1. FY27 capex of ₹15,000-20,000 crores On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management upgraded FY27 capex guidance to approximately INR15,000 crores to INR20,000 crores for the full year. Q1 FY27 saw capex of \~INR2,958 Cr incurred; the FY27 horizon is not yet reached and the run-rate is consistent with the guided range.
2. Neemuch substation charged in June, enabling first FDRE commissionings Partial - At the Q4 FY26 call, management stated the Neemuch substation will be charged in June and will enable first FDRE commissionings of the NHPC and Tata plants. By Q1 FY27 the Neemuch charging status was Aug-26, two months later than stated, while the SJVN FDRE battery was already commissioned.
3. Share of Central Offtakers to increase to 84% Delivered - At the Q4 FY26 PPT, management stated the share of Central Offtakers would increase to 84% from the present 67%. In Q1 FY27 the operational offtaker split was Central 67%, Other State 28%, GUVNL 5%, with the total portfolio at Central 84%.
4. 10 GW generation capacity and 25 GWh BESS by 2030 On track - At the Q1 FY27 PPT, management set a target of 10 GW generation capacity and 25 GWh BESS capacity by 2030, a 35% CAGR. As of Q1 FY27 the total portfolio stood at 8,070 MW with around 20 GWh of battery storage, with operational capacity at 2,990 MW.
5. BESS commissioning raised to \~2 GWh by Q4 FY26 Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 PPT, management raised the BESS commissioning target to \~2 GWh by Q4 FY26, up from the 1 GWh expected earlier. By Q4 FY26 \~2.3 GWh of BESS had been commissioned till date, and cumulative capacity reached \~3.62 GWh by Q1 FY27.
6. Chinese VAT announcement - no impact on budgeted cost Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management stated there was no impact on budgeted cost from the Chinese VAT announcement, with marginal procurement cost post-announcement well within budget. The impact on landed module cost was not more than Rs.1, moving solar capex from around Rs.3.3 to Rs.3.35 per watt DC, and over $300 million of dollar exposure was hedged at $89-$93 by Q1 FY27.
7. Modules for 1-1.5 GW of projects arriving January-February Partial - At the Q2 FY26 call, management stated modules for around 1-1.5 GW of projects targeted around June would start arriving January-February. By Q3 FY26, 1.7 GW peak-up modules had been procured for the FY27 planned 1.5 GW, covering about 50% of module requirement, while module orders for SJVN FDRE were not yet placed in Q1 FY27.
8. \~₹5,000 crores capex booked once 5 GWh batteries arrive from January Partial - At the Q2 FY26 call, management stated \~INR5,000 odd crores of capex would be booked once the 5 GWh of batteries arrive in phases starting from January onwards. Battery capex in Q4 FY26 was around INR1,000-1,200 crores, with gross block up \~INR3,000-3,460 crores of which roughly INR1,000-1,100 crores related to battery, and Q1 FY27 capex was \~INR2,958 Cr.
9. Connectivity delays - max a quarter from signed PPA dates Partial - At the Q2 FY26 call, management stated connectivity delays for under-construction projects were within PPA timelines - "max delay of a quarter from the signed PPA dates is what we are seeing". By Q1 FY27, SJVN FDRE solar commissioning was delayed to June '27 due to GNA connectivity versus the original May 2026 PPA schedule, roughly a year beyond the stated maximum.
10. Narela K3 connectivity line operational by December Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management stated the Narela K3 connectivity line for the ACME Sikar project was anticipated to be operational by December as per repeated CTU assessments. The Narela Khetri line was commissioned with effect from 14th December 2025, and ACME Sikar now operates at full capacity without any curtailment.
11. 1 GWh BESS merchant operation from Q4 FY26 - ₹170 crores annual EBITDA upside Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management planned to operate approximately 1 GWh of BESS on merchant basis from Q4 FY26 onwards, with upside potential of annual EBITDA of around INR170 crores assuming an INR5 price difference; this was upgraded to 2 GWh in Q4 FY26 plus 2 GWh in Q1 FY27, and \~10 GWh in FY27 with \~8.5 GWh merchant. By Q4 FY26 \~2.3 GWh was commissioned delivering net realization of \~INR2.2 Cr/day, and in Q1 FY27 BESS contributed INR226 Cr revenue, \~85% from short-term contracts, at \~82% EBITDA margin.
