1. Kanjurmarg tonnage - 7,500 TPD in 3-4 years Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided Kanjurmarg processing tonnage to "safely" reach 7,500 tons per day in the next three to four years, from \~5,300 TPD then. Tonnage was \~5,800 TPD in Q4 FY24, \~6,000 TPD in FY25, \~6,300 TPD in Q2 FY26 and \~6,000 TPD in Q1 FY27 - the 7,500 TPD target was not reached by FY25-FY26.
2. FY23 topline growth - 30% and EBITDA growth 27% Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, the CFO reiterated FY23 guidance of 30% topline growth and 27% EBITDA growth, also guiding "approximately 30% to 35%" topline growth. FY23 total revenue grew 31%, while reported EBITDA was flat at Rs. 168 crores and adjusted EBITDA of \~Rs. 188.7 crores was up \~9% from Rs. 173 crores - well short of 27%.
3. MSW processing share - 32-33% of turnover in two years Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management expected MSW processing to inch up to 32%-33% of total turnover in the next two years. Revenue mix was 23% processing in FY24, 27% in FY25 and 25% in FY26 - never reaching 32-33% within the horizon.
4. EPR agreement - process 1,500 tons of PET bottles Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management aimed to process and safely dispose 1,500 tons of PET bottles during the EPR engagement, an aim repeated in announcement and annual report disclosures. The contract remained unclosed in Q1 FY25 with approvals pending, and by Q3 FY25 management said "we are not pursuing that now".
5. Kanjurmarg power generation capacity - double over 3-4 years Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management said it was doubling Kanjurmarg power generation capacity over the next three to four years. By Q2 FY26 the plant was still at 0.97 MW with doubling only "considered", and no capacity increase was disclosed through FY26.
6. Expired contracts - extension for maximum another one year Missed - At the Q3 FY22 call, management said expired-but-extended contracts (Thane, Navi Mumbai, Mangalore, Noida) would be extended for "maximum another one year". Mangalore was extended to January 2023, then June 2023, then January 2024 before expiring, and Thane and Navi Mumbai continued in extension mode.
7. At least 30% topline growth over next two years Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management expected "at least 30% topline growth" over the next two years if everything went well. FY23 revenue grew 31% and FY24 grew 2%, a cumulative \~34% from Rs. 667 crores to Rs. 896 crores - meeting the two-year target.
8. Nashik C&T contract - commence on or before September 30, 2022 Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management anticipated the Nashik project would begin operation on or before September 30, 2022, echoed in the same-quarter announcement. The Nashik C&T project started operations in December 2022, roughly one quarter late.
9. Portfolio target - 50:50 C&T to processing On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management stated a portfolio target of moving from \~70% C&T / 30% processing towards a 50-50 (processing/WtE) portfolio, a mix target earlier framed in Q3 FY24 as "at least 50:50 in favor of processing" in the next couple of years. Q1 FY27 mix was C&T 62%, processing 28% - shifted only marginally from 60/28, with the horizon approaching.
10. BMC C&T contracts - start Q3 FY27, \~1,500 TPD On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said the BMC contract would start from Q3 FY27 onwards with a slightly better margin profile, adding \~1,500 tons per day. One of seven wards started in Q1 FY27 with only 7 days of operation, with full operation expected in Q3 and Q4.
11. Greater Noida Industrial Development Authority sweeping contract - commence Q3 FY27, \~Rs. 46 crores first-year revenue Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said the new Rs. 243 crores, 5-year Greater Noida Industrial Development Authority mechanical road sweeping contract would commence in Q3 FY27 and contribute \~Rs. 46 crores in its first year; the CFO noted it was received "yesterday", i.e., \~August 10, 2026. No commencement or revenue has occurred yet.
12. PCMC WTE restart - by first week of October 2026 Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said the PCMC WtE plant would restart after OEM and Hitachi certification, expected back by the first week of October 2026, later "by second week of October" and at full capacity in Q4. Operations were suspended as a precaution after the July 8 incident, with MRF and composting resuming from July 28; the October restart had not occurred as of the Q1 FY27 call.
