AVG Logistics Ltd Guidance Report - SOIC x StockScans Report

as of Sep 2026

  1. Cement manufacturer contract - 30 EV trucks, 5-year tenure Pending - In the 12th August 2026 announcement, AVG signed a strategic contract with a renowned cement manufacturer to deploy a dedicated fleet of 30 heavy-duty EV trucks under a 5-year tenure. No disclosure of the trucks being deployed exists in our record; the contract is newly signed.
  2. Trade receivable days - improve to \~139 days by March 2027 On track - In the rights issue Letter of Offer, receivable days, which rose from 123 (FY24) to 135 (FY25) to 154 (FY26), were expected to improve to approximately 139 days as at March 31, 2027. No FY27 receivable-days disclosure exists yet; the March 2027 horizon is not reached.
  3. FY27 vehicles - 200 by March 2027 On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management targeted adding around 200 vehicles by March '27 - around 50-60 CNG, 100 LNG (contract secured) and 30 EV (order received), plus a 70-vehicle EV order under discussion. Q1 FY27 saw 40 of the 100 Haldiram vehicles deployed, with the remaining 60 under deployment.
  4. Carbonlite Logistics - operations start within one month Partial - At the Q4 FY26 call, management said Carbonlite Logistics operations would start "in the maximum next one month or so"; by Q1 FY27 the start was revised to 1st October 2026. The JV is incorporated with initial capital deployed and customer talks on LNG and EV contracts underway, but operations had not started.
  5. Haldiram - additional 100 vehicles by December 2026 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management said another \~100-vehicle Haldiram contract "may further come by another two to three month" after the initial 100 vehicles; by Q1 FY27 Haldiram asked for another 100 vehicles by December 2026. On 21st August 2026, 40 of the initial 100 vehicles were deployed, with 60 expected within one to two months.
  6. Liquid logistics - 8-10 trains by 2030 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management committed to growing liquid logistics "in a fast manner with the 8-10 trains by 2030". By Q4 FY26 two tank trains were purchased with 180 container tankers and a third rake pursued on lease; by Q1 FY27 future tankers were to be leased.
  7. FY27 capex - ₹50 crore plus On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, the CFO guided FY27 capex of ₹50 crores plus, reiterated at the Q1 FY27 call as "₹50 crores, ₹60 crores". FY26 capex invested was ₹62 crores; FY27 capex is not yet disclosed.
  8. FY27 revenue growth - 15-20% On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided 15-20% revenue growth in FY27, reiterated at the Q1 FY27 call. Q1 FY27 revenue growth was 5.97%, below the target with the full-year outcome pending.
  9. Cold chain revenue - ₹150 crore by FY27 On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided cold chain revenue of ₹150 crores "till next year 27", with a partial reset to ₹135-140 crores if not 150. Q3 FY26 cold chain revenue over 9 months was \~₹80 crores; no FY27 disclosure exists yet.
  10. Cold chain vehicles - 200 this year, next year On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management planned to add around 200 cold chain vehicles "this year, next year", against a cold chain fleet of \~450. By Q1 FY27 the target was to add around 200 vehicles by March '27; no disclosure of 200 cold chain vehicles added exists.
  11. FY26 revenue - ₹560-570 crore Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided FY26 revenue of \~₹560-570 crores. FY26 total income came in at ₹582.48 crore, above the guided range.
  12. Q4 FY25 revenue - ₹182 crore Missed - At the Q3 FY25 call, management affirmed Q4 FY25 revenue of \~₹182 crores was possible ("Yes, definitely"). Q4 FY25 revenue was ₹148 crore, well below the target.
  13. Q3 and Q4 FY25 growth - 20-25% Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management committed to 20-25% growth for Q3 and Q4 ("we are promising that this 20%, 25% growth what we are doing we will be achieving that in Q3 and Q4 as well"). Q3 FY25 growth was 14.20% and Q4 FY25 growth was 7.86% - both below the commitment.
  14. Acquisitions - first deal by November/December 2024, second in Q4 FY25 Partial - At the Q2 FY25 call, the first acquisition (₹45 crore revenue company) was to be completed "by 30th November or maximum 2nd of December", with a second in the fourth quarter; by Q3 FY25 Kaizen was expected by Q4 FY25. Kaizen closed in January, past the December deadline, and was later shown as a 99% stake acquired; the second acquisition was not completed.
  15. Government tender - ₹500 crore, ₹100 crore in FY25 Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, a government tender was expected "by 15th of December" with \~₹100 crore revenue expected in the year; by Q3 FY25 the price bid was hoped to open "by 10th of March". The tender remained in technical evaluation with the price bid delayed; no award or ₹100 crore revenue was disclosed.
  16. Cement & steel - ₹200-300 crore in 1-2 years Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management targeted ₹200-300 crores of revenue from cement and steel customers "in next 1 to 2 years"; this was later reframed to ₹1,000 crore over three to five years. Q2 FY25 Dalmia and UltraTech contracts combined ran at ₹1.5-2 crore per month and Q4 FY26 industrial logistics was ₹100 crore+ annually - below the ₹200-300 crore target.
