1. No large prior period regulatory items expected Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management did not expect any large amount further from prior period regulatory items. FY25 saw one-time prior period income of ₹2,433 crores, FY26 ₹2,283 crores, and Q1 FY27 ₹1,386 crores - significant amounts continued to be recognized.
2. Godda receivables - no further pile-up Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said Godda receivables were not expected to pile up further as the SOP was now in place. Receivables stood at ₹6,630 crores (USD 790 million) in Q2 FY25, then fell to near-normal after over $500 million was received by Q1 FY26, reaching \~USD 40 crore by Q1 FY27.
3. No dividend or bonus planned Delivered - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said no dividend or bonus was planned, with surplus reinvested in the capex program for the next 6-7 years. No dividend or bonus has been declared as of Q1 FY27.
4. Net debt/EBITDA - improve from 1.4-1.5x Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected net debt/EBITDA, then at 1.4-1.5x, to improve further. Net Debt/Continuing EBITDA stood at 2.12x in FY26 and 2.12x TTM in Q1 FY27, deteriorating from 1.44x in FY25.
5. Internal accruals sufficient for capex - no additional borrowing Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, Anupam Misra said cash generation exceeds capex needs and no additional borrowing was needed, reiterated at Q1 FY26. Total debt rose from ₹38,775 crores in March 2025 to ₹58,381 crores by June 2026, with bridge financing taken and ₹7,500 crores of NCDs raised.
6. FY26 EBITDA margins - similar to last year Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management said that till capacity expansion takes place, "you can expect similar EBITDA margins as we have recorded in the last year". FY26 Continuing EBITDA margin came in at 40% against \~38% in FY25, and Q1 FY27 reached 43%.
7. Haryana discom alternate coal compensation - resolution soon Pending - At the Q1 FY26 call, management expected the Haryana discom alternate coal compensation issue "should get resolved soon". By Q3 FY25, Haryana Discoms had accepted 50% of the compensation claim with the remaining 50% still open; no further resolution disclosure appears in our record.
8. Bangladesh receivables - reconciliation and realization Partial - At the Q3 FY25 call, management was confident the \~USD 100 million unreconciled Bangladesh amount would be reconciled and realized, and by Q4 FY26 an expert had been appointed for reconciliation of the undisputed amount. By Q1 FY27, receivables were \~USD 40 crore at end of June 2026, with disputed amounts not recognized as revenue and reconciliation ongoing.
9. Merchant realization - \~₹6 per unit for balance period Missed - At the Q2 FY26 call, management expected average merchant realization of around ₹6 per unit for the balance period. Actuals were ₹5.37/unit in Q2 FY26, ₹4.37/unit in Q3 FY26, ₹7-8/unit at times in Q4 FY26, and ₹7.04/unit in Q1 FY27, with the FY26 average at ₹5.30/unit.
10. 90%+ plant availability Partial - At the Q3 FY26 call, management said the full year should end with more than 90% overall plant availability, and the Q1 FY27 PPT noted consistent 90%+ availability over many years. FY25 delivered 91% but FY26 came in at 88%; Q4 FY26 recovered to more than 91% and Q1 FY27 to 96%.
11. 28%+ Continuing EBITDA CAGR Missed - At the Q4 FY25 PPT, APL targeted 28%+ Continuing EBITDA CAGR with remunerative PPAs. From FY25 Continuing EBITDA of ₹21,575 crores, FY26 came in at ₹21,285 crores, a decline of 1.34%; Q1 FY27 was ₹6,983 crores, +22% YoY.
12. Mirzapur 1,600 MW greenfield project On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management initiated seven 2x800 MW expansion projects including greenfield Mirzapur, and at Q1 FY27 said execution had commenced for the 1,600 MW Mirzapur greenfield project. Execution has commenced, with the project included in the 23,720 MW locked-in capacity.
13. Four commercial coal mines - 14 MTPA production capacity Pending - At the Q4 FY25 call, management discussed four commercial coal mines with total 1.4 crore metric tons per annum at peak capacity, with the Q4 FY25 PPT citing 14 MMTPA and later PPTs repeating 14 MTPA. Four auctions were won totaling 14 MTPA, three in MP and one in Maharashtra; no production commencement has been disclosed.
14. Biomass co-firing - 5% portfolio decarbonisation Partial - In the FY24 Annual Report, the company aimed for 5% portfolio decarbonisation through biomass technology integration. FY26 saw 0.9% biomass co-firing at Tiroda and 3.7% at Korba, with trials of up to 10% blending conducted at Raipur TPP.
