1. IPO net proceeds fully utilized by end of Fiscal 2025 Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 disclosure, management committed that if IPO Net Proceeds were not completely utilised for the Objects by end of Fiscal 2025, such amounts would be utilised in Fiscal 2026. IPO net proceeds of ₹692.94 crore stood fully utilised during the quarter ended March 31, 2025, with no delay in implementation of objects.
2. Market share from \~7% to 10% over next 2-3 years Pending - At the FY26 annual report, management guided improving market share from nearly 7% to 10% over the next 2-3 years. Market share was \~6-7% as of Q3 FY26 and \~7% in Q1 FY27 - no improvement yet.
3. Total installed capacity beyond 0.09 crore tonnes by FY 2030 Pending - At the FY25 annual report, management guided that at full scale, initiatives were expected to lift total installed capacity beyond 0.09 crore tonnes (900,000 tonnes) by FY 2030. Current capacity is \~680,000 tonnes, with no FY 2030 read yet.
4. Sanand 90,000 tonne steel wire capacity - completion by December 2027 On track - At the Q3 FY26 PPT, management guided a 90,000 tonne steel wire capacity at Sanand, Gujarat, with planned further investment of Rs. 150 crore and target completion by December 2027. By Q1 FY27 the Sanand expansion had already started with wire CAPEX of \~90,000 tonnes.
5. Steel tyre cord - full commercialisation by mid-FY27 On track - At the FY26 annual report, management targeted steel tyre cord full commercialisation by mid-FY 2026-27. In Q1 FY27 the first trial order was received and supplied, but the product remains at trial stage with no order book.
6. CAPEX cap - INR 200-250 crore every year On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management stated the company will cap CAPEX at about INR 200-250 crore every year (including this year) to support 20-25% volume growth, with the Speciality segment the only possible exception. Q1 FY27 capex to operating cash flow was 25%; no full-year FY27 figure yet.
7. IHT - 50% capacity utilization by August 2026, optimum within FY27 Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call (July 2026), management targeted about 50% IHT capacity utilization for August 2026 and optimum utilization (\~60-80%) in IHT and OHT within the year. The August 2026 deadline has since passed with no utilization figure reported; latest disclosed remains Q1 FY27.
8. Combined FY27 and FY28 operating cash flow - almost INR 800 crore On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, the CFO raised the combined operating cash flow guidance for FY27 and FY28 to almost INR 800 crore. Q1 FY27 operating cash flow was ₹121.1 crore and FY26 operating cash flow was ₹333.1 crore; the FY28 horizon is not yet reached.
9. FY27 growth - 20% volume and EBITDA On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management reiterated it was "still working towards" 20% growth for the rest of FY27, with EBITDA guidance also still remaining 20%. Q1 FY27 volume was 112,000 tonnes, +7.6% YoY, and EBITDA ₹56.7 crore, -26.3% YoY; the full year is not yet complete.
10. Q1 FY27 - at least 50 days of standard EBITDA out of 90 Missed - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided that in Q1 FY27, out of 90 days, "at least 50 days of standard EBITDA we should get," with the INR 2,000-2,500/ton level applying only during the 30-40 day order book window. The first 45 days were hit by cost escalation - EBITDA fell from ₹7/kg to ₹2/kg before recovering to ₹7-8/kg from May 15, blending to \~₹4-4.5/kg; Q1 FY27 EBITDA was ₹56.7 crore, -26.3% YoY - only \~45 days of standard EBITDA, below the 50-day floor.
11. Dadri +1.2 lakh tons in FY27 - total at least 8 lakh tons by end FY27 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management planned to add another 1.2 lakh tons at Dadri in FY27 (from 6.8 lakh tons), available "towards the end of the year," taking capacity to at least 8 lakh tons by end of FY27, and 8.5-8.6 lakh tons with Sanand. Q1 FY27 operating capacity was \~680,000 tonnes, with a further 60,000 tonnes that can be commissioned whenever required.
12. B2C sales - 12-15% of sales in FY27 On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided a B2C sales target for FY27 at 12-15% of sales, versus \~5% in Q2 and >7% in Q3. B2C contributed approximately 10% of sales in Q1 FY27, having doubled last year and gained 5-10% of mix in one year.