12. 75:25 debt-to-equity financing, \~₹11,500 crores debt by year-end Partial - At the Q1 FY26 call, management stated debt-to-equity financing of capex at 75:25, with expected debt addition of \~INR11,500 crores by year-end, back-ended. Net debt rose from INR7,507 Cr at Q4 FY25 to INR12,830 Cr at Q4 FY26, an increase of \~INR5,323 Cr, and stood at INR12,600 Cr in Q1 FY27.
13. Debt for 2.2 GW under-construction totally tied up in next quarter Partial - At the Q1 FY26 call, management stated debt for the 2.2 GW under-construction portfolio would be "totally tied up in next quarter". By Q2 FY26, 80% of signed projects had debt sanctions with first disbursements taken, rising to more than 90% by Q3 FY26 and nearly 85% of the PPA-signed portfolio in Q1 FY27.
14. SECI hybrid 3.25 PPA expected in August Partial - At the Q1 FY26 call, management stated the SECI hybrid 3.25 PPA (Bihar and UP) was at an advanced stage and expected to be signed in August. By Q4 FY26 the PPA (tariff 3.25) was approved but not yet signed, and the 300 MW hybrid ACME Renewtech Fifth at INR3.25/unit was signed in Q1 FY27.
15. Omega Urja 2.52 PPA signed this month or August Partial - At the Q1 FY26 call, management stated the Omega Urja 2.52 PPA (SJVN) was expected to be signed this month - "if not in July, maybe in August" - with no known hurdles. Madhya Pradesh approval came through the regulatory forum with SJVN consent received, and by Q2 FY26 the 2.52 (300 MW) PPA was under consideration with some states, with no signing confirmation in the record.
16. Interest cost reduction of at least \~50 bps over 6-8 months Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management expected a significant reduction in interest cost by end of FY26, with at least \~50 bps (RBI's cut) fair to assume over the next 6-8 months. Q2 FY26 delivered \~75 bps on existing INR2,080 crores debt, the operational portfolio's weighted average cost of debt fell over 100 bps from December '24 by Q3 FY26, and Q4 FY26 showed 8.4%, down \~150 bps on refinanced debt.
17. FY26 capex of ₹12,000-14,000 crores Partial - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided FY26 capex at INR12,000-14,000 crores, with a similar number for FY27, later confirming "a target of INR12,000 crores capex" at Q2 FY26. FY26 total committed capex was \~INR12,475 Cr, but capex incurred was \~INR6,445 Cr with purchase orders \~INR6,030 Cr, and Q1 FY27 added \~INR2,958 Cr.
18. Net operational debt to EBITDA within 5.5x Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management sought to maintain net operational debt to EBITDA within a guided range of 5.5x at all times, a target retained in the Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27 PPTs. The ratio ran at 4.2x in Q1 FY26, 4.3x in Q2 FY26, 4.2x in Q3 FY26, 3.9x at Q4 FY26 and 2.9x in Q1 FY27.
19. New solar tariffs post-ALCM around 2.7-2.8 Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management stated new solar tariffs post-ALCM were expected around 2.7-2.8. In Q2 FY26 the company won 220 MW RUMSL Morena at INR2.764 per unit, within the guided range, while solar capex moved from around INR3.3 to INR3.35 per watt DC.
20. FY26 capacity addition of 450 MW AC Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management stated FY26 capacity addition of 450 MW AC (\~600 MWp DC), reiterated as "on track" at Q2 FY26 and again at Q3 FY26 with 422 MW commissioned YTD. The 100 MW Acme Eco Clean wind project was fully commissioned in Q4 FY26, taking operational capacity to 2,990 MW versus 2,540 MW in FY25.
21. Battery commissioning - pilot late Q2 FY26, large-scale Q3 FY26 Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management targeted a battery pilot late Q2 FY26 and large-scale commissioning in Q3 FY26 as a "stress target", later phased as 5.1 GWh from Q4 FY26 and upgraded to 2 GWh in Q4 FY26 plus 2 GWh in Q1 FY27. The 10 MWh pilot was commissioned in Q2 FY26, \~2.3 GWh was commissioned by Q4 FY26 and cumulative capacity reached \~3.62 GWh by Q1 FY27.
