1. Backhoe loader business - 50%+ annual growth for 3-5 years Pending - In the Q2 FY25 PPT (Nov 2024), the backhoe loader business was targeted to achieve an annual growth rate of over 50% for the next 3-5 years, reiterated in the Q2 FY26 PPT. Growth so far has been modest - \~280 units in Q2 FY26, up 15-20% YoY, \~200 guided for Q3 FY26 and 150-160 averaging in Q1 FY27 - with management in Q3 FY26 guiding to a 30-40% increase next year and \~3x over 5 years; the horizon runs to roughly FY28-FY30 and no year has yet shown 50%+ growth.
2. FY27 defense contribution of 5-6% On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management expected defense revenue to rise from \~3% last year to 5-6% of revenue this year, upwards of ₹200-220 crores, reiterated at Q1 FY27. Q1 FY27 defense was around 4-5% of revenue, with management expecting to deliver more than the ₹200-odd crores, possibly 10-15% more.
3. FY26 volume growth of 7-8% Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected volume growth in FY26 of around 7%-8%. By Q3 FY26 the guide became flat revenue with some volume decline, and Q4 FY26 reported volumes of \~10,800 units vs \~13,300 last year, down 18-20%.
4. Kato JV functional by Q3 FY26 with immediate opportunity of ₹300-400 crores annually Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management said the Kato JV was on target to be functional by Q3 FY26, with an immediate opportunity of ₹300-400 crores annually; the Q3 FY25 call indicated revenues from H2 FY26. The JV was only finalized in Q4 FY26 and is set to commence by end of July FY27, with no FY26 JV revenue disclosed.
5. Kato JV functional by Q3 FY26 Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management said the Japanese JV (Kato) was on target to be functional by Q3 FY26, after earlier guides of completion by Q2 FY26 at the latest. The 50-50 JV was finalized in Q4 FY26 and commenced by Q1 FY27, expected by end of July 2026.
6. ₹420 crore defense order execution - ₹80-90 crores in FY26 Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management said the ₹420 crores defense order would start executing from September-October 2025 with \~₹80-90 crores in FY26, lowered at Q1 FY26 to ₹50-70 crores. Execution was pushed to Q4 pending a Ministry of Defense NOC, approvals arrived by Q4 FY26, and manufacturing of rough terrain forklifts started only in Q1 FY27 - no FY26 revenue.
7. FY26 defense contribution of \~4% Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected defense alone to be close to 4% or a little over 4% of revenue in FY26, revised to 3-4% at Q1 FY26. FY26 defense contributed close to \~3% of overall revenue, and was \~2% as of Q3 FY26.
8. FY26 EBITDA margin stable at \~17.5-17.7% Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected FY26 margins similar to or slightly expanded versus the recent \~17.5%-17.7% quarterly range, later framed as stabilizing around 16-17% with modest expansion. FY26 EBITDA margin was 18.33%, up 81 bps from 17.52%.
9. FY26 revenue growth of 14-15% Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management targeted FY26 top line growth of approximately 14% to 15%, later revised to flattish single-digit at Q2 FY26 and "flat to positive" at Q3 FY26. FY26 revenue was ₹3,280 crores, a decline of 1.40%, missing even the revised flat guidance.
10. Defence revenue to easily cross ₹80-100 crores in FY25 Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected the defence business to easily cross ₹80 crores-₹100 crores in FY25. FY25 defense was \~2% of revenue, approximately ₹66 crores on FY25 revenue of ₹3,327 crores.
11. Defence orders of ₹400-700 crores over next 2-3 months Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected really big defence orders over the next 2-3 months of ₹400 crores to ₹700 crores, later refined at Q2 FY25 to a single order over ₹400 crores within November. In Q4 FY25 the company was awarded its single largest order till date - 1,121 rough terrain forklifts/telehandlers at ₹420 crores.
12. FY25 crane, material handling and agri growth of 15-20% Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected growth of at least 15-20% in the Cranes, Material Handling, and Agri portfolios for FY25, with agri later lowered to 10-15% and then flattish. FY25 cranes/material handling/construction equipment grew 15.5% in value, while agri revenue was \~₹230 crores, roughly flat.
13. FY25 revenue growth of 15-20% Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided 15% to 20% top-line growth for FY25, later refined to "15%-plus" at Q2 FY25 and "15% to a little ahead" at Q3 FY25. FY25 revenue was ₹3,327 crores, growth of 14.18%, with total income of ₹34,274 Mn up 14.6% YoY.
14. Double revenue again in 3 years from FY24 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management said the endeavor was to double again in the forthcoming 3 years, with interim targets of ₹4,400 crores by FY26 and ₹5,500-5,600 crores by FY27, later pushed to ₹6,000-6,200 crores by FY29. FY26 revenue was ₹3,280 crores, below the ₹4,400 crore target, and Q1 FY27 revenue of ₹786 crores annualizes to \~₹3,400-3,500 crores.
15. Defense revenue of 8-10% "as soon as possible" Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management internally targeted 8% to 10% revenue contribution from defense "going forward as soon as possible", later revised to upwards of 5% over 2-3 years and 5-6% in FY27. Defense stayed at 2.5-3% in FY23, \~2.5% in FY24, \~2% in FY25 and \~3% in FY26, reaching 4-5% only in Q1 FY27.
