Vedanta Ltd Q3 FY2026 Concall Summary & Transcript Notes

Source transcript PDF: https://www.stockscans.in/document/6jc7ykw01wj41713cg1vjaoz.pdf

# 1. Financial Performance

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Revenue:** ₹45,899 Cr 3Q FY26 (+19% YoY) · ₹122,551 Cr 9M FY26 (+10% YoY)
   *   **EBITDA:** ₹15,171 Cr 3Q FY26 (+34% YoY) · ₹37,529 Cr 9M FY26 (+18% YoY)
   *   **PAT:** ₹7,807 Cr 3Q FY26 (+60% YoY) · ₹15,744 Cr 9M FY26 (+1% YoY)
   *   **EBITDA Margin:** 41% 3Q FY26 (+629 bps YoY) · 37% 9M FY26 (+281 bps YoY)
   * **Net Debt / EBITDA:** 1.23x 3Q FY26 (vs. 1.40x YoY) · **Cash & Equivalents:** ₹20,085 Cr

## B. Revenue Growth
   *   **Record Top-Line Performance:** Revenue surged to a record high in Q3, driven by **higher LME prices, increased volumes, and forex gains**, partially offset by lower premiums.
   *   **Segment Divergence:** Copper segment delivered **49% YoY revenue growth**, while Iron Ore and Steel faced headwinds with **5% growth and 11% decline**, respectively.
   *   **FACOR & Power Outperformance:** FACOR posted **43% YoY revenue growth**, and power operations showed strong momentum with **robust EBITDA expansion**.

## C. Profitability Trends
   *   **Margin Expansion Accelerates:** EBITDA margin reached a near-record 41%, boosted by **cost optimization, favorable forex, and higher commodity prices**, excluding custom smelting impact.
   *   **Strong Bottom-Line Growth:** PAT nearly doubled QoQ and rose **60% YoY**, reflecting operating leverage and **declining finance costs** despite higher taxes.
   *   **Capital Efficiency Improves:** ROCE rose to **~27%**, a **296 bps YoY improvement**, signaling enhanced return on deployed capital.

## D. Balance Sheet Health
   *   **Debt Metrics Sharply Improved:** Net debt/EBITDA halved to **2.3x** from 4.0x YoY, supported by strong cash flows and **refinancing of $550 million high-cost debt**.
   *   **Credit Profile Strengthened:** All three global agencies (**S&P, Moody’s, Fitch**) revised outlook to **'Positive'**, while CRISIL and ICRA reaffirmed **AA ratings** post-demerger.
   *   **Liquidity & Maturity Management:** Average debt maturity extended to **~5 years**, interest cost reduced to **~10%**, and **79% INR-denominated debt** reduces forex risk.

## E. Cash Flow Profile
   *   **Robust Liquidity Position:** Cash and equivalents held at **₹20,085 crore**, invested in high-quality instruments under a disciplined policy.
   *   **Shareholder Returns Intact:** Company paid **₹23 per share dividend** and delivered **5-year TSR of 428%**, underscoring capital return strength.
   *   **FX Gains Reverse Drag:** Exchange gains of **₹141 crore** in Q3 reversed prior losses, providing a meaningful boost to income.

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# 2. Volume & Production

## A. Key Figures
   * Iron Ore Production: 1.6 Mmt 3QFY26 (+4%) · 4.5 Mmt 9MFY26 (+8%)
   *   **Steel Production:** **325 kt** 3QFY26 · **948 kt** 9MFY26
   *   **Copper Cathode Production:** **45 kt** 3QFY26 · **128 kt** 9MFY26 (+22%)
   *   **Ferrochrome Production:** **24 kt** 3QFY26 (+32%) · **71 kt** 9MFY26
   *   **Alumina Production:** **794 kt** Q3 · **2,034 kt** 9M (record high)
   *   **Aluminium Production:** **620 kt** Q3 · **1,842 kt** 9M (record high)
   *   **Mined Metal (HZL):** **276 kt** 3QFY26 (+4%) · **799 kt** 9MFY26 (+2%)
   *   **Refined Zinc Production:** **221 kt** 3QFY26 (+8%) · **624 kt** 9MFY26 (+2%)
   *   **Refined Lead Production:** **49 kt** 3QFY26 (-11%) · **142 kt** 9MFY26 (-16%)
   * Oil & Gas Production: 84.9 kboepd 3QFY26 (-15%) · 89.1 kboepd 9MFY26 (-16%)

