• Nifty recovery outlook: Historical analysis of 12 past conflicts indicates a 90% to 95% probability of the market regaining pre-conflict levels, projecting Nifty to reach 25,179 to 25,500 once the war ends and crude oil drops to $85–$90.
• Crude oil trajectory: Historical data across 13 to 14 sharp surges since 1973 demonstrates that major oil spikes typically see a 20% to 27% correction within a year, except during genuine post-crisis demand booms.
• Rupee stabilization strategy: Following a 24.7% rupee depreciation over the past five years and a $76 billion gold import bill, monetizing 1% to 1.5% of domestic gold holdings alongside RBI liquidity and swap tools could alleviate currency pressure.
• Sector allocation preferences: Manufacturing, capital goods, power, and roads are positioned for resilience due to strong government spending, including ₹11.2 lakh crore allocated to roads and infrastructure, ₹3.2 lakh crore to agriculture, and ₹86,000 crore to manufacturing.