1. 50% productivity increase at plant over next 3-4 years On track - In the FY23 annual report, management targeted a 50% productivity increase at the plant over the next 3-4 years. Quarterly improvements followed - 8% Guwahati and 34% Paonta Sahib in Q4 FY24, 6% and 17% in Q4 FY25 - with the window running to FY26/FY27.
2. Growth Portfolio to Rs.500 crore over next 3 years On track - At the Q4 FY26 PPT, management aspired to take the Growth Portfolio from INR 225 crore annual sales to Rs.500 crore over the next 3 years, with the FY26 annual report aiming to double its scale in three years. Q1 FY27 saw high single-digit sequential growth, with the window open.
3. Banjara's deal to scale distribution in five southern states \~3x On track - At the Q3 FY25 call, management expected the Banjara's deal to scale distribution in five southern states \~3x, from \~27,000-28,000 to \~80,000 outlets. Integration progressed from a pilot in Q1 FY26 to two states by Q3 FY26 and completed team integration by Q1 FY27.
4. Banjara's scaled up substantially in next 2 years Pending - At the Q3 FY25 call, management said Banjara's, then at \~50-55 crores annual revenue, could "in the next 2 years be scaled up substantially" in its southern market. The Q1 FY26 call reiterates focus on scaling Banjara's in the South, but the cited pages contain no Banjara's revenue or growth outcome data; the 2-year horizon (to \~early FY27) remains unverified as of Q1 FY27.
5. Banjara's balance 51% acquisition in coming 3-4 months Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management said the balance 51% stake in Banjara's would be acquired "in the coming 3-4 months", later pinning it to Q1 FY26 and "this month itself" for 100% control. The balance 51% was completed in Q1 FY26, making VPCL a fully owned subsidiary.
6. Triple-digit growth in quick commerce Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management targeted triple-digit growth in quick commerce. Actual growth was 42% YoY in Q2 FY25, 72% in Q3 FY25 and 60% in Q4 FY25 - strong, but never triple-digit.
7. Project Aarohan national rollout after 5-month pilot Pending - At the Q1 FY25 call, management committed to taking Project Aarohan across the country after a 5-month pilot in two key states. By Q3 FY25 it was operational across UP and MP, with Phase-2 planned to cover all other major states over the next four quarters; cited pages give no confirmation of the national rollout's completion.
8. Project Aarohan - 1.4x improvement in outlet reaching in retail urban Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management expected Project Aarohan to deliver \~1.4x improvement in retail urban outlet reaching and \~1.1-1.2x in high-potential rural villages. Direct reach in UP expanded from 42.4K to \~58.6K outlets (\~1.4x) and MP from 15K to 24K (\~1.6x) by Q3 FY25.
9. Geotagging/fencing pilot extended across country in phases Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said the geotagging/fencing pilot would be extended across the country in phases. All 3.3 lakh urban outlets were geotagged and geofenced by Q3 FY25, and FY26 closed with 100% urban and 70-80% rural coverage.
10. ADHO repositioning to show impact by this year itself Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management said ADHO repositioning for new-age customers would show impact "by this year itself" (FY25). ADHO declined through most of FY25 - low single-digit in Q2, single-digit in Q3 - before a 3% growth in Q4 FY25.
11. Buyback of INR 166.5 crores Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management announced a buyback of INR 166.5 crores. The specific FY24 buyback is not explicitly confirmed as completed in our record, but a buyback of Rs.186.6 crore was completed in FY26.
12. Double-digit growth for FY25 Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management targeted double-digit growth for FY25. By Q1 FY25 this was reset to 6-7% value growth "seems to be little doable, we would be targeting a little higher". FY25 consolidated sales declined 1.9%.
13. ADHO to grow at mid-single-digit CAGR over next two-three years On track - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided ADHO to a mid-single-digit CAGR over the next two-three years. After FY25 declines, ADHO returned to 4% growth in Q1 FY26 and grew in the twenties on a full-year FY26 basis; with the guided horizon running to roughly FY27, the CAGR outcome is not yet settled.
