1. Bobble AI exclusive monetization partnership - at least five years Delivered - At the Q2 FY21 call, Bobble AI named Affle the exclusive monetization partner for at least the next five years. Q1 FY23 management reaffirmed the five-year exclusive partnership with SDK integrated in the Bobble keyboard; by Q1 FY27 Bobble had \~1.5-1.8 crore active users, with insolvency proceedings triggered and Affle's appeal pending.
2. Dividend policy - no dividends for first five years of listing Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management reiterated the listing roadshow policy: "for the first five years of listing, we will not distribute the dividends". The company listed on August 8, 2019, and no dividend distribution is disclosed through Q1 FY27, covering the five-year window to August 2024.
3. M&A in 2023 should not average down margins Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, management committed that M&A done "at least in 2023... should not average us down in terms of our margins". YouAppi contributed over ₹45 cr in Q1 FY24 at \~11% standalone EBITDA margin, and FY24 consolidated EBITDA margin came in at 19.6% versus 20.4% in FY23.
4. Developed markets meaningful results in next couple of quarters from Q3 FY23 Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, management committed to "meaningful results in the next couple of quarters" in developed markets via action plans to neutralize the contraction. Q4 FY23 international revenue grew only \~9% y-o-y with Fintech and Entertainment shrinking, and developed markets de-grew in April-May 2023 before bottoming out in June 2023.
5. H2 FY23 revenue to meet or beat \~10% sequential growth vs H1 Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided that the industry near-term outlook was \~10% sequential growth in H2 vs H1 FY23 and said Affle hopes to meet or beat that on revenue. H1 FY23 revenue was ₹702.1 cr and H2 FY23 was ₹731.9 cr, a sequential growth of \~4.2%, below the \~10% outlook.
6. 5-year modelling framework - \~20% top-line, \~25% bottom-line compounding On track - At the Q2 FY25 call, management suggested a 5-year modelling framework of \~20% annual top-line and \~25% bottom-line compounding, calling it "achievable" and "realistic", later restated as \~20%+ growth over the next 5 years. FY25 revenue grew 23.0% and PAT 28.5%; FY26 revenue grew 19.5% and PAT 19.1%; Q1 FY27 revenue grew 20.4% and PAT 21.7%.
7. Inventory & data cost range 60-65% of revenue Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided inventory & data cost to "continue to be in a range of about 60%-65%" of revenue, later defending the \~61.6% level. The ratio ran from 60.7% in Q3 FY23 through 61.1% in Q2 FY25 to 63.2% in Q1 FY27, staying within the range throughout.
8. Effective tax rate \~18.7-19% as new standard Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management stated the 18.7% Effective Tax Rate will be "a new standard for us", later guiding \~19% plus or minus a few basis points. Actual ETRs ran 18.7% in Q1 FY25, 16.8% in Q4 FY25, 19.3% in Q4 FY26 and 18.6% in Q1 FY27.
9. Employee expenses largely flattish - foreseeable future from Q1 FY25 Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management expected employee expenses to stay "largely flattish, at least for the foreseeable future". Q1 FY25 employee expenses grew only \~4% y-o-y, Q4 FY25 declined 2.9% y-o-y, and Q1 FY27 rose 7.8% y-o-y, keeping growth low single-digit while revenue grew \~20%+.
10. Developed Markets to grow at least 20%+ consistently On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said Developed Markets should grow at least 20%+ consistently, with internal plans pegged at 25% growth. Q1 FY27 Developed Markets grew 20.7% y-o-y, but the preceding quarters ran 16.8% in Q2 FY26, 17.8% in Q3 FY26 and 18.0% in Q4 FY26.
11. $1 billion revenue milestone - next few years Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management stated the next milestone of $1 billion revenue is "around the corner in the next few years". Q1 FY27 revenue was ₹747 cr and FY26 revenue was ₹2,709 cr, so the milestone remains several years away at current growth rates.
12. Gross margins to return to better levels - in about two years from Q4 FY26 Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided that in about a year it should achieve the needed verticalization and intel across key geographies, with another year to bring gross margins back to better levels. Inventory and data costs stood at 63.3% of revenues in Q4 FY26 and 63.2% in Q1 FY27, leaving gross margin at \~36.8% with no improvement yet disclosed.
13. OpticksAI 100% adoption across all campaigns - within this year or beyond On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, management expected OpticksAI to be "100% adopted across all campaigns within the course of this year or beyond". OpticksAI was integrated into the unified Consumer Platform Stack with rollout begun to premium clients, and by Q4 FY26 it and Niko were driving creative optimization and automated campaign management; 100% adoption is not yet confirmed.
