Key Takeaways
- Strong quarter, guidance held: Revenue grew 20.2% YoY and 12.2% sequentially, and management maintained its 25% FY23 growth guidance while forecasting >10% sequential growth in both Q3 and Q4.
- Pharma intermediates drove the beat: Advanced pharmaceutical intermediates grew 25%, led by Apixaban at 13% of H1 revenue, while Specialty Chemicals had a muted quarter with flattish margins.
- Electrolyte additives are the big bet: Management confirmed a commercial trial order is weeks away and commercialization is expected before FY23-end, calling the opportunity "much bigger than our current existing portfolio" if it materializes.
- Margins have a clear roadmap: EBITDA margin improved 107 bps sequentially to 19.1%, and management laid out a multi-year path: first reclaim FY21 peak margins, then add 1–2% per year toward 25–27%.
- What to watch next quarter: Whether the electrolyte additive trial order converts to commercial revenue, the pace of gross margin recovery as higher-cost inventory liquidates, and progress on the two newly qualified molecules now shipping validation batches.
Pharma Intermediates: The Growth Engine
- Apixaban dominance: Contributed 13% of H1 FY23 revenue and remains the primary growth driver, with demand growing steadily alongside Sitagliptin and Vildagliptin.
- Dolutegravir contribution: Accounted for 3% of quarterly revenue and 4% of the half, adding diversification to the anti-coagulant and anti-diabetic portfolio.
- Import substitution progressing: Pharma qualification from existing vendors has reached 30–35% of demand, with a target of 100% by FY24, though management noted the process is moving slowly.
- Market position: The company supplies roughly 80% of world demand in the APIs it makes for pharma, and volume increases every quarter signal market share shift from competitors is already underway.
- New molecule wins: Two molecules commercialized in Q3 and Q4 FY22; two more qualified this quarter, including a pharma anti-inflammatory with validation orders from Europe and Israel (around 5 tons) and an agro-chemical with a 500 kg validation order from India.
Naresh Patel: "We are always conservative in our statement, and that is how we are seeing."
Electrolyte Additives: The Optionality Bet
- The product: Vinylene Carbonate and Fluoroethylene Carbonate, both mandatory in lithium-ion batteries depending on geography and application. Samples are with multiple customers, and one customer has indicated commercial trial demand within a year.
- Commercial trial imminent: A commercial trial order of a couple of metric tons is expected within weeks, with full commercialization targeted before FY23-end.
- China-plus-one window: Management sees a structural derisking shift as global battery demand moves away from China, and claims Acutaas is "the first one to get in that window."
- Cost competitiveness via flow chemistry: The company developed a continuous flow process for Vinylene Carbonate that reduced production time and cost sizably, making it ready to compete with Chinese pricing.
- Fluorination capability: The company already performs fluorination in its pharma business and has now extended that capability to electrolyte additives, describing the technology as "guarded."
- Revenue potential unquantified: Management declined to give a 3–5 year revenue number when pressed, saying only it will be "much bigger than our current existing portfolio," and noted the global market size figure of USD 1.2 billion from a report differs from its own survey.
Naresh Patel: "But now the demand in rest of the world market is now more derisking themselves from China, and that is the reason why the big window opened for the rest of the world. And this is where we are the first one to get in that in this window..."
Specialty Chemicals: Muted Now, Building for Tomorrow
- Muted quarter: Specialty Chemicals EBITDA margin was flattish at 10%, with the segment described as having a subdued Q2.
- Methyl Salicylate catalyst: Successfully developed using flow technology, with reactors set up at Jhagadia and commercialization expected from Q3 FY23; management expects it to lead Specialty Chemicals growth in upcoming quarters.
- Flow technology capacity unlock: Two more products will be commercialized on flow technology in H2 FY23, bringing the total to four big products and freeing up 5–7% of reactor capacity.
- Gujarat Organics ambition: Targeting 2.5x FY21 revenue (₹90 crores) in the next couple of years, with long-term EBITDA margin expected to be 2–3% below the pharma business margin.
- Cost improvement underway: Projects at the Jhagadia site are in final stages, with margin improvement expected in H2 FY23.
Margins: The Step-by-Step Climb
- Sequential improvement delivered: EBITDA margin rose 107 bps to 19.1%, driven by lower operating costs, with management targeting 1–2% improvement every quarter.