14. NPD success benchmark - INR 50 crores over three years Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management set an NPD success benchmark of INR 50 crores revenue over a three-year period for GT/MT/e-commerce products. The coconut business crossed Rs.100 crores by Q3 FY25 and the Growth Portfolio surpassed Rs.225 crore in FY26.
15. Direct-reach target of about 10 lakh outlets long-term On track - At the Q2 FY24 call, management gave a long-term aspirational direct-reach target of "about 10 lakh" outlets. Total direct plus indirect reach stood at \~8.5 lakh outlets in Q4 FY24 and direct coverage reached \~6 lakh by Q3 FY26, with the horizon still open.
16. At least double-digit growth for next year in volume Missed - At the Q2 FY24 call, management stated an aspiration of "at least a double-digit growth for the next year" in volume. FY25 volumes fell 6.7% in Q1 FY25 and grew just 1.1% in Q2 FY25, with no double-digit outcome for the year.
17. Modern trade + e-commerce saliency to 20%-22% in near short term Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management expected modern trade plus e-commerce saliency, then \~17%, to reach "between 20% to 22%" in the near short term. Organized trade hit \~20% by Q3 FY24 and 24% of business by Q4 FY24.
18. EBITDA margin 18% to 20% for FY24 Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 call, management reiterated EBITDA margin guidance of 18% to 20% for FY24, revised through the year to "closer to 18%" and then 16%-18% near to medium term. FY24 EBITDA margin came in at 17.1%, within the revised 16%-18% range.
19. New product range (third range) to come out this year Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management said a new product range with higher gross margins would come out "this year" (FY24). Bajaj 100% pure henna launched in Q1 FY24 and Gulab Jal in Q2 FY24, forming the ethnic range.
20. New product gross margins not below 40%-45% Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management committed that any new products launched would not have gross margins below 40%-45%, later citing 45%-50% for most launches. AD extension products carried gross margins upwards of 55% in Q2 FY25 and Banjara's \~60%, with no sub-40% product disclosed.
21. Gross margin dilution of \~4.2-4.3% to flow back Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management expected \~4.2-4.3% of gross margin dilution from RM prices to flow back as raw material prices stabilize. Gross margin recovered from \~53% in FY23 - 54% in Q4 FY23, 54.7% in Q4 FY24 - to 63.6% in Q4 FY26 and 61.8% in Q1 FY27.
22. Almond Drops extension category to 10-15 products over three to five years On track - At the Q3 FY23 call, management planned to build the Almond Drops extension category into 10-15 products over three to five years. Seven Almond Drops products were launched by Q1 FY25, and the range grew 73% in Q4 FY25, within the open window.
23. NPD contribution to rise to about 40% or higher over longer-term On track - At the Q2 FY23 call, management guided NPD contribution from \~12% to "about 40% or even higher" long-term, later reset to 40% in the next 4-5 years. Non-ADHO contribution rose from 12% in FY23 to 17% in FY24 and \~20% by Q4 FY25, with the horizon open.
24. Almond Drops premium personal care portfolio expansion over next two-three years Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management committed to expanding the Almond Drops premium personal care portfolio "over the next two, three years". The portfolio grew from the soap launch in Q1 FY23 to seven products by Q1 FY25, including body lotion, anti-hairfall shampoo, conditioner and Ultralight Body Lotion.
25. Modern trade + e-commerce to 15% mark Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management aimed for modern trade plus e-commerce to touch "more than 15%" of sales. Combined saliency was \~14% in Q1 FY23 (8% modern trade, 6% e-commerce) and reached \~18% by Q2 FY23.
26. Enter skin care category by FY23 Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management said the company would start entering categories beyond hair care into skin care "by this year" (FY23). Almond Drops Moisturizing Soap launched in June FY23, followed by body lotion and anti-hair fall shampoo in Q1 FY24.
27. Significant change in new product contribution in FY23 Delivered - At the Q4 FY22 call, management said "this year you should see a significant change" in new product contribution, with ADHO then \~90%. FY23 new product sales doubled to INR 113 crores, reaching 12% of overall sales, while ADHO fell to \~86%.