22. 380 MW FDRE and 570 MW SJVN scheduled COD May-June 2026 Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management stated the 380 MW FDRE project was scheduled for COD June 2026 and the 570 MW SJVN for May 2026 per PPA, and was "geared up to execute these projects in the scheduled timeline of May and June next year"; the SJVN full 570 MW FDRE was later set for Fatehgarh substation readiness by FY27 end. By Q1 FY27 the SJVN batteries at Heergarh and Bikaner II were commissioned, but solar commissioning was delayed to June '27 due to GNA connectivity, with no read yet on the 380 MW FDRE project.
23. Operational capacity to touch \~3 GW soon Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management stated that with near-commissioning projects, operational capacity would touch around 3 GW "soon" from a then \~2,700 MW. The operational portfolio progressed from 2,890 MW in Q1 FY26 to \~2,918 MW in Q2 FY26, 2,962 MW in Q3 FY26 and 2,990 MW at Q4 FY26.
24. Sikar plant fully operational at ₹230-240 crores top line Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management stated the 300 MW Sikar plant would initially operate in the merchant market then move to a PPA, generating top line of around INR230-240 crores when fully operational at the current run-rate tariff. The plant sold merchant for 1-2 months before the SECI PPA was signed, with 100% of capacity PPA-tied, and by Q4 FY26 it was commissioned and doing close to 29% to 30% year CUF.
25. 350 MW project adding 10-15% annual revenue (\~₹200 crores or higher) Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management stated the 350 MW project would add more than 10-15% additional annual revenue (\~INR200 crores or higher) next year. Q1 FY26 revenue was INR584 Cr, up 72% YoY, and FY26 total revenue reached INR2,507 Cr, up 59.2% YoY, far exceeding the guided increment.
26. Credit rating improvement post-IPO Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management expected a credit rating improvement post-IPO, with the team working on it. Crisil upgraded the rating to A+ with positive outlook in February 2025, both CRISIL and ICRA upgraded to AA- by Q2 FY26, and ICRA AA-/Stable and CRISIL AA-/Stable were reaffirmed at Q4 FY26.
27. Land for PPA-signed projects fully in place within 6 months, worst case 9-12 On track - At the Q3 FY25 call, management stated land for PPA-signed projects would be fully in place ideally within six months of PPA signing, worst case around 9 to 12 months. Over 50% was acquired for the solar and over 60% for the wind component by Q4 FY25, acquisition was completed for the majority of projects by Q3 FY26, and over 18,000 acres stood acquired for the under-construction portfolio by Q1 FY27.
28. Capex of \~₹800 crores in the next two quarters (rest of FY25) Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management stated CAPEX of around INR800 crores would be done in the next two quarters, the rest of FY25. Nine-month FY25 CAPEX was roughly INR3,500 crores and the FY25 asset base added INR4,116 Cr, implying Q4 FY25 capex of \~INR600+ crores consistent with the guided amount.
29. EBITDA margin at current levels ±2%; PAT margin at current levels ±2% Partial - At the Q3 FY25 call, management stated percentage EBITDA and PAT margins would stay at Q3 FY25 levels ±2%, with EBITDA \~89% and PAT \~28% that quarter. EBITDA margin held within the band at 89.2% in FY25, 90.3% in FY26 and 87.1% in Q1 FY27, but PAT margin ran at 19.9% in FY26 and 24.7% in Q1 FY27, below the guided range though improving.
30. ALCM-related tariff reset expected by March or so Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management stated the ALCM-related tariff reset on the solar side was expected to set in "next by March or so". The ALCM circular was determined to have no impact on existing projects, applying only to bids post-circular, and none of the already-bid projects fell under the ALCM ambit by Q4 FY25.
31. Tariff-adoption orders out in next couple of months Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management stated the reserved tariff-adoption orders would be out "in next couple of months". By Q4 FY25, tariff was adopted and order reserved for over 90% of the 4.3 GW under-construction portfolio, and grid connectivity and tariff adoption/order reserved covered the entire 6,970 MW portfolio by Q1 FY26.
