Black Box Ltd Guidance Report - SOIC x StockScans Report
as of Sep 2026
- GSI recurring revenue to exceed 40% in the short term, 50% over the next few years
On track - In the FY25 Annual Report, management targeted GSI recurring revenue of over 40% in the short term and 50% over the next few years. Around 30% of total revenue was recurring from managed services in FY25, and Q4 FY25 managed and maintenance services grew $61 million sequentially.
- Tax rate of 10-15% for FY27-FY28, normalizing to \~20% thereafter
On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, the CFO guided the tax rate to be 10-15% for FY27 and FY28, regularizing to around 20% thereafter. Q1 FY27 tax was ₹5 crore on PBT of ₹61 crore, an effective rate of \~8%.
- Headcount growth from \~4,000 to \~7,000 in the next few years
On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided headcount from \~4,000 to \~7,000 people in the next few years, including 2,100 data center hires in the next 12 months and GCC ramp from 600 to 1,000. Q1 FY27 workforce was \~4,000 total.
- India revenue to grow \~4x from \~$50 million to \~$200 million
On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management expected India to contribute 8-10% of revenue at the $2 billion scale, with India revenue growing \~4x from \~$50 million to \~$200 million. India contributed \~6-7% of revenue in FY26, and Q1 FY27 India revenue mix was 6%.
- Data center business to scale from $100 million to $500 million at $2 billion revenue
On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management expected the data center business to scale from a $100 million run rate to $500 million when the company reaches $2 billion, with 15-20% of completed projects converting to annuity. Data center contribution was \~17% of FY26 revenue, with Q1 FY27 guidance expecting \~30% in FY27.
- TPS revenue of $200 million by FY30
On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management targeted TPS revenue of $200 million by FY30, from $90 million currently, with 10% EBITDA margin and 40% gross margins. TPS revenue was $90 million in FY26, and at Q1 FY27 growth was guided at \~20% for FY27.
- 10% EBITDA margin by FY27
On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided to 10% overall EBITDA margin as a short-term goal by FY27, reiterated at Q1 FY27 as 10% by end of FY27. Q1 FY27 EBITDA margin was 9.3%, with full-year guided at 9.3-9.4% and Q4 FY27 expected "in that range or more".
- FY27 PAT guidance of ₹300-325 crore
On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided FY27 PAT of ₹300-325 crore, growth of 38-50%. Q1 FY27 PAT was ₹56 crore, up 18% YoY.
- FY27 EBITDA guidance of ₹725-750 crore
On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided FY27 EBITDA of ₹725-750 crore, growth of 27-32%. Q1 FY27 EBITDA was ₹160 crore, up 38% YoY.
- FY27 revenue guidance of ₹7,800-8,000 crore
On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided FY27 revenue of ₹7,800-8,000 crore, growth of 23-27%. Q1 FY27 revenue was ₹1,719 crore, up 24% YoY.
- FY27 order bookings of $1.3-1.4 billion
On track - At the Q1 FY27 call, management guided FY27 order bookings of $1.3-1.4 billion, growth of 32-45%. Q1 FY27 order bookings were $339 million.
- FY27 order backlog of $1.3-1.4 billion
On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided order backlog to reach $1.3-1.4 billion by end of FY27, reiterated at Q1 FY27 as $1.3-1.4 billion as of March 31, 2027, with the CFO calling it "a little bit conservative". Q1 FY27 order backlog was $949 million, up 83% YoY.
- 2S acquisition to add ₹500 crore revenue in FY27
On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, management stated the 2S acquisition was expected to add ₹500 crore of revenue in FY27, with integration and synergies within 90 days of closing, restated at Q4 FY26 as ₹500 crore annualized with \~9% EBITDA margin. The acquisition completed effective May 1, 2026, and Q1 FY27 included two months of consolidation contributing ₹60 crore of revenue.
- Wind River partnership to generate \~₹1,350 crore revenue over 5 years
On track - At the Q2 FY26 call, management stated the Wind River partnership was expected to generate approximately ₹1,350 crore in revenue over the next 5 years, at $30 million annually. Wind River license revenue was expected to scale up from Q3 FY26 onwards, and 100% of the Q2 FY26 inventory increase was due to Wind River licenses purchased at a deep discount.
