1. No equity dilution and no incremental long-term debt On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management committed to no equity dilution and no incremental long-term debt, permitting only working-capital or short-term bridge financing. The Q1 FY27 deck confirms proceeds fund expansion with no equity dilution; the ₹87 crore borrowing rise (₹189cr→₹276cr) occurred at FY26 year-end as project-specific land-systems working capital, returning from Q2 FY27.
2. Defence forecast visibility - ₹4,557 crores to be executed before FY30 On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said defence forecast visibility of ₹4,557 crores would be executed before FY30, approximately 3 years, with possible spillover in the fourth year. In Q1 FY27, assured forecast visibility stood at ₹4,557 crores after Q1 execution, with execution ongoing.
3. Non-core divestment - resolution by March end FY26 Partial - At the Q3 FY26 call, management said the noncore divestment was "very much on track... Definitely by next investor call, we should be able to share all the details" for resolution by March end. Definitive agreements were signed on 26 May 2026 to divest heavy engineering, energy and automotive engineering services to Akkodis, with Phase 2 (aerospace engineering services) signed on 12 June 2026 - roughly two months past the March-end target.
4. EPS growth - 40-50% each year for FY26 and FY27 Missed - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided EPS growth of nearly 40% to 50% each year for FY26 and FY27, with EPS of around ₹25-26 expected for FY26. FY26 normalized PAT closed at ₹83 crores, up only 27.6% YoY, with Q4 PAT of ₹0.4 crores - well short of the guided EPS growth and the \~₹25-26 target.
5. XiDA business transfer - close by Q1 FY27 Delivered - At the Q1 FY27 call, management committed to delivering the XiDA acquisition (business transfer) by that quarter. In Q1 FY27, the XiDA business was acquired by transfer and contributed from its first quarter at a 46.2% margin, with revenue of ₹49.5 crores, up 63% YoY.
6. Deferred FY26 revenue - ₹142 crores recovered across Q2 and Q3 FY27 On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said of the \~₹140-142 crore revenue deferred out of FY26, over ₹60 crores was recovered in Q1 and the rest over the next 2 quarters. Approximately ₹64 crores of the ₹142 crore deferred revenue was recognised in Q1 FY27, with the balance expected across Q2 and Q3.
7. ADD Solutions exit - closure by Q4 FY27 On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said ADD Solutions, a non-core European unit with a ₹4.8 crore EBITDA loss in Q1, would be exited with closure targeted by Q4 of FY27. In Q1 FY27, ADD Solutions recorded a ₹4.8 crore EBITDA loss and ₹6.7 crore PAT loss, with the exit still in progress.
8. Aerospace acquisition - close in Q2 FY27, ₹180 crores revenue, ₹39 crores EBITDA On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said the aerospace acquisition (AS9100-certified precision manufacturer, NBO signed) was in advanced due diligence, expected to complete in Q2, with annualized FY27 revenue of about ₹180 crores and EBITDA of ₹39 crores at 22% margin. The Q1 FY27 PPT confirmed the close was expected in Q2 FY27.
9. Extraordinary gain - \~₹1,255 crores on divestment completion On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said an extraordinary gain of approximately ₹1,255 crores would be recorded on completion of the divestment transaction, in Q2-Q3. In Q1 FY27, \~₹200+ crores was expected in Q2 on the August Phase-1 closing, with the balance between Q2 and early Q3.
10. FY27 EBITDA - ₹270 crores On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management reiterated EBITDA of ₹270 crores for FY27. Q1 FY27 normalized EBITDA was ₹41 crores; the full-year FY27 outcome is not yet due.
11. FY27 revenue - trending towards ₹1,377 crores On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided consolidated FY27 revenue "trending towards" ₹1,377 crore, a 52% growth on the retained-business base of ₹903 crore in FY26; at the Q1 FY27 call and in the PPT this was reiterated on a continuing-operations pro forma annualized basis. Q1 FY27 retained revenue was ₹183 crores, +94% YoY.
12. Power 930 path - invest \~$200 million before beginning of FY27 Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management said the Power 930 path involved investing about $200 million (\~₹1,500 crores) in infrastructure before the beginning of FY27; later revisions set capex at ₹1,100-1,200 crores over three years and total capex plus acquisitions at ₹2,100-2,250 crores. FY26 saw ₹96 crore invested in facilities and Q1 FY27 PP&E plus CWIP rose ₹40.1 crore.
