1. Japan business reflected in subsequent quarters of FY27 On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said the newly initiated Japan business would be reflected in subsequent quarters of the current fiscal year. Japan business has been initiated after more than a decade, with sales expected in subsequent quarters.
2. ADD final determination around September 2026 Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management stated the ADD final determination is expected around September 2026. No read yet; the September 2026 horizon has not been reached.
3. UK FTA completed by end of 2025 Partial - At the Q1 FY26 call, management expected the UK free trade agreement to be completed "by the end of this year" (2025). The UK FTA came into effect on July 15, 2026, roughly seven months after the stated deadline.
4. Non-U.S. sales more than 50% of total sales Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management set a goal of increasing non-U.S. sales to "more than 50%" of total sales. Non-U.S. share was 45% in Q1 FY26, 56% in Q2 FY26, nearly 51% in 9M FY26, and reached almost 52% of the FY26 sales mix, the largest contributor.
5. EU sales growth of at least 30-50% in first year of approval On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management committed to growing EU sales "at least minimum 30% to 50% in the first 1 year of approval", quantified as "around 2,500 metric tons" for the EU alone. EU approval came in June 2025; EU (ex-UK) sales grew 22% in Q1 FY26, 18% in Q2 FY26, 22% in Q3 FY26, and 19% for FY26, below target but growing.
6. UK sales to at least 10% of mix in first year post-FTA On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management said once the UK FTA is fully implemented, UK sales can be taken to "at least minimum 10%" of the sales mix in the first year. The FTA came into effect on July 15, 2026; UK was 5.1% of FY25 sales, almost 6% of Q1 FY26 sales, and EU plus UK together contributed 25% in Q1 FY27.
7. FY28-FY29 production of 14,000-15,000 MT Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management flagged a next-round volume ambition of 14,000-15,000 metric tons in FY28-FY29 while calling it "too premature to comment"; the automated August 2026 transcript targeted 14,000-15,000 MT, subject to no new tariff issues. No read yet; the FY28-FY29 horizon has not been reached.
8. FY27 volumes of \~12,000 MT On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management reiterated FY27 volume guidance of around 12,000 metric tons, correcting the \~14,000 MT guided at the Q4 FY26 call to \~12,000 MT. Q1 FY27 volumes were 2,624 MT, below the "at least 3,000-plus metric tons" quarterly run rate management said was needed.
9. FY27 capacity utilization of at least 50% On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided utilization up "by another 10%, 15%" to at least 50% by FY27, later revising this at the Q1 FY27 call to consistently over 35% to 40% through FY27. Q1 FY27 capacity utilization was 38%, within the revised range but below the original 50% target.
10. Russia and Australia sales by Q4 FY26 or Q1 FY27 Missed - At the Q3 FY26 call, management committed to starting sales in Russia and Australia "by the end of this financial year... if not, or at least early April". Q4 FY26 noted facilities getting approved for newer markets like Russia; by Q1 FY27, Russia had not started and Australia remained at the discussion stage pending customer audits.
11. Revenue of \~₹1,200-plus crore over next 2 years On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided revenue of "around approximately around INR1,200-plus crores over the next 2 years". FY26 revenue was ₹931 crore and Q1 FY27 revenue was ₹257 crore; the 2-year horizon extends to FY28.
12. Borrowings to come down significantly in subsequent quarters Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management said borrowings will come down significantly in subsequent quarters using positive cash flows. Total borrowings fell from ₹167 crore in March 2022 to ₹41 crore by September 2025, then to ₹6 crore at FY26 end with net debt to equity at negative 0.02x.
13. India-EU FTA concluded by end of 2025 Pending - At the Q2 FY26 call, management said the India-EU FTA is likely to be concluded "very soon, most likely by the end of this year" (2025), later revised to "sometime in FY27", then end of calendar 2026, and by "December or early January" at the Q1 FY27 call. The EU FTA had not taken effect as of Q1 FY27.
