• Profitability drag: EBITDA declined 22% year-on-year due to a ₹30 per quintal increase in cane prices and a 16.5% rise in ethanol raw material (FRP) costs over three years without corresponding ethanol price revisions.
• Sugar price outlook: Sugar currently sells between ₹41 and ₹42.5 per kg with scope to rise by ₹1.5 to ₹2, supported by a tight inventory of approximately 4.3 million tonnes that will prevent retail prices from dropping despite export bans.
• Distillery segment viability: Ethanol production through the juice route has become unviable without government price revisions to offset the 16.5% increase in FRP, putting continuous pressure on segment profitability.
• PLA capex expansion: Total capex has risen to over ₹3,000 crore—including an increase of roughly ₹230 crore for engineering scoping, forex impact, and efficiency equipment—with commercial production slated for Q3 FY27.