1. FY24 AUM growth - 29-31% Delivered - At the Q1 FY24 PPT, management estimated AUM growth of 29-31% for FY24. FY24 AUM grew 34%.
2. LRS FY2030 targets - 200-220 MM customers, 120-130 MM cross-sell, ROE 19-21% On track - At the FY26 Annual Report, LRS FY2030 targets included customer franchise of 200-220 MM, cross-sell of 120-130 MM, ROE of 19-21%, AUM per cross-sell of ₹85,000-90,000 and PAT per cross-sell of ₹3,700-3,900. FY26 actuals were 119.33 MM customers, 75.51 MM cross-sell, 18.1% ROE, ₹67,500 AUM per cross-sell and ₹2,740 PAT per cross-sell.
3. FY27 ROE - 19-20% On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management continued to guide ROE of 19-20% for FY27. Q1 FY27 annualised ROE was 20.4%.
4. FY27 ROA - 4.4-4.6% On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management continued to guide ROA of 4.4-4.6% for FY27. Q1 FY27 annualised ROA was 4.7%.
5. FY27 credit cost - 145-160 bps On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided credit cost of 145-160 bps for FY27. Q1 FY27 loan loss to average AUF was 1.54%, or 1.31% excluding a ₹296 cr provision.
6. FY27 opex to NTI - improve 25-40 bps On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided continued improvement in opex to NTI of 25-40 bps in FY27; at the Q1 FY27 call it remained confident of 25-40 bps. Q1 FY27 opex to NTI was 33.4%, marginally higher than Q1 FY26's 33.1%.
7. FY27 NIM - marginal moderation On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management expected marginal moderation in NIM in FY27; at the Q1 FY27 call this was quantified at 10-15 bps for FY27. Q1 FY27 NIM remained steady.
8. FY27 AUM growth - 22-24% On track - At the Q4 FY26 call and in the Q4 FY26 PPT, management guided 22-24% AUM growth for FY27. Q1 FY27 AUM grew 24% YoY, tracking at or above the guided range.
9. FY27 customer addition - 1.5-1.7 cr On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management was confident of adding 1.5-1.7 cr new customers in FY27; the Q1 FY27 PPT restated this as 18-20 MM. Q1 FY27 added 5.10 MM new customers.
10. MSME stress - behind by March-June 2026 Missed - At the Q2 FY26 call, management expected MSME stress to be behind them by between March and June 2026; later calls pushed the return to 20s growth out two to three quarters and then to between Q2 and Q3 FY27. MSME grew 2% in Q1 FY27, with recovery guided to Q3 FY27.
11. Gold loan - ₹27,000-30,000 cr by March 2027 On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management expected the gold loan business to be between ₹27,000-30,000 cr by March 2027; at the Q1 FY27 call this became ₹29,000-31,000 cr by year-end FY27. Gold loan AUM was ₹21,152 cr in Q1 FY27.
12. Customer franchise - \~12 cr by end FY26 Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management expected the customer franchise to end FY26 at \~12 cr. The franchise ended FY26 at 11.93 cr.
13. Rajeev Jain - operating role till March 2028; succession plan within 6 months On track - At the Q1 FY26 call, Rajeev Jain stated he would remain in an operating role till March 2028, with a succession planning process to be presented to the Board/NRC within 6 months; at the Q1 FY27 call the decision was timed for December 2027-January 2028. No succession plan disclosure is in the record as of Q1 FY27.
14. MSME - slowest growth line in FY26; AUM may grow \~15% Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management expected MSME to grow a lot more slowly in FY26, with AUM growth of \~15%; at the Q2 FY26 call this was revised to 10-12%. MSME grew 6% in FY26, after 11% growth in Q3 FY26.
15. Anup Saha as MD leading investor calls from Q1 FY26 Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management stated Anup Saha as MD would lead investor calls from Q1 FY26, with Rajeev Jain assisting. Anup Saha resigned as MD in Q1 FY26 and Rajeev Jain continued leading calls.
16. Share split and 4:1 bonus Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, the board recommended subdivision of face value from ₹2 to ₹1 and a 4:1 bonus issue, subject to shareholder approval. The bonus and split conversion happened on 16 June 2025.
17. BHFL stake - bring down to 75% over next two years On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management stated BFL still has to bring its stake down to 75% in BHFL over the next two years. BFL's holding was 86.7% in Q3 FY26, and at the Q1 FY27 call management said dilution to 75% would proceed with "no hurry".
18. FY26 ROE - 19-20% Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management estimated FY26 ROE between 19-20%. FY26 ROE delivered 19.2%.
19. FY26 ROA - 4.4-4.6% Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management estimated FY26 ROA at 4.4-4.6%. FY26 ROA delivered 4.6%.