32. 300 MW merchant capacity moved to SECI PPA at ₹3.05 Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management planned to move the 300 MW merchant capacity to the SECI PPA won at INR3.05, which required power supply before June '25. The plant sold in the merchant market for 1-2 months at \~INR3.1 per unit average before the SECI PPA was signed, with 100% of capacity now PPA-tied.
33. 100 MW wind project targeted by June-to-September quarter Partial - At the Q3 FY25 call, management stated the 100 MW wind was targeted, best case, by the June-to-September quarter, later phased as first phase running in early Q2 with complete commissioning in later Q2 and completion expected in February by Q3 FY26. 72 MW of wind was commissioned during Q3 FY26 to date, and the 100 MW Acme Eco Clean wind project was fully commissioned in Q4 FY26.
34. 350 MW project (300 MW solar merchant + 50 MW wind) fully commissioned in Q4 FY25 Partial - At the Q3 FY25 call, management intended to fully commission the 350 MW (300 MW solar merchant + 50 MW wind) in Q4 FY25, worst case spilling to April 2025. By Q4 FY25 the 300 MW Sikar plant had 165 MW commissioned, with installation slipping \~60 days past the 31 March target, and the full 350 MW including the first 50 MW wind was commissioned in Q1 FY26.
35. CUF improvement from 23.7% Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management stated the CUF of 23.7% "is going to increase" given the higher proportion of high-CUF projects - "from the next quarter you will see much better number on the CUF". CUF reached 25.6% in Q4 FY25, improved to 28.5% in Q1 FY26 from 27% a year earlier, and hit a company-record 30.9% in Q1 FY27.
36. Pre-tax ROCE from operational assets of 14.5% Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management stated pre-tax ROCE from operational assets was 14.5%, a metric it would keep giving going forward, later expressed as EBITDA yield of around 14-15% and EBITDA-to-capex yield of approximately 14.5%. Cash ROE was 20.1% for FY26 and 17.3% in Q1 FY27, with BESS power sale delivering an annual EBITDA-to-capex yield of more than 20%.
37. Operational portfolio run-rate EBITDA of ₹1,750-1,800 crores Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management stated the operational 2,540 MW portfolio would give a run-rate annual EBITDA of around INR1,750-1,800 crores and would "continue giving this guidance from the operational assets", later raised to INR2,000-2,050 crores for 2,890 MW and INR2,025-2,075 crores for \~2,918 MW. FY26 EBITDA came in at INR2,265 Cr, with Q1 FY27 EBITDA of INR831 Cr the highest ever and TTM EBITDA of INR2,565 Cr.
38. Most pending PPAs concluded in next few weeks or 1-2 months Partial - At the Q2 FY25 call, management expected to conclude most pending PPAs "in the next few weeks or 1 or 2 months". By Q3 FY25, 2,340 MW of PPAs were signed out of 4,430 MW under-construction capacity; management acknowledged the delay at Q4 FY25 with \~3 PPAs aggregating \~750 MW at final stage, and 550 MW of PPAs were signed in Q1 FY26.
39. No monetization/asset sales or InvIT planned Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management stated no monetization/asset sales were planned going forward and no InvIT was planned - "nothing on the table", no timeline. No asset sales or InvIT were announced in the record through Q1 FY27; the QIP completed in Q1 FY27 was an equity raise, not an asset sale or InvIT.
40. EPC margin target of at least 10%, maximum 15% Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management stated an EPC margin target of "at least 10%-15% maximum" per project, maintaining the \~14%, 15%, 16% operating margin EPC level shown in the DRHP, later revised to EPC profits in the range of 5% at Q3 FY25 and 8%-10% margins discussed at Q2 FY26. FY25 standalone EPC EBITDA margin was 31.6%, FY26 came in at 17.1% and Q1 FY27 at 11.1%.
41. 1,200 MW plant revenue substantially better than ₹1.5 crores per day Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management stated the fully operational 1,200 MW plant would do "a substantial number better than INR1.5 crores per day" in revenue, with disclosed tariff \~INR2.44/unit and expected AC CUF of 30%. The project contributed INR80 crores of revenue in Q3 FY25 at \~90% EBITDA margin, delivered 32% CUF in Q4 FY25, and Rajasthan's 2,250 MW operational portfolio ran at 30.3% CUF in Q1 FY26.
