• Yield curve dynamics: Despite cumulative repo rate cuts of 1% bringing the rate to 5.25%, 10-year G-sec yields rose by 20 paise, leading to capital losses for long-term bond investors as liquidity tightened.
• GDP growth outlook: With crude oil retreating below $93 after peaking at $120, domestic GDP actuals are expected to beat official estimates, aligning with historical patterns across 12 past conflicts where war caused no long-term GDP damage.
• Rupee and FIIs: The rupee recovered to 92–92.5 after the RBI curbed corporate onshore-offshore arbitrage, and FII inflows have an 80–90% probability of resuming by next quarter as short-term selling subsides.
• Nifty earnings forecast: Following a Q3 Nifty earnings figure of Rs 257 (a 3–3.5% year-on-year decline), FY26 full-year earnings are estimated to reach Rs 1,155–1,156, delivering 6–8% annual growth over FY25's Rs 1,070.