1. ₹2,500 crore open market buyback Delivered - In the Q1 FY23 Result, a buyback of equity shares up to ₹2,500 crores was announced under the open market route through stock exchange. The buyback closed on 10 October, well ahead of the 6-month stipulated period, mopping up over 64 lakh shares against the initial 54 lakh envisaged and covering the full ₹2,500 crores set aside.
2. 100% payout of FY26 profit - dividend plus buyback Delivered - At the Q4 FY26 call, the Board approved a payout of 100% of FY26 profits: a final dividend of ₹150 per share aggregating ₹4,192 crores plus a buyback of about ₹5,633 crores. In Q1 FY27, dividend plus buyback together meant ₹10,000 crores paid out to shareholders in July.
3. Exports highest ever top line in USD - FY26 Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management expected the Exports business to deliver its highest ever top line performance in USD terms this financial year. FY26 export revenue came in at ₹20,416 crore (up 25.6%) / USD 2,253 million (up 20.2%), the best annual performance since record FY2022 with all-time high revenues.
4. BACL AUM ₹18,000-19,000 crores by FY26-end Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, the CFO anticipated BACL would end the year with a book size (AUM) of anywhere between ₹18,000 to ₹19,000 crores. By Q4 FY26 the AUM was nearly ₹19,000 crores (roughly doubled), and it hit the ₹20,000 crores mark in Q1 FY27.
5. KTM turnaround - first results in CY2026 On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, the CFO stated it was their intention to get the KTM turnaround started once all approvals were in place, and to try to get at least the first set of results showing up in the next calendar year (CY2026). By Q4 FY26, manufacturing had been progressively ramped up through the year and was approaching underlying retail demand, with tighter cost control benefits becoming evident; management expects turnaround results to start showing up "in the latter part of 2026 itself".
6. KTM call option - exercise within 1 year till 31 May 2026 Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, the call option on Pierer Industries' 50.1% stake in PBAG could be exercised fully, in installments or combination, for the next 1 year essentially till 31 May 2026, at a fixed consideration of a maximum of Euro 50.65 million. Call option notices were served in June and on 6 November seeking full exercise, and effective change of control and share transfer was completed on 18 November.
7. KTM controlling stake acquisition - regulatory clearances in 2-3 months Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management intended to acquire a controlling stake in PBAG, with regulatory clearances expected perhaps in 2-3 months; at Q1 FY26 it expected the remaining merger-control approvals over the next couple of months, and by Q2 FY26 the European Commission outcome was expected by 10 November. Merger control approvals came from all 6 jurisdictions (last from Turkey on 18 September), the Austrian Takeover Commission cleared on 23 October, EC subsidy control approval arrived on 10 November, and change of control completed on 18 November.
8. Rare earth magnet approvals - coming weeks Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management hoped approvals to ship rare earth magnets from China would be secured by exporters in the coming weeks, warning that any delay or disruption would start to seriously impact production by July. HRE magnet non-availability began compromising production in June and July saw a 50% shortfall; Chetak suffered \~50% shortfall to plan, with supplies restored only by end of September.
9. Chetak leadership position - FY26 Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected Chetak initiatives to build a sustainable and profitable leadership position in FY26. Chetak share rose to 25% in Q4 FY25 making it the number one electric two-wheeler brand in India in Q4, was 21% in Q1 FY26, regained number 1 in Vahan registrations in October, and stood at \~23% in Q4 FY26.
10. Exports 15-20% YoY growth - every quarter Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected overall exports to continue to grow at 15% to 20% every quarter year on year, later reiterating sustained export momentum with 15%-20% growth. Exports BU volumes grew 16% in Q1 FY26, 24% in Q2, 18% YoY in Q3, and crossed 600,000 units for a second consecutive quarter, up 25% YoY, in Q4.