42. 1,200 MW plant fully commissioned capital cost of ₹4,200-4,400 crores Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management stated the fully commissioned capital cost of the 1,200 MW plant would be INR4,200 crores in actual cash spent, maximum INR4,200-4,400 crores. The plant was capitalized at \~INR5,400 crores including \~INR1,400 crores MOOWR duty provision with \~INR200 crores payments remaining, actual cash spent \~INR4,200-4,400 crores, and gross block was INR4,600 crores net of EPC margin.
43. \~4 GW additional pipeline capex of ₹40,000-42,000 crore On track - At the Q2 FY25 call, management stated that funding the \~4 GW additional pipeline would need capex of somewhere between INR40,000-42,000 crore, funded 75% by debt and the balance by equity. FY26 committed capex was \~INR12,475 Cr, Q1 FY27 capex was \~INR2,958 Cr, and FY27 guidance was upgraded to approximately INR15,000-20,000 crores, with the full pipeline spend not yet due.
44. Pending SECI PPAs - 190 MW and 200 MW solar-plus-battery Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management stated the pending 190 MW SECI PPA and 200 MW of the SECI 350 MW solar-plus-battery PPA should happen quickly per SECI, with subsequent guidance of signing "shortly"/"in max couple of months" and "in, let us say, a month or so". 550 MW of FDRE and solar PPAs plus 550 MWh of battery PPAs were signed in Q1 FY26, the PPA-signed portfolio reached \~2.7 GW by Q3 FY26 and 3,880 MW after 600 MW of SECI FDRE and hybrid signings in Q1 FY27.
45. NHPC 680 MW FDRE PPA - state consent in a month or so Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management stated NHPC state consent for the 680 MW FDRE PPA was expected "in a month or so" per NHPC. UP signed the 1,200 MW PPA for the NHPC bid, with the 680 MW of PPA signed the day before the Q3 FY25 call.
46. Mid-teen returns on new bids - standing bidding discipline On track - At the Q2 FY25 call, management targeted mid-teen returns on new bids and said it would temper or calibrate growth to maintain sustainable debt-to-EBITDA, slowing growth if mid-teen returns were unavailable; the discipline was reaffirmed as "always bid for projects with the 14%, 15% ROCE" and never diluting mid-teen or high-teen returns. Management does not do projects with less than a 16% return, with standalone BESS IRRs in high-teens, BESS EBITDA-to-capex yield above 20% and cash ROE of 20.1% for FY26.
47. Refinancing cash flows of ₹400-500 crores Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management stated that once all three refinancings were done, cash flows from refinancing would be in the nature of INR400-500 crores. Refinancing of \~INR5,500 crores at an average 8.8% p.a. resulted in cash release of \~INR650 crores, and FY26 refinancing of \~INR3,300 crores included a top-up of \~INR650 crores.
48. No equity dilution needed for current capex plans Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management stated it did not expect to need to raise or dilute equity for the current capex plans per current estimates, reiterated at Q3 FY25 and Q4 FY25. A QIP was successfully completed in Q1 FY27, giving flexibility to prepone capex for under-construction projects and increasing net worth while reducing net debt.
49. IPO proceeds to repay/retire debt of ₹1,800-2,000 crore Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management stated IPO proceeds would be used to repay or retire debt of roughly INR1,800 to INR2,000 odd crores. The IPO launched in November 2024 raising ₹2,900 crore, with ₹1,541.01 crore utilised for repayment or prepayment of subsidiary borrowings of ₹1,795.00 crore proposed as of 29 Jan 2025; debt was reduced by around INR2,070 crores, taking net debt from INR8,755 crores to INR6,882 crores QoQ.
50. SECI ISTS plant peak revenue from 20th November 2024 Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management expected the SECI ISTS plant (2.44 INR/kWh PPAs) to reach peak revenue "in the next month or so" from 20th November 2024. As of 20th November 2024 the plant was operating at \~85% of capacity, generating \~INR1.5 crores/day revenue; the 1,200 MW project was fully commissioned during FY25 and Q4 FY25 Rajasthan assets delivered 29.4% CUF.