14. RTE volumes of 2,000-2,500 MT in FY27, \~1,000 MT in FY26 On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management reiterated 2,000-2,500 MT of RTE volumes in FY27, with around 1,000 MT max for FY26, and at the Q1 FY27 call guided RTE to at least 18-20% of sales volumes in FY27. FY26 RTE share was 12% of revenue and Q1 FY27 RTE contribution was 16% of volume with 16% utilization.
15. Australia at least 5% of business in first year, \~10% over time Pending - At the Q2 FY26 call, management said Australia can be at least 5% of overall business in the first year and grown to almost 10% "over a period of time". Australia remained at the discussion stage pending customer audits as of Q1 FY27, with no Australia sales disclosed in our record.
16. 10-12% EBITDA margin doable On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management said a 10% to 12% EBITDA margin is "doable for sure" as realizations grow and value-added output increases. FY26 EBITDA margin was 7.7%, while Q1 FY27 EBITDA margin reached 12.7%.
17. FY26 capacity utilization of 50% minimum over next 1 year Missed - At the Q2 FY26 call, management aimed to take capacity utilization up to 50% minimum over the next 1 year, later guiding FY26 full-year utilization "around 33%, 35%" at the Q3 FY26 call. FY26 capacity utilization came in at \~30%, well short of the 50% minimum.
18. FY26 volumes of \~12,000 MT Missed - At the Q3 FY25 call, management guided FY26 volumes of "maybe around 12,000" tons, reiterated as "12,000 metric tons minimum for FY26" at the Q4 FY25 call; Q2 FY26 raised the aim to \~14,000-15,000 MT. FY26 shrimp sales volumes were 10,286 MT, short of the 12,000 MT minimum.
19. China sales not beyond 5-8% Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management was confident China sales would not go beyond "5% to 8% at the most". China was around 3% of Q3 FY23 sales and around 5% of FY23 exports; by Q2 FY25 it contributed less than \~10% annually, and Q1 FY26 other markets including China were 7% of the mix.
20. CVD rate reduction from 4.36% to much lower Pending - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected CVD on Indian shrimp to reduce "from 4.36% to much lower" once government workings were available, committing at the Q2 FY25 call to submit justification data during the review, with the review expected to conclude by March-April 2026. The CVD rate remained at 5.77% as of Q3 FY26; at the Q1 FY27 call an announcement was expected around December 2026 with a possible reduction from 5.77%.
21. CVD final determination in October-November 2024 Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected the India CVD rate to be finalized "by around October or November 2024", with the Q2 FY25 call expecting the ITC determination "mostly by the end of this month" or early December. The finalized India CVD rate was 5.77%, with collection resuming from December 27, 2024 at 5.77%.
22. FY25 revenue growth back to FY23 levels Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, management was "looking positive to be having a growth getting back to our FY23" on both volumes and revenue. FY25 net revenue was ₹813.6 crore, up about 1% from ₹804.1 crore in FY24 but well below FY23's ₹1,070.3 crore.
23. FY25 sales volumes of minimum 3,000-3,500 MT Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided FY25 sales volumes of "a minimum of 3,000 - 3,500 metric tons", revised at the Q3 FY25 call to "mostly flattish" volumes versus the prior year. FY25 volumes came in at 10,534 MT across the quarters, flattish versus FY24's 10,949 MT.
24. US subsidiary benefits from FY25 onwards Pending - At the Q3 FY24 call, management expected the wholly owned US subsidiary to start delivering benefits "from FY25 onwards", with setup to finish "hopefully by this month-end" in August 2024 at the Q1 FY25 call. Management declined to commit to margin improvement at that time, and our record holds no disclosure of the subsidiary being operational or delivering benefits.
25. FY24 realization of ₹720-750 per kg Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management expected realization "anywhere between Rs 720 to Rs 750" per kg if higher volumes of value-added/RTE products were achieved. FY24 average realization was ₹695 per kg, with quarterly realizations of ₹697/kg in Q1 FY24, ₹738/kg in Q2 FY24, and ₹663/kg in Q3 and Q4 FY24.
