1. Natural ester transformer oil market developing over 5-7 years On track - At the Q1 FY22 call, management saw the natural ester transformer oil market "slowly developing over the next 5 years to 7 years", with Q4 FY23 noting adoption would take a few years. A 99% biodegradable natural ester oil was launched in FY24 and again in FY26, with FY25 field trials underway in free breathing and 132 KV transformers.
2. Cable business to become largest business in 3-5 years Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management stated the cable business will become the largest business in the next 3-5 years, later guiding that in FY26 cable would be larger than specialty oil. In FY26 cable revenue of ₹6,220 crores overtook oil at ₹5,373 crores, but conductors remain largest at ₹12,712 crores.
3. OPGW market share target of 25-30% Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management targeted 25-30% market share in OPGW going forward. By Q3 FY22 itself, OPGW share had risen from \~10% historically to the \~25% range; no explicit confirmation of reaching 30% appears in our record.
4. No entry into EHV cables above 66 kV Missed - At the Q3 FY21 call, management stated it does not intend to enter the EHV cables segment, reiterated at Q3 FY23 as "Not at the moment" above 66 KV. By Q4 FY25 the stance was reversed, with expansion taking capability up to 220 kV and small EHV revenue expected from FY27.
5. No equity raise, focus on EPS and 20% return on capital Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management stated there was no plan to raise equity, with focus on increasing EPS and targeting 20% return on capital. A QIP of ₹1,000 crores was raised on November 30, 2023, a fresh equity raise; the FY26 capex equity portion was later clarified as internal accruals.
6. Dividend payout ratio of 25-30% Partial - At the Q3 FY23 call, management stated the dividend payout ratio "as of now, the ratio that we have is between 25% and 30%", with a bias towards reinvesting. FY26 dividend payment was ₹204.72 crores against PAT of ₹977 crores, a payout of \~21%.
7. Net working capital maintained at 35 days Partial - At the Q2 FY24 call, management stated net working capital is typically in the range of 35 days, historically maintained. Q4 FY25 saw net working capital days down by about 7-8 days, but by Q1 FY27 working capital stood at 45-50 days, fairly constant.
8. Consolidated export mix of 40-50% of revenue Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management stated a company-wide export revenue focus range of 40-50%, later revised at Q1 FY25 to a "may be more like 50-50" domestic/export mix. Consolidated export mix was 49% in FY23 and 45.2% in FY24, then fell to 32.8% in FY25, 29.8% in FY26 and 27.5% in Q1 FY27, dropping below the guided range.
9. Lubricant volume growth of 5-7% over 12-15 months Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided lubricant volume growth of 5-7% over the next 12-15 months. FY24 saw industrial volumes +4.0% and automotive flat, but FY25 delivered automotive +17.6% and industrial +10.1%, and FY26 automotive +11.1% and industrial +13.8%.
10. Transformer oil double-digit volume growth Partial - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided transformer oil double-digit growth, reiterated at Q4 FY24. FY24 volume grew +15% and FY25 +14%, but FY26 growth was +3.5% and Q1 FY27 global transformer oil volume fell -8%.
11. QIP fund utilisation of \~₹1,000 crores raised November 2023 Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management noted \~₹300 crores of the \~₹1,000 crore QIP money utilized by December end. The QIP of ₹1,000 crores was raised on November 30, 2023, and the monitoring agency report for the quarter ended March 31, 2024 confirmed no deviation in use of funds.
12. ₹1,300 crores capex through FY26 into Q1 FY27 Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management announced ₹1,300 crores capex through FY26 running into Q1 FY27 over 12-15 months, later revised to \~₹1,400 crores and then FY26 capex of ₹740 crores with FY27 at \~₹1,500 crores. FY26 capex incurred was ₹740 crores, with \~₹500-plus crores completed as of Q3 FY26.
13. FY26 oil division volume growth of 6-8% Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided FY26 oil division volume growth of about 6-8%. FY26 oil volume grew +9.0%, exceeding the guidance range; FY25 oil volume had grown +7.8%.
14. Conductor premium product mix to cross 50% of revenues Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management stated the conductor premium product mix "can cross 50% in revenues" in the medium term. Premium mix was 45.8% in FY26 and 49.3% in Q4 FY26, crossing 50% at 50.3% in Q1 FY27.
15. US data center cable approvals and RFQ participation from FY26 Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management stated APAR had gone onto the global vendor list for US data centers after supplying Microsoft satisfactorily in India, looking to participate in RFQs from FY26 onwards. In Q1 FY27 approvals from Meta, Microsoft and Google were completed with a few orders received; Q4 FY26 saw \~$15 million of cables supplied to 3 major data center projects.
16. White Oils Pearl Series to drive 400% increase in European white oil sales Pending - In the FY23 Annual Report and Q4 FY23 announcement, management stated European approval of White Oils Pearl Series "will result in a remarkable 400% increase in the sales of our white oil in the European region", also stated in the Q4 FY24 announcement. No explicit European white oil sales figure or confirmation of the 400% increase appears in our record through Q1 FY27.