13. Wage code matter - resolved in Q4 FY26 Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management said the wage code matter would be resolved in Q4. In Q4 FY26 the minimum wage change under the Labour Code was quantified at Rs. 5.2 crores on the entire books, and Q1 FY27 booked its actuarial restatement alongside a Maharashtra DA revision.
14. FY27 revenue growth - 15-18% On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided FY27 revenue growth of 15% to 18%, based on Atkoli and incremental capex on already signed contracts and current run rate. Q1 FY27 revenue was Rs. 269 crores, up 6% YoY - below target but the year is incomplete, with acceleration expected from Atkoli and BMC contracts.
15. FY26 revenue growth - 15-18% based on existing contracts Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management guided FY26 revenue growth of around 15%-18% based on existing contracts; at Q1 FY26 this was lowered to 8-10% growth "baked in" on the existing platform. FY26 operating revenue was Rs. 920 crores, up 9%, and total revenue Rs. 1,084 crores, up 13% - meeting the revised guidance, below the original.
16. Thane (Atkoli) project - commissioned by December 2026 On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided the Thane (TMC) project to be completed in 6 to 8 months with revenue realization by December 2026, then 10 years of O&M. At Q1 FY27 the timeline was revised to Q4 FY27, with the 600-800 TPD Atkoli plant starting in Q3 or Q4 of FY27 and construction active.
17. Andhra Pradesh WTE projects - financial closure by December 2025, construction start Q4 FY26 On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management guided PPA execution by end of November 2025, financial closure by end of December 2025, and construction start in Q4 FY26 over a 24-month phase; later revisions moved revenue contribution to FY29 onwards. Concession agreements and PPAs were executed by Q3 FY26, and by Q1 FY27 land was in possession at Kadapa and Kurnool, the contractor mobilizing, with financial closure "almost at last stage" and the projects "going as per schedule".
18. C&D Dahisar ramp-up - 600-700 TPD over 6 months Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management said C&D Dahisar would ramp from 250-300 TPD to 600-700 TPD over the next 6 months; by Q2 FY26 this was revised to \~350-plus TPD after monsoon and "maybe by second quarter of FY '27". Volumes were \~225 TPD in Q2 FY26, jumped to 480-520 TPD from February onwards in Q4 FY26, and reached \~600-650 TPD in Q1 FY27 against 600 TPD capacity.
19. Navi Mumbai C&T contract - full ramp-up by Q1 FY26 Missed - At the Q3 FY25 call, management said the new NMMC C&T contract revenue would start in phases with full ramp-up towards end of Q1 FY26, reiterated at Q4 FY25 with all wards fully operational in Q1 FY26. By Q2 FY26, incremental revenue from the new C&T contracts was only \~Rs. 14 crores, similar to the prior quarter, indicating full ramp-up had not been achieved.
20. Kanjurmarg WTE plant - 3,000 TPD, Rs. 800-1,000 crores capex Pending - At the Q2 FY25 call, management explored a \~3,000 TPD Kanjurmarg WTE project - three lines of 1,000 TPD each - with a proposal submitted to BMC, sized at almost 4-5x PCMC, construction of 2-3 years and capex of Rs. 800-1,000 crores. The corporation put it on hold pending Supreme Court clarification on Kanjurmarg land usage; by Q4 FY26 no firm timeline existed, and as of Q1 FY27 nothing has been approved or commenced.
21. Chennai waste processing park tender - proposal submission by July 2024 Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said it was "seriously pursuing" the Chennai waste processing park tender with the proposal to be submitted "sometime in July or so"; at Q1 FY25 the bid was pushed to later in August 2024. In Q2 FY25 management gave the Chennai waste-to-energy contract "a miss", citing counterparty risk with TNEB not being bankable.