26. EU and UK share of sales to improve in FY24 Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management expected the share of EU and UK markets in total sales "to be improving further in the current fiscal, that is FY24". EU share of the sales mix rose to 30% in FY24 from 19% in FY23, with EU sales growing 31% YoY.
27. New markets - Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Middle East, South Africa in FY24 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management expected new markets including Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Middle East, and South Africa re-engagement to start generating business in FY24, with shipments before September end. South Korea started only at Q3 FY25, "as we speak", and no Saudi Arabia, Middle East, or South Africa business in FY24 is disclosed in our record.
28. FY24 RTE volume of 3,000-5,000 MT Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management expected ready-to-eat volume of "at least anywhere between 3,000 to 5,000 metric tons" in FY24, versus \~2,500 MT in FY23. RTE share of sales dropped to 16% in FY24 from 22% in FY23, putting RTE volumes at approximately 1,752 MT of the 10,949 MT total.
29. Incremental revenue of minimum ₹200 crore in first year from additional RTE capacity Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided incremental revenue of minimum ₹200 crore on export sales alone in the first year from utilizing 50% of the additional 5,000 MT RTE capacity. FY24 total revenue was ₹804.1 crore, down 25% YoY, with RTE share falling to 16% and no incremental RTE revenue disclosed in our record.
30. EBITDA margins back to 11-12% by middle of FY24 Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided EBITDA margins to return to 11-12% by the middle of FY24. FY24 EBITDA margin was 5.5%, with quarterly margins of 6% in Q1 FY24, 8.1% in Q2 FY24, 6.0% in Q3 FY24 and 1.7% in Q4 FY24, never reaching the target range.
31. RTE utilization of 50-60% minimum in first 6 months of FY24, 75% for FY24 Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided RTE utilization at 50-60% minimum in the first 6 months of FY24, then pushed to 75% on RTE alone for FY24. RTE utilization fell in FY24 due to a drop in supermarket/retail sales, with RTE share of sales down to 16% and overall utilization at 33%.
32. Working capital and net debt to improve by end of FY23 Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management said "we are hopeful that these metrics shall improve further by the end of the current fiscal year". Working capital days improved to \~94 as of March 2023 from \~123 in FY22, and gross debt fell by ₹76 crore in FY23 to ₹91 crore.
33. RTE share of total sales at minimum 30% Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management committed that with the new 5,000 MT RTE line, ready-to-eat share of total sales should be "a minimum of 30% and plus". RTE share was 22% in FY23, then declined - 16% in FY24, 10% in FY25, 12% of FY26 revenue, and 16% of volume in Q1 FY27.
34. EU RTE regulatory certification by end of Q2 or early Q3 FY23 Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management expected EU RTE regulatory certification "mostly by the Q3 of the current financial year", with the timeline pushed repeatedly through FY24 and FY25. EU approval for the second facility was received in June 2025, resolving the major EU entry barrier during Q2 FY26.
35. FY23 production/sales volume of 18,000-20,000 MT Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management reiterated a target of producing \~18,000-20,000 metric tons for FY23, reduced to \~14,000 MT export volume guidance at the Q2 FY23 call. FY23 shrimp sales volume was 13,044 MT, up 8% YoY and "lower than our initial expectation".
36. Removal of one specific facility from USFDA alert Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management said they were "in the process of getting our one specific facility being removed out of that [USFDA antibiotic] alert". The flagged consignment was retested with no problems, and by Q1 FY22 there had been no shipments on hold since March 2021.
37. Ready-to-eat capacity utilization of 60-70% in FY22 Missed - At the Q4 FY21 call, management expected 60-70% utilization, focused on 60%, of the Ready-to-Eat capacity in FY22, subject to worker availability. FY22 RTE volumes were 2,364 MT against 5,000 MT capacity, roughly 47% utilization, with Q4 FY22 production of more than 2,500 MT, around 50%.