13. 40% CAGR in core revenue to FY28, EBITDA margin \~19.5% Pending - At the Q1 FY26 call, management set the objective of 40% CAGR revenue growth in core verticals over three fiscal years to FY28, leading to an EBITDA margin of around 19.5%, later reiterated for FY26-FY27 with acceleration to over 70% for FY28-FY30. FY26 core revenue reached \~904 crores, with aerospace up 21% and defense up 25%, and FY27 guidance of 52% growth; the FY28 horizon remains live, so the outcome is not yet settled.
14. FY26 revenue - around 25% growth, 300 bps margin improvement Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided around 25% growth in revenue (core and non-core) and 300 bps improvement in EBITDA margin over the previous year, net of ESOP cost. FY26 revenue grew 12.4% and EBITDA margin improved 150 bps.
15. Power 930 - ₹9,000 crores revenue by 2030 On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management set the aspirational target of $1 billion revenue by 2030 ("Power 930"), restated at the Q1 FY26 call as ₹9,000 crores, called "a clear, non-negotiable target" at Q4 FY26 and "absolutely firm" at Q1 FY27. FY26 revenue was ₹1,159 crores and Q1 FY27 retained revenue was ₹183 crores; the 2030 horizon is not reached.
16. Revenue mix inversion - 80% service / 20% product to 20:80 by FY28 On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management stated that by FY28 the company aims to invert its revenue mix from 80% service / 20% product to the reverse; at the Q3 FY26 call, management said the mix was then 39% products vs 61% services and would flip the same percentage by '27. Q1 FY27 continuing business mix was not fully disclosed and the flip was not confirmed as achieved.
17. ESAI - more than 60% growth in FY26 Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided ESAI growth of "more than 60%". FY26 ESAI revenue was ₹136 crores, +9% YoY.
18. Defense - about 75% growth in FY26 Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected defense to grow at about 75% moving forward, revised at the Q1 FY26 call to over 40% YoY growth in core areas. FY26 defence revenue was ₹379 crores, +25% YoY.
19. Aerospace - at least 35% revenue growth in FY26 Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management committed to at least 35% revenue growth in aerospace in FY26. FY26 aerospace revenue was ₹388 crores, +21% YoY.
20. FY26 golden rule - minimum 50% EBITDA growth excluding ESOP cost Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management set a "golden rule" for FY26: a minimum EBITDA growth of 50% excluding ESOP cost, with PAT increasing proportionally; revisions pointed to over 40% core growth at Q1 FY26 and about 45% at Q2 FY26. FY26 EBITDA was ₹178 crores vs FY25 adjusted EBITDA of ₹156 crores - 14% growth on adjusted basis and 25% on reported.
21. Headcount - same or reduce Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management stated total headcount will remain the same or reduce - "we are not going to increase any manpower. It can be reduced". Q4 FY25 total FTE was 2,891; at Q4 FY26 post-restructuring headcount was to fall from 2,800 to roughly 1,200, and by Q1 FY27 employee cost fell from 53% to 44% of revenue.
22. EBITDA - 1.5x FY25 in FY26, 300 bps margin improvement Missed - At the Q3 FY25 call, management guided that if total company EBITDA is X in FY25, it will be 1.5x by FY26, with EBITDA percentage at least 300 bps higher; this was restated as minimum 50% EBITDA growth excluding ESOP cost at Q4 FY25 and \~25% revenue growth with 300 bps margin improvement at Q1 FY26. FY25 EBITDA was ₹142 crores reported (₹156 crores adjusted) and FY26 EBITDA was ₹178 crores - 25% growth reported, 14% adjusted - with margin improving 150 bps from 13.8% to 15.3%.
23. Bangalore airport cold-shell facility - ready by February end, move-in by June 1 Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management stated the Bangalore airport cold-shell facility would be ready by February end with move-in planned by end of May / first of June - "Definitely... we'll definitely move by June 1". By Q2 FY26 the Devanahalli Aeroland facility of about 165,000 sq ft was ready with a portion operational, and by Q1 FY27 DAL was commissioned on schedule and fully functional.
24. Semiconductor revenue - tend towards \~₹125 crores in FY25 Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management said semiconductor revenue for the year was expected to tend towards last year's \~₹125 crores, but at a much larger EBITDA margin. FY25 ESAI revenue was ₹125 crores with ESAI EBITDA of ₹30 crores at 23.9% margin.
25. Heavy engineering - positive margin by end of FY25 Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management was confident that by the end of the year the company "will have a positive margin to report" from heavy engineering. FY25 heavy engineering EBITDA was -₹6 crores at -4.2% margin, and Q4 FY25 EBITDA was -₹4 crores at -9.9% margin.
