1. Konkan Storage Systems acquisition - capacity addition Pending - At the Q1 FY26 call, management announced the acquisition of 100% equity of Konkan Storage Systems Private Limited, with existing capacity of more than 24,000 tons and total capex of more than ₹30 cr, subject to regulatory approvals. Our record holds no disclosure of the acquisition closing; the transaction was announced post-Q1 FY26 and remained subject to regulatory approvals and execution of the share purchase agreement.
2. Top-line target - ₹4,000-5,000 cr in five years On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management reiterated a long-term top-line target of "Rs. 4,000 crores to Rs. 5,000 crores in next five years," implying FY30. FY25 revenue was ₹2,399 cr and FY26 revenue fell 31.13% to ₹1,652 cr, moving in the opposite direction from the required trajectory, but the FY30 horizon remains open (SQL).
3. Mangalore storage terminal - operational Q2 FY26 Pending - At the Q4 FY25 call, management stated the new 40,000 MT storage terminal at Mangalore port is "expected to become operational in Q2 FY 2026" and reiterated at Q1 FY26 that it "will be operational in this year". Our record holds no disclosure confirming the terminal became operational in Q2 FY26; it was under construction as of Q1 FY26.
4. Volume doubling - 2x in 2-3 years from FY24 On track - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided a vision of doubling volume in the next 2-3 years from FY24, reiterated at Q2 FY25 as doubling from FY24 base in \~3 years to 8 lakh tons, and at Q1 FY26 as FY28 target unchanged. FY24 base volume was 4,91,000 MT, FY25 grew 9.2% to 5,35,939 MT, and FY26 Q1 volume was down 26.9% YoY, well below the \~23% CAGR required, but the FY26-FY27 horizon remains open.
5. ROCE/ROE - maintain \~20% Partial - At the Q2 FY25 call and in non-transcript filings, management guided maintaining healthy ROCE and ROE of around 20%. FY24 ROE was 21.37% but ROCE was 16.96%; FY25 ROE fell to 18.45% and ROCE to 15.52%; FY26 ROE dropped to 6.32% and ROCE to 8.08% (SQL).
6. FY25 revenue and EPS - 20%+ growth, 20% EPS CAGR Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call and in non-transcript filings, management guided FY25 revenue and volume growth over 20% YoY and a targeted 20% CAGR in EPS. FY25 revenue grew 12.87% and PAT grew 5.92%, implying EPS growth well below the 20% CAGR target (SQL; D24 p.8).
7. Per-MT profit - ₹3,600-3,700 Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided that per-MT profit should "definitely go to about 3,600-3,700 per MT" with the addition of new vessels. FY24 EBITDA per MT was ₹3,625, landing within the guided range, though subsequent quarters showed volatility with Q4 FY25 at \~₹2,900 and Q1 FY26 at \~₹3,050.
8. FY24 EBITDA margin - 8.5%-9.0% Missed - At the Q2 FY24 call, management guided FY24 EBITDA margin in the range of 8.5%-9.0%. FY24 EBITDA margin was 8.13%, below the lower bound of the guided range (SQL).
9. FY25 consolidated revenue - ₹1,200 crore Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management guided consolidated revenue of ₹1,200 crore in FY25. FY25 consolidated revenue was ₹2,399 cr, nearly double the guided figure, suggesting the ₹1,200 cr figure was likely a transcription error or misstatement.
10. Dahej blending unit - commissioned by Q4 FY25 Missed - At the Q2 FY24 call, management guided that the new blending unit at the Dahej plant, originally scheduled for Q2 FY24 but delayed due to regulatory approvals, will be commissioned by Q4 FY25. The FY25 annual report was filed in August 2025 with no mention of the unit's commissioning, and CWIP rose from nil in FY24 to ₹15.55 cr in FY25, indicating the project remained incomplete past its deadline.
11. Own-vessel EBITDA savings - \~₹50 cr from 20% margin on own-vessel volume Pending - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided that meeting demand through own bitumen vessels would yield 20% on the volume from vessel operations, translating to "somewhere around 50 crores" EBITDA savings. FY25 shipping segment EBIT margin was 25%, consistent with the 20%+ margin expectation, but no explicit disclosure of ₹50 cr EBITDA savings from own-vessel operations exists in our record.
12. Own-vessel volume share - 80%-90%, possibly 100% Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided they will try to bring in quantities on a basis of about 80%-90% through own vessels, possibly even 100%, later revised to 65%-70% in the next year at Q4 FY24 and 65%-70% in FY26 at Q4 FY25. Own-vessel share improved from \~47% in FY23 to \~60% in FY24 and FY25, and 60%-63% in Q1 FY26, representing meaningful progress but far short of the original 80%-90% target.
13. Capex plan - ₹150 cr in FY24 to add 20,000 MT vessel capacity Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided a capex plan of about ₹150 cr in the year to add 20,000 metric tons of capacity. In Q3 FY24, the company added MT Gauri with 47,999 MT capacity for \~₹145 cr, increasing total vessel capacity from \~48,550 MT in FY23 to \~1,02,049 MT in FY24, far exceeding the 20,000 MT target.
14. Overtake Mumbai refinery volume - 600,000 tons in two years Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management stated "we are able to sell more than a particular refinery that is producing in Mumbai. Right now it is producing about 600,000 tons in a year; which we will try to overtake in the next two years". FY25 volume was 5,35,939 MT, falling short of the 600,000-ton target by the two-year deadline of FY25.
15. Debt-free by 2024 Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management stated the company can "go debt free by 2024" if it does not undertake major capex, later revised at Q2 FY24 to net debt to zero by end of FY25. Net debt was ₹247 cr at FY24 and increased to ₹340 cr at FY25, with total debt at ₹336 cr as of 14 Jul 2026, far from zero.
16. Market share - maintain 20%-30% in private bitumen On track - At the Q4 FY22 call, management stated the company is "trying to maintain" a market share in the private bitumen industry "between say 20% and 25% or about 28%-30%". Through FY26, management disclosures consistently reported market share within or near this range, including \~25% in Q2 FY23, 20%-30% in FY23 and FY24 PPTs, and nearly 20% in Q1 FY26.
17. Annual volume growth target - 20%-25% every year Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management stated the company has always internally targeted volume growth of "minimum about 20% to 25%" per year, reiterated across multiple calls and later revised downward to 10%-20% at Q4 FY23, 15%-20% at Q4 FY24, and \~10% for FY26 at Q1 FY26. Volume growth was 10.13% in FY23, 15.80% in FY24, 9.2% in FY25, and negative in FY26 with Q1 volume down 26.9% YoY, achieving the target only in FY24 within the revised 15-20% band.
18. Fleet expansion - add 2 or 3 more vessels Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided plans to add 2 or 3 more vessels to the then 5-vessel fleet to help increase revenues in UAE. The fleet grew to 6 vessels by Q4 FY22 and 8 vessels by Q3 FY23, meeting and exceeding the 2-3 vessel addition target within \~2 years.
19. FY22 topline - 20% higher than FY21 Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided that the company should do "20% higher" topline than FY21. FY22 revenue was ₹1,601.99 cr, a 76.82% increase over FY21 revenue of ₹905.50 cr, exceeding the 20% target.
20. FY22 EBITDA margin - maintain or exceed FY21 level Missed - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided that the company will maintain FY21 EBITDA margins for FY22 "or even higher". FY22 EBITDA margin was 6.84%, falling short of FY21's 8.05% margin.