11. PLI capex commitment - ₹1,000 crores over 5 years On track - At the Q3 FY25 call, management stated that under PLI there is a commitment to deliver ₹1,000 crores of capex over a 5-year horizon with yearly rests, and that the company is delivering on it. FY25 saw ₹700 crores spent towards capex (about 60% towards the electric business) and FY26 capex was \~₹500 crores split equally between ICE and EV.
12. KTM reconstruction timeline - 25 February 2025 Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management stated the KTM reconstruction process had a definitive timeline of 25 February, after which revival of KTM exports from India should commence if the package was approved. KTM creditors accepted the restructuring plan in February, the quota of 30% of claims was paid by 23 May 2025 as required, and by Q1 FY26 KTM Austria operations including production had commenced, unlocking exports of KTM motorcycles from India.
13. Chetak profitability swing - Q4 FY25 Missed - At the Q3 FY25 call, management expected a major swing of Chetak into the profitability zone in Q4 as the 35-Series acquired scale beginning February. Chetak remained significantly margin dilutive in Q4 FY25; some models on the new platform moved to EBITDA positive only in Q1 FY26, and the electric portfolio hit double-digit EBITDA margin with Chetak models nearly EBITDA neutral by Q2 FY26.
14. E-rick launch - end of FY25 Partial - At the Q3 FY25 call, management intended to launch a modern e-Rick by the end of FY25, noting permissions might push retails into the first week of April with real scale-up in Q1 FY26; by Q4 FY25 the launch was pushed to early July under the GoGo brand, and by Q1 FY26 to a few key markets by middle of August. The E-Rick "Riki" was launched in Q2 FY26 with about 500 units sold in eight cities.
15. New Chetak platform - Q3 FY25, significant cost reduction Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management said the new Chetak platform coming out later that quarter (Q3 FY25) would significantly reduce costs, with line of sight on further cost reduction between Q3 and Q4. The Chetak 35 platform was launched end December with two variants introduced, and a third 35-series variant (3503) followed end May 2025.
16. BACL AUM ₹10,000 crores by FY25-end Partial - At the Q2 FY25 call, BACL AUM was expected to hit about ₹10,000 crores by the end of the financial year. The book ended Q4 FY25 with an AUM of about ₹9,500 crores.
17. Brazil plant capacity - 35,000 units per annum for FY26 Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, Brazil plant capacity was to be increased to the 35,000 units per annum level for FY26, with Board approval for further investments; by Q3 FY25 the plan was expanded to 50,000 units plus per annum in place by the final quarter of FY26, and by Q4 FY25 to 50,000 units by December 2025. Capacity had already expanded from 20,000 to 30,000 units by Q1 FY26 and reached 60,000 units per annum by Q4 FY26.
18. Chetak distribution - 4,000 stores by January 2025 Partial - At the Q2 FY25 call, Chetak distribution footprint was to be widened to about 4,000 stores by January, with 250 exclusive Chetak stores to continue. Wider distribution reached over 3,000 sales points by Q3 FY25, and by Q4 FY25 there were 310 Chetak experience centres and over 3,000 points of sale.
19. FY25 capex guidance - ₹700-800 crores Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, FY25 capex was guided in the range of ₹700 to ₹800 crores, largely towards commissioning the new electric 3-wheeler facility in Waluj and other electric capabilities. FY25 capex spent was ₹700 crores, about 60% towards the electric business.
20. Chetak number 2 position - sometime this year Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management said "our next stop is the number 2 position. And after that, we will see how to move towards leadership". Chetak was solidly number three, almost sharing number two in September, with share doubling from \~10% in Q2 FY24 to 19% in Q2 FY25, and rose to 25% in Q4 FY25 making it the number one electric two-wheeler brand in India in Q4.
21. Brazil top 3 international market - medium term On track - At the Q1 FY25 call, management expected Brazil to be amongst the top 3 international markets in the medium term. Bajaj Brazil recorded its highest ever retails of about 7,000 units in Q4 FY25, touched 7,000 units in Q1 FY26 and 8,000 in Q2, and reached nearly 10,000 units in Q4 FY26 with the number 5 position in April by share.