13. Sanand balance 50% land - decision within 1-2 quarters Partial - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided a decision within the next 1 or 2 quarters on the Sanand balance 50% land - either sell/monetize or use for further expansion. Q4 FY26 shifted to selling it off for cash, and by Q1 FY27 the facility will not be disposed of, with only some part of excess land possibly sold - the decision is still pending.
14. Specialty wire segment profitability within Q4 FY26 Missed - At the Q3 FY26 call, management expected specialty wire segment profitability "within quarter 4," with IHT margins almost double regular high carbon wire. In Q4 FY26 IHT was not yet contributing meaningful EBITDA, needing 50% utilization to turn positive, and in Q1 FY27 it ran at \~35-40% utilization with no meaningful EBITDA - the segment is not yet profitable.
15. IHT/OHT capacity expansion from 9,000 to 15,000 tons in 2-3 quarters On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management guided that IHT/OHT capacity expansion from 9,000 tons to 15,000 tons should be done in the next 2 to 3 quarters. In Q1 FY27, IHT/OHT capacity was 9,000 tonnes, reaching 15,000 tonnes with OHT commissioning, which had not yet occurred.
16. B2C segment to grow at more than 30-35% every year Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, management stated its belief that the B2C segment will grow at more than 30-35% every year. B2C sales doubled last year, gaining 5-10% of mix in one year, moving from \~5% of sales in Q2 FY26 to \~10% in Q1 FY27.
17. Low carbon wire to 60% of volume for 25% ROCE Partial - At the Q2 FY26 call, management targeted taking low carbon wire to 60% of volume (from 50-55%) to achieve a blended 25% ROCE. The mix remained at 50-55% through Q3 FY26, Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27 - the 60% target has not been reached.
18. Capacity utilization sweet spot - 80-85% Partial - At the Q2 FY26 call, management stated the company wants to operate at 80-85% capacity utilization, keeping headroom for 20-25% growth; later quarters reiterated \~90% and reaffirmed 80-85% for best return ratios. Utilization ran 74% in Q2 FY26, 78% in Q3 FY26, 67-68% for FY26 and 66% in Q1 FY27, though management claimed 85-90% post-crisis in Q1 FY27.
19. \~₹600 crores positive cash flow within FY26 and FY27 combined On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management targeted \~₹600 crores of positive cash flow within this year and next year combined, across 6 quarters; the target was confirmed as doable in Q3 FY26 and Q4 FY26, and raised to almost INR 800 crore at Q1 FY27. FY26 operating cash flow was ₹333.1 crore and Q1 FY27 ₹121.1 crore - \~₹454 crore in the first 5 of 6 quarters.
20. FY26 EBITDA growth - 10% increase Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management reaffirmed "a 10% increase of EBITDA this year", later raised to more than 20% in Q2 FY26 and 20-25% in Q3 FY26. FY26 EBITDA came in at ₹325 crore, +17% YoY - above the original 10% guidance though below the raised target.
21. Balaji Wires and Bansal High Carbon manufacturing shutdown within FY26 Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided manufacturing at Balaji Wires and Bansal High Carbon to shut down as Dadri ramps up, "within this year" (FY26); timelines stretched to 4-6 quarters, then 2-3 quarters, then 6-8 months. By FY26 end the two entities were still doing job work for Bansal Wire with no complete shutdown disclosed.
22. Tax rate normalization in FY26 - \~25% Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided the tax rate to normalize in FY26, from an apparent \~33-34% (MAT on subsidiary) back to \~25%. FY26 PAT of ₹161 crore on PBT of ₹209.9 crore implies \~23.3%, and Q1 FY27 implies \~21.4%.
23. Cash flow positivity from Q1 FY26 Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected cash flow positivity within Q1 FY26, positive cash flows "the whole year," and better ROCE from Q1 FY26. Q1 FY26 delivered over INR 100 crores in free cash flow from operating activities versus negative INR 150 crores in Q1 FY25, with FY26 operating cash flow at ₹333.1 crore.
24. Total CAPEX over next 2 years - \~Rs. 700 crores Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided total CAPEX over the next 2 years at \~Rs. 700 crores (Rs. 600 crores backward integration plus Rs. 100 crores expansion at Dadri), funded majorly through internal accruals and some debt; later quarters revised the annual run-rate to ₹150-250 crores and then a ₹200-250 crore annual cap. FY26 capex to operating cash flow was 69.81%, with CWIP moving from ₹178 cr to ₹214 cr - actual capex is running lower after the backward integration cancellation.