16. CE segment to be 12-14% of revenue mix in 2-3 years, conditional on ₹4,000-5,000 cr revenue Pending - At the Q4 FY23 call, management said over the next 2-3 years, with company revenue of ₹4,000-5,000 crores, the CE segment should be about 12-14% of revenue mix. Revenue reached only ₹2,911 crores in FY24 and ₹3,280 crores in FY26, so the condition was never met; CE was \~₹387 crores in FY24 (\~13.3%) before the segment was merged into a combined disclosure.
17. Electric crane commercialization in Q2 FY24 Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management said electric crane commercialization was expected in the next quarter (Q2 FY24), with repeated delays awaiting CMVR notification through FY25 and FY26. A few single-digit units were sold in closed territories by Q3 FY25, and by Q3 FY26 batteries were still on the ARAI test bench with no full commercial launch disclosed.
18. Capex of ₹80-90 crores to enable ₹3,800-4,000 crores turnover Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management said it was incurring capex of ₹80-90 crores to enhance capacity, with potential to propel the company to a turnover of ₹3,800-4,000 crores in the near future, later raised to ₹90-100 crores for FY24. Revenue capability reached \~₹4,500 crores by Q4 FY24 and a little over ₹5,000 crores by Q1 FY26.
19. FY24 construction equipment growth of 30-35%, later 45-50% Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided 30% to 35% growth for construction equipment in FY24, raised at Q1 FY24 to at least 45-50% and reiterated at \~50%. FY24 construction equipment grew 55%.
20. FY24 crane, material handling and agri growth of 15-20% Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided growth of at least 15% to 20% in cranes, material handling and agri portfolios for FY24, with cranes later raised to at least 25%. FY24 cranes grew 37.75%, but material handling grew 8.6% and agri grew 12%.
21. FY24 export contribution of 9-10% Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management expected the export segment to contribute about 9% to 10% of overall revenues within FY24, revised at Q2 FY24 to 8-9% for the year. FY24 export contribution was 8.5% of revenue.
22. Ghana plant setup by FY24, recurring revenue from FY25 Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management said the Ghana plant setup was expected to be finished by FY24, with a steady revenue stream of ₹150-200 crores at least from FY25 onwards. Execution slipped repeatedly and by Q1 FY26 the project was "in limbo for the last 1.5-2 years" with funding stopped, kept on the back burner at Q2 FY26 - no plant completed, no recurring revenue.
23. FY23 material handling and agri growth of \~15% each Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided material handling and agri segments to grow at around 15% each during FY23, revised at Q3 FY23 to \~10% and \~15% respectively. FY23 material handling grew 11.2% and agri grew \~7%.
24. FY23 construction equipment growth of 30-35% Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided 30-35% growth in construction equipment for FY23, reiterated at Q3 FY23. FY23 construction equipment grew 42%.
25. FY23 crane segment growth of 25%+ Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management revised crane segment growth to 25%+ for FY23, reiterated at 25-30% at Q3 FY23. FY23 cranes grew 38.4% in value and volume.
26. New plant to increase bigger crane capacity 4x Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management said the new plant would increase capacity to manufacture bigger cranes by approximately four times, later framed as 4 to 5x at Q2 FY24. By Q4 FY24, capacity for bigger cranes expanded from \~50-60 units a year to 400 units, still \~400 units at Q3 FY26.
27. New bigger-cranes facility commercial production by March 2023 Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, management said the new manufacturing facility for bigger cranes would commence commercial production by March end 2023, later pushed to Q1 FY24 and then Q2 FY24. Fabrication had moved to the new plant by Q2 FY24, with the facility partially operational in Q3 FY24 and fully operational by end of Q4 FY24.
28. FY24 revenue growth of at least 15-20% Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided FY24 revenue growth of "about 15% to 20% growth at least", raised through FY24 to in excess of 32% by Q3 FY24. FY24 revenue was ₹2,911 crores, growth of 35%.
29. FY24 EBITDA margin of 12-13% Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided FY24 EBITDA margin of "somewhere between 12% to 13%". FY24 EBITDA margin was 16.5%.
30. FY23 EBITDA margin of 10.5-11% Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management projected FY23 EBITDA margin of 10.5% to 11%. FY23 EBITDA margin was 11.4%.
31. FY23 revenue growth of 15-20%, possibly 25-30% Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management expected FY23 revenue growth of "15%, 20% should be easy", possibly "around 25% 30%", raised to at least 28-30% by Q3 FY23. FY23 revenue was ₹2,160 crores, growth of 33%.
32. Mobile crane market share to cross 65-66% in next year Missed - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided mobile crane market share to cross "65%, 66%" in the next year. Share was \~65% in pick and carry cranes at Q4 FY22, 63-65% at Q1 FY23, \~63% at Q2 FY25 and \~60% in mobile and tower cranes at Q4 FY26.