22. Chetak distribution - 500 stores by July 2024, 1,000 by September 2024 Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, Chetak distribution was laid out as 250 stores in June, 500 by end July and almost 1,000 by September. By Q2 FY25 the network was 250-odd exclusive Chetak stores plus about 3,000-odd shared stores.
23. 3-wheeler SBU - consistently breach 100,000 per quarter Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, the 3-wheeler SBU was expected to "consistently breach the 100,000 mark per quarter". CV delivered over 100K units in a quarter for the fourth time in Q1 FY25, clocked a highest-ever 140,000 units in Q2, a highest-ever retail of over 125,000 units in Q3, and reported highest ever volume in Q4 FY25.
24. Freedom 125 capacity - 10,000/month in Q2 FY25, 40,000/month by Q4 FY25 Partial - At the Q1 FY25 call, Freedom 125 capacity was to start at 10,000 units per month in Q2 and rise to 40,000 per month by Q4, revisable on market response; by Q2 FY25 the plan was 30,000 units per month in Q3 and 40,000 in Q4. Over 10,000 Freedoms were retailed until September with about 18,000-plus expected in October, almost 50,000 bikes were retailed since the August start by Q3 with \~16,000 units in October, and cumulative Freedom CNG retails reached 60,000 units by Q4 FY25.
25. BACL capital infusion - ₹2,250 crores Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, the Board approved a further capital infusion of ₹2,250 crores into Bajaj Auto Credit Limited, to be infused in a phased manner as BACL builds its business. ₹2,100 crores was invested in FY25, and by Q1 FY26 a further ₹300 crores took the cumulative investment to ₹2,700 crores.
26. BACL coverage - 100% by FY25-end Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said financing arm BACL coverage was about 35% and would progressively be increased to 100% during the year, concluding the year with 100% coverage of the country; by Q1 FY25 rollout was \~50% and on track for 100% by March '25, and by Q2 FY25 on track for 100% by January '25. BACL completed its Pan-India rollout ahead of schedule in Q3 FY25, serving the entire two-wheeler and three-wheeler business of Bajaj Auto in India.
27. Triumph domestic network - 150 stores within H1 FY25 Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, the Triumph domestic network was to be scaled up to 150 stores within the first half of FY25. Triumph was present in 100 locations in Q1 FY25 and, with the network nearly doubled year on year, stood at 100 cities with 136 stores by Q2 FY25.
28. Chetak store count - 200 to 600 within H1 FY25 Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, the Chetak store count of 200 was to be increased to 600 within the first half of FY25. By Q1 FY25 the plan was 250 stores in June, 500 by end July and almost 1,000 by September, but by Q2 FY25 the network stood at 250-odd exclusive Chetak stores plus about 3,000-odd shared stores.
29. CNG bike launch - world's first, halving commuting expenses Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management committed to launch the world's first CNG bike, which would halve the commuting expenses of the common man, targeting the mileage-conscious 100cc-125cc commuter segment. The Freedom 125 was launched in Q1 FY25 as the world's first CNG bike, with bookings of \~4,200.
30. Six Pulsar models in H1 FY25 Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management committed six further Pulsar models in H1 of FY25, beginning with the biggest Pulsar in early May. Only the NS400Z launched in Q1 FY25 and a sporty 125cc Pulsar in Q2; the N125, Pulsar 160 twin-disc and RS200 upgrades rolled out December-March, with six new Pulsar variants launched only in Q4 FY25.
31. FY25 exports better than FY24 Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected FY25 to be better than FY24 in export volume and "much better in revenue terms", despite a cautious view of stressed markets. FY25 exports rebounded to double-digit volume and revenue growth, with revenue <$100m away from the FY22 record high, and export volume grew 20% in Q4 FY25.
32. Triumph capacity - 10,000 to 20,000 then 30,000 during FY25 Partial - At the Q3 FY24 call, management said Triumph capacity, including exports, was currently 10,000 and would go up to 20,000 and then progressively to 30,000 during the course of the year. Triumph crossed 60,000 units and ₹1,200 crores of revenue in its first year by Q1 FY25, and Q2 FY25 domestic sales were close to 10,000 units, up 50% over Q1, but the specific capacity milestones are not confirmed in our record.