14. Acquisition playbook - 20/20 rule for future acquisitions On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, management stated it will only acquire companies that can achieve \~20% EBITDA and \~20% y-o-y top-line growth - the "20/20 rule has to be absolutely sacrosanct" - modelling at least 1 acquisition every 2 years over the next 5-10 years. The AdColony asset acquisition was completed by Q1 FY27, with 4 shortlisted targets under evaluation.
15. Preferential issue of ₹1,100 crore warrants - for acquisition opportunities this year Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, the Board approved a preferential issue under which promoter Affle Holdings will acquire \~0.74 crore warrants at ₹1,487, totaling approximately ₹1,100 crore with 25% upfront, to be ready for acquisition opportunities "this year". The Q1 FY27 PPT shows 140,796,384 shares outstanding as of June 30, 2026 with no mention of the warrant issue.
16. Anuj Khanna Sohum re-appointed as Chairperson for next 10 years Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, Anuj Khanna Sohum was re-appointed as Chairperson of Affle for the next 10 years, alongside continuing as MD & CEO, confirmed in the February 2025 announcement. The re-appointment was disclosed as effective, with no subsequent change disclosed through Q1 FY27.
17. Offer document objects - completion by March 2027 On track - The offer document objects - technology/IP development, funding inorganic growth, repayment of subsidiaries' acquisition liabilities, and GCP - each carry a completion date of March 2027. All four objects were reported "On Schedule" with no delay in the March 2026 and June 2026 monitoring reports, with GCP proceeds utilised of ₹125.74 crore.
18. Bobble investment - decisive step in next few quarters Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said it will take a decisive step on the Bobble investment (₹136 crore) "in the next few quarters", with impairment to be tested once the NCLT appeal is decided. Bobble has \~1.5-1.8 crore active users, an insolvency proceeding was triggered over \~₹5 crore, and Affle has appealed with no reliable basis yet for permanent impairment.
19. OCF-to-PAT ratio normalize to 80-85% by Q3 FY27 Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management expected the OCF to PAT ratio to normalize to about 80%-85% by Q3 FY2027. Q1 FY27 OCF to EBITDA conversion was \~41%, attributed to upfront collections of \~₹40-45 cr in March, while FY26 OCF to PAT was 110%.
20. Developed Markets margin expansion - within FY27 Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said margin expansion should happen "within this financial year", especially in Developed Markets. Q1 FY27 Developed Markets grew 20.7% y-o-y and contributed 27.8% of revenue, with consolidated EBITDA margin at 22.4%; no segment-level Developed Markets margin disclosure is present in the record.
21. AdColony asset acquisition - activate 100,000 mobile apps and 50 crore connected devices in Developed Markets in FY27 On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management aimed to activate over 100,000 mobile apps to reach over 50 crore connected devices in Developed Markets "this year" via the AdColony asset acquisition. The AdColony asset acquisition - tech stack, SDK, brand - was completed in 2026, with no disclosure yet on activated apps or connected devices.
22. One meaningfully sized inorganic transaction in 2026 On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management expected one meaningfully sized inorganic transaction in 2026, one more hopefully in 2028 and one more in 2030, later guiding a "realistic chance" of concluding within calendar 2026. Over 10 companies were evaluated with about 4 shortlisted, the AdColony asset acquisition was completed, and the larger M&A is targeted for early 2027.
23. OCF-to-PAT ratio >80% for FY26 Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, the CFO set a target of OCF-to-PAT ratio greater than 80%, expecting around 85%-95% OCF for FY26. FY26 operating cash flows were ₹502 cr against PAT of ₹455 cr, an OCF-to-PAT ratio of \~110%, confirmed at 110% in Q1 FY27.
24. 10x decadal growth vision On track - The "Powering 10x Decadal Growth" vision was announced in the Q4 FY25 PPT and reiterated across calls through Q1 FY27. Management reports 10x growth over the last 5 years and over 13x since the 2018 DRHP, with FY26 revenue at ₹2,709 cr.
25. Medium-term EBITDA margin \~23% and PAT margin 17-18% On track - At the Q3 FY25 call, the CFO guided EBITDA margin to stabilize at around 23% and PAT margin around 17% to 18% in the medium-term, clarifying "medium term doesn't mean the next year". EBITDA margin ran 22.5% in Q1 FY26 to 22.4% in Q1 FY27, while PAT margin ran 16.5% down to 16.0% and back to 16.6%.
26. FY26 EBITDA margin expansion - gradual, few basis points each year Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, the CFO guided to "gradual EBITDA margin expansion by a few basis points each year". FY25 EBITDA margin was 21.3% and FY26 EBITDA margin was 22.5%, an improvement of 120 basis points y-o-y, with Q1 FY27 at 22.4%.
