Bajaj Finance Ltd Q3 FY2026 Concall Summary & Transcript Notes

Source transcript PDF: https://www.stockscans.in/document/98ulddli9tab5ri9m6wl86ke.pdf

# 1. Financial Performance

## A. Key Figures
   *   **AUM Growth:** **₹23,622 Cr** (Q3 FY'26) · **Core AUM +22% YoY** (ex-₹1,416 Cr one-time gain)
   *   **Fee & Commission Income:** **₹1,960 Cr** (+30% YoY, no one-time)
   *   **Core Profit & PAT:** **+23%** (ex-one-time charges)
   * Opex to NTI Ratio: 32.8% (improved efficiency)
   * Core ROE & ROA: 19.6% & 4.6% · Capital Adequacy: 21.45%
   *   **Pre-provision Profit:** **+19%** · **PBT:** +23% reported, **–6% adjusted** (ex-one-time)
   *   **Liquidity Buffer:** **₹15,100 Cr** · **Distribution Network:** **241,000 points**

## B. Revenue & AUM Growth
   *   **Sustained Portfolio Expansion:** AUM growth reflects strong momentum across business lines, with core operating AUM showing **robust double-digit growth**.
   *   **High-Quality Revenue Growth:** Fee and commission income growth was entirely organic, signaling **durable earnings power**; management expects **moderated but healthy growth of 17%-20% from FY '27**.

## C. Profit & Margin Trends
   *   **Resilient Core Earnings:** Despite one-time P&L volatility, core profit and PAT delivered **strong double-digit growth**, underpinned by operating leverage and disciplined cost management.
   *   **Efficiency Gains Continue:** Opex to NTI ratio held at a lean **8%**, reflecting **sustained operating leverage** and scalable infrastructure.
   *   **Profitability Metrics Intact:** Core ROE and ROA both at **6%**, supported by high capital adequacy, indicating **sound return framework and balance sheet strength**.

## D. Cash Flow & Capital
   *   **Strategic Use of Gains:** The **₹1,416 Cr** stake sale gain was offset by a near-equivalent **₹1,406 Cr** LGD provisioning, reinforcing a **conservative capital and risk philosophy**.
   *   **Shockproof Capital Strategy:** Future gains will be prioritized for **provisioning resiliency over net worth accretion**, ensuring durability through cycles.
   *   **Disciplined Capital Allocation:** Equal leverage across business lines (ex-mortgage) ensures **capital efficiency and sustainable returns**; consolidated accounting treatment keeps gains out of P&L.

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# 2. Loan Book & Asset Quality

## A. Key Figures
   *   **GNPA:** **121 bps** · **NNPA:** **47 bps**
   *   **Total Credit Costs:** **₹3,625 Cr** (core: ₹2,043 Cr) (+9% YoY)
   * AF Portfolio: ₹4,200 Cr (Mar) → ₹1,700 Cr (by Sep), 1.14% of balance sheet, 14% of GNPA
   * Provisioning Changes: Stage 1 PCR: 74 → 98 bps · Stage 2 PCR: 30.1% → ~37% · Stage 3 PCR: 52% → 61%
   *   **Stage 2 & 3 Net Provisions:** ↓₹93 Cr QoQ (Stage 2 ↓₹287 Cr, Stage 3 ↑₹194 Cr)

## B. Asset Quality & Risk Profile
   *   **Resilient Credit Quality:** Low and stable GNPA/NNPA ratios reflect disciplined underwriting and effective risk management.
   *   **AF Portfolio Run-down:** Significant reduction in high-risk AF book underway, substantially de-risking future credit cost trajectory.
   *   **Vintage Improvement:** Strengthening performance across early-stage vintages (3–9MOB) signals **improving portfolio health** and supports near-term credit cost moderation.

## C. Provisioning & Coverage Strategy
   *   **Elevated Coverage Ratios:** Material increases in Stage 1–3 PCR, including **Urban B2C PCR raised to 80%**, enhance buffer against potential ECL volatility.
   *   **Forward-Looking Provisioning:** Additional **₹300–400 Cr** of provisioning expected over next year to sustain conservative coverage and resilience.
   *   **LGD Discipline:** Uniform **80% LGD** applied across all stages; provisioning dynamics driven by PD and EAD modeling, ensuring risk-sensitive ECL accuracy.

## D. Credit Policy & Write-offs
   *   **Prudent Write-off Framework:** Standard six-installment default trigger for write-offs, with exceptions only for secured segments with high collateral coverage or long tails.

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# 3. Funding & Cost of Capital

## A. Key Figures
   * Cost of Funds: 7.45% (down 7 bps QoQ) · 7.55–7.60% expected exit rate FY
   *   **Deposit Mix:** **17%** of consolidated borrowing (Dec '25)

## B. Cost of Funds Trend
   *   **Limited Downside Ahead:** Cost of funds improvement nearly exhausted as back book repricing is largely complete, reducing future margin benefit.
   *   **Guidance on Track:** Exit rate expected within guided range, reflecting stable funding cost outlook despite minimal further improvement potential.