## B. Metal Output
   *   **Record-Setting Performance:** Alumina, aluminium, and mined metal achieved all-time high quarterly and 9-month production, driven by **Train II commissioning** and **Gamsberg ramp-up**.
   *   **Strong Volume Growth:** Zinc International output surged **38% YoY** for 9M, led by **54% growth at Gamsberg**, offsetting declines at BMM.
   *   **Mixed Base Metals Trends:** Refined zinc production expanded, but lead and silver volumes declined **16% and 12% YoY** respectively in 9MFY26, reflecting operational shifts and depletion.
   *   **Steel Segment Resilience:** Despite flat YoY steel output, billet and TMT bar production posted **double-digit growth**, with billet hitting a **record 285 kt** in Q3.
   *   **Iron Ore & Ferrochrome Momentum:** Iron ore production rose **8% YoY** for 9M, while ferrochrome output grew **32% YoY**, signaling strong operational execution at FACOR and IOK/IOG.

## C. Oil & Gas Production
   *   **Production Decline Continues:** Oil & gas output declined **15–16% YoY** across all metrics, driven by **natural field decline** and **reduced interventions in Cambay**, despite partial recovery in 9MFY26.
   *   **Operational Milestone Achieved:** India’s **first subsea template installation** completed, marking a key technical advancement for future deepwater development.
   *   **Active Drilling Campaign:** **Three wells drilled** across RDG, Saraswati, and Mangala; **Ambe first well drilled**, with two more planned in Q4, signaling continued investment despite volume headwinds.
   *   **Gas Outpaces Oil Decline:** Gas production fell **20% YoY** for 9M, less steeply than oil’s **14% drop**, with **Cambay gas up 21% YoY**, indicating a shifting production mix.

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# 3. Product & Segment Performance

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Alumina Production:** **794 kt** (Q3, +57% YoY) · **2,034 kt** (9M, +32%)
   *   **Aluminium Production:** **620 kt** (Q3, +1% YoY) · **1,842 kt** (9M, +1%)
   *   **Aluminum Segment Revenue:** **₹16,866 Cr** (Q3, +10%) · **₹47,093 Cr** (9M, +11%)
   *   **Aluminum Segment EBITDA:** **₹7,023 Cr** (Q3, +55% YoY) · **₹17,017 Cr** (9M, +30%)
   *   **Steel Segment EBITDA:** **-₹37 Cr** (Q3) · **₹19 Cr** (9M, -95% YoY), margin at **-$13/t** (Q3)
   *   **Zinc India Refined Production:** **270 kt** (Q3, +4% YoY), **$940/t COP** (-10% YoY)
   *   **Zinc International Production:** **59 kt** (+28% YoY)
   *   **Ferrochrome Production:** **24 kt** (+32% YoY)
   *   **Power Sales Volume:** **3,901 MU** (Q3, +61% YoY) · **11,780 MU** (9M)

## B. Aluminum Business
   *   **Record Operational Output:** Alumina and aluminium production hit all-time highs, driving **record EBITDA per ton** and robust segment profitability.
   *   **Product Mix Shift:** Value-added aluminum sales rose **354 kt** in Q3, while ingot sales declined, signaling strategic shift toward higher-margin products.
   *   **Low-Carbon Expansion:** Launch of **Restora** at BALCO strengthens low-carbon portfolio amid rising ESG demand.
   *   **Strong Unit Performance:** BALCO EBITDA surged **67% YoY** in Q3, outpacing overall segment growth, reflecting operational excellence.

