Key Takeaways
- Resilient top line, margin squeeze: Revenue grew 9.8% YoY in Q4 FY25 despite an urban slowdown, but rising input costs compressed margins, with normalization expected to take 6 to 9 months.
- Bakery is the growth engine: The Bakery segment surged 19% YoY, driven by both B2B and the English Oven brand, while Biscuits grew a steadier 7%.
- Indore facility is a strategic unlock: Commissioned in May 2025, the new plant enables premiumization, differentiated NPD, and stronger export logistics, with utilization expected to hit 50-70% within 60 days.
- A deliberate innovation push is underway: Management is betting on differentiated, health-forward products like NaturBaked and butter cookies, targeting 5% of revenue from NPD in FY26, though the payoff is a multi-year story.
- What to watch next quarter: The pace of margin recovery as calibrated price hikes conclude in Q1 FY26, the initial volume ramp from the Indore and Khopoli plants, and any demand signal from the QSR channel.
Margin Trajectory & Input Costs
- The core pressure: Sharp inflation in key inputs, particularly wheat and palm oil, compressed gross margins, forcing calibrated price increases that were deliberately staggered to avoid shocking the consumer.
- Recovery is a slow grind: Management expects margin normalization to take 6 to 9 months, stretching through H1 FY26, because price actions were not designed to instantly cover all cost increases.
- Commodity outlook is mixed: Palm oil prices have softened and a recent import duty cut provides a tailwind, but this is partially offset by inflation in sugar and milk, preventing any near-term price rollbacks.
- Cost optimization continues: The company is driving operational efficiencies in manufacturing and supply chain to support margins, alongside a revamp of its IT infrastructure with AI and ML integration.
- Full-year margin target: Management expects to achieve a 13% to 14% EBITDA margin range for FY26, with visibility that it will take almost until the end of Q3 to neutralize the margin impact and return to prior levels.
Manu Talwar: "So look, Amit, what I see, it may take almost H1 by the time the normalization of kind of margins happen for us, right? It will start getting better. But it will take about 6 to 9 months."
Segment Performance & Demand
- Bakery outperforms: The Bakery segment grew 19% YoY, fueled by strong growth in both the B2B institutional business and the retail-facing English Oven brand, with frozen sweet and savory products gaining traction.
- Biscuits steady, not stellar: Domestic and export biscuit revenue grew 7% YoY, with a positive demand trend building from Q4 after a sluggish first three quarters of FY25.
- Rural recovery, urban lag: A steady recovery in rural consumption was observed, with mild uptrading within low-MRP packs, while urban demand remained soft, exaggerated by higher consumer prices from input cost pass-through.
- Q-commerce is a bright spot: The channel continues to perform well, especially for newer product formats, with English Oven already seeing over 25% of its contribution from quick commerce.
- QSR channel still uncertain: QSR partners remain committed to expansion, and some signs of improvement are visible, but management needs to observe more quarters to confirm a trend.
Strategic Capacity Expansion
- Indore facility commissioned: The new plant started operations in May 2025, enhancing capability for differentiated biscuit products, improving export logistics via proximity to ports, and strengthening the supply chain for West and Central India.
- Rapid ramp-up planned: Management expects to hit 50% to 70% capacity utilization within the next 50 to 60 days, with the objective to maximize use of the new line quickly.
- Bakery expansion for pan-India reach: Two new bakery facilities in Calcutta and Maharashtra are progressing, strategically aligned to make English Oven a truly national brand and to serve QSR partners currently beyond reach due to supply constraints.
- Capex cycle to ease: With the Khopoli facility also commissioning in FY26, the heavy capex cycle will start coming down considerably from FY27, signaling a shift from investment to harvesting.
- Calcutta plant to open eastern markets: The Calcutta bakery will start adding to volumes from Q2, introducing the English Oven brand to eastern markets, though a full ramp-up will take a few quarters.
Innovation & Premiumization
- Differentiation over me-too: Management is explicit that all new biscuit launches will be differentiated products, not me-too offerings, with recent examples including shortbread cookies made with 25% butter and no palm oil, and animal-shaped Teddies crackers.
- Health-forward pivot: The company is replacing maida with atta across both Biscuit and Bakery segments, and launched NaturBaked, a clean-label brand positioned as "honest" and "clean," about a month ago with positive early results.
- NPD is a multi-year bet: While the innovation pipeline is aggressive over the next 9 to 15 months, new products are not expected to contribute substantially in FY26 itself, with the goal being to create a differentiated revenue growth trajectory over subsequent financial years.
- NPD revenue target: Management is targeting close to 5% of revenue contribution from new product development in FY26.
- Bakery innovation moves faster: Consumer adoption of health-focused products is much faster-paced in Bakery compared to Biscuits, leading to quicker action on that side of the portfolio.