- FY26 exceptional items of ₹40-50 crore; last year for exceptional items
Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, the CFO guided exceptional items of ₹40-50 crore for FY26 and said FY26 should be the last year for exceptional items. FY26 exceptional item loss was ₹63 crore, above the guided range, and Q1 FY27 carried a further ₹19 crore exceptional loss after the Q3 FY26 revision extended items into FY27.
- Data center orders of 20-25% of FY26 bookings (\~$200 million)
Partial - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided data center orders to 20-25% of FY26 bookings, over $200 million of the \~$1 billion target. FY26 bookings reached $1bn, but no data-center-specific booking figure is disclosed; disclosed DC wins included $75mn and $31mn engagements, with DC at \~17% of FY26 revenue.
- FY26 backlog of $700 million, revised to $800 million
Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management expected to open FY27 with a backlog of \~$700 million, revised upward at Q3 FY26 to \~$800 million by March 2026. Order backlog at March 2026 was $792 million, up 57% YoY, within the revised range.
- FY26 order booking target of $1 billion
Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, management targeted booking orders worth $1 billion in FY26, with confidence reiterated at Q3 FY26. FY26 order bookings were $1 billion+ (₹9,000 crore), up 35% YoY, including $377 million in Q4 FY26.
- FY26 PAT guidance of ₹265-285 crore
Missed - At the Q3 FY25 call, management guided FY26 PAT of ₹265-285 crore, revised down at Q3 FY26 to ₹220-230 crore. FY26 PAT was ₹218 crore, below the revised guidance.
- FY26 EBITDA guidance of ₹605-645 crore
Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management guided FY26 EBITDA of ₹605-645 crore with margin of 9.0-9.2%, revised down at Q3 FY26 to ₹555-575 crore with margin of 8.8-9.0%. FY26 EBITDA was ₹570 crore with margin of 9.0%, within the revised guidance.
- FY26 revenue guidance of ₹6,750-7,000 crore
Partial - At the Q3 FY25 call, management guided FY26 revenue of ₹6,750-7,000 crore, revised down at Q3 FY26 to ₹6,325-6,375 crore. FY26 revenue was ₹6,322 crore, marginally below the revised guidance, though management's own scorecard marked it as achieved.
- FY25 PAT guidance of ₹205-210 crore
Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management revised FY25 PAT guidance to ₹205-210 crore. FY25 PAT was ₹205 crore, at the lower end of the guided range.
- FY25 revenue guidance of ₹5,925-6,000 crore
Delivered - At the Q3 FY25 call, management revised FY25 revenue guidance to ₹5,925-6,000 crore. FY25 revenue was ₹5,967 crore, within the guided range.
- INR410 crore equity raise to be invested in data center, network, innovation and go-to-market
Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management said the ₹410 crore raised would be invested in data center expansion, network infrastructure advancement, innovation/development, and go-to-market expansion, restated at Q2 FY25 as ₹386 crore preferential warrants for growth capital. The preferential issue raised ₹386.36 crore, with 25% received in FY25 and 75% at end of March 2026, deployed into data center team expansion, GTM reorganization and India investments.
- Order book 25% more than revenue plan; consume 60-70% of order book in FY25
Partial - At the Q1 FY25 call, management stated the focus was to keep order books 25% more than the revenue plan and expected to consume 60-70% of the current order book in the remaining part of FY25. The FY25 horizon has lapsed with no reported consumption read; backlog nonetheless grew from $475 million at June 2024 to $504 million at March 2025 and FY25 revenue of ₹5,967 crore landed within the revised guidance range, but the coverage and consumption metrics themselves remain unverified.
- TPS to grow over 20% in FY25
Missed - At the Q1 FY25 call, management planned to grow the TPS business over 20% in FY25 and expected it to be accretive at or above 9%. TPS revenue was ₹764 crore in FY25, essentially flat versus ₹758 crore in FY24, with segment PBIT margin of -4.28%.