  17. UPSRTC parcel business - ₹1 crore per month, ₹60 crore over 5 years Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, the UPSRTC parcel business was expected to generate around ₹1 crore per month initially, totalling ₹60 crores over 5 years. By Q2 FY25, an authorized partner was appointed with space in 9,000 UPSRTC buses and express parcel revenue ran at around ₹2 crore per month, above the initial target.
  18. B2C mix - 25% in 2-3 years Pending - At the Q4 FY24 call, management targeted a \~25% B2C mix to be reached in another 2-3 years, against a mix that was \~85%-90% B2B at the time. No disclosure of B2C mix reaching 25% exists in our record; the window runs to \~March 2026-2027.
  19. Capex - ₹50-100 crore over 2-3 years On track - At the Q4 FY24 call, management outlined capital investment of roughly ₹50-100 crores over the next 2-3 years, with later updates adding ₹25-30 crore of assets plus ₹50 crore leased and FY27 capex of ₹50 crores plus. FY26 capex invested was ₹62 crores, within the guided range; the window runs to \~March 2026-2027.
  20. Rail expansion - 8 trains over 2 years Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management planned to add another eight trains over the next 2 years, at roughly one train per quarter, on top of eight rail routes; new routes were then targeted by September or October. The company ran seven-eight trains in Q2 FY25 with new trains still only expected in Q3 FY26; no disclosure of 8 additional trains exists.
  21. FY26 revenue - ₹850-900 crore and PAT ₹50-60 crore Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, management targeted FY26 revenue of 850-900 crore (700 crore FY25 with 20% growth) and PAT of 50-60 crore at \~6% margin. FY26 revenue was ₹582.48 crore and PAT ₹26.17 crore - both targets missed by wide margins.
  22. Railway business - ₹120 crore to ₹500 crore in 3-4 years On track - At the Q3 FY24 call, management targeted growing the railway business from \~120 crore to 500 crore in the next 3 to 4 years, later guiding FY25 rail business above ₹200 crores. The railway business ran at around ₹10 crores per month in Q1 FY25 with rail routes at \~95% utilization by Q3 FY26; the window runs to \~December 2026-2027.
  23. Debt reduction - ₹20 crore term loan + ₹30 crore by March 2025 Partial - At the Q3 FY24 call, management targeted finishing \~20 crore of term loan plus another 30 crore by March '25. Long-term borrowings fell to around ₹25-30 crores by Q4 FY24, but debt stood at ₹90.11 crores in Q1 FY25 and net debt was ₹86 crore at September 2024 - the full ₹50 crore reduction was not met.
  24. FY25 EBITDA margin - 18-20% Partial - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided FY25 EBITDA margin of 18-20%, also citing 22-25% and later "around 18%, 19% EBITDA margin. Overall basis". FY25 EBITDA margin came in at 17.33%, narrowly below the 18-20% range on a statement basis.
  25. Q4 FY24 revenue - ₹150-160 crore Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, the CFO targeted 150-160 crore of revenue in Q4 FY24. Q4 FY24 revenue was ₹136.95 crore, below the target.
  26. Packers & Movers - ₹35 crore by March 2025 Missed - At the Q3 FY24 call, management targeted \~35 crore revenue from the newly added Packer and Mover business by March '25, around ₹3 crore per month; this was revised to ₹20-25 crores by March '25 at Q4 FY24. The vertical did ₹2-3 crores over 6-8 months as of Q1 FY25; no disclosure of reaching ₹20-35 crore exists.
  27. Cold chain fleet - 400 vehicles by March/December 2024 Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management targeted growing the cold chain fleet to around 400 vehicles "by March December '24". The fleet reached \~400 cold chain vehicles by Q3 FY25 and \~450 by Q3 FY26, meeting the target.
  28. Green vehicles - 100 by December 2024 Partial - At the Q3 FY24 call, management targeted adding 100 green vehicles (EV and LNG) by December '24; this was phased to 50 by December '24 and 50 by June '25, then "around more than 100 vehicles in this year by March '25". The first LNG truck launched in March 2024 and 121 fleets were added in H1 FY25, but the 100 green vehicles by December 2024 was not met, with \~100+ vehicles added only by FY26.
  29. NDR AVG one-time profit - ₹18 crore in Q3 FY24 Partial - At the Q2 FY24 call, management said the NDR AVG accounting loss would reverse and \~₹18 crores of one-time profit would come in quarter 3. The profit was recognized in Q4 FY24 - ₹13.94 crores from partial investment sale plus ₹7.02 crores in other income, \~₹18.5 crores at PBT level - one quarter late.
  30. Growth - 20-30% year-on-year Missed - At the Q2 FY24 call, management said the company would grow by 20% to 30% year on year; the commitment was maintained through Q2 FY25 and Q3 FY25 at 25%-30%, then scaled to 15-20% by Q3 FY26. FY25 revenue growth was 14.93% and FY26 growth 5.07% - below the 20-30% target.