22. PCMC VGF subsidy - Rs. 50 crores total, Rs. 35 crores in final stage Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, the CFO said VGF subsidy of "around INR 35-odd crores" was in its final stage with payment promised in weeks; by Q1 FY25 the remaining Rs. 25 crores was structured as Rs. 20 crores on commissioning and Rs. 5 crores after 12 months of COD, with the balance Rs. 5 crores due by September 2025 and later within 6 months. Rs. 45 crores of the Rs. 50 crores was received by Q2 FY25, but the final Rs. 5 crores was still outstanding as of Q1 FY27.
23. PAT margin - 10.5% to 11.25% going forward Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, the CFO guided a PAT margin of around 10.5% to 11.25% going forward. PAT margin was 11.1% in FY24 and 10.5% in FY25, but fell to 8.5% in FY26 (Rs. 91.8 crores on Rs. 1,084 crores) and \~0.3% in Q1 FY27 (Rs. 0.7 crores on Rs. 269 crores).
24. ROE - improve over 3-4 years Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, the CFO said ROCE and ROE would "improve a bit" over the next 3 to 4 years. ROE was 18.01% in FY24, 15.27% in FY25 and 12.42% in FY26 (10.0%) - it declined rather than improved over the period.
25. ROCE - hold \~20% level Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, the CFO endorsed holding the current \~20% ROCE level; at Q2 FY25 this was revised to expansion of 75-120 bps from Q4 FY25, with steady-state ROCE guided down to 11% to 14%. ROCE was 19% at March 2022, then 15.33% (FY23), 14.84% (FY24), 14.95% (FY25) and 12.58% (FY26), 11.5%- a steady decline to \~11.5-12.6%.
26. Non-municipal revenue - 15-20% in five years On track - At the Q2 FY24 call, management targeted 15-20% non-municipal revenue five years out; at Q3 FY24 an interim target of at least 5% in the next couple of years was set. Sale of recyclables contributed close to 4% of consolidated revenue in Q1 FY26 and the C&D segment contributed 5% in Q3 FY26 - below 15-20%, but the five-year horizon (by FY29) has not been reached.
27. RDF sales - at least double in FY24 Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management expected to at least double RDF sales quantity in FY24. FY23 RDF sales were \~50,000 tons; FY24 sales were 1.47 lakh tons - nearly triple the FY23 level.
28. C&D product sales - 10% additional revenue over tipping fees in 1-2 years Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, management expected C&D product sales to add about 10% additional revenue over tipping-fee revenue in the next one to two years. By Q3 FY25, by-product sales were 3%-5% of C&D project revenue, and no updated figure was disclosed at Q1 FY27 - below the 10% target within the stated window.
29. PCMC WTE EBITDA margin - 40-45% Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management guided a WTE plant EBITDA margin of around 40% to 45%; at Q4 FY25 management said 40% is the "lower range" for such projects, and at Q3 FY26 "upwards of 40%" was guided for the Andhra projects. FY25 WTE plant revenue was Rs. 62 crores with management confirming 40% as the floor - consistent with the guided range.
30. PCMC WTE PLF - 60-65% starting, 80-85% within 4-5 months Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management guided a starting PLF of \~60%-65%, ramping to 80%-85% within four to five months of inauguration; subsequent targets moved through 85-90%, \~80% steady state, \~75% for year two, and upwards of 88%-90%. The inaugural quarter ran at \~71% PLF, Q1 FY25 reached \~89%, FY25 averaged \~82% and Q4 FY26 83% - the ramp was achieved within the first year of operations.
31. Receivables - 60-75 days weighted average Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management said receivables normally swing between 60-75 days on a weighted average basis and expected a return to that range; the CFO's endeavor at Q1 FY22 was \~59 DSO, with Q3 FY22 guiding stabilization at the then 74 days. DSO was 68 days at September 2021 and 70 days at March 2022, but rose to 90 days at March 2023, 103 days at March 2024, 108 days at March 2026 and 114 days at June 2026 - consistently above the range from FY23 onwards.
32. EBITDA margin - 27-27.5% near-term, 30-32% blended from FY24 Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management guided EBITDA margin of around 27% to 27.5%, conditional on fuel prices, with blended EBITDA margin from FY24 onwards in the range of around 30-32%. Steady-state guidance was progressively lowered to 22-24%, then 21-23%, 22-23%, 20-23% and finally 20% to 22% by Q4 FY26. Actual margins were 22.5% in FY24, 23.0% in FY25, 21.8% in FY26 and 16.8% in Q1 FY27 - the 30-32% target was never achieved.