20. FY26 credit cost - 1.85-1.95% Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management estimated FY26 credit cost in the corridor of 1.85-1.95%; at the Q2 FY26 call management pointed to the upper end. FY26 credit cost delivered 1.93%.
21. FY26 opex to NTI - improve 40-50 bps Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management estimated opex to NTI to improve by 40-50 bps in FY26. FY26 opex to NTI improved 36 bps.
22. FY26 AUM growth - 24-25% Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management estimated FY26 AUM growth at 24-25%; this was revised to 23-24% at the Q1 FY26 call, 22-23% at the Q2 FY26 call and 22-23%, more likely 22%, at the Q3 FY26 call. FY26 AUM grew 22%, below the original guided floor, and management's own FY26 scorecard marks AUM growth as yellow ("guided 24%-25%, delivered 22%").
23. FY26 customer addition - 1.4-1.6 cr Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management was confident to add 1.4-1.6 cr customers in FY26; this was revised to 1.6-1.7 cr at the Q2 FY26 call and 1.7-1.8 cr at the Q3 FY26 call. FY26 added 1.75 cr new customers.
24. FY26 cost of funds - 7.75-7.85% by end FY26 Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected cost of funds to gradually go down to 7.75-7.85% by end of FY26; subsequent calls guided 760-765 bps, 7.5-7.55% full year and an FY26 exit between 7.55-7.60%. Q4 FY26 cost of funds was 7.41%, with the full year improving 43 bps to 7.54%.
25. Group two-wheeler AUM - wind down fully over next 2 years On track - At the Q2 FY25 call, management stated the group (Bajaj Auto captive) two-wheeler financing AUM would mostly wind down fully over the next 2 years; at the Q4 FY25 call the captive 2W/3W book was to fully wind down by March-June 2026. Captive 2W & 3W AUM declined 60% to ₹4,288 cr in FY26 and was expected to be <₹1,500 cr by September 2026.
26. 10 cr customer franchise - cross in FY25 Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management was optimistic of crossing a 10 cr customer franchise in FY25. The franchise crossed 10 cr in Q4 FY25, ending at 10.18 cr.
27. FY25 GNPA - 85-100 bps; NNPA range bound Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management expected FY25 GNPA between 85-100 bps, below the long-term guidance of 1.2-1.4%. FY25 GNPA delivered 0.96% and NNPA 0.44%.
28. FY25 ROA - 4.6-4.8% Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management assessed FY25 ROA to remain within 4.6-4.8%. FY25 ROA delivered 4.6%.
29. FY25 credit costs - 175-185 bps corridor Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management assessed FY25 credit costs to remain within 175-185 bps; this moved to 1.75-1.85% with marginal upward bias at the Q1 FY25 call, 2.0-2.05% at the Q2 FY25 call and 2.2% full-year at the Q3 FY25 call. FY25 credit cost delivered 2.07%.
30. FY25 opex-to-NIM improvement - 20-40 bps Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management assessed FY25 opex-to-NIM improvement of 20-40 bps. FY25 opex-to-NTI improved 80 bps.
31. FY25 NIM moderation - 30-40 bps over next two quarters then stabilize Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management assessed FY25 NIM moderation of 30-40 bps over the next two quarters, then stabilization. FY25 NIM moderation delivered 49 bps.
32. FY25 AUM growth - 26-28% Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management assessed FY25 AUM/balance sheet growth of 26-28%; this was reiterated with upward bias towards 28% at the Q1 FY25 call and set at 27-28% at the Q2 FY25 call. FY25 AUM grew 26%.
33. FY25 customer origination - 1.2-1.4 cr Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management assessed FY25 customer origination of 1.2-1.4 cr; at the Q2 FY25 call this was estimated at 1.5-1.6 cr. FY25 added 1.88 cr new customers.
34. Loan losses - 1.79% of average AUF in FY24; 160-180 bps going forward Delivered - At the Q3 FY24 call, management expected full-year annualized loan losses to average AUF to hold at 1.79% (excluding management overlay release), with loan losses straddling 160-180 bps going forward. FY24 loan loss to average AUF was 1.63%, or 1.82% adjusted for overlay release, and Q4 FY24 loan loss was 1.86%.
35. Cost of funds peak - by Q4 FY24 Missed - At the Q2 FY24 call, management guided cost of funds to peak by Q4 FY24. Cost of funds was 7.86% in Q4 FY24, up 10 bps QoQ, and peaked at 7.99% in Q4 FY25 before declining to 7.40% in Q1 FY27.
