Ambuja Cements Ltd Guidance Report - SOIC x StockScans Report
as of Aug 2026
- Power cost to ₹4.5 per kWh by FY28
On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided a 60% green power share to cut power cost from \~₹6/unit to \~₹4.5/unit by FY28. Unit power cost fell from ₹5.9/kWh to \~₹4.9 in Q1 FY27, with the ₹4.5 target in progress.
- Sea logistics share of 5% via 7 vessels
On track - At the Q2 FY26 announcement, management targeted a 5% sea logistics share with 7 vessels of 65,800 DWT ordered, delivery from mid-2027. The 7 vessels remain on order with delivery expected from FY27 onwards.
- Marwar Mundwa greenfield - 1.8 MTPA
Delivered - In the FY21 annual report, the Marwar Mundwa greenfield project was slated to add 1.8 MTPA cement capacity. The Marwar plant was commissioned in FY22, adding the full 1.8 MTPA.
- Sanghi and Penna amalgamation in the next financial year
Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management announced the merger of Penna, Adani Cementation and Sanghi, hopeful of consummation in the next financial year. The Sanghi merger completed effective March 12, 2026 and Penna on April 10, 2026.
- ACC and Orient amalgamation close by FY27
On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management announced the proposed amalgamation of ACC and Orient Cement with Ambuja, approvals progressing; at the Q1 FY27 call the CEO hoped to close it "this financial year". The merger is in "advanced stages" with SEBI NOC awaited as of Q1 FY27.
- FY28 capex of ₹6,000-7,000 crores
Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management indicated FY28 capex of ₹6,000-7,000 crores on a run-rate basis. No outcome yet - FY28 has not been reached.
- Capacity additions of 0.8-1 crore tons a year in FY28/FY29
Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided \~0.8-1 crore tons of organic capacity additions every year for FY28/FY29. No outcome yet - FY28/FY29 have not been reached.
- 100% in-house RE consumption within 3 quarters
On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, Karan Adani committed to 100% in-house consumption of RE power and fly ash "in the next 3 quarters". Q1 FY27 saw 45 crore units of green power sold, with \~50% (\~20 crore units) expected in-house in Q2.
- Trade sales share upwards of 75% in subsequent quarters
Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call (July 28, 2026), management committed trade sales share would be "upwards of 75%" in subsequent quarters. Trade sales share was 78% in Q1 FY27 itself; no subsequent-quarter outcome is yet available in the sources.
- RE capacity of 1,122 MW by FY27
On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided RE capacity of 1,122 MW by FY27, reiterated at the Q3 FY26 and Q1 FY27 calls. RE capacity stood at 973 MW as of Q1 FY27.
- WHRS capacity of 376 MW by FY28
On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided WHRS capacity to rise from 228 MW to almost 376 MW; the Q4 FY24 PPT had set 376 MW cumulative by FY 2027-28. WHRS capacity was 228 MW as of Q1 FY27.
- Mundra project on stream in \~18-24 months
Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided the Mundra project on stream in \~18-24 months, i.e. 2029. No outcome yet - the horizon has not been reached.
- First coal block operational in \~30 months
Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided the first coal block to be operationalized in \~30 months, roughly 2-2.5 years. No outcome yet - the 30-month horizon has not been reached.
- FY27 capex of ₹6,500 crores
On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided FY27 capex of almost ₹6,000-6,500 crores, refined at the Q1 FY27 call to "closer to ₹6,500 crores". Q1 FY27 capex was \~₹1,500-1,600 crores, about 25% of the target.
- Capacity of 11.9 crore tons by end FY27
On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management expected capacity of almost 11.9 crore tonnes by end of FY27, reiterated at the Q1 FY27 call. Installed capacity was 10.9 crore tons in Q1 FY27, with trial runs underway at Dahej, Salai Banwa, Bathinda and Jodhpur.
- FY27 volume growth of 8%
On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided FY27 consolidated volumes of \~8 crore tonnes, \~8% growth, reiterated at the Q1 FY27 call despite a weak quarter. Q1 FY27 volumes fell \~7% YoY, but July 2026 showed 8% YoY improvement in trade volumes.
- FY27 cost of ₹4,250 per ton
On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, Karan Adani committed to \~₹250/tonne of cost reduction in FY27, clarifying the FY27 cost target as ₹4,250 per tonne, reiterated at the Q1 FY27 call. Q1 FY27 net operating cost was ₹4,241/ton, down ₹206/ton sequentially.
- Green power share of 31% by FY25
Partial - At the Q2 FY25 call, management said the \~31% green power share target for FY25 was now seen at 20%-odd, citing 1-2 months of rain delays. Green power share was 26% in Q4 FY25 and 21% for FY25 - the revised target met, the original 31% missed.
- Kalamboli, Dahej and Jodhpur Penna grinding units by Q3 FY26
Partial - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided Kalamboli, Dahej, Jodhpur Penna and Krishnapatnam units for Q3 FY26, later pushed to end FY26. Jodhpur was commissioned and Dahej (0.12 crore tons) entered trial runs in Q1 FY27, while Kalamboli slipped to Q2 FY27.