25. Additional 1,20,000 tons by end of Q2 FY26 - total 6.8 lakh tons Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided an additional 1,20,000 tons of capacity commissioned by end of Q2 FY26, taking total capacity to 6.8 lakh tons; the plan slipped 2-3 months with the last 60,000 tons pushed into Q3 FY26. Installed capacity reached 6,18,000 tons by September 2025 and 6,80,000 tons by FY26 end, with 60,000 tons commissioned only in April 2026.
26. FY26 EBITDA per ton - \~10% reduction expected Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected \~10% reduction in EBITDA per ton in FY26 on the Q4 exit rate of Rs. 7,600/ton, with FY27 returning to current levels on higher volume; guidance later firmed to \~INR 6.5/kg then constant EBITDA per ton. FY26 EBITDA per ton held at \~₹7,000-7,200 across quarters - ₹325 crore on 4.58 lakh tons = \~₹7,100/ton - above the guided reduction, a favorable outcome.
27. FY26 volume growth - 20-30% Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided 20-30% volume growth for FY26 - "a good number and a safe number to consider" - later raised to 30%, 30-40% and \~40%. FY26 sales volume came in at 4.58 lakh MT, +33% YoY, above the original 20-30% guidance.
28. Specialty wire pilot - 50,000 tonnes initial capacity, 4.5 lakh tonne market Partial - At the Q3 FY25 call, management stated the specialty wire pilot project with an initial capacity of 50,000 tonnes was established, against a market opportunity of four and a half lakh tonnes annually. Specialty capacity reached \~29,000 tons by Q3 FY26 and \~35,000 tonnes by Q1 FY27 - below the 50,000-tonne initial figure.
29. 20-25% annual growth rate to continue Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management noted the company has grown 20-25% on average over the last 10 years, "which is what we want to continue going ahead", a target reiterated through FY26 and into Q1 FY27. FY26 volume grew 33%, revenue grew 18.6%, and the 10-year revenue CAGR stands at 20.9% - within the guided range.
30. Dadri to 4.2 lakh tonnes by H1 FY26 - ₹70-80 crore additional investment Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management guided incremental Dadri expansion from 3.5 to 4.2 lakh tonnes raising investment by about ₹70-80 crores, "within the first two quarters of next year". Dadri capacity reached 4,20,000 tons by September 2025, with total company capacity at 6,80,000 tons by FY26 end.
31. Vendor financing/bill discounting limits utilized from Q3 and Q4 FY25 Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided vendor financing/bill discounting limits already tied up, to be utilized from Q3 and Q4 as revenue from Balaji and Bansal High Carbon came in. Factoring limits started being used in Q4 FY25 and channel financing was being utilized by Q1 FY26, expanding through FY26.
32. Backward integration - stainless steel rods, land finalization November-December 2024 Missed - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided backward integration into stainless-steel rods via subsidiary Bansal BWI Steels, with land to be finalized between November and December 2024; the plan was later costed at \~Rs. 600 crores, \~INR 650 crores, then cancelled in Q2 FY26 in favour of a \~₹150 crore stainless steel wires investment. Sanand land was acquired, but the steel plant was withdrawn and only the 90,000-tonne wire facility proceeds, targeted for December 2027.
33. Bead wire - 30,000 tons annual capacity operationalized by November 2024 Delivered - At the Q2 FY25 call, management guided bead wire \~30,000 tons annual capacity to be completely operationalized within November 2024. Bead wire commenced production in Q3 FY25 as part of the specialty wire vertical, though by Q1 FY26 the installed capacity was being shifted to better-margin products as it is fungible.
34. No further capital raise - all CAPEX funded from own accruals Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management stated no further capital raise was planned, with all CAPEX for the next many years to be funded from own accruals. No capital raise has been disclosed; debt/equity fell from 0.48 in FY25 to 0.39 in FY26, with FY26 operating cash flow of ₹333 crore funding capex.
35. Dadri ₹5,000 crore revenue at full ramp-up Pending - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided Dadri revenue potential of about Rs. 5,000 crores at full ramp-up. Dadri contributed more than 20-25% of revenue in Q1 FY26, with utilization at \~60% by Q3 FY26 and FY26 overall utilization at 67-68% - full ramp-up not yet reached.
