Adani Green Energy Ltd Q2 FY2026 Concall Summary & Transcript Notes

Source transcript PDF: https://www.stockscans.in/document/ylb7e1uqt2h2m382gvnpjubv.pdf

# 1. Financial Performance

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Revenue:** **₹6,088 Cr** power supply (+26%)
   *   **EBITDA:** **₹5,651 Cr** (+25%)
   *   **EBITDA Margin:** **92%** (best-in-class)
   *   **Cash Profits:** **₹3,094 Cr** (+17%)

## B. Revenue Growth
   *   **Merchant Revenue Recognition:** Revenue from PPA-based capacity sold on a merchant basis is recognized in income, not capitalized, supporting top-line visibility.

## C. EBITDA Margin
   *   **Margin Resilience:** Sustained best-in-class margin performance driven by operational digitization and a favorable shift toward the non-PPA segment.
   *   **Quarterly EBITDA Trend:** Underlying EBITDA, excluding other income, declined sequentially to **₹2,600 Cr** from **₹3,000 Cr**, reflecting near-term volatility despite strong fundamentals.

## D. Receivables Days
   *   **Exceptional Collections:** Overdue receivables limited to just four days past due, with no material changes in DISCOM payment behavior, underscoring credit discipline.
   *   **Proactive Monitoring:** Management maintains tight oversight on realization timelines, with internal initiatives driving consistent improvements in collections efficiency.

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# 2. Capacity & Additions

## A. Key Figures
   * Renewable Capacity: 16.7 GW (+49% YoY)
   * **Greenfield Additions:** **2.4 GW** in H1 FY26 (74% of FY25 full-year addition)
   *   **Operating Capacity:** **17 GW** (up from 10–11 GW) with **4–5 GW under construction**
   *   **Pumped Storage Project (Chitravathi):** **500 MW** (57% physical progress, ₹2,600 Cr est. cost)

## B. Greenfield Capacity
   *   **Market Leadership Confirmed:** Reinforced position as India’s largest and fastest-growing pure-play renewable energy player on the back of robust capacity expansion.
   *   **Accelerated Merchant Solar Rollout:** Strategic push in merchant solar driven by **ISTS transmission charge waiver**, enabling front-loaded commissioning in Q1.
   *   **Project Efficiency Gains:** Smaller-scale projects within larger initiatives (e.g., 1.8 GW program) are delivering **enhanced cost-effectiveness** without compromising scale.

## C. Under Construction
   *   **On Track for 5 GW FY26 Target:** Despite monsoon challenges, H1 additions reached **74–75% of prior full-year volume**, including nearly **800–900 MW in a single quarter**, affirming execution resilience.
   *   **Khavda Progress Amid Scrutiny:** World’s largest renewable plant (Gujarat) advancing with **661 MW already operational**; management denies significant delays despite CUF dip and revised commissioning timelines.
   *   **Multi-Year Capacity Outlook:** Guided **5–6 GW additions over next two years**, with increasing visibility on **back-ended ramp toward 2029–2030**, signaling long-term de-risking.

## D. Evacuation Sync
   *   **Infrastructure-Led Deployment:** Assets are being commissioned in alignment with **bulk evacuation tranches (3–5 GW)** to ensure immediate utilization and revenue generation.
   *   **Khavda Evacuation Momentum:** **~10 GW evacuation capacity** expected by year-end, alleviating prior bottlenecks and supporting near-term commissioning plans.

## E. PSP Projects
   *   **Chitravathi PSP Advancing:** 500 MW pumped storage project at **57% physical completion**, reflecting disciplined capital deployment in long-duration storage.
   *   **UP PSP Timeline Clarified:** Six-year development horizon with **capex front-loaded in final three years**; initial phase focused on land, permits, and equipment advances.

