1. FY27 India volume growth - double-digit Partial - At the Q1 FY26 call, management committed on India truck and PCR: "we are putting in all efforts to try and see that we achieve a double-digit growth. And you'll see that in Q2". Q2 FY26 India volume growth was 4%, missing the double-digit target, but Q3 FY26 was mid-teens, Q4 high teens, and Q1 FY27 replacement 13%, OEM 10%, exports 15%.
2. PCR market share - 20% to early 20s Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management set an aspiration to get passenger car market share to "somewhere in the 20%, to early 20%" over "the next couple of years". PCR replacement share was around 20% in Q2 FY26, close to 20% in Q3 FY26, and 21% plus by Q1 FY27.
3. TBR market share - regain \~30% Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management set an aspiration to get back to \~30% share in truck (TBR) over "the next couple of years". TBR replacement share was around 29% in Q2 FY26, close to 30% in Q3 FY26, and upwards of 30% by Q1 FY27, with the earlier share loss regained.
4. Exports - high single-digit growth in FY26 Partial - At the Q2 FY26 call, management said "overall for the year, yes, we would push towards the high single digit" for full-year exports growth. Exports grew double digits in Q2 FY26 and just short of 20% in Q3 FY26, but Q4 volumes grew only mid-single digit, and full-year FY26 export growth was not explicitly disclosed.
5. FY27 Europe EBITDA - high teens On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided that on a full-year basis in Europe, with the manufacturing footprint change, they "would look to deliver high teens EBITDA". Q1 FY27 Europe EBITDA margin was 8.9%, with benefits from the Enschede restructuring expected from H2 FY27.
6. AP plant expansion - ₹5,800 crore, capacity on stream by H2 FY29 On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, the Board approved ₹5,800 crore capex for the AP plant to expand PCR and TBR capacities over FY27-FY29, with all capacity on stream in H2 FY29 and full benefit in FY30. By Q1 FY27 the expansion was in early execution, with India capacity to start coming on stream towards the end of this year and ramp up through FY28.
7. FY27 capex - ₹3,000-3,500 crore On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided FY27 consolidated capex closer to ₹3,000 crore, revised at Q4 FY26 to ₹3,500 crore, nearly 80% towards growth. Q1 FY27 India capex was ₹500 crore and consolidated ₹650 crore, with India capex to go further up in Q2 and Q3.
8. FY26 India volume growth - double-digit, revised to high single-digit Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected Q1 FY26 with "hopefully... double digit growth", revised at Q1 FY26 to "maybe a high single-digit would be a more realistic estimate" for FY26. India volume growth was flattish in Q1, mid-single digits in Q2, mid-teens in Q3 and high teens in Q4, with FY26 standalone revenue up 9.0%.
9. FY26 capex - ₹1,500 crore Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided FY26 capex at ₹1,500 crore, split almost equally between growth and normal capex, reiterated through Q1, Q2 and Q3 FY26. FY26 capex was ₹14 Bn, i.e. ₹1,400 crore, slightly below the ₹1,500 crore plan.
10. Enschede restructuring - payback \~2 years, benefits from H2 FY27 On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management indicated total cash costs of around €55m and a payback period of about 2 years, with benefits expected to flow through in H2 FY27. Exceptional items of ₹370 crore, €17m and a €43m non-cash write-off were booked through FY26; Q1 FY27 Europe EBITDA margin was 8.9%, or \~11% excluding overlaps, with benefits not yet realised.
11. Enschede plant closure - production end by June 2026 Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management announced the intended closure of Enschede production in 2026, with the last day confirmed as June 30th at Q4 FY26. The Enschede plant stopped production as planned in June 2026, after a Works Council settlement in Q2 FY26 and a €43m non-cash write-off, with the Netherlands transition completing September-October 2026.
12. PCR capacity expansion - 4,000 tyres/day Hungary, 4,000 tyres/day AP On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided FY26 capex of ₹1,500 crore including 4,000 tyres/day PCR expansions in Hungary and at the AP plant, with Hungary capacity available by end of the current year. The Hungary expansion was underway through FY26, and by Q1 FY27 Hungary was to go from \~17,000 to 21,000 car tyres, producing and ramping up in H2 FY27, with no disclosure it was available by end-2025 as originally guided.
13. FY25 capex - ₹1,000 crore Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 capex "in the region of ₹1,000 crores", reiterated in Q1 and Q2 FY25. At Q3 FY25 the CFO said it was "highly unlikely that we'll spend ₹500 crores in the last quarter", endorsing \~₹700-800 crore; FY25 capex came in at ₹8 Bn, below guidance.
14. FY24 capex - ₹1,100 crore Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided FY24 capex of ₹1,100 crore, of which ₹680 crore for India Operations, reiterated in Q1 and Q2 FY24. At Q3 FY24 the CFO said capex "may end up lower by 100 crore, 150 crore"; actual FY24 cash spend was \~₹700 crore as capex was curtailed.
15. FY24 India volume growth - high-single to double-digit Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided India volume growth of "high-single-digits to a double-digits, which would be largely volume-led" in FY24. India volumes were down about 5% in Q1, up 5% in Q2, mid-single digits in Q3 and 4% in Q4, leaving full-year growth approximately flat to low single digits.
