Arvind Fashions Ltd Guidance Report - SOIC x StockScans Report

as of Sep 2026

  1. FY27 direct channel share - grow by 100-200 bps On track - At the Q1 FY27 PPT, management set the FY27 objective of growing the share of direct channels (retail + online B2C) by 100-200 bps. In Q1 FY27, D2C/direct channels reached 62% of sales, up 380 bps YoY.
  2. Each brand to have own dotcom and app - live in FY27 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management expected each brand to have its own dotcom and app live "this fiscal year" (FY27). In Q1 FY27, Flying Machine's dotcom and app launch was on track for H2 FY27; the record holds no disclosure of other brands' launches.
  3. FY27 LTL growth - 7%-8% On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management expected FY27 like-to-like growth of about 7%-8%, with the rest of \~15% growth coming from expansion and upsizing. Q1 FY27 LTL came in at 11.6%.
  4. FY27 store expansion - \~1.5 lakh net sq ft On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management expected to add about 1.5 lakh net square feet of retail space in FY27, reiterated at the Q1 FY27 call with about 5% closing rate. Q1 FY27 saw 23 EBOs added and net sq ft addition of \~20K.
  5. FY27 EBITDA margin - 30-40 bps expansion On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided to 30-40 bps of EBITDA margin expansion in FY27, saying it was "reasonably confident"; this was sustained at the Q1 FY27 call. Q1 FY27 EBITDA margin improved 44 bps YoY.
  6. FY27 revenue growth - mid-double-digit (\~15%) On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, CEO Amisha Jain guided FY27 revenue growth of "mid double-digit" (\~15%), reaffirmed at the Q1 FY27 call as 12%-15% "this year". Q1 FY27 revenue grew 15.5%, with \~15% YTD performance cited as giving confidence.
  7. USPA growth - mid-double digits over 3-4 years On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, asked whether USPA can grow 13-14% CAGR over the next 3-4 years, management said "We expect our brands to grow at mid-double digits". Q4 FY26 was USPA's highest-ever growth quarter, and in Q1 FY27 USPA direct channels grew \~40%.
  8. FY26 direct channel share - grow by 100-200 bps Delivered - At the Q4 FY26 PPT, the FY26 objective was to grow the share of direct channels (retail + online B2C) by 100-200 bps. By Q4 FY26 direct channels were 56% of sales, up 300 bps YoY, and 56% of FY26 revenue.
  9. FY26 store openings - \~150 stores gross Partial - At the Q4 FY26 PPT, the FY26 objective was gross opening of \~150 stores, largely through the FOFO route. H1 FY26 added 24 stores and closed 16, Q4 added 50 EBOs, and FY26 net sq ft addition was \~1.43 lakh; the record holds no explicit full-year gross store count.
  10. FY26 revenue growth - 12-15% aspiration Delivered - At the Q4 FY26 PPT, management's FY26 objective was an aspiration to grow revenues at 12-15% with acceleration in adjacent categories growth. FY26 revenue grew 14%.
  11. Medium-term direct channel share - two-thirds of business On track - In the FY25 Annual Report, management set a medium-term goal of deriving two-thirds of business from direct channels (retail and direct-to-consumer), noting progress toward it. Direct channels stood at nearly 63% of sales in Q3 FY26, 56% in Q4 FY26, and 62% in Q1 FY27.
  12. Unlimited sale - completion by early Sept'21 Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management said the 'Unlimited' transaction would get completed by early Sept'21. In Q2 FY22 the strategic sale of 'Unlimited' retail business assets to V-Mart Retail Ltd. was successfully completed.
  13. Offer proceeds utilisation - debt repayment and ALBL investment Delivered - The offer document set out objects of prepayment/repayment of borrowings (₹50 cr), investment in ALBL for repayment of borrowings (₹250 cr) and general corporate purposes (₹96.79 cr), revised to ₹25 cr, ₹125 cr and ₹48.03 cr. Monitoring agency comments were "NIL" and revised costs "Not Applicable" as of 3rd June 2021, 3rd February 2021 and 11th February 2022.