26. Automotive EBITDA - turn positive from Q4 FY25 Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management said the automotive vertical's EBITDA, negative ₹6 crores in H1, was expected to turn positive from Q4 of the year. FY25 automotive EBITDA was -₹2 crores and Q4 FY25 automotive EBITDA was -₹1 crore.
27. Defence to grow to \~60% of revenues in 12-18 months Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management said the defence business would grow from \~30% currently to about 60% of revenues in the next 12-18 months, framed as an "ambition"/"vision" rather than formal guidance. Defence was \~34% of revenue in Q3 FY25, \~23% of core revenue in Q1 FY26, and ₹379 crores of ₹1,159 crores (\~33%) in FY26.
28. Zero net debt - in next 2 to 3 quarters Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, the CFO's "endeavour is to be a zero net debt company in the next 2 to 3 quarters". Q3 FY25 net debt was ₹35.5 crores and Q4 FY25 net debt was \~₹15 crores excluding lease liabilities, but Q1 FY26 net debt was \~₹50 crores.
29. Rebranding - AXISCADES Mistral Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management reiterated the company would be rebranded as AXISCADES Mistral, pending regulatory and statutory approvals. The Board approved withdrawal of the application for the name change to AXISCADES Mistral Technologies Limited.
30. Mistral production order revenue - close to ₹200 crores in FY25 Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected Mistral production order revenue to get "close to about ₹200 crores next year", roughly doubling from ₹112 crores; guidance was revised to \~₹171 crores at Q1 FY25 and "somewhere close to ₹170 crores" at Q2 FY25. FY25 defence production was around ₹196 crores.
31. Debt repayment - minimum ₹50 crores in September 2024 Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, the company said it "will further retire a minimum amount of ₹50 crores in September of 2024" from QIP proceeds, reiterated at the Q1 FY25 call. In Q2 FY25, ₹52 crores of long-term debt was repaid from QIP proceeds.
32. Finance cost - reduce by about 50% in FY25 Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided finance cost to reduce by about 50% in FY25 vs ₹55.76-56.37 crores in FY24. FY25 finance cost was ₹32 crores, a reduction of \~43% from ₹56 crores.
33. FY25 EBITDA margin - about 15% to 15.5% Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided EBITDA margin of "about 15% or anywhere in the range of 15% to 15.5%... this year" (FY25). FY25 reported EBITDA margin was 13.8% and adjusted EBITDA margin was 15%.
34. FY23-FY26 targets - double revenue to \~$200M / ₹1,600 crores, triple PAT to ₹160-180 crores Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management reiterated its FY23-FY26 targets: double revenue from \~$100M in FY23 to \~$200M / \~₹1,600 crores by FY26 and triple PAT to ₹160-180 crores - "we are still gunning for that". Later, at Q2 FY25, management said it would "relook at this and come back" as automotive headwinds "will certainly delay this". FY26 revenue was ₹1,159 crores and PAT was ₹72 crores reported, ₹83 crores normalized.
35. Defence production EBITDA margin - upwards of 20% Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, the CFO targeted the defence business in production mode at an EBITDA margin upwards of 20%, later framed as tending towards 20% to 25% and at Q2 FY26 "not commit to anything more than 22%". FY24 defence production EBITDA was \~30%, FY25 was 22%, Q3 FY26 was 26.2%, and FY26 defence EBITDA margin was 22.9%.
36. Finance cost - moderate to ₹11-12 crores per quarter from Q2 FY24 Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided finance cost to moderate to around ₹11-12 crores per quarter from the ₹20 crores reported in Q1 FY24 at current borrowing levels, kicking in from Q2 FY24; this was reiterated at Q2 FY24 and extended to an FY25 finance cost of around ₹30-odd crores at Q1 FY25. Q2 FY24 finance cost was ₹11 crores and Q1 FY25 was ₹8.07 crores, with FY25 finance cost of ₹32 crores.
37. Heavy engineering - growth year in FY24 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management said FY24 should be a growth year for heavy engineering, with the Q1 FY24 call adding that the revenue decline was planned to be recovered within FY24. Heavy engineering revenue declined 11% in FY24 to ₹152 crores, and FY25 heavy engineering plus automotive de-grew 7% to ₹238 crores.
38. FY24 revenue growth - 18% to 20% Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided revenue growth of "anywhere between say 18% to 20% in FY24". FY24 consolidated revenue was ₹952 crores, +17% over FY23.