38. FY23 capacity utilization of 70% of total capacity Missed - At the Q4 FY21 call, management guided 70% capacity utilization for FY23, later revised to 60-75% of the overall 34,000 MT by end of FY23 and to optimum 70-75% by FY24-FY25. FY23 volumes were 13,044 MT with 9M FY23 utilization of \~47% and FY24 utilization of 32%.
39. FY22 capacity utilization of minimum 50% of \~29,000 MT Missed - At the Q4 FY21 call, management aimed to utilize at least 50% of total capacity of 29,000-odd MT, roughly 14,000-15,000 MT, in FY22, reiterated at Q1 FY22 and Q2 FY22. FY22 volumes were 12,067 MT with utilization of 41%.
40. Middle East and Russian markets as FY22 focus Missed - At the Q3 FY21 call, management said they would focus on Middle East and Russian markets "for the next financial year" (FY22). Middle East opportunities remained open discussions through FY22, and new market plans kept sliding - South Korea starting at Q3 FY25 and Russia still not started as of Q1 FY27.
41. Exit of farming operations and disposal of farming assets Delivered - At the Q3 FY21 call, management stated the company is "in the process of almost exiting out of the farming operations" and will "basically dispose them off", retaining only the company-owned farm of almost 110-120 acres. Farming consolidation culminated by Q4 FY21 with about 120 acres retained; the FY22 annual report confirms the exit, with almost 1,500 acres exited between 2021 and 2023.
42. Ready-to-eat capacity expansion from 5,000 MT to 10,000 MT Delivered - At the Q1 FY21 call, management discussed a planned additional 5,000 MT ready-to-eat line, with the timeline pushed repeatedly - to end of FY22, July-August of FY23, end of Q2 FY23, December 2022, and full 10,000 MT from the beginning of FY24. The line was commissioned at the end of May 2023 with commercial production from June 2023, taking total RTE capacity to 10,000 MT.
43. Ready-to-eat capacity to be fully utilized for remaining nine months of FY21 Partial - At the Q1 FY21 call, management stated the 5,000 MT annual ready-to-eat capacity would be utilized fully, proportionately, for the remaining nine months of FY21, with the order book already in place. By Q2, supply issues prevented maximum utilization despite a full RTE order book; RTE reached almost 22% of revenue in Q3 FY21, but FY21 RTE tonnage was only 1,705 MT.
44. PAT margin of normal 7-8%, \~9-10% from own facility Missed - At the Q1 FY21 call, management reiterated normal PAT margins of \~7-8%, with "looking at 2% higher margin levels" (\~9-10%) once operating from its own facility, confident margins would improve "in the next few quarters". FY21 PAT margin was 5.7% and margins stayed well below through FY26 - 4.4% FY22, 3.4% FY23, 1.8% FY24, 0.5% FY25, 4.1% FY26 - only reaching 8.4% in Q1 FY27.
45. Capacity plan - minimum 50% of new 20,000 MT in year 1, 75-80% of total 29,000 MT from year 2 Missed - At the Q1 FY21 call, management reiterated the plan of minimum 50% utilization of the new 20,000 MT capacity in year 1 plus 80-85% of older capacity, and 75-80% of the total 29,000 MT from year 2, with the target later reset through FY22 and FY23. Utilization peaked at 58% in Q1 FY22, was 41% in FY22, and fell to 30-38% across FY24 to Q1 FY27.
46. FY21 volumes to exceed last year's \~12,200 MT Missed - At the Q1 FY21 call, on FY21 volumes versus last year's \~12,200 MT, management said "we should be looking at doing that hopefully", hedged heavily with pandemic caveats. FY21 sales volume was 11,701 MT, down 4% YoY, about 96% of pre-COVID volumes.
47. Phase-2 Ongole hatchery online in FY21 Partial - At the Q1 FY21 call, management said phase-2 of the Ongole hatchery was under construction and "hopeful that this will come online in this fiscal", reiterated through Q3 FY21. Construction was completed by Q4 FY21, but as of Q1 FY22 the hatchery was still awaiting regulatory approvals and audits to commence commercial operations, with no later disclosure of commercial commencement in our record.