  31. Vision - ₹1,000 crore turnover in 5 years On track - At the Q2 FY24 call, management set a vision of ₹1,000 crores turnover in the next five years and ₹2,500-3,000 crores in 10 years, later compressed to \~₹1,000 crores in 3 to 4 years; by Q4 FY26 Vision 2030 reset the goal to ₹1,250 crores by 2030. FY26 revenue was ₹582.48 crore with 15-20% growth guided for FY27; the window runs to \~September 2028.
  32. Debt-free by March 2026 Missed - At the Q2 FY24 call, management planned to repay the entire debt and be a debt-free company by March '26, reiterated at Q3 FY24 and revised to "by March 27, 28" at Q1 FY25. Net debt at March 2026 was ₹173.05 crore with gross debt ₹180.82 crore and debt-equity of 0.67 - not debt-free.
  33. PAT margin - 10% on turnover in 3 years Missed - At the Q2 FY24 call, management targeted a PAT margin of 10% on turnover over the next three years, later stretched to "3 years to 4 years" contingent on debt-free status by March '26, and framed as gradual at Q4 FY24. FY26 PAT margin was 4.49% and Q1 FY27 was 4.87% - far below the 10% target as the window closed.
  34. Cold chain division revenue - double in one year Missed - At the Q2 FY24 call, management planned to double the cold chain division revenue, then ₹70-80 crores turnover, in the next year; this became a \~₹150 crore FY25 target and later ₹110 crores for FY26 with ₹150 crores "till next year 27". Cold chain revenue over 9M FY26 was around ₹80 crores - the doubling target was not achieved.
  35. Cold stores - 2-3 pan-India cold stores Missed - At the Q2 FY24 call, management planned at least two-three cold stores pan-India, leveraging \~40% government subsidy, with three cold warehouses available "by December 24th". Land was taken in Orissa for a 1,25,000 sq ft warehouse and in Tahliwal, Himachal, but no completed cold stores were disclosed.
  36. Multimodal share - from 30% to 50% in 1-2 years Missed - At the Q2 FY24 call, management expected the multimodal share of the transportation business to go from 30% up to 50% within the next one or two years. Railways contributed \~25% of business in Q3 FY24 and around 15% of revenue in Q1 FY25; no disclosure of reaching 50% exists and the window has lapsed.
  37. EBITDA margin - jump from 18% to \~22% Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management expected overall EBITDA margin to jump from 18% to \~22%, driven by new businesses. FY24 EBITDA margin was 22.69%; FY25 came in at 17.33%, so the \~22% level was reached in FY24 but not sustained.
  38. Additional trains - 2-3 more trains in six months Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management expected to add "two, three more trains" in the next six months, in talks with railways for lanes such as Gujarat to Assam. Three new rail routes were added by Q4 FY24, taking the network to eight routes from six trains in Q3 FY24.
  39. Railway segment revenue - ₹100-110 crore in FY24 Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management expected railway segment revenue of around ₹100-110 crores for FY24, under a railways agreement worth around ₹500 crores over the next 6 years. The six existing trains did \~₹100 crores in FY24, within the guided range.
  40. FY24 revenue - ₹520-525 crore Missed - At the Q2 FY24 call, management expected revenue of around ₹520-525 crores for FY24, later revised to a 500 crore close at Q3 FY24. FY24 total income was ₹491.07 crores, up 14.23% YoY, attributed to 1-2 month delays in operations start of signed contracts.
  41. FY25 PAT - ₹30-35 crore by March 2025 Missed - At the Q2 FY24 call, management guided PAT of around ₹30-35 crores by March '25, driven by reefer, warehousing and packers & movers; margin guidance was progressively cut from 5-6% to 4-5% by Q2 FY25. FY25 PAT was ₹21.33 crore at a 3.87% margin - both the PAT target and revised margin missed.
  42. FY25 revenue - ₹700-750 crore by March 2025 Missed - At the Q2 FY24 call, management targeted revenue of around ₹700-750 crores by March '25, driven by reefer, rail and new entities; reaffirmed at Q1 FY25, conditioned on a government contract with a ₹600 crore floor at Q2 FY25, and lowered to "minimum 20% growth" at Q3 FY25. FY25 revenue from operations was ₹551.52 crore, +14.93% YoY - below both the ₹700 crore target and ₹600 crore floor.
  43. Warehousing area - double to 20 lakh sq ft in 3 years Missed - At the Q2 FY24 call, management planned to double warehousing area from 8 lakh sq ft in the next 3 years, restated as 20 lakh sq ft in three years; later plans targeted \~15 lakh sq ft next year with 5 lakh sq ft to be added "by '27". As of Q4 FY26 the network had 7,40,571 sq ft of warehousing space - far below 20 lakh sq ft as the 3-year window closed.