33. 25% CAGR core revenue growth - long-term target Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management committed to an internal 25% CAGR growth target, reiterated across FY23-FY25 calls as 20-25% CAGR over shifting 2-to-5-year windows. At Q4 FY26 the target was lowered to 15% to 20% revenue CAGR over the next 5 years. Revenue grew from Rs. 667 crores in FY22 to Rs. 1,084 crores in FY26, a \~13% CAGR over four years - well short of the 20-25% target.
34. Vehicle scrapping facility - announcement by end of FY23, revenue from FY25 Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, management said by end of FY23 the company would be at an advanced stage of announcing its first vehicle scrapping facility, with revenue from FY25 onwards; timelines then slipped repeatedly through FY26 commissioning, land applications and a \~40 vehicles/day start, before a Q4 FY26 shift to "wait and watch" mode. No facility has been announced or commissioned as of Q1 FY27 - the investment remains deferred, still being evaluated and "not rushing in".
35. Mumbai C&D waste project - launch Q4 FY24, \~Rs. 30 crores annualized revenue Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management anticipated commissioning the Mumbai C&D waste project "by the fourth quarter of FY2024"; the launch was then pushed to Q1 FY25 and set for 14th August 2024, with \~Rs. 30 crores annualized revenue guided. The site commenced operation in August 2024 with COD in November 2024, handling \~250-300 TPD at \~Rs. 1,405 per ton in Q4 FY25, but FY26 C&D revenue was around Rs. 9 crores - well below the \~Rs. 30 crores guided.
36. PCMC WTE revenue - Rs. 60-65 crores full scale; FY24 Rs. 18-20 crores; FY25 Rs. 58-65 crores Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, the CFO guided WTE annual revenue of around 60-65 crores at full operation, with Q1 FY24 guidance of \~INR 18-20 crores in FY24 and \~INR 58-65 crores in FY25; Q4 FY24 framed FY25 incremental revenue as INR 45-55 crores in its first full year. FY25 WTE plant revenue was Rs. 62 crores, within the guided Rs. 58-65 crores range; normalized run-rate at 85% PLF is \~Rs. 13-14 crores per quarter.
37. NDMC C&T contract - 100% mobilization by June 2022, \~Rs. 100 crores annualized revenue Delivered - At the Q3 FY22 call, management guided the NDMC C&T contract to start by May or June 2022 with full mobilization by end May/June and full revenue from Q2 FY23, at around Rs. 100 crores annualized; revisions pushed 100% scale-up to around Q2-Q3 FY23 and endorsed a Rs. 95-110 crores run-rate. NDMC contributed only 15 days of revenue in FY22, ramped up from February 15, 2023 with COD requested, and Q1 FY24 peak tonnage of not less than 900 to 1,000 tons per day - annualized revenue in the guided range.
38. PCMC WTE power generation - 11.76 MW supply by end of FY24 Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management planned to gradually increase Pimpri Chinchwad WTE power supply to almost 11.76 MW by end of fiscal year, per the announcement too; this was revised at Q3 FY24 to \~11.0 MW in the upcoming fiscal year. Supply was \~8 MW in Q3 FY24, and by FY25 \~11.5 MW of generated electricity was being utilised by PCMC under Green Open Access rules - within the revised window.
39. Disputed municipal dues - Rs. 8.05 crores resolution in FY22 Partial - At the Q1 FY22 call, management expected to redress disputed municipal dues of Rs. 8.05 crores during the current financial year. Disputes with Bhiwandi and Navi Mumbai were redressed by Q4 FY22, but the auditors qualified receivables of Rs. 8.05 crores pending four years as of Q4 FY23, and a \~Rs. 15 crores court-favourable receivable was still pending at Q1 FY27.