## C. Deposit Mix Shift
   *   **Strategic Funding Optimization:** Deliberate slowdown in deposit growth to refine funding structure, now representing a **17%** share of consolidated borrowings.

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# 4. Segment & Product Performance

## A. Key Figures
   * **New Loans Booked:** **14 million** (+15%)
   * Customer Base: Expanded by **4.76 million** to **115 million total**, on track to reach **120 million** this fiscal
   * Cross-Sell Customers: 74 million
   *   **Urban B2C Loan Growth:** Moderated to **~20%**
   *   **Personal Loan Market Share:** **8%** (up from 7% YoY)
   *   **New Car Financing Growth:** **38%-39%** · **Overall Car Loan Growth:** **26%**
   *   **CV & Tractor Financing Target:** **30%-40% growth**
   *   **Gold Loan Branches:** Exceeded **1,200**
   * BHFL AUM Growth: 23% · PAT Growth: 21% · ROE: 2.3% · GNPA: 27 bps · NNPA: 11 bps
   *   **BFSL AUM Growth:** **63%** · **Profit Growth:** **74%** · **ROE:** **13%** · **New Customers:** **104,000**

## B. B2B & MSME Growth
   *   **Explosive Franchise Expansion:** Customer base grew by 48 crore in the quarter, reflecting strong digital adoption and **record loan volumes**, with cross-selling now reaching 4 crore users.
   *   **MSME Portfolio Discipline:** Unsecured MSME growth remains constrained by **25%-30% volume reduction** due to tighter underwriting, with return to 20s growth expected by Q3 FY26.
   *   **Urban B2C Resilience:** Despite moderation in loan growth, market share remains stable at **7%-10%**, with significant runway given low penetration at **3%** in personal loans.

## C. Vehicle Finance Expansion
   *   **Strong Momentum in Auto Lending:** New car financing surged with **robust double-digit growth**, driving overall car loan expansion, while used car segment expected to recover in H2.
   *   **High-Growth Strategic Bets:** CV and tractor financing, though small, are targeted for **30%-40% growth** as profitability thresholds are met under capital discipline framework.

## D. Gold Loan & MFI Outlook
   *   **Sustainable Gold Loan Scaling:** Distribution expansion continues with **over 1,200 branches**, supported by AI and digital tools that reduce credit costs and footfall.
   *   **Branch Transformation Strategy:** Existing branches are being repurposed into gold loan-focused units amid declining physical traffic due to **app/BOT adoption**.
   *   **MFI Normalization Expected:** MFI and other segments projected to stabilize next fiscal year, with gold loans resilient under stable price environment.

## E. BHFL & BFSL Results
   *   **BHFL: Stability Amid Pressure:** Delivered solid AUM and profit growth despite competitive intensity and attrition, maintaining **best-in-class asset quality** with near-zero net NPAs.
   *   **BFSL: Outperformance Across Metrics:** Achieved exceptional AUM and profit growth with **104,000 new customers** added and **13% ROE**, signaling strong execution and scalability.

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# 5. Credit Risk & Macro Exposure

## A. Consumer Leverage Trends
   *   **Consumer Leverage Stable So Far:** Bureau data indicates consumer leverage has remained flat YoY through the first eight months, with March data pending for updated clarity.

## B. Unsecured Loan Stress
   *   **Proactive De-risking Underway:** Company has executed significant business cuts over the past year to strengthen credit quality, targeting FY19–20 credit cost levels despite operating at **4x the scale**.
   *   **ECL Methodology Shift Signals Future Divergence:** LGD differentiation between Stage 1 and Stage 2 in ECL models—beyond standard PD adjustments—suggests potential deviation in credit cost trends over the next three years vs. prior period.
   *   **Selective Stress in Credit Segments:** Unsecured loans, MFI, and MSME segments show stress amid broader external volatility, while retail products (home loans, LAP, gold loans) remain relatively stable.

## C. Competitive Intensity
   *   **Elevated Competition Across Markets:** Urban and rural B2C lending now face intensified competition, with expanded participation from public sector banks—**SBI is currently the largest personal loan lender in India by market share**.
   *   **Micro-Focused Strategy Maintained:** Management asserts control over lending outcomes through granular decision-making, viewing events like COVID or demonetization as rare, uncontrollable outliers.

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# 6. Technology & AI Integration

## A. Key Figures
   *   **Loan Disbursements via AI:** **₹1,600 Cr** (AI call centers) · **₹325 Cr** incremental business volume (data extraction)
   *   **Technology Efficiency Gains:** **25%–45%** improvement overall · **up to 47%** on digital infrastructure
   * AI Call Processing Scale: 20 Mn calls processed (voice-to-text) · System to scale to 100 Mn annually
   * **Identity Verification:** **46 million** face matches conducted via AI
   *   **Document Automation:** **43** document types supported · **95%–96%** accuracy in auto-fill · **41%** automation in quality checks (target: **85%–90%**)
   * **AI Content Generation:** **100%** of **2.7 lakh videos** and **1.2 lakh banners** created using AI

## B. AI in Operations
   *   **Strategic Scaling:** Company has entered "gear two" of AI adoption, shifting from innovation to measuring and reporting tangible business impact.
   *   **Enterprise-Wide Deployment:** AI is being democratized across the full customer lifecycle—from discovery to onboarding—with **800+ autonomous AI agents** planned across sales, HR, IT, risk, and DMS in FY27.
   *   **Operational Leverage:** Significant efficiency gains realized in tech development, particularly on digital platforms, enabling faster iteration and deployment.

