• ETF timing: Feroz said Gold ETF inflows have often arrived at the wrong time: ₹24,000 crore came in January when the average price was ₹1,75,000 per 10 grams, while ₹400 crore was withdrawn in April 2024 when the average price was ₹66,000. He said this reflects recency bias and was not sorry to see the ETF route shut.
• Portfolio allocation: He noted gold already represents 37% of Indian household savings—₹470 lakh crore out of ₹1,500-1,600 lakh crore, as he stated. Gold should not replace equity; if someone holds debt, he said they could keep half the amount of that debt in gold, citing 9-10% rolling returns even on a 3-year rolling basis.
• Buying routes: With Sovereign Gold Bonds and Gold ETFs unavailable, he said bars and coins were the remaining straightforward option. Although futures and options are possible, he would not recommend gold futures to ordinary retail investors because rollover costs have reached 16% in the last 3 days’ time frames before expiry.
• Rupee gold risk: Feroz warned that a 5, 7, 8% fall in Indian Rupee gold could occur if import duty normalizes as the current account deficit normalizes and the Rupee stabilizes. He said Dollar gold fell 25% from 5,600 to 4,200, while import duty and Rupee depreciation had cushioned the fall in Indian Rupee gold.