15. Green ammonia co-firing - 20% at Mundra Pending - In the FY24 Annual Report, an MoU with Kowa and IHI was signed to study feasibility of 20% liquid ammonia co-firing, with plans to extend to 100% mono-firing at Mundra; the Q1 FY25 call placed the green ammonia pilot at feasibility study stage, and the FY25 Annual Report announced pilot projects for 20% co-firing at Mundra. A feasibility study of ammonia co-firing at Mundra TPP was conducted in FY25; no implementation has been disclosed.
16. Jaiprakash Associates power assets acquisition - 180 MW Churk + 24% JPVL Delivered - At the Q4 FY26 call, management discussed the JAL resolution plan with APL as implementing agency taking over a 180 MW asset and 24% shareholding in JPVL. The acquisition completed in Q1 FY27: the 180 MW Churk plant, 24% of 2,220 MW JPVL and 11.49% of Prayagraj Power, for ₹4,194 crores.
17. Bhutan 570 MW hydro project - SPV with Druk Green Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management said an SPV had been incorporated in Bhutan for a 570 MW hydro power plant, with the Q1 FY27 PPT citing 5 GW hydroelectric capacity in Bhutan and the first 570 MW project under Wangchhu Hydroelectric Power Ltd. (49:51 APL/DGPC) at an estimated cost of ₹6,000 crore. The SPV is incorporated but commercial terms are not yet finalized; no construction start has been disclosed.
18. Nuclear power - 10 GW by 2035 Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management targeted nuclear capacity of about 10 GW by 2035, with the Q1 FY27 PPT targeting 10 GW by 2035 via Adani Atomic Energy Ltd.. Several SPVs are incorporated with sites being identified and approvals sought; the company is waiting \~6 months for Government of India rules notification, with no capital allocation plan until then.
19. Weighted average cost of debt - less than 9% this year Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management said the weighted average cost of debt would be less than 9% this year. By Q4 FY26, the weighted average cost of new borrowing was about 8%, with the long-term borrowing rate near 8.5% at Q3 FY26 and NCDs raised at 8%-8.4% coupons.
20. FFO - ₹20,000 crores per year over capex program On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, the CFO said FFO would exceed ₹21,000 crores annually on average, over ₹1 lakh crore across five years; by Q3 FY26 operating assets were to generate ₹1.4 lakh crores over 5-6 years, and at Q1 FY27 the guide was ₹20,000 crores per year, over ₹1.4 lakh crore over the capex program period. FY26 FFO was ₹20,248 crores and FY25 ₹20,503 crores, consistent with the annual run-rate.
21. Debt-free by FY31-32 Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, the CFO said by FY31-32 the company can pay off its entire debt and "may be a debt-free company", thereafter having a huge cash surplus. Total debt stands at ₹58,381 crores and net debt at ₹47,643 crores as of Q1 FY27; no FY31-32 actuals yet.
22. Net debt-to-EBITDA - will not cross 3x On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided net debt-to-EBITDA "will not cross 3 times at any point", with 2-3x persisting over the next 2-3 years. Net Debt/Continuing EBITDA stood at 2.12x TTM as of Q1 FY27, with net debt of ₹47,643 crores.
23. EBITDA guidance - ₹50,000 crores conservatively by FY31 Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided consolidated EBITDA of ₹50,000 crores "conservatively by FY 2031", possibly touched in 2030 if plans are achieved without issues. FY26 EBITDA was ₹23,431 crores and Q1 FY27 EBITDA ₹8,369 crores; no FY31 actuals yet.
24. Godda grid linkage to India - by December 2025 Missed - At the Q2 FY26 call, management said the Godda plant was expected to be connected to the Indian grid by December 2025, having earlier said at Q2 FY25 it would "explore options" as supply to Bangladesh was ongoing. No completion disclosure appears in our record as of Q1 FY27; Godda continues dedicatedly supplying Bangladesh under the PPA.
25. Karnataka 570 MW PPA - existing Raipur capacity Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management won a 570 MW long-term PPA for 25 years from Karnataka, to be supplied from existing Raipur capacity. The Karnataka PPA of 570.5 MW was signed with APL Raigarh at ₹5.78/unit with a fixed component of ₹4.5, and is included in PPA tie-ups.
26. Assam 3,200 MW greenfield project - DBFOO model Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management received the Letter of Award for a 3,200 MW greenfield project in Assam under the DBFOO model, after the Q2 FY26 update that bids were concluded, the company was L1 and commission approval was received. The LoA was received, with the Assam PPA total charge at ₹6.30/kWh including a capacity charge of ₹4.16/kWh, and the Chapar 3,200 MW PPA confirmed via Letter of Award from Assam DISCOM.
27. Bihar 2,400 MW and Madhya Pradesh 1,600 MW PPAs Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management announced award of a 2,400 MW PPA in Bihar and 1,600 MW in Madhya Pradesh. The PPAs were awarded and are included in 13,320 MW of new PPAs tied up, with first-year capacity charges under recent PPAs at ₹4.11-4.30/kWh for Bihar, Assam, Maharashtra, MP and WB.