27. FY26 revenue growth 20%+ (organic) Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided to 20%+ organic growth in FY2026 as a "sustainable" trajectory, reiterated at Q1 FY26 as "about 20%", and later clarified the guidance "has always been medium term". FY26 revenue was ₹2,709 cr, up 19.5% y-o-y, just below the 20%+ target.
28. FY25 EBITDA and PAT growth greater than revenue growth Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided that EBITDA and PAT growth for FY2025 will be greater than revenue growth, with margin expansion. FY25 revenue grew 23.0% y-o-y, EBITDA grew 34.2% and PAT grew 28.5%, both exceeding revenue growth.
29. FY25 revenue growth over 20% Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided "over 20% growth" in revenue for FY2025, stated "confidently and convincingly" with the "+" emphasized as important. FY25 revenue was ₹2,266.3 cr, up 23.0% y-o-y, above the 20%+ target.
30. Samsung India partnership Phase 3 completion - in 2023 Partial - At the Q2 FY24 call, management expected completion of the most significant Phase 3 of the Samsung India partnership - 12 touch points including premium Samsung Galaxy Appstore and Discover services - "in 2023 itself", with two phases already completed. Two phases of development and integrations were completed as of that quarter; no explicit disclosure of Phase 3 completion in 2023 is present in the record.
31. CPCU rate ₹55-58 for rest of FY24 Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided a CPCU rate of ₹55-58 for the rest of FY2024, with the goal to move it upwards towards ₹58. Actual CPCU rates were ₹55.0 in Q1 FY24, ₹55.6 in Q2 FY24, and ₹57.0 in both Q3 and Q4 FY24, all within the guided range.
32. FY24 PAT growth over 20% y-o-y Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided bottom-line (PAT) growth of over 20% y-o-y for FY2024, described as "sustainable and defensible". FY24 PAT was ₹297 cr, up 21.2% y-o-y, with normalized PAT of ₹297.3 cr, +21.2% y-o-y.
33. FY24 revenue to cross ₹1,800+ crore Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management said Affle is "well-poised to cross Rs. 1,800+ crore of revenues this year". FY24 revenue was ₹1,842.8 cr, up 28.5% y-o-y, crossing the ₹1,800+ cr mark within the stated fiscal year.
34. YouAppi EBITDA margin to mid-teens by June 2024 Partial - At the Q1 FY24 call, management committed to taking YouAppi's EBITDA margins to "mid-teens kind of levels, by the year end... by June-2024, that is after 12 months of its integration". YouAppi's standalone EBITDA margin was about 11% in Q1 FY24 and it contributed \~9.8% of consolidated EBITDA in Q3 FY24; integration was declared fully achieved within the first year, but no explicit mid-teens margin disclosure is present.
35. At least one inorganic transaction in FY24 Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management expected at least one inorganic transaction within FY2024, focused on verticalization and first-party data access: "Within this year, we should have at least one such transaction". The YouAppi SPA was entered May 24, 2023 for 100% shares at USD 45 million, consolidating from May 1, 2023, and Affle invested ₹37.3 cr for a 9.03% stake in Explurger in Q3 FY24.
36. FY24 consolidated EBITDA margin north of 20% Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, consolidated EBITDA margin was guided "north of 20%" for FY2024 across all quarters, with standalone margin profile close to 25% EBITDA. Actual quarterly EBITDA margins were 19.2% in Q1, 20.2% in Q2, 19.4% in Q3 and 19.5% in Q4, with FY24 full-year at 19.6%.
37. FY24 organic growth 20-25% - India and emerging markets Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management expected organic growth in a range of 20-25% for FY2024 for India and other emerging markets, over 81% of business, later advising conservative modelling. Quarterly India & Global Emerging Markets growth ran over 20% in Q1 FY24, \~20% in Q2, \~24% in Q3 and about 28% in Q4, with FY24 total revenue up 28.5%.
38. Developed markets turnaround - by Q3 FY24 / CY2023 Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, the CEO expected a developed-markets turnaround from Q2 FY2024 onwards with "clear measurable outcomes", internal reorganisation completed by Q1 FY2024, and at Q3 FY24 confirmed delivery of the turnaround in CY2023 as committed. Developed markets then grew \~67% y-o-y in Q3 FY24, \~105% in Q4 FY24, and stayed positive through Q1 FY27's 20.7%.