17. AL-59 and alloy conductor capacity to increase \~200% Pending - In the Q4 FY24 PPT, management stated AL-59 and alloy conductor capacity would increase about 200%, including new capex in Khanvel and repurposing of machines at Odisha. No explicit confirmation of the 200% capacity increase appears in our record through Q1 FY27, though Q1 FY27 noted premium mix at 50.3% of conductor revenues.
18. Copper busbar capacity from 100% to 166% Delivered - In the Q4 FY24 PPT, management stated copper busbar capacity would go from 100% to 166% on a FY23 to FY25 comparison. The FY25 Annual Report confirmed copper busbar capacity increased by over 165% in FY25 from FY23 levels.
19. Copper CTC capacity to treble to \~20,500 MT by December 2026 On track - In the FY25 Annual Report, management stated copper CTC capacity will treble to \~20,500 MT by December 2026. Capacity had nearly doubled vs FY23 levels by FY25, CTC grew over 50% YoY in Q2 FY25, and by Q4 FY26 exports to Middle East manufacturers had started.
20. JNPT storage terminal with \~₹200 crore capex Pending - At the Q4 FY25 call, management announced \~₹200 crores for a brand-new JNPT storage terminal to cut supply chain costs and enable bulk exports, with Q1 FY26 framing bulk export as a future possibility. No completion or commissioning disclosure for the JNPT terminal appears in our record through Q1 FY27.
21. \~₹300 crore conductor capex adding \~10% capacity On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management announced \~₹300 crores of the ₹1,300 crore capex for conductors, adding \~10% capacity (\~25,000 tons) capable of premium products. Equipment was arriving through Q3-Q4 FY26 with bulk done by March 2026; Q4 FY26 utilization was 90-95% and FY27 conductor capex is \~₹400 crores.
22. ₹800 crore cable capex to double capacity to \~₹10,000 crores On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management announced \~₹800 crores of the ₹1,300 crore capex for cable to double capacity to \~₹10,000 crores, later frontloaded to ₹1,200 crores over 2 years. Cable capex of \~₹400 crores was spent in FY26 with \~₹850 crores carried into FY27, and FY26 capex incurred was ₹740 crores against FY27 plans of \~₹1,500 crores.
23. Fourth E-Beam machine commissioned in Q3 FY23 Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management stated the fourth E-beam machine would come in Q3 FY23, reiterated at Q2 FY23 alongside the CCV line. By Q1 FY23 it was at an advanced installation stage with commercial production likely in Q3 FY23; the Q4 FY24 PPT showed 4 e-Beam facilities and the Q4 FY26 PPT 5, highest in India.
24. LDC/building wires to reach ₹500 crores by FY26 Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management targeted the LDC business above ₹250 crores in FY23 with aspiration to reach ₹500 crores by FY26, with Q1 FY24 stating "clear visibility of getting to about INR500 crores in FY26". Actuals rose from \~₹175 crores in FY23 and \~₹375 crores in FY25, with the B2B channel crossing ₹500 crores in FY26 in its second year.
25. FY23 conductor volumes of 130,000-140,000 tonnes Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided FY23 conductor volumes of 130,000-140,000 tons, later guiding \~10% annual growth. FY23 volume grew +49% and FY24 +29%, but FY25 grew +7.8% and FY26 +8.6% against the 10% target, with Q1 FY27 at -6.7% YoY.
26. Cable business revenue growth of 25-30% CAGR over 3-4 years Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided cable business growth of 25-30% at then-current commodity prices over the next 3-4 years, repeatedly reiterated. Cable revenue grew from ₹1,993 crores in FY22 to ₹6,220 crores in FY26 (+25.8%), with FY24's +18% the single miss due to US destocking and Q1 FY27 at +29.5% YoY.
27. ROE of 18-20% by FY23 Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management said an 18-20% ROE run-rate by FY23 "would clearly be an aspirational, it would clearly be a target and it is quite feasible". FY23 ROE was 28.52%, and FY24-FY26 stayed at or above the 18% floor at 21.29%, 18.24% and 18.11%.
28. Cable business sustainable EBITDA margin of 10-12% Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management guided cable business sustainable EBITDA margin at "10% to 12%" for the current product mix, with near-term guidance revised down to 6.5-7.5% at Q1 FY22. Actuals were 5.3% in FY22, then 10.3% in FY23, 11.4% in FY24, 10.1% in FY25, 10.2% in FY26 and 10.6% in Q1 FY27.
29. Oil business EBITDA of \~₹5,000/KL sustainable Partial - At the Q2 FY21 call, management stated oil EBITDA of ₹4,500/KL as sustainable, upgraded at Q4 FY21 to "about Rs. 5000 odd a KL is something that's very sustainable". Actuals exceeded ₹5,000/KL in four of five years - ₹6,370, ₹4,781, ₹5,746, ₹6,145 and ₹5,943/KL through FY26 - with FY23 falling below the floor.
30. Conductor EBITDA of ₹12,000/tonne sustainable Delivered - At the Q2 FY21 call, management set a conductor EBITDA target of ₹12,000 per metric ton "on a sustainable basis", later raised through successive revisions to ₹35,000-36,000/tonne plus tailwinds by Q4 FY26. Actuals exceeded each revision: ₹17,095/tonne in FY22, ₹44,114 in FY23, ₹36,683 in FY25, ₹43,012 in FY26 and ₹53,418 in Q1 FY27.