- Bathinda and Marwar grinding units by Q2 FY26
Partial - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided Bathinda and Marwar Mundwa brownfield expansions for Q2 FY26, later pushed to end FY26. Marwar was commissioned in Q3 FY26 ahead of schedule; Bathinda started in Q1 FY27.
- Warisaliganj grinding unit by end FY26
Partial - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided Warisaliganj (Bihar) commissioning by end of FY26, reiterated through Q4 FY25, then rescheduled to Q1 FY27 and later Q2 FY27. The 0.24 crore ton unit was not commissioned as of Q1 FY27, expected in Q2 FY27.
- Maratha (Chandrapur) 0.4 crore ton clinker line by Q4 FY26
Missed - At the Q2 FY24 call, management guided the 0.4 crore ton clinker line at Maratha for Q4 FY26, pushed repeatedly through Q2 FY26, Q3 FY26, Q1-Q2 FY27 and FY27. The line was not commissioned as of Q1 FY27, now expected in Q1 FY28.
- Salai Banwa grinding unit by Q1 FY26
Partial - At the Q2 FY24 call, management guided the Salai Banwa grinding unit for Q1 FY26, later pushed to Q2 FY26 and then Q3 FY26. The unit started in Q1 FY27, roughly 4 quarters after the original timeline.
- Sankrail and Farakka grinding units by Q3 FY25
Partial - At the Q2 FY24 call, management guided Sankrail and Farakka grinding units for Q3 FY25, later pushed to Q4 FY25 and Q1 FY26. Farakka was commissioned in Q4 FY25 and Sankrail in FY26, roughly 2-3 quarters late.
- Bhatapara 0.4 crore ton clinker line by Q4 FY25
Partial - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided the Bhatapara 0.4 crore tonne clinker facility for Q4 FY25, later pushed to Q1 FY26. Trial runs began by Q2 FY26 and Line 3 was commissioned and ramping up by Q3 FY26, about 2 quarters late.
- Krishnapatnam expansion in 9 months
Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, Vinod Bahety gave Krishnapatnam a timeline of "say, nine months", later pushed to Q3 FY26 and then Q2 FY26. The 0.2 crore ton grinding unit was operational by Q2 FY26, about 9 months past the original December 2024 date.
- Marwar Jodhpur plant in 12 months
Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided the Marwar Jodhpur plant completion in about 12 months, i.e. by June 2025, later pushed to Q3 FY26. The Jodhpur 3 MTPA clinkering line was commissioned in FY26, roughly 9 months late, with trial production running by Q1 FY27.
- Capacity of 10 crore tons by FY25-end and 11.8 crore tons by FY26-end
Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, Vinod Bahety guided \~10 crore tons by end FY25 and \~11 crore tons by FY26, with 11.8 crore tons by end FY26 set from Q2 FY25. Capacity crossed 10 crore tons in Q4 FY25 but stood at 10.9 crore tons as of Q1 FY27, short of the 11.8 crore ton FY26 target.
- Premium products share to high 20s/30%
Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided premium products share up from 22% to high 20s/30%, raised to \~35% for FY26 at the Q4 FY25 call. Premium share reached 35% in Q2 FY26 and 36% in Q4 FY26.
- B2B share of 25% by FY27
Pending - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided B2B share up from 21% to 25% by FY27. No specific B2B disclosure followed; trade sales share of 74% in Q4 FY26 and 78% in Q1 FY27 implies \~22-26% B2B.
- Top line of ₹70,000 crores by FY28
Pending - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided top line to more than double to around ₹70,000 crores, with EBITDA more than tripling to ₹17,500 crores at 25% margin. FY26 revenue was ₹40,656 crores with EBITDA ₹6,539 crores; the FY28 horizon remains live, so the outcome is not yet judgeable.
- Market share of 20% by FY28
On track - At the Q2 FY25 call, management reiterated an internal target of 20% market share by FY28 from \~15%; the Q4 FY24 PPT set 20% by FY28 from 14%. Market share reached 16.6% in Q2 FY26 and Q3 FY26.
- Sanghi EBITDA positive within a very short span
Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management said the MSA would turn Sanghi from EBITDA negative to EBITDA positive within a very short span. Sanghi turned EBITDA positive under the cost-plus-10% MSA by Q2 FY25, posting ₹36 crores EBITDA at 10.9% margin in Q4 FY25.
- Sanghi utilisation of 75-80% in the near future
Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, management targeted lifting Sanghi utilisation from 25-30% to 75-80% in the near future, later lowered to 65-70% for FY27. Utilisation was 37% in Q3 FY25 and 57% in Q4 FY26, with 65% cement utilisation at December 2025 exit.
- Penna utilisation of 80% within 36 months
On track - At the Q4 FY24 call, management set an 80% capacity utilisation target for Penna assets within 36 months, with management at Q2 FY25 expecting to beat it. Clinker utilisation reached 75-80% by Q4 FY25, but cement utilisation was 46% in FY26 against the \~mid-2027 deadline.