28. Uttar Pradesh 1,600 MW PPA - capacity tie-up Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management signed a long-term PPA with Uttar Pradesh Discom for 1,600 MW gross capacity. The PPA was signed with a capacity charge of ₹3.73 and total tariff of ₹5.39, and is included in 13,320 MW of new PPAs tied up.
29. MSEDCL 1,600 MW PPA - Raipur project supply Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management announced a Letter of Award from Maharashtra DISCOM for 1,496 MW (net) under a 25-year PPA, to be supplied from a new 1,600 MW ultra-supercritical project in Chhattisgarh, with 42 months allowed for commissioning plus 18 months for financial closure and an internal plan to commission within 4 years; by Q4 FY26 the PPA was expected to be signed within 3 months, then needing 48 months. The 25-year PPA for 1,600 MW was signed in Q1 FY27, at a tariff of ₹5.30/unit (₹4.11 capacity charge + ₹1.19 energy charge), with the project location not yet assigned - likely Raigarh, Raipur or Korba.
30. PPA tie-up for new capacity - 80% long-term On track - At the Q1 FY25 call, management's strategy was to tie up \~80% of capacity under long-term PPAs and keep \~20% merchant, later saying at Q3 FY25 it was "very confident" of tying up entire new capacity; by Q3 FY26 it intended to tie up the entire 24 GW with merchant exposure falling to 3-4% over 6-7 years, and at Q4 FY26 merchant capacity was to remain at 5% from Q1 FY27. 13,320 MW of new PPAs are tied up, 56% of upcoming capacity was tied up by Q1 FY27, 95% of operating capacity is under PPAs, and merchant capacity fell from 16% to 5% during FY26.
31. 11.2 GW BTG advance ordering - supply chain assurance Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management said advance orders were given to the Main Plant Supplier for 11.2 GW of capacity, to be commissioned phase-wise by FY30, reiterated at Q3 FY25 and Q4 FY25, with supplies locked in for the entire 11.2 GW by Q1 FY26; by Q4 FY26 the PPT showed advance ordering of 22.4 GW of BTG sets. 100% of BTG sets are ordered for the 23.7 GW brownfield/greenfield expansion, split as 8 machines of 800 MW to L&T and the balance to BHEL.
32. 45 GW capacity by FY31-32 On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management revised the capacity target to 45 GW by the same timeline as previously stated for 42 GW, with the Q1 FY27 PPT targeting base load capacity expansion to 45 GW by FY31-32. Operating capacity stands at 18,150 MW as of Q1 FY27, with 23,720 MW locked-in under development and an additional 3 GW at planning stage.
33. Total expansion capex - \~₹2 lakh crores over 5-7 years On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management estimated total capex for the \~23 GW expansion at approximately ₹2 lakhs crore, refined to \~₹2 lakh crores over 5-6 years at Q3 FY26, an overall ₹2 lakh crores plan at Q4 FY26, and more than ₹2 lakhs crores over the next few years at Q1 FY27. FY26 saw \~₹22,000 crores of expansion capex incurred and CWIP rose to ₹35,053 crores in FY26; the program is not yet complete.
34. Capex guidance FY28 - \~₹33,000 crores Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, the CFO guided FY28 capex of "near about ₹33,000 crores", reiterated at Q1 FY27. No FY28 capex actuals are yet available.
35. Capex guidance FY27 - \~₹25,000 crores Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, the CFO guided FY27 capex of "near about ₹25,000 crores", reiterated at Q1 FY27. No FY27 capex actuals are yet available as of Q1 FY27.
36. Capex guidance FY26 - \~₹20,000 crores Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided capex of \~₹20,000 crores for FY26, later revised at Q4 FY25 to FY26 expansion capex of ₹13,307 crores. FY26 saw net fixed assets rise \~25% YoY with \~₹22,000 crores of expansion capex incurred, and CWIP increased from ₹12,104 crores in FY25 to ₹35,053 crores in FY26.
37. Capex guidance FY25 - \~₹6,000 crores Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided capex of \~₹6,000 crores for FY25. Actual FY25 capex incurred was around ₹8,000 crores per the Q4 FY25 call, with the FY25 annual report showing an annual capex cash outflow of ₹11,671 crores - spend exceeded the plan.
38. Mahan Phase-II PPA tie-up - 83% of 1.6 GW Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management stated the Mahan expansion had a PPA for close to 83% of the total 1.6 GW capacity. By Q1 FY25, 1,320 MW of the 1,600 MW Mahan capacity was tied up, confirmed as Mahan Ph-II 1,320 MW PPA in the Q4 FY25 PPT; no further change disclosed.