  14. FY22 working capital - significantly improved inventory turns Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management set an FY22 target of efficient working capital management with significantly improved inventory turns. FY22 scorekeeping recorded 4x inventory turns based on H2 revenues, the highest in recent history, with Q4 FY22 also at 4x.
  15. FY22 exit of loss-making brands - complete within H1 FY22 Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management targeted exit of loss-making and marginal brands, with the financial impact to complete within H1 FY22. FY22 scorekeeping showed the discontinued brands exit completed with no losses post H1 FY22, after the strategic sale of 'Unlimited' retail business assets in Q2 FY22.
  16. FY22 debt reduction - to \~₹600 cr by year-end Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management recalled the FY22 target set at the start of the year of reducing debt to \~₹600 cr by year-end. Net debt came to <₹400 cr as of Mar'22, down more than 50% versus Mar'21.
  17. FY23 PAT positive Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management targeted becoming PAT positive in FY23. The PAT positive milestone was achieved in H2 FY22, ahead of the FY23 target, and FY23 closed with PAT of ₹109 cr.
  18. Tax regime change - lower 25% regime benefit Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 PPT, management stated moving ALBL to the lower tax regime (\~25% vs \~35%) would "optimize tax charge on future profits", be "ROCE accretive", lift reported PAT via \~10% tax saving, and raise consolidated ROCE by 150-200 bps. The move triggered a ₹120 cr exceptional DTA charge in Q4 FY25, adjusted FY25 bottom line grew more than 70%, and FY26 ROCE crossed 23%.
  19. US Polo womenswear - \~50% growth next year Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided US Polo womenswear to continue growing next year at around 50% or so, off a 100% growth base. It grew more than 50% in Q1 FY26 and 50% plus in Q3 FY26, with adjacent categories up 25%+ in Q1 FY27.
  20. Innerwear - cross ₹200 cr in near future On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided innerwear to cross ₹200 crores in revenue "in near future". Innerwear grew more than 15% in FY25, over 25% in Q1 FY26, and 20% plus in Q3 FY26; the record holds no explicit ₹200 cr milestone disclosure.
  21. Arrow + Flying Machine - PAT positive in near-to-midterm On track - At the Q3 FY25 call, management said the Arrow plus Flying Machine block has to become PAT positive in the "near to midterm", timing possibly "6 months earlier... 6 months late". By Q3 FY26 Arrow was profitable post-IndAS with Flying Machine 2-3 quarters behind, and Flying Machine clocked double-digit retail LTL and 70% B2C growth in Q4 FY26; no explicit combined PAT positive read exists.
  22. Online business - \~10% profitable growth, \~25% revenue mix Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management said the online business overall would likely grow "close to 10% profitably" with a revenue mix of around 25%, later revised to 20%-30% growth. B2C online grew 20% in Q3 FY25, over 30% in Q1 FY26 when the digital share crossed 25%, over 50% in Q2 FY26, and 38% in Q1 FY27 at an 18% share.
  23. Wholesale channel - back to 8-10% growth Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management said wholesale channels (department store, MBO) would likely get back to underlying growth of "8% to 10%" in the near term, later expecting a return in H2 FY26 after destocking. Wholesale grew 10% in Q1 FY26, double digits in Q3 FY26 and Q4 FY26, after low single-digit growth in FY25.
  24. Footwear - ₹500 cr target, 20%+ growth On track - At the Q3 FY25 call, management said footwear "has to grow at 20% minimum"; this was later framed as doubling in 3 years from a \~₹350 cr run rate toward the reiterated ₹500 crores target. After BIS disruption hit nine-month FY25 growth to high single digits, footwear crossed ₹300 crores in Q4 FY25, grew over 25% in Q2 FY26 and 20% plus in Q3 FY26.
