1. EBITDA margin improvement of another 100-200 bps from a 12.5% steady state On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management stated the current EBITDA margin of 12.5% is a “sustainable” and “steady state level”, and at the Q4 FY26 call guided it can improve by another 100-200 bps going forward. FY26 standalone EBITDA margin was \~12%, approximately achieving the steady-state claim, while the further improvement target has no explicit deadline.
2. Merger synergies to play out continuously over 6-18 months On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management stated merger value-creation benefits would “play out continuously over the next 6 to 18 months” (by Q2-Q4 FY27), and at Q2 FY26 noted “the reasons for the merger are now starting to come in”. FY26 gross margins improved \~250 bps to \~38% and the Products segment PBIT margin rose from 12.85% in FY25 to 15.23% in FY26 (SQL), with the synergy window still open.
3. Services business breakeven at ₹50-60 cr revenue with order book at 70-80% of that Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management stated the services business needed \~₹50-60 cr of non-large-scale project revenue to breakeven and the order book was already at “70%, 80% of that level”, later revising the breakeven requirement to \~₹15-20 cr after closing the current project. FY26 Flares & Process Equipment revenue was ₹56.71 cr with a PBIT margin of -40.66% (SQL), and the Q4 FY26 transcript recorded a gain in the process equipment segment with no further loss expected.
4. Double revenue over 4 years to ₹2,000 cr turnover by FY29 On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management stated an internal mandate to “double our revenue over the next 4 years” (by FY29), and at Q4 FY26 reiterated the principle of tripling earnings and getting to ₹2,000 cr turnover by FY29. FY25 revenue was ₹1,117 cr and FY26 revenue was ₹1,140 cr (SQL), with the FY29 horizon not yet reached.
5. Overall EBITDA margin to move up towards 14% Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided overall EBITDA margin should move up towards 14%, later revising to a “bare minimum” operating margin of 10% that “has to be little bit better than that” and a 12.5% steady state. FY24 EBITDA margin was 10.2%, FY25 was 9.3%, and FY26 was \~12%, with the 14% target not achieved.
6. Exports to become more than 20% of sales over five years On track - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided exports can become “more than 20% of our sales” over the next five years (by FY28). FY24 exports were \~₹120 cr on welding business revenue of \~₹884 cr, or \~13.6%, FY25 exports grew >25%, and FY26 exports were “fairly flattish”, with the five-year horizon still open.
7. Capex of ₹30-35 cr in FY27 On track - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided \~₹30 cr capex in FY24 and \~₹40-45 cr over two years, later revising to \~₹40 cr for FY26-FY27 and finally to \~₹30-35 cr for FY27. FY26 capex was ₹22.17 cr (SQL) and CWIP declined from ₹25.37 cr in FY24 to ₹3.16 cr in FY26 (SQL), with the FY27 target horizon not yet reached.
8. Equipment segment margins closer to 14-15% EBIT in FY24 Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided equipment margins “closer to” 14-15% EBIT in FY24, later walking the target down to a steady-state of “about 7%, 8%, 9%”. FY24 equipment margin was 4.6%, and subsequent segment restructuring combined equipment with consumables into a Products segment that reported PBIT margins of 12.85% in FY25 and 15.23% in FY26 (SQL), making equipment-only performance impossible to isolate.
9. FPD (Flares) gross margin around 20% and Uran project at least 18-20% Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, management expected FPD division gross margins around 20%, and at Q4 FY23 guided the Uran project gross margin at “at least 18%-20%”. The flares division reported a loss of \~₹5-6 cr in FY24, the services segment EBIT margin was -19.42% in FY25 (SQL), and the Flares & Process Equipment segment PBIT margin was -40.66% in FY26 (SQL), with cumulative losses of ₹63 cr from June 2023.
10. Ador Fontech merger completion timeline Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management expected the merger to close within calendar year 2023, later guiding completion by FY24, earliest in Q4 FY24, listing on 7th May 2024, and finally taking effect in H1 FY25. The merger was effected on 25th September 2024 and integration was \~98% complete by Q4 FY25.
11. Exports growth of 40-50% going forward Partial - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided exports growth of 40-50% going forward, later revising to “at least 20%” for FY24, “35%, 40%” for FY25, and “approximately 25% to 30%” for FY25, before guiding international growth would be “a little more muted” than 20-25%. FY24 exports doubled to \~₹120 cr, FY25 exports grew >25%, but FY26 guidance was for more muted growth with no specific FY26 export figures provided in the cited sources.
12. ONGC Uran flare project execution timeline and revenue recognition Partial - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided ONGC order revenues would start from Q4 FY23 with 75-80% over FY24 and execution of 18-24 months from July 2022, later revising to 90% execution by June/July 2024, completion by H1 FY26, and finally on track to complete in Q3 FY26. The project was still not commissioned by Q4 FY26, with the Flares segment remaining loss-making, missing multiple explicit deadlines.
13. Volume growth of \~7% as a baseline going forward Partial - At the Q3 FY23 call, management stated the \~7% volume growth seen in Q3 FY23 should be a “baseline level” going forward. FY24 consumables volume growth was 10-12%, but FY25 domestic volume was “fairly flat”, H1 FY26 domestic volumes were up \~4-5%, and FY26 revenue growth was 1.54% (SQL), with the sustained baseline not maintained.