1. Value-added products - majority of EBITDA within 3 years Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management expected most or more than half of current EBITDA to come from value-added products over a medium term of three years. Value-added products are in piloting-to-commercialization stage, mostly on customer trials, with no quantitative EBITDA contribution disclosed.
2. GSM port expansion - 0.6 to 1 crore tons by Q4 FY27 On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, the GSM new jetty was under construction, expected operational by Q4 FY27, raising capacity from 0.6 to 1 crore tons per annum; earlier, Q4 FY26 guided 50-60% capacity addition by end of FY27-28. No completion disclosed as of Q1 FY27; total bauxite exporting capacity stands at 1.8 crore tons.
3. India capex - ₹150-200 crore across divisions Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, Manan Shah guided roughly ₹150 crore of capex over the next year across all India business divisions, reiterated at Q1 FY27 as close to ₹200 crore. No actual deployment against this plan is disclosed; Q1 FY27 is the first quarter of the stated horizon.
4. Bauxite washing plant - 20,000 tons per day capacity Delivered - At the Q4 FY26 call, management announced a bauxite washing plant of 20,000 tons per day capacity to upgrade non-marketable bauxite; by Q1 FY27, expansion to 40,000-60,000 t/day was flagged to take about one year subject to demand. The plant has been set up at the stated capacity, structured as operate-and-transfer with equivalent cost \~USD1.5 crore.
5. Tax - no income tax liability for 1-2 years On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, Ashish Desai stated no income tax liability for Ashapura, barring negligible MAT, for at least the next one or two years. In Q2 FY26, the parent's ₹259 crore carried-forward losses litigation settled in its favour, with ₹34.62 crore of deferred tax assets credited to P&L; no subsequent tax liability disclosed.
6. Debt - not increasing in FY27 Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management said the company is focused on not increasing debt in FY27, with reduction possible over the medium term; at Q3 FY26 debt was described as "close to its peak or at peak really". Debt stands at ₹1,442 crore with D/E 0.87 as of 01 Sep 2026, with no quarter-by-quarter trend disclosed to read the FY27 trajectory.
7. Guinea revenue - at least $700 million turnover in FY27 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, Manan Shah guided "at least a $700 million of turnover for Guinea next year" at \~$70 price, hedged as "hopeful"; at Q1 FY27 he added a \~$1 billion long-term bauxite revenue expectation at 1.5 crore tons baseline. Q1 FY27 Guinea turnover was \~₹1,360 crore, roughly $160 million at ₹83-85/USD - below an annualized $700 million, but only one quarter elapsed.
8. FY27 bauxite export volume - 1 to 1.2 crore tons On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided FY27 bauxite export volume broadly at 1 to 1.2 crore tons, depending on freight, geopolitics and quota uncertainties; Q1 FY27 reset this to a ±10% variance, i.e. 9 to 11 lakh tons, still optimistic on the original range. Q1 FY27 volumes were 0.23 crore tons, down \~26% sequentially from Q4's 0.32 crore tons - annualizing below the guided range, but only one quarter elapsed.
9. Iron ore beneficiation - 60%+ Fe, north of 0.15 crore tons capacity Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, Manan Shah expected to cross 60% Fe after beneficiation, with capacity "north of 0.15 crore tons", the exact number to follow later. The iron ore asset is low-to-medium grade \~40-50% Fe across a \~300 sq km mine with reserves of a few hundred million tons; no beneficiation plant completion or capacity confirmation disclosed.
10. Bentonite mines - 300,000 tons annual distribution from two new Kutch mines Pending - At the Q2 FY26 call, management expected to distribute 300,000 tons annually from two new bentonite mines in Kutch, improving cost structure and sales potential. The two mines started production after all clearances, and seven new bentonite leases were granted in Q4 FY26; no actual annual distribution volume disclosed.
11. Solar power - minimum 20% reduction in power cost at bleaching clay plant Pending - At the Q2 FY26 call, management foresaw a minimum 20% reduction of power cost at the bleaching clay plant from the newly commissioned 9-MW group-captive solar plant. APL owns 26% of the solar SPV via its Arkati Renewable LLP investment; no actual power cost reduction disclosed.
12. EBITDA per ton - maintain \~$9-10/ton Partial - At the Q2 FY26 call, management expected to maintain EBITDA of \~$9/ton, with Q1 FY26 actual at $9.3/ton; by Q1 FY27 the next one or two quarters were guided to \~$5.5-6/ton, with a return to the earlier \~$10 run-rate over the medium-to-longer term but an unpredictable timeline. Actuals: Q2 FY26 $8.9/ton, Q3 FY26 $10.5/ton, Q4 FY26 $5.9/ton, Q1 FY27 $6.3/ton.
13. Iron ore commercialization - meaningful contribution within 1-2 quarters Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, Manan Shah said the iron ore effect on the bottom line should be visible "maybe in the next quarter or two quarters", with Q2 FY26 defining commercialization as at least 0.1 crore tons per quarter; later calls pushed timelines out, to three-four quarters for the beneficiation plan by Q4 FY26. Iron ore remains in trial/commissioning with fairly low revenues as of Q1 FY27; small volumes executed in Q3 FY26 and no meaningful bottom-line contribution disclosed.
14. Guinea port capacity - 2.7 crore metric tons by Q1 FY27 Partial - At the Q1 FY26 call, management expected Guinea port capacity to reach 2.7 crore metric tons by Q1 FY27, from 1.6 crore metric tons; by Q4 FY26 the expansion was pegged to end-2026, and Q1 FY27 guided GSM's new jetty operational by Q4 FY27 for a combined \~2.3 crore tons in the medium term. Boffa is fully operational at 0.8 crore tons against a plan of 1 crore ton by Q2 FY27; total capacity stands at 1.8 crore tons with GSM expansion pending.
15. Bauxite export volume - 1.5 crore tons by FY27-28 On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, Manan Shah targeted exporting 1.5 crore tons of bauxite by FY27-28, first stated in the FY25 annual report and reiterated through FY26 with "close to linear progression"; by Q1 FY27 management was "absolutely" confident of achieving or even crossing it by FY28. FY26 exports were \~0.8 crore tons vs 0.35 crore tons in FY25, and Q1 FY27 saw 0.23 crore tons, with FY27 guidance reset to 1-1.2 crore tons; the FY27-28 horizon is not yet reached.
16. Boffa port construction - completion by Q1 FY25 Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 result, the new Boffa port in Guinea was expected to complete construction by Q1 FY25. The ABB Boffa Port was fully commissioned as the company's third captive port in FY25.
17. Creditor settlements - advanced stages of negotiation Pending - At the Q3 FY24 result, the company was at advanced stages of negotiating settlements with other large non-operational creditors. No settlement outcome disclosed in our record.