28. Wholesale regain to pre-COVID levels in FY23 Partial - At the Q4 FY22 call, management said regaining wholesale to pre-COVID levels was a focus area for FY23. Wholesale grew \~9.8% in Q1 FY23 and turned positive by Q3 FY23, reaching \~25% of channel mix in Q4 FY23, though the record does not confirm a return to pre-COVID levels.
29. FY23 EBITDA margin closer to 20% but below; 20% plus in FY24 Missed - At the Q3 FY22 call, management expected FY23 EBITDA margin "closer to 20%, but still remaining below 20%", with 20% plus returning in FY24. FY23 EBITDA margin was 15.6% and FY24 was 17.1%, both below the stated levels.
30. Almond Drops premium range - 3 products by end of April Partial - At the Q3 FY22 call, management said about 3 products in the Almond Drops premium hair and skin care range would come in both mass and omnichannel formats within 2 months or by end of April. Only Almond + Argan oil launched in March 2022; the Serum in Oil and Argan Oil e-commerce launches and the Moisturizing Soap came only in Q1 FY23 (June 2022).
31. Natyv Soul full range launch by Q4 FY22 with 20-30 products Partial - At the Q2 FY22 call, management planned the Natyv Soul full range launch by "about quarter four" with about 20 to 30 products. Natyv Soul soft-launched in Q2 FY22, with four variants in Q3 FY22 and five more in Q4 FY22, reaching nine products by Q1 FY23 - short of the 20-30 target.
32. Bajaj Amla to reach \~100 crores in next two years Missed - At the Q2 FY22 call, management said Bajaj Amla would turn EBITDA neutral/breakeven at about 60-70 crores of revenue, targeting about 100 crores "in the next two years or so". Amla grew 47% YoY in Q1 FY23 but was deliberately deprioritized by Q3 FY24 as the lowest gross margin category, with no Rs.100 crore disclosure.
33. International results in four to five quarters Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management said "in medium term which may be four to five quarters from now, you will see some results in international". International grew 17.6% in Q3 FY22, Bangladesh grew 36% in Q4 FY22 and 55% in FY22, and international grew \~60% in Q2 FY23.
34. Retail vs wholesale mix to 50:50 Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management said the retail vs wholesale mix, then 40:60, would be pushed to 50:50 by upping retail. Parity was reached by Q4 FY22 at 25% retail, 25% wholesale and 50% rural, holding at 25:25 in Q4 FY23.
35. Central zone and wholesale degrowth neutralized by Q2 FY22 Missed - At the Q1 FY22 call, management expected the temporary degrowth in central zone and wholesale to be neutralized "by Q2" FY22. The wholesale channel posted a double-digit decline in Q2 FY22, and over-index markets including Bihar, UP and parts of central India severely declined.
36. Supply-chain cost savings of Rs.5-6 crores Delivered - At the Q1 FY22 call, management expected roughly Rs.5-6 crores of pure cost benefit from \~20 supply-chain cost-saving initiatives. Manufacturing and supply-chain initiatives saved about Rs.5.9 crores through 2021, and cost-saving initiatives delivered Rs.6 crores in FY24 and nearly Rs.6 crores in FY25.
37. Rs.100 crore brands over three to five years Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management aimed to build Rs.100 crore brands over three to five years, later citing confidence in three such brands and Amla at \~100 crores. The coconut business crossed Rs.100 crores by Q3 FY25, running \~Rs.120 crore annualized, and the Growth Portfolio surpassed Rs.225 crore in FY26.
38. Price increase in Q1 FY22 Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management said "most likely we might take a price increase this quarter". An MRP increase of about 2.5% was taken in Q1 FY22, taking the total hike across Q4 FY21 and Q1 FY22 to close to about 3%.
39. Gross margin to normalize by Q2 FY22 Missed - At the Q4 FY21 call, management expected gross margin to normalize by Q2 FY22. Gross margin was 58.66% in Q1 FY22 and 59.1% in Q2 FY22, staying well below the pre-inflation 60.6% of Q4 FY21 through the year.
