1. Nitrile latex capacity expansion - 50,000 MT to 80,000 MT Pending - At the FY26 annual report, the company stated the new 50,000 MT p.a. (wet) Nitrile Latex capacity at Valia (2023) would be further expanded to 80,000 MT p.a. (wet) in the next phase. At Q1 FY27, the stage-two expansion was "on the cards" with a decision expected in 3-4 months; no decision or expansion has been disclosed as of Q1 FY27.
2. Expansion projects - completion around Q2/Q3 FY2022-23 Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 PPT, the company said new expansion projects were on schedule for completion around Q2/Q3 of FY2022-23; at Q2 FY23 the timeline was Q3-FY23. A 50,000MT Nitrile Latex plant at Valia and a 35,000MT multi-purpose latex plant at Taloja were commissioned during FY23, towards end of FY2022-23.
3. Taloja de-bottlenecking - 15-20% capacity increase Delivered - At the Q3 FY21 PPT, the company announced \~INR 15 Cr de-bottlenecking at the Taloja plant to increase latex manufacturing capacity by 15-20%. Full benefits of all de-bottlenecking projects were achieved from November 2021 with almost maximized capacities; Taloja capacity rose from 65,000 tonnes to 100,000 tonnes.
4. XNBR Latex for Gloves project - commissioning during Q3 FY21-22 Partial - At the Q3 FY21 PPT, the company announced the INR 100 Cr XNBR Latex for Gloves project, with detailed design completed and commissioning expected during Q3 of FY21-22 subject to permissions. A 50,000MT Nitrile Latex plant was commissioned at Valia, Gujarat during FY23, delayed by approximately one year from the original target.
5. Capex plan - ₹130-140 Cr from October 2020 to December 2021 Delivered - At the Q3 FY21 PPT, the company announced a capex plan of INR 130-140 Cr from October 1, 2020 to December 31, 2021 covering major projects. Full benefits of all de-bottlenecking projects were achieved from November 2021 with almost maximized capacities; planned capex of INR 100 Cr at Valia was completed in June 2020.
6. R&D center - ₹20-25 cr infrastructure, built this year Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management said a new R&D center would be built "this year" with board approval, spending "somewhere between INR 20 crores to INR 25 crores" on infrastructure. No disclosure of R&D center construction or spending appears in our record as of Q1 FY27.
7. FY27 volume growth - low double-digits On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided "low double-digits in volume for the whole year" for FY27, conditional on demand. In Q1 FY27, overall volumes fell 10-12% YoY entirely due to exports impacted in the MENA region, while domestic volumes were up 10%.
8. Debt-equity ratio - may go up slightly but not significantly Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management said the debt-equity ratio, then 0.3, would "maybe go up slightly in the short term, but not significantly", with CAPEX funded by debt and internal accruals. The company turned net cash positive in Q2 FY26 and Q3 FY26, net debt-to-equity improved to 0.08 by Q4 FY26, and it held about ₹30 crores net cash in Q1 FY27.
9. Nitrile latex margins - target 12-15% EBITDA; FY26 horizon Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management said the market needed to improve for Nitrile Latex to go back to "about 12-15% EBITDA margins, as we were expecting", and Q4 FY26 saw margin expansion. Yet at the Q1 FY27 call management confirmed FY26 margins "improved, they did not reach that level for sure," with Q1 FY27 above 15% only possibly "a blip".
10. Revenue from expansion - ₹1,600-1,700 cr in about 3 years from ₹1,000 cr base Partial - At the Q1 FY26 call, management reiterated guidance that revenue would reach ₹1,600-1,700 crores in about 3 years from the \~₹1,000 crore base, saying "we are on a run rate to get there. If not this year, then early next year, a quarterly run rate". FY26 revenue was ₹1,442 crores; Q1 FY27 revenue of ₹526 crores, the highest-ever quarter with 40% YoY growth, implies an annualized run rate of \~₹2,100 crores, above the target.
11. Term loan closure - within three years On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, CFO Sachin Karwa stated the \~₹125 crores term loan would be closed within the next three years. By Q4 FY26, total debt was \~₹92 crores including working capital loans against ₹160-odd crores of cash and investments, and by Q1 FY27 the company was net cash about ₹30 crores with barely any debt.
