1. 30-35% revenue CAGR - next 3 years (FY27-FY29) Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided 30-35% revenue CAGR for the next 3 years. FY27 has just begun and no FY27 revenue data is in our record as of 14 July 2026.
2. Segment EBITDA margins for FY27 - Pump 12-14%, Wholesale 7-9%, Retail 13-15% Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided EBITDA margin ranges by segment for FY27: Pump 12-14%, wholesale distribution plus project distribution 7-9%, retail rooftop and C&I 13-15%. FY27 has not yet concluded; FY26 segment margins were near or above the guided ranges but the FY27 outcome is not yet available.
3. 50% of profits reinvested in APS, 50% in high-growth businesses Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided that 50% of profits will be reinvested in APS and the other 50% in businesses that can grow multiple-fold in three years. FY26 PAT was ₹57.87 cr but no disclosure on profit allocation or reinvestment split is in our record.
4. No further module capacity expansion for 2-3 years (through \~FY29) On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided that APS does not plan further expansion in module manufacturing capacity for the next 2-3 years, targeting 2-2.5% of India's market. The remaining 400 MW expansion is expected to bring total capacity to 1.2 GW by August 2026 and no further expansion announcements are in our record.
5. BESS entry - 1 GWh assembly line; concrete timeline within a quarter (by \~June 2026) Missed - At the Q4 FY26 call, management stated APS is evaluating BESS and plans to start with a 1 GWh assembly line, with "more concrete news with the timeline" expected within a quarter. As of 14 July 2026, that quarter has elapsed and no BESS timeline or commissioning announcement is in our record.
6. 30% minimum increase in net assets per year - next 3 years (through FY29) On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided a minimum 30% increase in net assets per year for the next three years. FY26 net worth was ₹164.28 cr against FY25 net worth of ₹86.96 cr, an increase of \~89%, substantially exceeding the 30% minimum.
7. Solar pump order book of \~₹300 cr - execution over 12-15 months Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided the pump segment order book was around ₹300 cr with an execution timeline of 12-15 months and stated they could execute up to ₹350 cr of pump orders for FY26. FY26 solar pump segment turnover was ₹305.99 cr, exceeding the earlier ₹250 cr guidance and substantially meeting the execution target.
8. Debt-free by FY27-28 On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided they plan to be most of the debt free by FY27-FY28 after the large CapEx phase. As of Q4 FY26, the company maintains an almost debt-free position with net debt-to-equity of 0.05 as of September 2025 and the solar cell project - the main debt driver - was cancelled.
9. Fundraising - ₹18 cr equity + ₹25-30 cr bank loan Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided plans to raise funds through equity of ₹18 cr and a bank loan of ₹25-30 cr in final stages of approval. The proposed preferential issue was withdrawn and cancelled due to unfavourable stock market sentiment, but debt facilities were secured and enhanced with CRISIL rating total bank loan facilities at ₹128 cr.
10. FY26 CapEx of ₹150 cr; FY26-27 CapEx of ₹850 cr (total panel + cell) Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided FY26 CapEx of ₹150 cr and FY26-27 CapEx of another ₹850 cr including panel and cell. At Q4 FY26, management abandoned the solar cell project that underpinned the ₹850 cr figure, stating no investment in solar cells for at least 24 months.
11. FY27 standalone turnover of ₹1,200-1,300 cr Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided FY27 APS standalone turnover of 1,200 to 1,300 cr. At Q4 FY26, management guided 30-35% revenue growth for FY27 which on an FY26 base of \~₹708 cr implies FY27 revenue of \~₹920-956 cr, effectively abandoning the earlier ₹1,200-1,300 cr target.
12. FY26 PAT margin of 9-10% Partial - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided PAT margin of about 9-10% for FY26. FY26 PAT margin was 8.16% with quarterly margins of 9.59% in Q1 FY26, 9.44% in Q2 FY26, and 7.21% in Q4 FY26, falling below the guided range for the full year.
13. FY26 revenue target of ₹750-800 cr Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided total revenue of 750 to 800 crores by the end of this FY26. FY26 revenue was ₹707.96 cr, representing growth of 60.70% but falling short of the explicit target.
14. Solar cell manufacturing - 1 GW phase operational in 18-24 months (by \~FY27) Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided the first phase of 1 GW solar cell manufacturing would generate revenue of up to ₹800 cr and EBITDA of 20-30% with commercial production by end of FY27, later guided as up and running after June 2027. At Q4 FY26, management explicitly stated APS is not planning to invest in solar cell manufacturing for at least the next 24 months and the plan was abandoned.
15. 250 MW new plant - operational by Q4 FY25 or Q1 FY26 Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management stated a new 250 MW TOPCon plant was planned to be operational by Q4 FY25 or Q1 FY26. The stated deadline has passed and the SQL snapshot through Q4 FY26 shows no evidence of a distinct 250 MW plant commissioning.
16. 800 MW TOPCon module expansion - second 400 MW operational by Q1 FY27 On track - At the Q3 FY25 call, management guided the second 400 MW phase would start within 12 months, with subsequent revisions shifting the timeline to April 2026, then Q1 FY27, and finally August 2026. As of the Q4 FY26 call, the remaining 400 MW expansion was progressing and expected to become operational by August 2026, a deadline not yet reached.
17. 800 MW TOPCon module expansion - first 400 MW operational by Q1/Q2 FY26 Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management committed to expanding by adding an 800 MW line with the first 400 MW phase at a capex of \~₹40 cr, initially guided to be up and running by 30 June 2025 and later revised to August 2025 and then early October 2025. The 400 MW TOPCon line was commissioned on 28 October 2025 at Sabarkantha, Gujarat, bringing total module capacity to 800 MW.
18. Positive cash flow by FY26 Pending - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided that cash flow would be positive by FY26. The FY26 horizon has been reached but no cash flow statement data is available in our record to confirm or refute positive cash flow.
19. Solar pump segment - 30-35% of revenue in FY25, 40-45% in FY26 Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided solar pumps would contribute 30-35% of top-line in FY25 and 40-45% in FY26, later revised to 35-40% for FY26 at Q2 FY26. FY26 pump revenue was ₹305.99 cr out of ₹707.96 cr total revenue, or \~43.2%, hitting the revised 35-40% target.
20. EBITDA margin range of 13-15% - sustained Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided that maximum EBITDA margin would be in the range of 13-15%, calling 18-20% very optimistic, with restatements at 11-14% and 12-14% in subsequent quarters. FY25 EBITDA margin was 13.33% and FY26 EBITDA margin was 13.49%, with all reported quarters falling within or very close to the 13-15% band.
21. 75% CAGR revenue growth - FY25-FY26 Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided a 75% CAGR for FY25-FY26, calling it a conservative target and reiterating it through Q1 FY26. FY25 revenue was ₹438.88 cr and FY26 revenue was ₹707.96 cr, yielding a CAGR of approximately 61.3%, below the 75% target.