minus | Ongoing |
| Chennai data center full capacity deployment | 5 MW phase complete | By December end |
| Mumbai edge data center commercialization | Operational | By December |
| Noida data center partial commissioning | Partial completion | H2 FY26 |
| Kolkata data center first phase | Commissioned | Mid-to-late 2027 |
| Smart meter completion | All 0.25 crore meters | By September 2026 |
| Smart meter exposure cap | No more than 3-5% of portfolio | Ongoing |
| Transmission bidding target | INR2,500 crores per year | Next 4 years |
| Thermal EPC target | ~INR500 crores per year | Ongoing |
| Data center revenue FY26 | INR25-30 crores | FY26 |
| Data center revenue FY27 | INR100-200 crores | FY27 |
| Data center margin/return precision | Detailed discussion | Q3 FY26 |
| Strategic partner for data center | Decision after assets generate revenue and valuations improve | No fixed date |
Key Metrics
| Metric | Q1 FY26 |
|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹515 cr, up 25% YoY |
| EBITDA | ₹80 cr, up 42% YoY |
| EBITDA margin | 15.6%, vs 13.7% YoY |
| Other income | ~₹58 cr, vs ₹23 cr YoY |
| Profit before tax | ₹124 cr, up 64% YoY |
| PAT | ₹99 cr, up 78% YoY |
| EPS | ₹10.70 per share |
| Unexecuted order book | ₹1,408 cr as of June end |
| L1 and advanced-stage orders | ₹720 cr |
| Expected FY26 order intake | ~₹3,500 cr |
| Monthly revenue run-rate | ₹300 cr planned for FY26, up from ₹200 cr in FY25 |
| Current investments | ₹2,250 cr, ~₹200 per share as of 30 June 2025 |
| Cash in hand (standalone) | ~₹2,500 cr plus |
| Smart meters deployed | ~0.08 cr of 0.25 cr won concessions; target ~0.17 cr by year-end |
| Chennai data center phase 1 | 5 MW ready; invested ~₹500 cr |
| FY26 revenue guidance | ₹3,500 cr, intact |
| FY26 EPS guidance | ₹50, intact |
| FY27 EPS guidance | ~₹75 |