  25. Flying Machine - ₹1,000 cr brand vision On track - At the Q3 FY24 call, management stated the vision is for Flying Machine to be a ₹1,000 crores brand, later committed at Q2 FY25 to scaling it from ₹500-700 crores and at Q1 FY26 to doubling in three to four years. Flying Machine has been at ₹400 crores for the last 4-5 years, but clocked double-digit retail LTL and 70% B2C growth in Q4 FY26 and double-digit growth since the residual stake acquisition in Q1 FY27.
  26. Inventory turns - 3.7x-3.8x as D2C mix increases On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management expected inventory turns to improve to 3.7x-3.8x as D2C mix increases; at the Q1 FY27 call the CFO expected turns of about 3.5 to return to 3.7-3.8 "in about 18 to 24 months". Inventory turns were \~3.6x in Q4 FY26 and \~3.5x in Q1 FY27.
  27. Gross margin - high 50s over 2-3 years On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management targeted gross margin moving to "high 50s" over the next 2-3 years. Q4 FY26 gross margin improved 20 bps, and Q1 FY27 improved \~90 bps to 56.7%.
  28. Arrow - ₹1,000 cr brand On track - At the Q2 FY25 call, management committed to scaling Arrow from its current ₹500-700 crores to ₹1,000 crores, with Arrow expected to hit ₹1,000 crores sooner; at Q1 FY26 both Arrow and Flying Machine were to double in three to four years. Arrow grew early single digits in Q3 FY26 on Bangladesh supply disruption, was subdued in Q4 FY26 on a onetime model change, and in Q1 FY27 is being driven toward profitability; the record holds no disclosure of Arrow approaching ₹1,000 cr.
  29. Arrow + FM EBITDA - from low single-digit to 10% in 2-3 years Partial - At the Q2 FY24 call, management guided that both Arrow and Flying Machine need to be taken in the next 2-3 years from low single-digit pre-IndAS EBITDA margin to the aspiration of 10% EBITDA, later revised to mid-single digit in two to three years and 200 bps a year, with FM nearing EBITDA breakeven by end FY27. Flying Machine was close to breakeven in Q1 FY25 and still work in progress in Q3 FY26, clocking double-digit retail LTL and 70% B2C growth in Q4 FY26; no disclosure of reaching mid-single-digit or 10% EBITDA exists.
  30. Arrow EBITDA - from low single-digit to 10% in \~2 years Partial - At the Q2 FY24 call, management guided Arrow from early/low single-digit pre-IndAS EBITDA margin to 10% EBITDA, "which could take 2 years or thereabouts", later recast as mid-single digit "soon" and 200 bps a year, with mid-single-digit reachable within a year as of Q3 FY26. Arrow was profitable at low single-digit EBITDA through FY25, post-IndAS profitable by Q3 FY26, and subdued in Q4 FY26 on a onetime model change; no FY-end disclosure of mid-single-digit or 10% EBITDA exists.
  31. Power Brands EBITDA - double-digit pre-IndAS, +100-150 bps annually Partial - At the Q2 FY24 call, management's first-stage guidance for Power Brands was double-digit pre-IndAS EBITDA with 100-150 bps annual expansion, later reset at Q2 FY26 to 50-100 bps over the next 3 years and at Q4 FY26 to 30-40 bps for FY27. FY24 delivered \~120 bps to 12.8%, FY25 100 bps to 13.8%, FY26 only 40 bps to 13.4% ex-other income, and Q1 FY27 44 bps.
  32. Tail-brand royalty outgo - drop to <₹10 cr next year onwards Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management committed that tail-brand (Aeropostale, Ed Hardy etc.) royalty outgo of \~₹15 crores "will drop to less than ₹10 crores next year onwards", with the Aeropostale royalty ceasing under a new deal. A ₹39 crores provision for the \~₹10-12 crores annual minimum royalty was taken in Q3 FY24, and by Q3 FY25 discontinued brands were "all out... cleaned up" with no P&L impact; no explicit FY25/FY26 outgo figure is disclosed.