- Organic growth to $1.2-1.3 billion with double-digit growth
On track - At the Q1 FY25 call, management expected to take the business organically to $1.2-1.3 billion with double-digit growth for the next several years, subsequently revised through $1.4-1.5 billion, $1.3-1.4 billion over four years, $1.1-1.2 billion by FY29, and finally ₹12,000 crore (\~$1.3 billion) at 17% CAGR by FY30. FY26 revenue was ₹6,322 crore, up 5.95%, while Q1 FY27 revenue grew 24% YoY.
- $2 billion revenue by FY29
On track - At the Q1 FY25 call, management targeted becoming a $2 billion enterprise over the next 4 years, formalized at Q3 FY25 as $2 billion revenue by FY29 capturing 1.5-2% of the \~$120-150 billion TAM, and restated at Q4 FY26 as $2 billion (₹18,000 crore) by FY30 with ₹12,000 crore organic and ₹6,000 crore inorganic. Q1 FY27 revenue was ₹1,719 crore, up 24% YoY, at a \~$800 million annual run rate.
- FY25 exit EBITDA margin of 9%
Delivered - At the Q1 FY25 call, management guided to an FY25 exit EBITDA margin of 9%. Q4 FY25 EBITDA margin was 9.5%, with the full year at 8.9%.
- FY25 EBITDA margin outlook of 525-560 bps (₹525-560 crore EBITDA)
Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 EBITDA in the range of ₹525-560 crore, revised at Q3 FY25 to ₹525-535 crore. FY25 EBITDA was ₹531 crore with margin of 8.9%, within the revised guidance.
- FY25 revenue growth of 5-10%
Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 revenue growth of 5-10%, revised down at Q3 FY25 to ₹5,925-6,000 crore. FY25 revenue was ₹5,967 crore, a decline of 5.01% YoY; the revised guidance was met but the original 5-10% growth target was not.
- ANZ (Global Speech Network) acquisition - margin improvement and cross-selling
Pending - At the Q1 FY24 call, management expected the effects of the ANZ acquisition - margin improvement and cross-selling - to be seen over the next few quarters. The GSN acquisition was completed in Q1 FY24, but no ANZ-specific margin or cross-selling outcome is disclosed in the record.
- Debt reduction by FY25
Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management expected some debt reduction by year-end FY24 and said "in FY25 our debt will go down for sure". By Q1 FY25 management said it was comfortable at current debt levels and preferred deploying capital into growth, and net debt was \~₹130-140 crore in Q2 FY25 with debt of ₹827 crore and D/E of 0.64 at the latest snapshot.
- TPS recovery and return to growth from Q2 FY24
Missed - At the Q1 FY24 call, management said the TPS segment would recover and return to growth trajectory from Q2 FY24 onwards, with a large recovery expected in Q2 itself. TPS revenue declined from ₹890 crore in FY23 to ₹758 crore in FY24 and ₹764 crore in FY25 before recovering to ₹847 crore in FY26, with segment PBIT margin negative through FY26.
- Grow other cloud-provider accounts from $5-10 million toward $20-100 million
Pending - At the Q4 FY23 call, management expected to grow other cloud-provider accounts from $5-10 million annual business toward $20-100 million. The company served three of five major hyperscalers by Q1 FY24 and engaged with four of the top six by Q4 FY26, but no account-level revenue figures are disclosed to verify the target.
- Second $100 million customer account in hyperscaler/cloud space
Delivered - At the Q4 FY23 call, management expected to add a second $100 million customer account in the hyperscaler/cloud space, with top 2 customers expected to cross \~$100 million each. By Q1 FY24, another hyperscaler customer had been advanced to a total annualized contract value of $100 million, and by Q3 FY25 the largest customer had crossed $100 million with almost $100 million expected from the second largest.
- FY24 revenue ₹7,000-7,500 crore, EBITDA ₹400-450 crore, PAT ₹140-175 crore
Partial - At the Q4 FY23 call, management guided FY24 revenue of ₹7,000-7,500 crore, EBITDA of ₹400-450 crore and PAT of ₹140-175 crore, reiterated at Q2 FY24 as "northwards of" the ranges. FY24 revenue was ₹6,282 crore and PAT ₹138 crore, both below guidance, while EBITDA was ₹428 crore, within guidance.