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# 3. Power Sales & Mix

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Energy Sales:** **1,960 Cr units** H1 FY26 (+39% YoY)
   *   **Merchant Capacity Split:** **65% solar**, **35% wind**
   *   **Hybrid PLF:** **39%** Q2 FY26 vs. 43% Q2 FY25
   * Infirm/Pre-COD Capacity: 4.8 GW total

## B. Merchant vs PPA
   *   **Merchant Realizations Stable:** No decline in solar or wind merchant prices; solar averages **INR1/unit** plus **INR35/unit from RECs**, while wind achieves **INR13/unit**, supported by favorable mix and REC monetization.
   *   **Strategic PPA Flexibility:** No current PPA for certain projects; management retaining optionality to enter peak power market or secure PPAs opportunistically to maximize returns.
   *   **Blended Merchant Outlook:** Blended merchant price expected near **INR5/unit**, underpinned by regional wind strength and REC contributions.
   *   **Global Cost Leadership:** Indian solar remains among the lowest-cost globally at **$0.03/unit or below**, enhancing competitiveness for daytime supply and storage integration.

## C. Solar-Wind Split
   *   **Wind Contribution Material:** Wind comprises **35% of merchant capacity**, providing higher realization uplift versus solar and improving overall portfolio economics.

## D. Hybrid CUF
   *   **Hybrid PLF Decline Explained:** Slight YoY drop in hybrid PLF due to design shifts—newer projects target lower CUFs and feature less solar-wind intensity compared to earlier high-intensity Rajasthan hybrids.
   *   **Standalone Performance Resilient:** Solar CUF on track for **100–200 bps annual improvement**, while wind CUF expected to stabilize at prior-year levels despite soft start, with **Khavda region hitting 42% CUF**, signaling strong localized potential.

## E. Infirm Power
   *   **Infirm Power Scale & Accounting:** ~**4,800 MW** of infirm power due to grid constraints; total **8 GW** classified as infirm/pre-COD. All related costs and revenues flow directly through P&L—none capitalized.
   *   **PPA Conversion Uncertain:** Infirm power may transition to long-term PPAs, but full fiscal-year conversion cannot be assured due to dependencies on PPA execution and evacuation infrastructure readiness.

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# 4. Project Pipeline & Conversion

## A. Key Figures
   *   **LOAs Pending Conversion:** **>4 GW** (~4 GW expected to convert)
   *   **PPAs Secured:** **27 GW** under contract
   * **Capacity Target:** **50 GW** total portfolio target · **2.5 GW** (5%) allocated to hybrid/BESS

## B. LOA to PPA
   *   **Pipeline Momentum:** Robust project pipeline supported by 27 GW already under PPAs, with sequencing of operationalization underway this quarter.
   *   **Conversion Pace:** Limited near-term LOA-to-PPA activity this quarter despite strong conversions over the prior six to nine months; only a subset of awarded LOAs expected to convert.

## C. Tender Strategy
   *   **Strategic Selectivity:** Tender participation focused on high-return opportunities, with deliberate pass on certain BESS and hybrid tenders—reflecting discipline, not capability gaps.
   *   **Market Evolution:** Shift toward peak/round-the-clock tenders with storage; smaller tender sizes driving aggressive bidding from new entrants, though market expected to mature over time.

## D. BESS Development
   *   **Scaled Ambition:** BESS development underway at unprecedented scale in India, leveraging **integrated solar assets and owned land** for cost advantage—though outside current 50 GW target.
   *   **Technology Leverage:** Actively partnering with major BESS manufacturers to capitalize on **declining storage costs**, positioning for future hybrid demand despite minimal current BESS exposure.

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# 5. Cost & Capex

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Capex (FY Current):** **₹30,000 Cr** (for 5 GW, 4 GW commissioned)
   *   **Capex (FY26–FY27):** **₹30,000–35,000 Cr** annually
   * Net Debt / Run Rate EBITDA: 4.4x (operational) · 5.1x (including under-construction debt)
   *   **Gross Block + CWIP:** **₹100,000 Cr** (₹94,000 Cr operational + ₹16,000 Cr CWIP)

## B. Capex per MW
   *   **Cost-Efficient Execution:** PSP projects delivered at **INR1–2 Cr/MW**, reflecting favorable development economics.
   *   **Solar Capex Discipline:** New solar plants targeted at **INR4–5 Cr/MW**, consistent with industry benchmarks.
   *   **Phased Spending Profile:** Infrastructure capex follows a front-loaded land/equipment advance pattern, with major outlays later during equipment installation.