40. Dividend policy - Board to formulate "shortly" before AGM Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management said the Board would formulate a dividend policy "shortly" and get back before the AGM; the matter was then repeatedly deferred - until stabilization, "sometime in the next year" at Q2 FY24, direction "within the next 2 or 3 quarters" at Q4 FY24, and evaluation post-merger at Q3 FY26. The Board recommended a maiden dividend of Rs. 0.50 per equity share (10% of face value of Rs. 5) in FY26 - delivered after repeated deferrals, within the broad "next year" window.
41. Lara (Brazil) stake conversion - 36% to 73% by September 2021 Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management said AWHCL's stake in Lara would go from 36% to 73% post conversion of convertible shares, expected by September 2021; at Q2 FY22 the documentation timeline was revised to December 31, 2021. In Q3 FY22, 3.5 lakh convertible preference shares were converted 1:1, raising the stake from 63.04% to 73%, with the remaining \~12 lakh CCPS converted in the first week after quarter-end - confirmed in Q4 FY22.
42. Core operating revenue growth - 18-20% YoY at 100% normalcy Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided core operating revenue (tipping fees) to improve by approximately 18% to 20% year-on-year at 100% normalcy, excluding one-off project/CAPEX-driven revenue. FY22 core operating revenue grew 32% YoY to Rs. 568 crores, exceeding the guided range; FY23 core revenue grew 15%.
43. Cost of borrowing - reduce by 100 to 125 bps Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management said it was talking to banks to reduce the existing cost of borrowing by 100 to 125 bps. Average consolidated borrowing cost fell from 12.4% (March 2020) to 10.71% (September 2021) and 8.11% (March 2022) - over 400 bps at peak, far exceeding the target - before drifting back to 10.1% by June 2026.
44. Net debt-to-equity - around 0.6 to 0.65x after WTE drawdown Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided net debt-to-equity, after full drawdown of waste-to-energy capex and debt, at around 0.6 to 0.65x; this was revised to up to 0.7x by 2023 and then to a ceiling of 0.8x-0.9x on a fully drawn basis. Net debt/equity was 0.4x at March 2023, 0.5x at March 2024, 0.4x at March 2025, 0.3x at March 2026 and 0.4x at June 2026 - never exceeding 0.5x.
45. PCMC waste-to-energy capex - \~Rs. 200 crores over two years Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided \~Rs. 200 crores capex over the next two years for the Pimpri-Chinchwad waste-to-energy project, with spending phased across FY22-FY23 and the capital cost "fixed and firmed with a vendor" and capped at Rs. 264 crores, escalated from Rs. 240 crores. The project actually invested \~INR 240 crores versus \~INR 190 crores earlier costing, the additional \~INR 50 crores going as equity, and the plant was commissioned in FY24.
46. Pimpri-Chinchwad waste-to-energy plant - operational by March 2023 Partial - At the Q1 FY22 call, management guided the Pimpri-Chinchwad WTE plant COD2 construction at "around 16 to 18 months", with the plant "should be operational by March 2023" per Q2 FY22, reiterated through FY23 filings; revisions at Q2 FY23 (semiconductor shortage affecting DCS and control valves) moved the start to Q1 FY24, then Q3 FY24. The 1,000 TPD plant was commissioned and inaugurated in August 2023 with commercial power sales from 2nd October 2023, achieving \~71% inaugural-quarter PLF and \~82% average PLF in FY25 - roughly two quarters late.
47. Jhansi C&T and Greater Noida bio-mining - revenue from October 2021 / Q3-Q4 FY22 Partial - At the Q1 FY22 call, management expected Jhansi C&T and Greater Noida bio-mining to start generating revenue from October 2021, with both contributing from Q3 and Q4 of FY22; Jhansi was targeted 100% operational by January 26, 2022, and Greater Noida bio-mining started November onwards after October-end mobilization. Jhansi was fully operational by Q4 FY22, and Greater Noida booked first revenue in Q4 FY22 (\~10% of project value); however, bio-mining at GNIDA was completed only in Q2 FY24, clearing 2.19 lakh tons and reclaiming 19 acres - revenue start on schedule, completion later than the stated window.