- Data center hypergrowth over the next 3-5 years
On track - At the Q3 FY23 call, management said data center was expected to continue to grow over the next 3-5 years, along with connected smart buildings, wireless networking, 5G LTE and cybersecurity as hyper-growth areas, with Q2 FY25 adding a 25-30% revenue contribution target over 3-4 years. Data center revenue grew from \~$90 million in FY23 to $110-115 million in FY24 and \~17% of FY26 revenue, with Q1 FY27 guidance expecting \~30% contribution in FY27.
- Severance costs to taper down and become insignificant from FY24
Missed - At the Q3 FY23 call, management said Q4 FY23 would have some severance expenses but from FY24 the company would not see those severance expenses. Severance guidance was repeatedly extended through FY24 and FY25, folded into FY26 exceptional items of ₹40-50 crore and then extended into FY27, with exceptional losses of ₹63 crore in FY26 and ₹19 crore in Q1 FY27.
- Capex of ₹8-10 crore every year, funded from internal accruals
Pending - At the Q3 FY23 call, management guided capex of ₹8-10 crore every year, describing the company as capex-light and funded from internal accruals, later refined to $2.5-3.5 million every year at Q2 FY24. The reported financials disclose no actual capex figures (Capex "-") and only nil CWIP from FY24 onward, so no stated outcome exists against which to settle the promise.
- Cybersecurity business to double over 12-24 months
Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, management expected the recently acquired cybersecurity business ($4-5 million revenue) to double over the next 12-24 months, with Q1 FY24 adding an expectation of 5-10% of overall revenue over the next 12-24 months. That horizon lapsed by September 2024; the business added more than 15 customers in Q2 FY24 and built SOC operations in America, Bangalore and Mumbai, but no revenue figure for the unit is disclosed to confirm the doubling.
- 15-20% organic growth over the next couple of years
Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management expected 15-20% organic growth over the next couple of years, restated at Q4 FY23 as growing over market at 15-20% organically and confirmed at Q1 FY24 for a 3-4 year medium term. FY23 revenue grew 17%, but FY24 was flat at -0.10%, FY25 declined 5.01% and FY26 grew 5.95%.
- TPS business to grow 15-20% with 80:20 product-services mix
Missed - At the Q1 FY23 call, management expected the TPS business to grow at 15-20%, with the overall revenue mix between products and services remaining 80:20. TPS revenue declined from ₹890 crore in FY23 to ₹758 crore in FY24 and ₹764 crore in FY25 before recovering to ₹847 crore in FY26, with segment PBIT margin negative from FY24 through FY26 and contribution of 12-15% of revenue.
- Add 300+ personnel in low-cost geographies over 12 months, 100-200 bps margin accretive
Delivered - At the Q1 FY23 call, management expected to add at least 300 personnel in low-cost geographies like India over the next 12 months, expected to be margin accretive by 100-200 bps. The Bangalore Center of Excellence was ramped from 0 to 500 people by Q2 FY23, FY24 margin expansion of over 250 bps was attributed in part to India Center of Excellence productivity, and the India capability center had 630+ employees by Q1 FY27.
- Operating margin progression to 9-10% over the next couple of years
Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management expected operating margin to move to 9-10% over the next couple of years with a stepwise path from 6% to 10%, reiterated through a Q2 FY24 three-year target of exiting upward of 9% and Q4 FY24's \~10% over the next couple of years. FY24 EBITDA margin was 6.8%, FY25 was 8.9% and FY26 was 9.0%, with quarterly peaks of 9.0% in Q2 FY25 and 9.5% in Q4 FY25; the 10% level was not reached on a full-year basis by FY26.
- FY23 revenue growth 15-20%, gross margin 27-28%, operating margin 5-6%
Partial - At the Q1 FY23 call, management guided FY23 revenue growth of 15-20%, gross margin of 27-28%, and operating margin of 5-6%. FY23 revenue grew 17% to ₹6,288 crore, within the guided range, while gross margin was 26.1% and EBITDA margin 4.3%, both below the guided ranges.