## C. Document & Voice Automation
   *   **Voice Intelligence at Scale:** AI-powered voice-to-text conversion enabled **text-to-data extraction for 2 lakh customers**, driving **100,000 personalized offers**.
   *   **Document Processing Maturity:** High-accuracy AI auto-fill is operational for key documents; quality assurance automation is in ramp-up phase with aggressive near-term target.

## D. Customer-Facing AI Tools
   *   **AI-Driven Engagement:** **11 AI text BOTs** currently live, set to expand to all **26 products by mid-2026**, replacing legacy SMS outreach.
   *   **Next-Gen Consumer Platform:** AI summaries and interactive features launching **May–June 2026**, with full **Consumer AI platform** (dual AI/classic mode) for **10 crore customers** expected by **May–June 2027**.

## E. FINAI Initiative Progress
   *   **Data Foundation Investment:** Deepening investments in multi-modal data annotation (voice, text, image, structured) under FINAI to power consumer intelligence and decision velocity.
   *   **Transparency Commitment:** Progress on FINAI will be shared via **quarterly updates**, signaling strategic importance and governance rigor.

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# 7. Risks & Regulatory Factors

## A. Key Figures
   *   **ECL Provision:** **₹1,406 Cr** one-time charge (LGD floor implementation)
   *   **Labor Code Charge:** **₹265 Cr** one-time exceptional charge · **₹100–125 Cr** annualized impact

## B. LGD Floor Impact
   *   **Proactive Risk Enhancement:** Permanent, board-approved structural change to ECL framework via minimum LGD floors, aimed at shockproofing balance sheet and P&L.
   *   **Conservative & Uniform Framework:** Holistic redefinition of LGD floors—**80%** for certain segments, **40%-50%** for secured businesses—ensures prudent, consistent provisioning without recurring judgmental overlays.
   *   **Macro-Driven Prudence:** Move driven by rising consumer leverage risks and competitive intensity; floors to be reviewed annually, policy reassessed in 2–3 years.

## C. Labor Code Liabilities
   *   **Regulatory Cost Impact:** Second major one-time charge from new labor code; introduces **material annualized expense** of ₹100–125 Cr.

## D. Credit Cost Volatility
   *   **Higher Steady-State Credit Costs:** Revised ECL model embeds more conservative loss assumptions for Stage 1 and Stage 2, aligning with long-term resilience goals.

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# 8. Guidance & Outlook

## A. Key Figures
   *   **AUM Growth Guidance:** **22–23%** full-year outlook, likely **22%** (slower MSME & 2W wind-down)
   *   **Credit Cost Forecast:** **165–175 bps** expected for next fiscal, including permanent provisions
   * **Current Credit Cost:** **1.91% annualized**, now back to **sub-2% levels**

## B. AUM Growth Forecast
   *   **Segmented Growth Trajectory:** B2B to grow in the **mid-teens**, while most other businesses projected for **20%+ medium-term growth**, supported by P&L dynamics.
   *   **Strategic De-risking:** Deliberate AUM growth moderation driven by wind-down of captive 2-wheeler portfolio and slower MSME expansion.
   *   **Medium-Term Confidence:** Management maintains strong optimism on core performance and organic scalability across verticals.

## C. Credit Cost Guidance
   *   **Resilience Building:** Credit cost guidance reflects proactive strengthening of provisions amid volatile macro conditions, with FY '27 outlook viewed as manageable.
   *   **Performance Validation:** Internal vintage metrics (3/6/9 MOB) provide confidence in the **165–175 bps** loss guidance, signaling portfolio stability.

## D. ROE & ROA Targets
   *   **Capital Allocation Discipline:** Each business must reach **$2B scale in five years** and meet strict **ROE/ROA benchmarks** to qualify for capital allocation.
   *   **Profitability Over Scale:** Emphasis on **sustainable returns** over balance sheet growth, with gold loan ROE/ROA already at industry-leading levels.
   *   **Gold Price Sensitivity:** Expansion plans remain sustainable but are highly sensitive to volatility—highlighted by a **$1,000/oz drop in one week** impacting budgeting.

## E. FY '27 Expectations
   *   **Customer-Centric Transformation:** Strategic shift from **60-40 (acquisition-retention)** to **40-60 balance**, targeting **20 crore customers by FY '30** and **10 crore annual loans**.
   *   **Ambitious Scale Goals:** Aims to serve **20% of India’s 200M households**, deepening wallet share via cross-sell, efficiency, and lower credit costs.
   *   **Long-Term Vision:** Targeting status as **lowest-risk financial player** and **technology leader** in Indian fintech, with resilience already visible in Q3.
   *   **Phased Execution:** Major shifts—including AI integration and customer strategy—will unfold gradually over **3–4 years**, ensuring operational continuity.