39. Performance-based ESOP vesting - 100% for CEO and CFO Pending - At the Q3 FY23 call, management said 100% of the ESOPs held by him and the CFO would be performance-based vesting, evaluated on top line, profitability/PBT and qualitative metrics, with the model cascaded down. At Q1 FY25, an ESOP provision reversal of \~₹10.82-12 crores coincided with old programs being rolled back and a new program being launched; at Q4 FY26, the entire 0.38 crore reserved ESOP shares were still to be awarded by Q1-Q2 FY27, with no source confirming vesting or settlement yet.
40. Automotive acquisition in Europe or North America Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management said "the plan is to definitely acquire something in automotive in Europe or North America. So that will happen". add Solution GmbH, a German automotive company, was acquired and consolidated from 1 August 2023, fulfilling the Europe partner need as stated at the Q1 FY24 call.
41. Working capital optimization and debt paydown in FY24 Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management said in FY24 the endeavour would be to optimize working capital, refinance, pay down debt and reduce the gap between EBITDA and free cash flows. Net borrowings reduced 60% from ₹214.37 crores to ₹84.52 crores by 31 March 2024.
42. No more exceptional charges on Mistral account Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management said there would be no more exceptional charges in the company's books on the Mistral account going forward, reiterated at the Q4 FY23 call. FY24 had no Mistral-related exceptional charges - the ₹3.17 crores Mistral Aero Electronics recalibration in Q2 FY24 was booked as operating items - and FY25's \~₹14 crores and FY26's ₹11.17 crores one-time items were unrelated to Mistral.
43. Debt refinancing - before end of FY23 Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, the CFO said debt refinancing was in process and would be in place before the end of the financial year, targeting significant cost savings; by Q4 FY23 the drawdown was expected "in the next couple of weeks". The company refinanced the entire \~₹215 crores of incremental high-cost debt and in March 2023 fully repaid the HDFC Bank foreign currency term loan, with ₹210 crores of high-cost debt refinanced by Q1 FY24.
44. Anti-drone order - first part complete by end of FY23, remaining 50 units in 6-8 months Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management said the first part of the anti-drone order would complete towards the end of the financial year, with the remaining 50 anti-drone units delivered in the next six to eight months; this was later revised to 60 units. 40 units were delivered by March 2024, 75 of 100 by Q3 FY25, and all 100 systems by FY25-end, within the revised Q2-Q3 FY25 window.
45. Normalized EBITDA margin - \~15% target Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, the CFO confirmed a normalized EBITDA margin of around 15% was "our target" going forward; this was raised over successive calls to \~20% in three years, then 18-19%, then "about 18% EBITDA margin by FY26". FY23 normalized EBITDA margin was 15.3%, FY25 adjusted was 15%, and FY26 was 15.3% - the 18% target by FY26 was not reached.
46. New verticals (automotive, energy, medical) - 25% of revenue in three years Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management said new verticals (automotive, energy, medical) could form 25% of revenue in three years, in response to an analyst's suggestion; the Q3 FY23 call restated that automotive and energy would form a significant portion of revenue in the next 2 to 3 years. Automotive and energy combined reached 13.1% in Q2 FY24, FY25 automotive plus heavy engineering was 23% with energy 4%, and medical was never mentioned again in the record.
47. Revenue growth - beyond industry growth rate Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management declined specific revenue guidance but said "we hope to grow at a much faster pace than how the industry is going" (industry 15-18%), noting last year's \~20% growth with hopes to exceed it; the objective to grow beyond industry rates was reiterated through later calls, with FY24 guided at 18-20% and FY25 better than the 14-15% industry rate. FY23 revenue grew 33.7%, FY24 17%, FY25 7.9% against a stated industry rate of 7.5%, and FY26 12.4%.
48. Primary capital raise - \~₹100 crores via preferential offer Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, the CFO planned to raise about ₹100 crores of primary capital via a preferential offer with Edelweiss mandated; the plan was consciously delayed at Q4 FY23, scaled to ₹150-200 crores during FY24 at Q2 FY24, and the QIP raised ₹220 crores at Q3 FY24, oversubscribed 8x. The QIP of ₹220 crores completed in January 2024 with net proceeds of ₹203.47 crores.
49. Explosoft merger/share-swap - complete by year end Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, the CFO said the Explosoft merger/share-swap NCLT process, originally due 30th November, was unlikely to meet that date but the entire merger process and share swap should be completed by the year end. Mistral Phase 2 was instead paid in cash with ₹215 crores of incremental debt taken due to tight arbitration timelines, and the Mistral acquisition concluded on 26 December 2022.