33. Material handling market share of 28-30% in 1-2 years Missed - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided material handling market share to "somewhere around 28%, 30%" in the next one-two years. Material handling market share was around 25-26% as of Q4 FY23, with no later disclosure of reaching 28-30%.
34. Defence orders execution - ₹100-150 crores in FY23 Missed - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided defense revenue of "anywhere between 100 to 150 crores in FY23, if not more", with Q4 FY22 framing it as about 125 to 150 crores at least. FY23 defense contributed 2.5% to 3% of revenue, approximately ₹54-65 crores on FY23 revenue of ₹2,160 crores.
35. Number one in harvester business in next year or year after Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, CFO Rajan Luthra said ACE will be number one in the harvester business "in the coming next year or year after". As of Q3 FY26, ACE is #2 in track harvesters with \~30% market share, with no disclosure of reaching #1.
36. Inorganic acquisition within FY22 Partial - At the Q1 FY22 call, management said something should happen on the inorganic front "in this year", with Q4 FY22 guiding two smaller acquisitions over the next 15-30 days. Two acquisitions were completed in Q1 FY23, one quarter late.
37. Agri business subsidiarization within 6-12 months Missed - At the Q1 FY22 call, management said the agri business will be subsidiarized over the next six months to one year, with the process ongoing at Q2 FY22 due to the QIP. No disclosure of agri subsidiarization appears in later notes.
38. Construction equipment 40-50% CAGR over 3-5 years Missed - At the Q1 FY22 call, management expected construction equipment to deliver a 40% to 50% CAGR over the next three to five years, with a ₹500 crores sales target in three years later lowered to "300 to 400 crores by FY24". FY24 construction equipment revenue was \~₹387 crores, below the original ₹500 crore target.
39. QIP of ₹175 crores for inorganic growth Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management planned to be ready to hit the market for the ₹175 crores QIP "anytime over the next six months to one year" for inorganic growth. A QIP of \~₹135 crores was completed in September 2021.
40. 2,000 backhoe loaders per year by end of FY23 Missed - At the Q4 FY21 call, management anticipated reaching 2,000 backhoe loaders per year by end of FY23. FY22 backhoe loader volumes were 466 units, with \~131 units in Q2 FY23 and 184 units in Q3 FY23 - no disclosure of reaching 2,000 units.
41. Exports at 7-8% of revenue in FY22, 15-20% over three years Missed - At the Q4 FY21 call, management targeted exports at 7-8% of revenue in FY22 and internally 15-20% over the next three years, later revised to 9-10% within FY24 and 15-20% over 3-4 years. FY22 exports were \~₹76 crores, \~4.7% of revenue, and exports fell to 4% in FY25 and close to 3% in Q1 FY27.
42. Agri and construction equipment each similar in size to cranes in 3-5 years Missed - At the Q4 FY21 call, management expected agri and construction equipment to each become similar in revenue size to cranes over the next three to five years, with ₹2,000-3,000 crores of revenue unlockable. FY26 agri was \~₹251 crores against a \~₹2,946 crores cranes/construction/material handling segment, and construction equipment alone was \~₹387 crores in FY24.
43. Revenue doubling in three years - ₹2,500 crores by FY24 Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management reiterated that revenue could double in the next three years, with Q3 FY22 targeting ₹2,500 crores by FY24 with 13-14% EBITDA margins. FY24 revenue was ₹2,911 crores with EBITDA margin of 16.5%.
44. Agri segment revenue of ₹1,000 crores "as soon as possible" Missed - At the Q4 FY21 call, management targeted agri segment revenue of ₹1,000 crores "as soon as possible" as its immediate vision. Agri revenue was ₹198 crores in FY22, ₹237 crores in FY24, ₹230 crores in FY25 and \~₹251 crores in FY26.
45. FY22 borrowings reduction to ₹22-30 crores or zero Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management expected borrowings to come down to ₹22-30 crores in FY22 from \~₹54 crores, if not eliminated entirely, later refined to "close to zero or maybe 15 to 20 crores". The company became debt-free as on 31st March 2022.
46. FY22 construction equipment, material handling and agri growth - 25% each Partial - At the Q4 FY21 call, management expected 25% growth across construction equipment, material handling and agri for FY22, with construction equipment later fixed at 25-30%. FY22 construction equipment grew 32% to ₹176 crores and material handling grew 48% to ₹152 crores, but agri revenue was ₹198 crores, flattish/marginally down.
47. FY22 crane segment growth - 10-15% initially, raised to 15% Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management expected 10-15% growth in the Crane segment for FY22, raised to 15% at Q1 FY22. The crane business registered 40% growth in FY22 in value and volume.
48. FY22 EBITDA margin - 11-12% sustained Missed - At the Q4 FY21 call, management guided sustained EBITDA margins between 11-12% for FY22, lowered at Q2 FY22 to 10.5% to 11%. FY22 EBITDA margin was 10.3%.
49. FY22 revenue growth - at least 10% initially, raised to 15-20%, internal target 25-30% Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management guided at least 10% growth in business revenue for FY22, raised to "at least 15% to 20%" at Q1 FY22 and "at least 23-24%" at Q3 FY22. FY22 revenue crossed ₹1,600 crores, growth of 33%.