36. BHFL housing mix - 60% residential by 31 March 2024 Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management intended to meet the regulatory 60% residential housing asset mix by 31 March 2024, targeting 60% by Q3 (31 December 2023), with the mix at 59.01% as of 30 September 2023. BFL met the PBC criteria at 61% vs the 60% hurdle in Q4 FY24, and BHFL PBC was 63.28% in Q4 FY25.
37. BHFL separate listing - eight quarters away (by \~September 2025) Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, management stated BHFL separate listing was eight quarters away, with a formal request for extension of the RBI deadline; at the Q4 FY24 call management noted "By September '25, we have to list the firm based on the upper-layer guidance". BHFL completed its listing in September 2024, a year ahead of RBI timelines.
38. Capital raise - ₹10,000 cr via QIP and preferential allotment Delivered - At the Q2 FY24 call, the board approved raising ₹10,000 cr - ₹8,800 cr via QIP and ₹1,200 cr via preferential allotment to Bajaj Finserv. A QIP of nearly ₹10,000 cr was raised in Q3 FY24, and preferential warrants were issued to Bajaj Finserv.
39. NIM compression - another 20-30 bps; sustain \~5% ROA exit FY24 Partial - At the Q2 FY24 call, management expected another 20-25-30 bps of NIM compression on a full-year basis but, with operating leverage, should sustain \~5% ROA on an exit basis for FY24. Q4 FY24 annualised ROA was 4.84% and FY24 ROA was 5.08%.
40. Opex-to-NIM - 33.7-34% in FY24 Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management expected opex-to-NIM at 33.7-34% on a full-year basis in FY24. FY24 opex-to-NIM came in at 34.0%.
41. New customer additions - 1.1-1.2 cr in FY24 Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management expected to add 1.1-1.2 cr new customers in FY24, with upside possible; this was raised to 1.3-1.4 cr at the Q2 FY24 call and reiterated at the Q3 FY24 call. FY24 added a record 1.45 cr new customers.
42. AUM trajectory - ₹4 lakh cr in three years; 64-67 to 75-80 cr AUM growth in coming years Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, Rajeev Jain reaffirmed the July AGM point of reaching ₹4 lakh cr AUM in three years (one year gone), with AUM growth of 64-67 to 75-80 cr in coming years. AUM crossed ₹4 lakh cr in Q3 FY25 (₹398,000 cr), ended FY25 at ₹416,661 cr, and crossed ₹5 lakh cr in Q4 FY26.
43. MFI - two states to ten states over four years Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management planned to start MFI with two states (UP, Tamil Nadu) and build out to ten states over four years. MFI was present across 11 states through 447 branches as of Q1 FY27.
44. No plan to convert into a bank Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, Rajeev Jain stated firmly there was no plan to convert into a bank, reiterated from the July AGM; at the Q3 FY25 call management said BFL would like to remain a nonbank with business as usual for the short to medium term. No bank conversion is in the record; the company remains an NBFC as of Q1 FY27.
45. Through-the-cycle shareholder returns - 19-21% On track - At the Q3 FY23 call, management stated its philosophy to deliver through-the-cycle 19-21% shareholder returns and intended to continue; the Q4 FY25 PPT revised long-term ROE guidance to 19-21%, reiterated in the Q4 FY26 PPT. ROE was 23.46% in FY23, 22.05% in FY24, 19.2% in FY25, 18.1% in FY26 and 20.4% in Q1 FY27.
46. Opex-to-NII - sustain 34.7 level in Q4 FY23; lower in FY24 Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management was reasonably comfortable that opex-to-NII (34.7 level) would be sustained in Q4 FY23, and that FY24 opex-to-NII would be lower than FY23. Q4 FY23 opex-to-NII came in at 34.1%, and FY24 improved to 34.0% from 35.1% in FY23.
47. Deposits - 25% of consolidated balance sheet in the medium term Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided deposits would be 25% of the consolidated balance sheet sometime in the medium term; the Q4 FY24 and Q4 FY25 PPTs reiterated the 25% target. Deposits were 21% of consolidated borrowings in Q4 FY23, 21% in Q4 FY24, 20% in Q4 FY25, 16% in Q4 FY26 and 15% in Q1 FY27, with management guiding 15-16% for FY26.
48. New customer additions - 1.1 cr in FY23 Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management expected to cross 1.1 cr new customers in FY23, versus the original plan of 0.9-1.0 cr. FY23 added 1.16 cr new customers, the highest ever.
49. Core AUM growth - ₹52,000-53,000 cr in FY23 Delivered - At the Q3 FY23 call, management reiterated guidance of ₹52,000-53,000 cr of core AUM growth in FY23, with \~₹39,000 cr achieved in nine months. FY23 core AUM growth delivered at ₹55,292 cr, above the guided range.