## C. Zinc & Lead Operations
   *   **Peak Efficiency & Output:** Zinc India achieved record mined and refined production with **lowest COP in five years**, boosting margins and cash flow.
   *   **Silver Leverage:** Silver contributed **44% of Zinc India’s profits**, with Q3 production up **10% QoQ**, enhancing exposure to rising precious metal prices.
   *   **International Growth:** Gamsberg drove **40% YoY production jump**, enabling Zinc International’s **28% output growth** and record recovery rates.

## D. Copper & Ferrochrome
   *   **Ferrochrome Surge:** Production rose **32% YoY** on improved mining and operational uptime, reversing prior quarter’s outage impact.
   *   **Copper Sales Volatility:** Cathode sales began in Q3 but rod sales dropped sharply; full-year copper sales shifted significantly in mix and volume.

## E. Power Generation
   *   **Power Sales Boom:** Sales volumes jumped **62% YoY** on new plant commissioning, fueling **188% EBITDA growth** in thermal power.
   *   **Contract Wins:** Secured **500 MW of medium-term PPAs** and a **180 MW cross-border deal with Nepal**, ensuring stable off-take.
   *   **Biomass Milestone:** Achieved **19% biomass co-firing** in Punjab, the highest YTD, supporting decarbonization and cost resilience.

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# 4. Commodity Pricing & Input Costs

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Aluminum LME Price:** **$2,827/MT** 3QFY26 (+10%) · **$2,634/MT** 9MFY26 (+6%)
   *   **Zinc LME Price:** **$3,165/MT** 3QFY26 (+4%) · **$2,880/MT** 9MFY26 (flat)
   *   **Lead LME Price:** **$1,970/MT** 3QFY26 (-2%) · **$1,961/MT** 9MFY26 (-5%)
   * Silver LBMA Price: $54.7/oz 3QFY26 (+74%) · $42.7/oz 9MFY26 (+43%)
   *   **Copper LME Price:** **$11,092/MT** 3QFY26 (+21%) · **$10,145/MT** 9MFY26 (+8%)
   * Oil Price Realization: $61.3/bbl 3QFY26 (-13%) · $64.4/bbl 9MFY26 (-14%)
   * **Brent Crude Price:** **$63.7/bbl** 3QFY26 (-15%) · **$66.9/bbl** 9MFY26 (-16%)
   * Gas Price Realization: **$12.6/mscf** 3QFY26 (-13%) · **$13.5/mscf** 9MFY26 (+4%)
   *   **Aluminum COP (Overall):** **$1,674/MT** 3QFY26 (-11%) · **$1,755/MT** 9MFY26 (-1%)
   *   **Zinc COP (w/o royalty):** **$940/MT** 3QFY26 (-10%) · **$980/MT** 9MFY26 (-9%)
   * Power Realization: ₹7.59/kWh 3QFY26 · ₹6.85/kWh 9MFY26
   * Power Cost: ₹3.23/kWh 3QFY26 · ₹3.55/kWh 9MFY26

## B. Commodity Price Trends
   *   **Strong Base Metal Gains:** Aluminum and copper prices surged with **double-digit YoY growth**, while zinc showed moderate gains and lead declined.
   *   **Silver Soars:** Silver prices nearly doubled in 3QFY26, reflecting strong precious metal momentum despite flat lead performance.
   *   **Oil Price Pressure:** Oil and gas realizations faced **broad-based YoY declines**, though 9M gas prices showed a slight recovery.

## C. Cost of Production
   *   **Aluminum Cost Efficiency:** Achieved **lowest hot metal cost in 17 quarters** driven by lower alumina input costs and improved power operations post-outage.
   *   **Zinc Cost Discipline:** Zinc CoP hit a **5-year low** in 3Q, supported by operational improvements and lower input costs, even as royalty-inclusive costs remained under control.
   *   **Divergent Power Economics:** Power realizations improved significantly YoY, but **Jharsuguda and Meenakshi** reported high per-unit costs, pressuring margins.
   *   **Coal Security:** Secured **28 million tonnes annual coal linkage** for Meenakshi and VLCTPP, ensuring fuel supply for power assets.