  33. Online B2B de-stocking - pain to persist 1-2 quarters Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management said the online B2B de-stocking pain would persist "one more quarter at best two more quarters", with the pivot's revenue drag lasting "for another quarter or so". Q3 FY24 online B2B declined sharply on deliberate de-stocking, and by Q1 FY25 online D2C grew more than 60% with B2B and B2C roughly equal, the channel stabilizing.
  34. Online B2C share - toward 75% of online business On track - At the Q3 FY24 call, management aspired for the B2C (own marketplace) model to be close to 75% of overall online business versus inching towards 50%, later expecting a two-third B2C mix within 6 months. The online B2B:B2C mix was \~50-50 in Q3 FY25, and online B2C share of sales rose to 12% in Q2 FY26, 17% in Q3 FY26, 14% in Q4 FY26 and 18% in Q1 FY27.
  35. Capex - ₹80-100 cr annually Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided capex of ₹80-85 crores annualized, confirmed by the CFO/MD at ₹85 crores per annum and later revised to ₹90-100 crores and around ₹100 crores annually. FY24 capex was about ₹85 crores, FY25 close to ₹100 crores, and FY26 around ₹110 crores.
  36. Same-store growth (L2L) - 5%-7% target Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management set a same-store growth target of "between 5% and 7% should be our target", contingent on market improvement; FY25 full-year LTL tracked at 6-7%, "slightly higher than our guidance". LTL was 2% in Q3 FY24 and 1.5% in Q1 FY25, then consistently exceeded the band from Q1 FY26 onward: 8.1%, 8.3%, 8.2%, 7.8% and 11.6% in Q1 FY27.
  37. Store expansion - \~200 FOFO stores / 15% sq ft CAGR Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management committed to the \~200 FOFO store expansion plan, with the Q3 FY24 internal KPI set at "1.75 lakh to 2 lakh" sq ft expansion; this evolved into \~15% annual square-foot CAGR of close to 1.5 lakh sq ft per year. FY24 saw 146 stores and \~58K net sq ft, FY25 1.22 lakh sq ft added - highest ever, and FY26 more than 1.4 lakh (\~1.43 lakh) net sq ft.
  38. ROCE - 20%+ medium term Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided to a medium-term ROCE of more than 20%, with 15% crossed as the first benchmark. ROCE improved 400 bps to more than 16% in FY24, crossed 19% in Q3 FY25, crossed 20% in FY25, and crossed 23% in FY26, a multiyear high.
  39. Debt reduction - toward debt-free / near-zero debt Partial - At the Q2 FY24 call, management said almost the entire Sephora divestment proceeds would reduce debt, heading toward debt-free, with near 0 debt as a medium-term aspiration; this became "2 to 3 years, surely in 3 years" by Q2 FY25 and was pushed at Q4 FY26 to "about maybe in 9 to 12 months" owing to Flipkart transaction borrowing. Net debt fell to ₹476 cr in Q2 FY24, \~₹225 cr by Q1 FY25, with FY25 gross debt at ₹390 cr; FY26 borrowings rose to ₹531 cr on the Flipkart funding, and reported financials show debt of ₹1,336 cr and D/E 1.42 as of 02 Sep 2026.
  40. Medium-term revenue growth - 12%-15% Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management reiterated "in the medium term, we will continue to grow at 12% to 15%", reaffirmed repeatedly through Q1 FY27, when 12%-15% was reaffirmed "this year". Revenue grew 4.7% in FY24, 8.5% in FY25, 14.0% in FY26 - within the band - and 15.5% in Q1 FY27.
  41. Direct channels - \~15% growth Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management said direct channels (retail + B2C online) are expected to grow at around 15%, with the share later targeted from \~50% toward 70%, then 75%, then 65% over time. Retail grew 15% and online B2C more than 30% in Q1 FY26 at nearly 60% of revenue, and direct channel share moved to nearly 50% in Q2 FY26, nearly 63% in Q3 FY26, 56% in Q4 FY26 and 62% in Q1 FY27, up 380 bps YoY.