33. Chetak exports - 3-horizon approach, entries within 9 months Partial - At the Q3 FY24 call, management outlined a 3-horizon approach for Chetak exports - markets identified for entry within the next 9 months, a cluster of countries beyond 9 to 18 months, and a horizon 3 beyond 18 months - with some solid entries expected in the first half of the new fiscal year. By Q1 FY27, exports had commenced but remained limited to neighbouring countries in the Indian subcontinent, with Chetak on its way to the Philippines and a couple of other markets.
34. Chetak 15,000 monthly volumes - Q4 FY24 Partial - At the Q3 FY24 call, management was targeting Chetak to breach the 15,000 mark (monthly volumes) in Q4 FY24. Chetak volumes were up 4x YoY in Q4 FY24, and by Q1 FY25 Chetak was solidly number three and number two in billing terms in June, with quarterly volumes of \~40,000 units implying \~13,000/month.
35. Export volume build-back - 200,000 units per quarter Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management aimed to build back export volumes to the heydays of \~200,000 units per quarter, inching up quarter by quarter, though this "could still be some time away". Export volumes were down 4% YoY in Q3 FY24 and flattish QoQ but up 20% YoY in Q4, exports grew \~16% to \~$460 million in Q1 FY25 and 24% with over 550,000 units in Q2 FY25, and exports crossed 600,000 units per quarter after 15 quarters by Q3 FY26.
36. Triumph capacity expansion - 10,000 units/month by FY24-end Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management said Triumph capacity of 5,000-7,000 units per month was being expanded and should go up to about 10,000 units per month by the time the company exits FY24. By Q3 FY24, Triumph capacity was 10,000, with plans to increase to 20,000 and then progressively to 30,000 during the year.
37. Electric 3-wheeler scale-up - phased from September 2023 Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management expected to start scaling up the electric 3-wheeler business from September onwards in a phased manner, prioritizing large markets where ICE 3-wheelers are not permitted. Electric three-wheelers launched in Agra in Q2 FY24 and captured almost 70% market share there within the quarter, the footprint expanded to 23 cities with December volumes over 1,800 units by Q3 FY24, and by Q4 FY24 EV 3-wheelers were available in 60 cities with 30% market share in addressed markets.
38. EV-related capex FY24 - ₹400-500 crores Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management guided EV-related capex of ₹400 crores to ₹500 crores to be spent in the course of the year. FY24 gross capex was about ₹700-800 crores, directed at electric 2-wheelers, electric 3-wheelers and premium motorcycles.
39. Triumph exports - commence October 2023 Partial - At the Q1 FY24 call, management said Triumph exports would commence in October; by Q2 FY24 this had shifted to end of that month or the first days of November, and then to between December and January. Triumph exports commenced in Q3 FY24 with over 6,000 bikes to multiple international destinations, and over 19,000 bikes had been exported to 57 countries by Q4 FY24.
40. Brazil Manaus plant - production within 12 months Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, the Board approved setting up a manufacturing unit by Bajaj Brazil in Manaus SEZ, with management expecting the capacity to come on stream within 12 months; by Q3 FY24 production was hoped for by end of Q1 FY25, and by Q4 FY24 by June 2024. The new Brazil plant commenced production in June 2024, commissioned end of June in Manaus.
41. Triumph launch - global launch 27 June 2023 Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management committed that the jointly developed Triumph motorcycle lineup would be launched globally in London on 27 June by Triumph UK, with retail sales commencing "sometime thereafter" and products made at the new Chakan facility. Triumph Speed 400 deliveries commenced by end of July 2023, with over 17,000 bookings as of the morning of the Q1 FY24 call from 15 dealership centres and dispatches commenced the day before the call.