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# 5. Capital Projects & Expansion

## A. Key Figures
   * Growth Capex: USD 1.3bn (critical minerals expansion) · Secured 3 new mining blocks (total 11 assigned)
   *   **Debottlenecking Output:** Added **21 Ktpa refined zinc capacity** (Chanderiya, Dariba) · **142 electric forklifts** deployed (Vedanta Aluminium)

## B. Growth Capex & Strategic Acquisitions
   *   **Downstream Vertical Integration:** Acquired **Incab Industries** to strengthen downstream capabilities in **copper and aluminium**, enhancing value capture.
   *   **Multi-Commodity Expansion:** Aggressive capex across **Oil & Gas**, **Iron Ore**, **Ferrochrome**, **Steel**, and **Power**, with key project milestones scheduled through **2HFY28**.
   *   **Critical Minerals Focus:** Expansion anchored in securing and developing high-value mineral blocks, reinforcing long-term resource security.

## C. Project Ramp-Ups
   *   **Timely Commissioning Pipeline:** Multiple ramp-ups underway, including **BALCO Smelter Expansion**, **Lanjigarh**, and **Gamsberg Phase 2**, with first production targeted from **Q4FY26 to Q1FY27**.
   *   **Zinc & Aluminium Growth Trajectory:** International and domestic zinc operations set for phased volume increases, while bauxite and coal mines support smelter capacity expansion to **3 MTPA** and **90% VAP** by **FY27/FY28**.

## D. Debottlenecking Initiatives
   *   **Sustainability-Driven Efficiency:** Operational upgrades include fuel switching (**PNG from LPG**), **solar infrastructure**, and fleet electrification, delivering **lower emissions** and cost savings.
   *   **Near-Term Capacity Boost:** Completed debottlenecking at key smelters added meaningful zinc output, with further **roaster and cell house expansions** progressing through **FY26**.

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# 6. Risks & Commodity Exposure

## A. Key Figures
   *   **INR Depreciation Impact:** **~₹900–950 Cr** EBITDA benefit per ₹1 vs USD
   *   **Commodity Price Sensitivity (10% Increase):** **$26 Mn** EBITDA reduction (oil) · **$200 Mn** (zinc) · **$445 Mn** (aluminium) · **$31 Mn** (lead) · **$65 Mn** (silver)

## B. Price Volatility
   *   **Material Currency Leverage:** EBITDA highly sensitive to INR depreciation, indicating significant unhedged export revenue exposure.
   *   **Downside Risk from Metal Prices:** Aluminium and zinc price increases pose the largest earnings risks, reflecting cost structure vulnerability in key operations.
   *   **Forward-Looking Uncertainty:** Financial projections subject to material variability due to metal prices, exchange rates, and regulatory shifts.

## C. Regulatory Challenges
   *   **Credit Profile Stability:** Vedanta Limited’s **AA/Watch with Developing Implications** rating reaffirmed post-demerger approval, signaling cautious credit stance.
   *   **Parent Company Upgrade:** Vedanta Resources Limited (VRL) sees **Positive outlook** from S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch, indicating improved global creditor sentiment.
   *   **Sustainability Leadership:** Hindustan Zinc and Vedanta ranked **#1 in metals & mining** in S&P Global CSA 2025 for third straight year, enhancing ESG credentials.
   *   **Cambay Block Litigation:** Production continues under **Delhi High Court-ordered status quo** after MoPNG rejected PSC extension; final outcome remains sub-judice.

## D. Operational Constraints
   *   **Methane Reduction Commitment:** Cairn Oil & Gas achieves UNEP Gold Standard and targets **30% methane cut within 5 years**, aligning with global climate benchmarks.
   *   **Declining Exploration Write-offs:** Recent reduction in exploration cost write-offs suggests improved project screening or fewer impairments.