36. FY25 quarterly trajectory - each quarter better than the last Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided that for FY25 the second quarter would be better than the first, the third better than the second, and the fourth better than the third. Volumes rose from \~76,000 tonnes in Q1 to \~97,000-98,000 tonnes in Q4, and EBITDA from Rs. 62 crores to Rs. 75 crores across the four quarters.
37. Working capital/ROCE improvement by end of FY25 Partial - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided working capital/ROCE improvement initiatives - reducing trade receivables, debtors and stock - saying "by the end of this year, we will see a very good impact on cash flow as well as ROCE". The deadline passed with FY25 operating cash flow at -₹151 crore; the improvement arrived a year late, with Q1 FY26 free cash flow of over INR 100 crores and FY26 operating cash flow of ₹333.1 crore.
38. ROCE guided at 20-25% with 25%+ target by FY27 Pending - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided maintaining at least 20-25% ROCE with a positive impact every year, later firmed to a 25%+ ROCE target by FY27. Reported ROCE has run FY25 14.34% through Q4 FY26 15.37%, with Q1 FY27 dipping to 10.15% on temporary disruptions, but FY27 is ongoing and management remains confident of achieving the target.
39. Hose wire - 15-20% EBITDA, new plant once steel cord online On track - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided hose wire at \~15-20% EBITDA, with no approval process needed and a new plant to make hose wire once steel cord comes online. Hose wire is in commercial production, selling from the steel cord facility by Q4 FY26 covering most of the main cost; the new plant remains contingent on steel cord, which is at trial stage.
40. IHT and OHT wires - 8,000-10,000 tonnes capacity, start by next year Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided IHT and OHT wires with 8,000-10,000 tonnes capacity allocated, used in electric vehicles, to be started by next year. IHT wire launched in October 2025 with 9,000 tonnes capacity and commercial production commenced ahead of the FY26 target, running at \~35-40% utilization by Q1 FY27; OHT commissioning is expected by Q4 FY27.
41. Steel cord 2 lakh tonne long-term target - ₹2,000-3,000 crore revenue, ₹700-800 crore EBITDA On track - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided a final plan of about 2 lakh tonnes of steel cord with \~Rs. 2,000 crores revenue "maybe five to six years down the line" and EBITDA of about Rs. 700-800 crores at current prices; later quantified as INR 2,000-2,500 crores of investment over 5 to 7 years with INR 600-800 crores EBITDA. The 20,000-tonne pilot is commissioned and the first trial order was received and supplied in Q4 FY26 - the scale-up horizon is not yet reached.
42. Dadri plant fully up by end of FY25 - Rs. 500 crore capex Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided Dadri plant CAPEX of Rs. 500 crores total, with Rs. 250 crores already spent, saying "By the end of this year, we will be able to have the full plant upstream" with 3.5 lakh tonnes capacity achievable. Dadri's 3.5 lakh tonnes was fully commissioned by end of FY25, with 100% of investments capitalized by Q2 FY26 and capacity at 4.2 lakh tons by Q2 FY26.
43. EBITDA growth of at least 80% in FY25 Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided at least 80% EBITDA growth over last year's \~Rs. 150 crores within FY25, driven by the new Dadri CAPEX; asked again in Q2, management said "I will have to get back to you on the 80%, but yes, we see a good growth". FY25 EBITDA grew 86% to Rs. 278.2 crores.
44. Company-wide installed capacity \~6 lakh tonnes by end of FY25 Partial - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided installed capacity to reach \~6 lakh tonnes by end of FY25, up from 2.5 lakh tonnes - "about 2.5x capacity jump", reiterated in Q2 FY25. FY25 closed at 5.5 lakh tons (also stated as 5.6 lakh tons) - \~0.4-0.5 lakh tonnes short, with 6 lakh tonnes crossed by September 2025 and 6.8 lakh tons by FY26 end.
45. Specialty wire production start - Q3 FY25 Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided specialty wires (fourth vertical) production to start in Q3 FY25 - hose wire first, then steel cord - with commercial production by November or December 2024 and hose wire revenues within Q4 FY25. The specialty vertical commenced production in Q3 FY25 across bead wire, hose wire and steel tyre cord, with sales beginning January 2025 at \~100-120 tonnes in the first month.