40. New-category plays to deliver positive sustainable EBITDA in three years Partial - At the Q4 FY21 call, management said new-category plays should deliver positive, sustainable EBITDA "in three years' time". By Q1 FY23 one or two newer products were EBITDA-positive on a marginal costing basis, but by Q2 FY25 some still lacked positive EBITDA, and the Growth Portfolio turned net contribution positive with single-digit margins by Q4 FY26.
41. Double the revenue of the organization over a period of time On track - At the Q4 FY21 call, management set the strategic target to "double the revenue of the organization over the period of time", later dated to FY28-29. Revenue grew from Rs.865.5 crore in FY22 to Rs.1,153.4 crore in FY26 and Rs.342 crore in Q1 FY27, leaving the FY28-29 target open.
42. MAT benefit / low effective tax rate (\~17%) for next three to four years Pending - At the Q4 FY21 call, in response to a question on the \~17% tax rate, management said MAT would continue for about another three to four years, and at Q4 FY23 confirmed the tax rate for FY24 and FY25 "should be the same and continue with MAT". The Guwahati GST/MAT benefit was stated to run till 2027,
43. Employee cost as % of sales to trend down continuously Partial - At the Q4 FY21 call, management set a target for employee cost as a percentage of sales to trend down on a continuous basis, achievable even in FY22. The ratio rose 12%-13% on average through FY25 but declined from 13.8% in Q1 FY26 to 10.8% in Q4 FY26 and 10.5% in Q1 FY27.
44. New premium hair care launches - ecommerce-only, adjacent personal care for GT, around Q4 FY22 Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management said new premium hair care launches would be ecommerce-only, with adjacent personal care extensions also for general trade, possibly "about Q4" FY22. Natyv Soul soft-launched in Q2 FY22 and scaled through Q4 FY22, Bajaj 100% Pure launched with three variants in Q3 FY22, and Almond Drops extensions followed through June FY23.
45. E-commerce to reach 5% of turnover Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management said ecommerce should go to about 5% of turnover "in as quick time as possible" from \~3%. E-commerce was \~6% by Q1 FY23 and \~9% by Q2 FY23, scaling to \~13% in Q2 FY25 and growing in the strong 20s through Q1 FY27.
46. EBITDA margin - 25% to 28% going forward Delivered - At the Q4 FY21 call, management set a goal of EBITDA margins "hovering between 25% to 28%", revised repeatedly down to 16%-18% before a Q1 FY26 shift toward the low-to-mid-20s. After years in the 13%-18% band, margins reached 23.7% in Q4 FY26 and 24.7% in Q1 FY27, meeting the latest target.
47. International business - focus from next year onwards On track - At the Q2 FY21 call, management said international would become a focus area "maybe next year onwards", later targeted at 20%-25% of contribution long-term and 20% salience over five years from FY24. Salience rose from \~2-3% to \~5-7% by Q3 FY25, with recent declines in FY26 and a strong Q1 FY27 rebound, leaving the 20% horizon open.
48. Uptown Leasing corporate-office project - no movement in next 2-3 quarters Delivered - At the Q2 FY21 call, management said "in the next two, three quarters unlikely any movement will happen" on the Uptown Leasing corporate-office project, with large-scale construction unlikely for one or two years. The Worli property was on hold in Q4 FY21 and remained "kept in abeyance" through Q2 FY24, with no construction disclosed through Q1 FY27.
49. Dividend policy - revert to one-third of profits Partial - At the Q2 FY21 call, management called the reduced dividend year an "aberration", and at Q4 FY21 committed "tentatively about one-third of our profits being issued as dividends", later restated as 40% to 60% of profits. FY21 paid Rs.10 per share (interim Rs.6 + final Rs.4), but the record holds no FY-end dividend disclosures for FY22-FY26, a period that included a Rs.186.6 crore buyback in FY26.
50. A&P spend to remain at \~18% of sales, possibly rising a few hundred bps Delivered - At the Q2 FY21 call, management said A&P spend, then \~18% of sales, "will remain thereabouts", revised over time to 16%-18% and by Q1 FY27 to operating in the historical 15%-16% zone. A&P tracked 16.7%-18.9% through FY23-FY24, then eased to 15.3% in Q4 FY25 and 14.6% in Q1 FY27, just below the latest zone.