- Orient Cement acquisition of 46.8% stake
Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, Ambuja entered a binding agreement for 46.8% of Orient Cement, lifting capacity to 9.74 crore tons, with open offer payment expected mid-next year. The acquisition completed in April 2025, with \~₹5,500-5,600 crores paid for the 46% stake.
- Penna acquisition closing by Q2 FY25
Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management targeted full closing of the Penna acquisition "in a fortnight kind of thing", funded from internal accruals per the Q4 FY24 call. Penna contributed \~45 days of operations in Q2 FY25, and the merger completed effective April 10, 2026.
- Sanghi Industries acquisition closing by Q3 FY24
Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management said the Sanghi acquisition (announced August 3 at ₹5,000 crores enterprise value) would close in Q3 of the current year. By Q3 FY24 the deal had closed with ₹3,801 crores cash outflow, adding 0.66 crore tons clinker and 0.61 crore tons grinding capacity.
- Primary lead distance to \~100 km
On track - At the Q2 FY24 call, management targeted cutting average primary road lead distance to about 100 km from 175 km at takeover, later restated as a reduction of about 100 km to 170 km. Lead distance improved to 249 km in Q1 FY27 from 269 km YoY, but remains well short of the target, whose horizon extends beyond the latest reported quarter.
- Green power share of 60% by FY28
On track - At the Q3 FY24 call, management announced 1,000 MW of RE to deliver 60% of power needs from green sources, reiterated as a 60% by FY28 target through the Q1 FY27 call. Green power share grew from 15.6% in Q4 FY25 to 34% in Q1 FY27.
- RE capacity of 200 MW by FY24-end and 1,000 MW by FY26
Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management targeted 200 MW by FY24-end, raised at the Q3 FY24 call to 1,000 MW by FY26, later reset to 1,122 MW by FY27. RE capacity reached 673 MW by Q2 FY26 and 973 MW by Q1 FY27 - about 27 MW short of the FY26 goal.
- Cost reduction of ₹300-400 per ton, later raised to ₹550-500 over two years
Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management targeted ₹300-400/ton of cost reduction, raised to ₹550/ton by Q1 FY25 and to a ₹4,000/ton total cost by March 2026 exit. FY26 cost came in at ₹4,400/ton, "almost 10% higher to our own target"; the ₹3,650/ton FY28 goal was not withdrawn but deferred, with management reaffirming it while committing only ₹500/ton of reductions over the next two years.
- Coal supply contract of 16 lakh metric tons capped at $157
Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management committed to completing a \~16 lakh metric ton coal contract over \~6 months, between the March and June quarters, at a capped CIF price of $157. Coal advances were fully squared off by Q2 FY24 - Ambuja zero last quarter, ACC zero in the current quarter.
- EBITDA per ton of ₹1,000+ in coming quarters
Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, Vinod Bahety guided to 4-digit (₹1,000+) EBITDA per ton "in coming quarters", later raised to ₹1,450+ over 3-5 years and ₹1,500 by FY28. EBITDA/ton crossed ₹1,000 only intermittently - ₹1,225 in Q3 FY24, ₹1,001 in Q4 FY25 - and was ₹887 for FY26, with guidance declined from Q4 FY26.
- RMX plants from 78+ to over 250 mid-term
Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, Ajay Kapur committed to expanding RMX plants from 78 plus to over 250 in the mid-term, later restated as \~365 plants over a couple of years. RMX plants reached 100 by Q3 FY25 and stood at 119 RMC plants as of Q1 FY27.
- Capex program of ₹10,000 crores completed in \~18 months
Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, Ajay Kapur envisaged \~₹10,000 crores of capex in the short/medium term, with Vinod Bahety targeting completion in \~18 months, around June or September 2024. The program continued well beyond that horizon, with annual guidance of ₹8,000-10,000 crores through FY26 and ₹6,500 crores for FY27.
- Doubling capacity to 14 crore tons by FY28
Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, Ajay Kapur reiterated the five-year goal of doubling capacity from 6.75 crore tons to 14 crore tons, raised to 15.5 crore tons by FY28 at the Q2 FY26 call, then pushed to "on a safer side… FY30" at the Q4 FY26 call. Capacity was 10.9 crore tons as of Q1 FY27, well short of the 15.5 crore ton mark.
- Thermal substitution rate of 30% by 2027
Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, management committed to a 30% AFR target by 2027, with an interim 15% by end FY23 added at the Q4 FY23 call. AFR was 8.8% at Q4 FY23 and 7.1% in Q1 FY27, with the target lowered to 25% "down the line".
- Waste heat recovery capacity of 190-200 MW by March 2025
Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management committed to lifting WHRS capacity from \~65 MW to almost 190 MW by March 2025, raised to 218 MW by March 2025 at the Q2 FY25 call. WHRS capacity reached almost 218 MW by March 2025, meeting the raised target.
- Ametha integrated unit - commercial production from Q2 FY24
Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management committed to commissioning the new Ametha capacity "somewhere in March" with commercial production "somewhere in Q2" - 0.33 crore tons clinker plus 0.1 crore tons grinding. The unit was commissioned in Q2 FY24, with the 0.1 crore ton grinding unit also running by Q3 FY24.