## C. Annual Capex
   *   **Sustained High Investment:** Capex set to remain elevated at **₹30,000–35,000 Cr/year** over the next two years, supporting 5 GW annual capacity additions.
   *   **Near-Term PSP De-Risking:** UP PSP project to see minimal near-term spend, with bulk capex deferred to later stages.

## D. Leverage Outlook
   *   **Leverage Guidance Maintained:** Company expects net leverage to stabilize at **4–5x net debt to run rate EBITDA** over the medium term, reflecting ongoing capex cycle.

## E. CWIP Spend
   *   **Significant Pipeline Visibility:** **₹16,000 Cr** in CWIP underscores active project pipeline, with **7 GW** already operational.

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# 6. Risks & Grid Constraints

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Curtailment Impact:** **<5%** of generation affected in the quarter
   *   **Hybrid PLF:** **39%+** achieved in H1
   *   **Curtailment Rate (Reported):** **97%** (due to revised methodology including external grid)

## B. Curtailment Impact
   *   **Methodology Shift Explains High Curtailment:** The 97% curtailment figure reflects a broader reporting definition incorporating external grid constraints, not a deterioration in operational performance.
   *   **Minimal Generation Impact:** Despite elevated curtailment metrics, actual generation loss was limited to less than 5%, with PPA-based power protected by deemed generation compensation.
   *   **Merchant Exposure:** Majority of curtailed volume comes from T-GNA and merchant power, which face no compensation, particularly in high-exposure areas like Khavda.

## C. Grid Availability
   *   **Evacuation Delays Monitored Closely:** While transmission infrastructure has lagged initial timelines, the company maintains active coordination with all stakeholders to align project and grid readiness.
   *   **Solar Grid Availability Dropped Sharply:** Declined to 89% from 97% in Q1, reflecting growing external grid pressures despite internal operational readiness.

## D. Timing Mismatch
   *   **Strategic Early Commissioning Accepted:** Timing lags between plant commissioning and transmission availability are acknowledged as temporary and strategically managed, with new capacity brought online ahead of evacuation to accelerate long-term deployment.

## E. Weather Variability
   *   **H1 Performance Resilient Despite Weather:** Hybrid PLF exceeded 39%, with minor Q2 solar CUF softness attributed to monsoon irregularities, though full-period solar performance improved year-on-year.

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# 7. Guidance & Outlook

## A. Key Figures
   * **Run Rate EBITDA:** **₹14,100 Cr** consolidated (current) · **₹136,000 Cr** expected from portfolio commissioned by end-Q1 FY26

## B. Run Rate EBITDA
   *   **Leverage De-risking Ahead:** Sharp decline in leverage expected from FY29 onward as capex projects ramp and EBITDA growth outpaces debt.
   *   **Cautious Guidance Stance:** Management prioritizes execution validation over forward-looking projections, emphasizing track record before formal long-term guidance.

## C. Capacity Target
   *   **On Track for 50 GW:** Adani Green remains committed to achieving **50 gigawatts** of renewable capacity by 2030, with diversified technology mix beyond solar.
   *   **Execution Momentum:** First pumped storage project (PSP) to be commissioned in the coming calendar year, with broader pipeline progressing on schedule.

## D. BESS Strategy
   *   **Storage Strategy Imminent:** Comprehensive BESS (Battery Energy Storage Systems) roadmap to be unveiled shortly, signaling strategic push into dispatchable green power.
   *   **24x7 Green Power Ambition:** Exploring role in Google’s Vizag AI campus via potential supply of round-the-clock renewable energy, though specific involvement remains undefined.