1. Aluminium cans plant - operational by Q3 FY28, 160 cr cans by FY30 On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided the aluminium cans plant in Uttar Pradesh will be operational by Q3 FY28, initially producing 95 cr cans and expanding to 160 cr cans by FY30. Land has been identified and the government is in the process of releasing it, while equipment supplier negotiation has been completed.
2. FY27 volume growth \~8-9%, FY28 growth 15-17% with greenfield Pending - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided FY27 volume growth of around 8% to 9% and FY28 growth of around 15% to 17% with the 25% capacity addition from the Greenfield project. Horizon not yet reached (FY27, FY28).
3. FY27 onwards - sustained 15-20% YoY growth, double topline every 4 years Pending - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided that from FY27 onwards, the company targets sustained year-on-year growth of 15% to 20%, aiming to double the top line every 4 years. Horizon not yet reached (FY27 onwards).
4. Blended EBITDA margin post-FY28 - 22-23% Pending - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided that the blended EBITDA margin post-FY28 should be in the range of around 22% to 23%. Horizon not yet reached (post-FY28).
5. 2.5x current size in 5-6 years (from FY25 base) Pending - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided that the company should be able to grow 2.5x of current size in a span of 5 to 6 years, implying \~₹6,322 cr from a FY25 base of ₹2,529 cr. Horizon not yet reached (FY30-31).
6. Container glass debottlenecking - capacity to 1,900 TPD by March 2026 Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided container glass capacity increase from 1,850 TPD to 1,900 TPD, operational by March 2026. The debottlenecking was fully completed and commissioned ahead of the March 2026 schedule, confirmed by Q3 FY26.
7. Specialty glass debottlenecking - capacity to 200 TPD by March 2026 Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided specialty glass capacity expansion from 154 TPD to 200 TPD, operational by March 2026. The expansion to 200 TPD was completed as confirmed in the Q4 FY26 PPT.
8. Greenfield plant (500 TPD, Madhya Pradesh) - commissioned by end of FY27 On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided the Greenfield project of 500 TPD in Madhya Pradesh will be commissioned by the end of FY27. Land acquisition has been completed, civil construction is underway, and machinery procurement is in advanced stages as of Q4 FY26.
9. FY26 EBITDA margin range 22-25% Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided EBITDA margin in a range of 22% to 25% for FY26. FY26 EBITDA margin excluding other income was 22.31% and including other income was 25.9%, landing within the guided range (SQL; D21 p.21).
10. FY26 revenue growth 8-10% Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided revenue growth of 8% to 10% for FY26. FY26 revenue was ₹2,665 cr, growth of 5.4% YoY, falling short of the 8-10% target but representing meaningful progress.
11. Specialty glass furnace - 90-95% utilisation by end of FY25 Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided that the specialty glass furnace of 154 TPD will reach 90-95% utilisation levels by the end of FY25. Utilisation was close to 70% in Q1 FY25 and reached only \~85% by Q3 FY26, missing the FY25 deadline.
12. Furnace #3 rebuild - add 80-100 TPD by Q2 FY25 Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided that furnace number three rebuild will add capacity of 80 to 100 tonnes per day and will be completed by the end of Q2 FY25. The furnace resumed operation in late August 2024, within Q2 FY25, and the debottlenecking added 70-80 tons of capacity.
13. EBITDA margin range 21-23% (medium term) Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management guided margins should be in a range of 21-23% and that is their aim to maintain those margins. FY24 EBITDA margin was \~24.1%, FY25 was 26.5%, and FY26 was 22.3%, consistently at or above the upper end of the guided range.
14. FY25 revenue growth \~10% (AGI standalone) Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management projected \~10% growth on existing businesses for FY25. FY25 revenue from operations was ₹2,529 cr, growth of 5% YoY, falling short of the \~10% target but representing meaningful progress (SQL; D25 p.2).
15. 154 TPD specialty glass furnace - peak utilisation within FY24 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided that the new specialty glass furnace of 154 TPD will reach its highest level of capacity utilisation within FY24. Capacity utilisation remained at 65-70% through FY24, and the target was subsequently pushed to FY25.
16. FY24 incremental margin expansion of 1-1.5% Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided incremental margin expansion should be 1-1.5% for FY24. FY24 EBITDA margin was \~24.1% versus FY23 \~21.1%, an expansion of \~3 percentage points, exceeding the target.
17. FY24 revenue growth 15-18% Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided FY24 growth of around 15% to 18%. FY24 revenue from operations was ₹2,421 cr, growth of 6% YoY, falling well short of the 15-18% target.
18. B2C segment (Sand Dune) - scale to ₹200 cr revenue, ₹50 cr EBITDA in 5 years Pending - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided that the B2C segment has potential to scale to ₹200 cr in revenue with ₹50 cr EBITDA in 5 years. The retail business was incorporated as a subsidiary in October 2024, and the 5-year horizon from Q4 FY23 runs to FY28, which is not yet due.
19. HNG acquisition - completion expected within 3-4 months (from Q4 FY23) Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided they should get a positive outcome on the HNG acquisition in the next 3-4 months. The Supreme Court ruled against AGI Greenpac's resolution plan and the Committee of Creditors rejected the bid, resulting in the acquisition not completing.
20. Debt-to-EBITDA ≤3x Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided that the company's target leverage is debt to EBITDA of around three times or less. Net debt to EBITDA was 0.22x in FY25 and 0.11x in FY26, with gross debt of ₹239 cr against EBITDA of ₹595 cr, comfortably below the 3x target.
21. ROCE 18%+ moving to 20% over next few years Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided that the company can achieve 18% plus ROCE going forward and should move from 18% to 20% over the next few years. FY26 consolidated ROCE was 19.41% and the Packaging Products segment ROCE reached 21.3%, crossing the 20% threshold on a segment basis (SQL; D21 p.22).
22. FY23 topline sustained at Q1 FY23 run-rate Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided that the company will be able to sustain the Q1 FY23 topline run-rate of ₹522 cr throughout the year. Q2 FY23 revenue dipped to ₹513 cr below the run-rate, though H2 recovered strongly with Q3 at ₹567 cr and Q4 at ₹680 cr.
23. FY23 EBITDA margin sustained at 18-18.5% Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided that the company's EBITDA margin should remain at around 18-18.5% for FY23. FY23 EBITDA margin was \~21.1%, exceeding the guided range.
24. 154 TPD specialty glass furnace - commercial production by \~Nov-Dec 2022, ₹250-260 cr annualised revenue at peak Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided the 154 TPD specialty glass furnace would commence commercial operations in three to four months, with annualised revenue potential of ₹250 cr to ₹260 cr at peak utilisation. Commercial production commenced on 1 January 2023, roughly on time, but peak utilisation was repeatedly pushed and had reached only \~85% by Q3 FY26.
25. 100 TPD debottlenecking expansion - +100 TPD container glass capacity by early FY24 Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided a 100-tonne-per-day debottlenecking expansion taking total container glass capacity from 1,600 to 1,700 TPD by early FY24. The debottlenecking was completed and capacity added by end of Q1 FY24, with the furnace operational in July 2023.