12. Nitrile latex revenue - ₹400-450 cr at 50,000 tons On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management reiterated that at 50,000 tons nitrile latex revenue would be closer to ₹400-450 crores depending on latex price. Nitrile latex was \~15-20% of the FY26 top line of ₹1,442 crores, implying ₹216-288 crores, and by Q1 FY27 had grown to maybe 8-10% of total business.
13. Customer diversification - no customer >15% of nitrile latex portfolio, >2% of company Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management set a target that no customer should be more than \~15% of the overall nitrile latex portfolio and no more than 2% from a company point of view. By Q4 FY25, no single customer accounted for more than 2-3% of total sales.
14. ApcoBuild - 15-20% minimum annual growth Partial - At the Q3 FY25 call, management said APCOBuild grows "at 15-20% minimum" every year. FY25 growth was in single digits versus the usual 18-20%+, Q1 FY26 was muted and Q3 FY26 saw increased competition, before ApcoBuild delivered double-digit growth in FY26 despite manpower issues and "continues to do reasonably well" in Q1 FY27.
15. ROCE - 13-15% target, \~25% aspiration On track - At the Q2 FY25 call, management stated a long-term goal of EBITDA margins such that ROCE is 13-15% and ROCE around 25%. With brownfield projects and Nitrile Latex improvement, the company expected to be "closer to 18-19% ROCE", with new projects underwritten at 20-25% threshold; Q1 FY26 ROCE was 18-plus percent versus historical 15-16%.
16. Export share - 40-45% of revenue On track - At the Q3 FY25 call, management expected export share to reach "somewhere between 42 to 45 percent" over the next couple of years; at Q4 FY25, above 40%, revised at Q1 FY26 to "somewhere between 40-42%" by next year and at Q2 FY26 to around 35% growing to "45% or so". Exports were 37% of revenue in Q1 FY26, 31% in Q2 FY26 and 32% of FY26 sales, with Q1 FY27 export volumes down 10-12% on MENA disruptions.
17. EBITDA margins - return to mid-teen levels Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected EBITDA margins to "return back to sort of mid-teen levels" when the market turns, reiterated at Q1 FY25 as 14%, 15%, 16%; the band was later set at 10-15%, 12-16% at Q3 FY26, and 15-16% average at Q1 FY27. FY26 EBITDA margin was 12.31%, before Q1 FY27 delivered 22.3%, the highest ever.
18. Valia synthetic latex expansion - 37,000 MT/yr, ₹550-600 cr revenue potential, phased by Q1 FY28 On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, the Board approved a ₹210 crores investment at Valia for 37,000 MT/yr synthetic latex and 14,600 MT/yr nitrile rubber & allied products with ₹550-600 crores revenue potential, coming on stream in phases by Q1 of FY27-28; the synthetic latex capacity was later firmed to Q1 FY28, then "maybe end of Q1 or so" FY28. By Q1 FY27, no more than 15-20% of the 220 crore CAPEX outflow had occurred, with major equipment deliveries due in Q3 and Q4.
19. NBR anti-dumping duty - reapplication and outcome Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said they may "think of reapplying for anti-dumping" duty on NBR; at Q2 FY25 the DGTR investigation initiated in September 2024 was expected to yield final findings in 8-12 months, with notification expected before December end at Q2 FY26. DGTR issued "overall positive" final findings but recommended zero duty for one manufacturer covering \~30-35% of the Indian market; the Finance Ministry never notified the duties, and by Q1 FY27 the company had no anti-dumping protection.
20. Taloja synthetic latex expansion - full utilization within one to two years Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected the Taloja expansion to be fully utilized "in the next one to two years"; at Q1 FY25, completely utilized by end of FY26. Utilization reached \~85% in Q1 FY26 and \~80% in Q2 FY26, but by Q4 FY26 NBR was at 100% and nitrile latex almost full, while synthetic latex still had leeway with new capacity being built.
21. Nitrile Latex capacity utilization - 100% within two years of project Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expressed confidence of getting to 100% capacity utilization "very quickly across the board" when the market turns; at Q4 FY25, management noted the original plan was 100% within two years of the project, with the run rate then \~80%, "a little bit short". Utilization reached almost full 100% by Q4 FY26, around one year after the original two-year window ending roughly Q4 FY25.