39. H2 FY23 EBITDA and PAT growth significantly higher than revenue growth Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management committed that EBITDA and PAT growth in H2 FY2023 "will be significantly higher than our growth on revenue". Q3 FY23 delivered revenue +10.8%, EBITDA +18.7% and normalized PAT +14.8% y-o-y, and Q4 FY23 revenue +12.9%, EBITDA +22.1% and normalized PAT +18.4%.
40. FY23 organic growth \~25% - full-year target Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management said Affle can "realistically aim to end FY2023 with y-o-y organic growth % aligned with the long-term industry growth of about 25% CAGR", with the goal "to not miss on the 25% organic growth long-term trend". Q2 FY23 organic growth was 29.1% y-o-y, India and emerging markets grew \~23% in Q3 and 20% in Q4, with FY23 total revenue up 32.6%.
41. CPCU rate to inch upwards - over next three to five years from Q4 FY22 Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management expected the CPCU rate to "inch upwards even with or without the Google changes over the next three to five years", reiterated through FY24. CPCU rose from ₹51.1 in Q4 FY22 to ₹55.0 in Q1 FY24, ₹57.8 in Q4 FY25 and ₹60.2 in Q1 FY27.
42. 20%+ operating-level profitability - over 24 months from Q4 FY22 Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management confirmed the commentary of scaling operating-level profitability to 20%+ over the next two years, with a 24-month view. EBITDA margin was 19.3% adjusted in Q4 FY22, crossed 20% by Q2 FY23 at 20.3%, and reached 22.5% in FY26, within and beyond the 24-month horizon.
43. Jampp EBITDA margin ramp - high single-digit in Year 1, mid-teens in Year 2, \~20% by Year 3 Partial - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided Jampp's EBITDA to high single-digit within FY22, mid-teens the next year, and closer to 20% "in the coming years". Jampp reached 7-8% by Q3 FY22 and close to 10% at completion of one year; the turnaround was declared complete in Q4 FY24, but no explicit mid-teens or \~20% margin disclosure is present.
44. India vs international revenue balance - 50:50 for next few years, then 60:40 international Delivered - At the Q3 FY21 call, management expected the India vs international balance to stay 50%:50% "in the next few years", and at Q4 FY21 said the shift should move to an approximate 60%:40% international range "as we go through the next year or so". The mix shifted to \~66% International / 34% India by Q2 FY22 and \~69% / 31% in Q3 FY22, remaining around 65-74% international through FY27.
45. 3 new centuries in FY21 - 10 crore+ conversions, ₹100 crore+ PAT, ₹100 crore+ cash flow from operations Delivered - At the Q3 FY21 call, management said Affle is "well set to hit 3 new centuries in FY2021 itself": 10 crore+ Conversions, 100 crore+ PAT, and 100 crore+ Cash flow from Operations. FY2021 delivered 103 crore+ PAT, 103 crore+ cash flow from operations and 10.5 crore+ conversions, on revenue of ₹516.8 cr and normalized PAT of ₹103.1 cr.
46. 25%-30% CAGR growth - next five years from FY21 Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management committed to y-o-y and CAGR growth of about 25% to 30% for the next five years, calling it "a conservative, but an important commitment from Affle", later reframed as \~20% top-line / \~25% bottom-line compounding and 20%+ growth over the next 5 years. FY21 revenue was ₹516.8 cr and FY26 revenue ₹2,709 cr, a five-year CAGR of \~39.3%, with FY22-FY26 CAGR reported at 25.8%.
47. 1,000 crore connected devices - by 2030 / decade ahead On track - At the Q2 FY21 call, management reiterated the Affle 2.0 goal of "connecting and meaningfully impacting the consumer journey over 1,000 crore connected devices by 2030", reiterated across the decade. Reach progressed from over 360 crore devices at Q4 FY25 to over 380 crore at Q2 FY26 and 400 crore+ for 12M July 2025-June 2026.
48. Revenue above ₹100 crore per quarter - going forward from Q1 FY21 Delivered - At the Q1 FY21 call, Anuj Khanna Sohum stated "I strongly believe that we will achieve well beyond the century mark in terms of revenues from here onwards". Q2 FY21 revenue was ₹135 cr, Q3 FY21 ₹150.5 cr, Q4 FY21 ₹141.6 cr, and every subsequent quarter in the record exceeded ₹100 cr.
49. 8-10% PAT contribution from Appnext and Mediasmart - FY21 Delivered - At the Q1 FY21 call, management aimed for around 8%-10% PAT contribution from Appnext and Mediasmart on a standalone basis "this year" (FY21), up from 5-6% in Q1, with Anuj Khanna Sohum "even more confident". Inorganic contribution reached \~11% of PAT in Q2 FY21 and \~11%+ from Appnext and Mediasmart in Q3 FY21, before \~7% in Q4 FY21.