39. Korba Phase-II 1,320 MW revival - commissioning FY27 On track - At the Q2 FY25 call, management said Lanco Amarkantak's 1,320 MW under-construction capacity would be ready "in the next two years", with balance work around 30 months out at Q3 FY25, likely end FY26 or H1 FY27 at Q4 FY25, first unit mid-next-year and second by end of next year at Q3 FY26, Q2 FY27 and before year-end at Q4 FY26, and before December end this year at Q1 FY27. Construction resumed by Q3 FY26 and was close to completion by Q4 FY26, with environmental clearance received; not yet commissioned as of Q1 FY27.
40. Vidarbha Industries Power (VIPL) acquisition - 600 MW Butibori Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management said the VIPL (600 MW Butibori) acquisition would be concluded "soon", taking installed capacity to 18,150 MW. Vidarbha Industries Power Ltd. was acquired in July 2025; the plant was revived within two months after being shut for almost 10 years, with a 500 MW PPA signed with Maharashtra DISCOMs for five years at ₹5.55/unit, and was fully operational at full capacity by Q3 FY26.
41. Dhirauli coal mine - production start FY26 Partial - At the Q3 FY25 call, management said the Dhirauli mine would supply 0.5 crore tonne of coal after 2 years, with coal production to start "this year" (FY26) at Q4 FY25; by Q1 FY26 production was expected by September or October, and by Q2 FY26 box cutting by end of this year with coal production from next year. No disclosure of Dhirauli production commencement appears in our record as of Q1 FY27.
42. Raigarh brownfield expansion 1,600 MW - PPA tie-up and commissioning On track - At the Q4 FY24 call, management initiated development of the Raigarh expansion (1,600 MW, Chhattisgarh) and said they would try to tie up capacity under long-term PPAs; by Q4 FY25 three 1,600 MW brownfield projects were under construction at Mahan, Raipur and Raigarh, and by Q3 FY26 Raipur and Raigarh were expected 6 months after Mahan, with all three completed by the middle of FY29. Raigarh Phase-II crossed 20% by Q1 FY26, 38% by Q3 FY26, 47% by Q4 FY26 and 54% by Q1 FY27; no PPA is specifically tied to the Raigarh expansion, though a Karnataka PPA of 570.5 MW was signed with APL Raigarh at ₹5.78/unit.
43. Lanco Amarkantak acquisition - NCLT approval and closing Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management discussed the Amarkantak acquisition process with COC approval pending, and at Q4 FY24 expected NCLT approvals soon. Lanco Amarkantak (Korba Power) was acquired on September 6, 2024, adding 600 MW operational capacity, with the 1,320 MW under-construction capacity being revived.
44. Coastal Energen acquisition - NCLT approval and closing Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management announced the Coastal Energen acquisition (consideration \~₹3,450 crores) with LoI received and the NCLT process underway, and at Q4 FY24 expected NCLT approvals soon. Coastal Energen (Moxie Power) was acquired in August 2024, adding 1,200 MW, with the plant fully operational and both units overhauled by Q1 FY26.
45. Rating upgrade - approach agencies post-merger Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management said they intended to approach rating agencies again for a rating review post-merger, "hopefully in few months from now", expressing confidence in a rating improvement. The credit rating was upgraded from A to the AA family (AA-) by Q4 FY24, CARE assigned AA/Stable at Q2 FY25, four agencies rated AA stable by Q4 FY25, AA/Stable from CareEdge, India Ratings, Crisil and ICRA at Q4 FY26, and CARE upgraded to AA+/Stable in August 2026.
46. FGD installation - \~11,600 MW by FY26-FY27 Partial - At the Q2 FY24 call, management said FGD orders were placed for \~11,600 MW of capacity, with FGD to be in place between FY26 and FY27; at Q4 FY24 the timeline was completion by December '26 with the EPC contractor required to execute by June 26 or Q2 FY26-27, and at Q1 FY26 FGD expenditure was to be dropped from plants where execution had not started per a new notification, continuing at Mahan and Raipur in advanced stage. Dahanu became the first utility in India to install an FGD unit with 100% capacity; no comprehensive disclosure of fleet-wide FGD completion appears in our record.
47. Mahan Phase-II 1,600 MW - commissioning by FY27-28 On track - At the Q4 FY24 call, management stated the Mahan 1.6 GW expansion would be commissioned by FY27-28, targeted for June 2027 at Q1 FY25, operational by December '26 and June '27 at Q2 FY25, around March-April '27 then one 800 MW unit every six months at Q4 FY25, best efforts to complete in FY27 at Q3 FY26, first unit Q4 FY27 at most Q1 FY28 with the second six months later at Q4 FY26, and first unit Q1 FY28 with second Q3 FY28, trying for Q2 FY28, at Q1 FY27. Execution crossed 66% by Q1 FY26, 80% by Q3 FY26 and 86% by Q4 FY26; not yet commissioned as of Q1 FY27.