16. Net debt/EBITDA - below 2x Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, the CFO reiterated the intention to keep net debt/EBITDA below 2x, part of the Vision '26 leverage framework with a 2x upper cap. Net debt/EBITDA stayed below 2x every quarter from 1.9x in Q1 FY23 to 0.4x in Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27.
17. Hungary plant - 90-95% utilisation in FY23 Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management targeted the Hungary plant to reach 90-95% capacity utilisation "in this year" (FY23), up from 80-85%. After debottlenecking to close to 16,000 tyres/day, Hungary PCR utilisation was just above 85% by Q4 FY23, below the target, though Europe utilisation reached 93% by Q4 FY26.
18. FY23 Europe revenue - double-digit growth Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management said they expected double-digit growth for FY23 from a combination of volume and price increases. Europe revenue grew 32% YoY in Q1 (EUR 151m), 31% in Q2 (EUR 181m), 7% in Q3 (EUR 180m) and 5% in Q4 (EUR 177m), implying full-year revenue of \~EUR 689m, roughly 17% above the prior year - double-digit growth.
19. FY23 India revenue growth - about 20% Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, the CFO reiterated full-year FY23 India growth of "about close to 20%", with India Operations guided at Q2 FY23 to end FY23 with about 20% top-line growth. India revenue growth decelerated from 38% YoY in Q1 to 17% in Q2, 12% in Q3 and 9.5% in Q4, falling well short of the \~20% target.
20. Capex light model - no major growth capex for 2-3 years Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management said no major capex in the next 3 to 4 years, committing at Q4 FY23 to a "capex light model" for "the next at least two years". Capex stayed light through FY25 - below ₹800 crore in FY23, \~₹700 crore in FY24, ₹8 Bn in FY25 - before growth capex resumed in FY26 at ₹14 Bn and the ₹5,800 crore AP expansion was approved.
21. India mid-teens EBITDA margin - medium-term target Partial - At the Q2 FY22 call, management continued to target mid-teens EBITDA margins for India Operations "in line with our vision on a medium-term basis", reiterated through FY23 and as "in excess of 15%" at Q2 FY24. India EBITDA margin reached 15.9% in Q4 FY23 and 19%+ in Q2 FY24, but fell to 11.1% by Q3 FY25 and was 12.0% in Q1 FY27, not consistently held.
22. UHP/UUHP share in Europe - well above 40% by FY2026 Delivered - At the Q2 FY22 call, management expected the UHP/UUHP share of European passenger car sales mix, then \~39%, to increase to "well above 40% by FY 2026". The mix crossed 45% in Q3 FY24, reached 47% by Q4 FY24, and stood at 52% in Q3 FY26 and 50% in Q4 FY26, well above the target.
23. Vision 2026 - $5 billion revenue, 15%+ EBITDA margin, <2x net debt/EBITDA, 12-15% ROCE Partial - At the Q2 FY22 call, management reiterated the Vision 2026 targets, with the $5 billion revenue target by FY26 reiterated at Q4 FY23. By FY24, EBITDA margin of 17.5%, net debt/EBITDA of 0.6x and ROCE of 16% exceeded targets "well ahead of the defined timeline of 2026", but FY26 revenue of ₹28,471 crore was approximately $3.4-3.5 billion, well short of $5 billion.
24. ROCE - double-digit, then 12-15% Vision 2026, then 15% Partial - At the Q2 FY21 call, management committed to get ROCE to double digits "in the next two to three years... as soon as possible", later guided above 12% and to the 12-15% Vision '26 range, raised at Q2 FY24 with 15% described as sacrosanct. ROCE reached 16% in FY24, but fell to 10.39% in FY25, recovered to 13.4% in FY26 and 13.3% TTM in Q1 FY27, below the raised 15% target.
25. Europe EBITDA margin - early-teen target, then 15%+ sustainable Partial - At the Q2 FY21 call, management targeted European Operations to return to at least early-teen EBITDA margins, with above 15% stated at Q1 FY22 as sustainable and "will only expand from here on", later raised to a 16-17% steady-state target. Europe EBITDA margin ran at 15-20% through FY22-FY24, but fell to 10.8% in Q1 FY26 and 8.9% in Q1 FY27 amid the Enschede transition, with the high-teens goal not yet reached.
26. Dutch plant specialisation - 528 redundancies, €40-50m savings, payback \~2 years Delivered - At the Q1 FY21 call, management committed to 528 redundancies in the Dutch operation in the last quarter of FY21, with manpower savings of €40-50m and payback in about 2 years, later revised to savings slightly below €40m and about €30m in employee cost saving. Specialisation completed around end of March 2022 with benefits flowing from the June quarter, and Europe FY22 EBITDA reached a record €103m at a 17.5% margin.
27. AP plant commercial production - truck tyres from September 2020, ramp-up by FY22 Partial - At the Q1 FY21 call, management expected commercial production of truck tyres at the AP plant to start in September 2020, with capex and ramp-up completed in FY2022 and capacity of 15,000 car tyres/day and 3,000 truck tyres/day by end of FY22. By Q3 FY21 AP was producing 4,000 PCR and close to 1,200 TBR per day, and FY22 capex outflow was ₹1,846 crore, but the record holds no confirmation the full stated capacity was online by end-FY22.