42. Chetak 10,000 units/month run-rate - aspiration maintained Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management said the Chetak 10,000 units/month run-rate aspiration "is still there. There is no reduction in the aspiration", with portfolio additions over the next 6 months to be tested against that level; the aspiration was later softened to a "wait and see" post-FAME at Q1 FY24, then pushed as breaching 10,000 in Q2 FY24 and 15,000 in Q4 FY24. Chetak crossed the 10,000 mark in Q3 FY23, reached the 10,000 mark in Q3 FY24 with retail share up from 4% in FY23 to 14% in December, and volumes were up 4x YoY in Q4 FY24.
43. Full-year capex FY23 - ₹750-odd crores Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, the CFO guided full-year capex of about ₹750-odd crores, directed mainly at the EV 2-wheeler facility, the EV 3-wheeler facility at Waluj, a new site at Chakan for premium motorcycles, and routine capex. FY23 capex came in over ₹1,000 crores including Chetak Technology.
44. Domestic 3-wheeler volumes - 20,000 to 25,000 units per month Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management said that once supply resumed, after an initial stock-replenishment surge, domestic 3-wheeler volumes should get back to the original level of between 20,000 to 25,000 units per month. The three-wheeler business recorded a record quarterly volume of 132,000 units in Q2 FY23 with September sales crossing 50,000 units, domestic market share was 76% in Q3 FY23, the business recovered to 109% of pre-COVID levels by Q4 FY23, and monthly volumes consistently exceeded 40,000 units by Q3 FY24.
45. Chetak sales doubling - Q2 FY23 over Q1 FY23 Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management said they were aiming to more than double sales of Chetak in the coming quarter (Q2 FY23). Chetak volumes grew over 50%, from about 6,200 units in Q1 to almost 10,000 units in Q2 FY23.
46. Chetak Technology Akurdi plant capacity - 0.05 crore units, scalable Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management said the new Chetak Technology plant at Akurdi should have a capacity of 0.05 crore units (500,000 units), sufficient for the short term of 18 to 24 months, and scalable at minimal cost and effort. The new plant was commissioned by Chetak Technology Limited in Akurdi in record time in Q1 FY23.
47. Electric three-wheeler launch - limited launch by June 2022, commercial launch by FY23-end Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management said electric three-wheelers would be launched in a limited way by end of that quarter (June 2022) in a couple of cities only, observed for three months, then expanded to 10-15 cities; the timeline later shifted to trials completed by end of CY2022 with commercial launch before FY23-end, selective market launches by end of March 2023, and a limited launch of both passenger and cargo versions by end of April 2023 pending FAME certification. Trials commenced in Pune and Delhi in Q1 FY23, field testing was completed by Q4 FY23 with production commenced, and electric 3-wheelers were introduced in Agra (passenger) and Pune (cargo) in Q1 FY24, capturing almost 70% market share in Agra within Q2 FY24.
48. Double international business in five years - FY2027 horizon On track - At the Q4 FY22 call, management stated a five-year objective (counting five years from two years back) to double the international business, based largely on deepening share in existing markets and entering new markets like Brazil, Europe and ASEAN; at Q1 FY23 this was reiterated as doubling exports in 5 years ("it could take 4 years or it could take 6 years"), with more than 50% from market share gains, \~25% from new geographies and another quarter from penetration growth. Export revenue was just over $2 billion in FY22 and reached USD 2,253 million by FY26 - up only \~12% from FY22 - with FY25 export revenue still "<$100m away from the FY22 record high".
49. Export business double-digit growth - FY2023 Missed - At the Q4 FY22 call, management expected to deliver double digit growth in the export business unit for FY2023, continuing the over-200,000 units/month run-rate; the plan was later framed as \~10% export growth with recovery expected in 4-5 months, Q3 better than Q2, and normalcy returning around May or June. FY23 export volumes declined sharply - Q3 overseas volumes fell 25-35%, exports trailed retails for the last 15 months with channel stock downsizing, and export volumes fell to \~115,000 units in Q4 FY23 against the over-200,000 units/month run-rate.