Manu Talwar: "And as I said earlier that on the Biscuit especially, we're very clear that we won't be launching me-too products. Our all launches will be differentiated products as we have just done with 2, 3 products in the last 90 days, and we will build up that."
Distribution & Channel Strategy
- Aggressive traditional trade expansion: The company plans to grow its Cremica-preferred outlet (CPO) network by almost 30% in FY26, with calibrated manpower deployment for sustainable growth.
- Quick commerce scale-up in Biscuits: Management has very aggressive plans to grow the Biscuit business several times over on quick commerce, partnering with major platforms and launching impulse-friendly SKUs with city-level inventory planning.
- English Oven already quick-commerce heavy: The brand already derives over 25% of its contribution from quick commerce, with a plan to continue building this quarter-on-quarter.
- Indore unlocks geographic reach: The new facility strengthens the company's ability to drive presence in Madhya Pradesh, e-commerce, and quick commerce channels across West and Central India, including Maharashtra and Gujarat.
Export & External Uncertainties
- Exports remain strong but cautious: Export portfolios continued to perform well, but the announcement of potential tariff changes toward the end of Q4 introduced uncertainty into the outlook.
- Confident in navigating tariffs: Despite potential tariff changes, management remains confident in the strength of its global partnerships and its ability to navigate market dynamics while maintaining growth momentum.
- Red Sea disruption persists: The Red Sea issue has not gone away, and the marginal improvement in debtor days came only slightly from the export side, with a 10% overall improvement over FY24.
- Export volume mix: Exports contribute 50% to 53% of biscuit volumes, per management's response to an analyst query.
Guidance & Commitments
| Commitment | Specifics | Timeline |
|---|---|---|
| B2C revenue growth | Biscuit and Bakery together to grow low to mid-teens on an annualized basis, more back-ended | FY26 |
| Domestic biscuit growth | Low teens growth on a full-year basis | FY26 |
| Export growth | Mid-teens growth on an annualized basis | FY26 |
| Bakery segment growth | Mid to high teens growth | FY26 |
| EBITDA margin | Achieve 13% to 14% range on a full-year basis | FY26 |
| Margin normalization | Return to earlier margins; will take almost up to end of Q3 | By end of Q3 FY26 |
| Volume growth | Double-digit volume growth | FY26 |
| NPD revenue contribution | Close to 5% of revenue from new products | FY26 |
| Indore utilization | Hit 50% to 70% capacity utilization | Next 50 to 60 days |
| CPO outlet expansion | Grow Cremica-preferred outlets by almost 30% | FY26 |
| Capex cycle reduction | Capex to start coming down considerably | From FY27 |
Key Metrics
| Metric | Q4 FY25 |
|---|---|
| Consolidated revenue | ₹446.1 cr, +9.8% YoY |
| Biscuit segment revenue | ₹257 cr, +7% YoY |
| Bakery segment revenue | ₹179 cr, +19% YoY |
| EBITDA | ₹55.6 cr |
| EBITDA margin | 12.5% |
| PAT | ₹34.3 cr, +2% YoY |
| PAT margin | 7.7% |
| FY25 consolidated revenue | ₹1,873.9 cr, +15.4% YoY |
| FY25 EBITDA | ₹251.5 cr, +3.7% YoY |
| FY25 EBITDA margin | 13.4% |
| FY25 PAT | ₹143.2 cr |
| FY25 PAT margin | 7.6% |
| Final dividend recommended | ₹3 per equity share |
| FY26 B2C revenue growth guidance | Low to mid-teens, more back-ended |
| FY26 domestic biscuits growth guidance | Low teens on annualized basis |
| FY26 export growth guidance | Mid-teens on annualized basis |
| FY26 Bakery growth guidance | Mid to high teens |
| FY26 volume growth target | Double-digit |
| FY26 NPD revenue contribution target | Close to 5% of revenue |
| FY26 margin normalization timeline | 6 to 9 months, likely by end of Q3 FY26 |
| Indore facility annual capacity | 21,000 tonnes, expected 50–70% utilization in 50–60 days |
| Peak revenue potential from new facilities | Close to ₹3,400 cr on full utilization (Indore, Khopoli, Calcutta combined) |
| FY25 volume growth | High single-digit in both Biscuit and Bakery |
| Biscuit export volume contribution | 50% to 53% of total biscuit volume |
| Bakery B2B revenue share | Approximately 11% to 12% of total revenue |
| Quick commerce share in English Oven | Over 25% |
| CPO outlet growth plan for FY26 | ~30% increase |
| Debtor days improvement | Improved by 10% over FY24 |
| Inventory increase | ₹30 cr YoY, expected to normalize by June end |