- Gross margin headwind: Gross margin at 48% was 0.8% lower sequentially due to higher-cost inventory procured over the last two quarters; 100–200 bps of improvement is expected in Q3 and Q4 as that inventory liquidates.
- Employee cost normalization ahead: Employee benefits expense was elevated due to variable pay and the annual increment rolled out in Q1, with normalization expected in H2 FY23.
- Multi-year margin roadmap: First reclaim FY21 levels (the best margin year in 14 years), then add 1–2% per year toward 25–27%, with raw material cost pass-through happening on a quarterly lag.
- Inventory positioning: Inventory is elevated because the company is building based on customer demand projections; normalization to 90 days is expected in Q3 and Q4.
Naresh Patel: "Our first target is to reach our margin to the FY '21 levels, which is the best margin year of all 14 years of time. So first target is to reach to that level. And then over, every year, we are targeting to improve to 1% or 2% basis every year in the margin to go up to the 25%, 27% levels."
Capacity & Capex: Building for the Pipeline
- New facility timeline: Civil construction and equipment ordering are underway; the facility is expected to be ready by December 2023, with validation and qualification to follow and revenue contribution starting in FY25.
- Capacity scalability: The new facility can increase capacity 2x to 3.5x because of complete DCS and flow continuous reactors.
- Existing utilization: Ankleshwar and Jaghadia at 40–45%, Sachin at 60–65%; Surat expected to be fully utilized (85%) in the next 1.5 years, Jaghadia in 2 years.
- Capex funding: The ₹190 crores capex will be split over H2 FY23 and FY24, funded from IPO general corporate purpose funds and internal accruals, with a small term loan if needed.
- Product pipeline depth: Over 400 products are waiting with patents expiring through 2037, and 4–5 new molecules are added to the basket every year.
Guidance & Commitments
| Commitment | Specifics | Timeline |
|---|---|---|
| FY23 revenue growth | 25% growth maintained | FY23 full year |
| Sequential quarterly growth | >10% sequential growth | Q3 and Q4 FY23 |
| H2 revenue share | 55–60% of full-year revenue | H2 FY23 |
| Electrolyte additive commercialization | Commercial revenue from electrolyte additives | Before FY23-end |
| Methyl Salicylate commercialization | Commercial production begins | Q3 FY23 |
| Gross margin recovery | 100–200 bps improvement from current 48% | Q3 and Q4 FY23 |
| Inventory normalization | Return to 90-day levels | Q3 and Q4 FY23 |
| Import substitute pharma products | Reach 100% of demand from current 30–35% | By FY24 |
| New facility ready | Civil and equipment complete | December 2023 |
| New facility revenue contribution | Revenue begins | FY25 |
| Gujarat Organics revenue | 2.5x FY21 level (₹90 crores) | Next couple of years |
| Long-term margin target | 25–27% EBITDA margin | Multi-year, after reclaiming FY21 levels |
| Long-term revenue CAGR | 23–25% CAGR | FY23 through FY25 |
Key Metrics
| Metric | Q2 FY23 |
|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹147 cr, +20.2% YoY and +12.2% QoQ |
| Gross margin | 48%, with room to improve 100–200 bps in coming quarters |
| EBITDA | ₹28.1 cr, +2.8% YoY and +18.8% QoQ |
| EBITDA margin | 19.1%, vs 22.4% in Q2 FY22 and 18.1% in Q1 FY23 |
| PAT | ₹19 cr, +9% YoY and +28.1% QoQ |
| PAT margin | 13%, vs 14.3% in Q2 FY22 and 11.3% in Q1 FY23 |
| Pharma segment EBITDA margin | 21.5% |
| Specialty Chemicals segment EBITDA margin | 10%, flattish sequentially |
| Export share | 58% of revenue, with ~70% of exports to Europe |
| Pharma revenue share | 85% of total revenue |
| H2 FY23 revenue outlook | 55% to 60% of full-year revenue |
| Full-year FY23 revenue growth guidance | 25% maintained |
| Apixaban revenue contribution | 13% of total revenue for H1 FY23 |
| Trazodone revenue contribution | 18% of revenue for H1 FY23 |
| Entacapone revenue contribution | 8% of revenue for H1 FY23 |