Key Takeaways
- Growth with margin, despite inflation: Revenue grew 16% YoY while gross margin improved to 47.2%, a quarter management frames as delivering both growth and margin under full inflation and West Asia disruption.
- Inflation is the defining risk: Q1 inflation impact was ~1.5% and largely neutralized, but Q2 is "much higher and more challenging"; price actions will cover most, not all, with full coverage only by Q3.
- Bakery is the standout: Bakery revenue grew 17.5% YoY, with QSR finally back to double-digit growth after two weak years, and new plants in Kolkata and Khopoli now ramping.
- Exports recovered defensively: High-double-digit export growth despite vessel shortages and higher freight; U.S. contribution doubled as a percentage YoY, and customers kept co-creating even under tariffs.
- What to watch next quarter: Whether Q2 margin holds up under sharper commodity inflation, the pace of Khopoli and Kolkata ramp-ups, and any escalation in West Asia that could hit both input costs and export logistics.
Inflation & Margin Trajectory
- Three-front pressure: Raw material and packaging inflation, fuel cost escalation, and the consequent minimum wage hike all hit in Q1; West Asia was an important contributor but not the only one.
- Q1 largely neutralized: Calibrated price increases (~2–3% company-wide, ~2–2.5% in consumer business) plus Project IMPACT cost optimization left only a marginal residual impact; gross margin improved to 47.2% from 45.6% YoY.
- Q2 is the squeeze: Large part of the inflationary impact started coming toward end of Q1, making Q2 much higher and more challenging; actions already initiated will cover most but not entirely, with Q3 expected to be fully covered.
- Margin walk: EBITDA came in at 13.1% despite steep inflation; margins have been improving quarter-on-quarter for the past 2–3 quarters, but management does not expect major improvement in Q2.
- Project IMPACT: Expected to deliver close to 0.4% to 0.5% this year from the cost impact program.
- FY30 ambition: Over the next 3–4 years, management wants to reach EBITDA closer to 16%, between 15% and 16%, alongside a ₹4,000 crore revenue milestone.
Manu Talwar: "Our target still remains that by quarter 4 of this financial year, we get to our 14% EBITDA target."
Bakery: The Growth Engine
- Segment momentum: Bakery revenue grew 17.5% YoY and 40% vs Q1 FY25; both English Oven retail and QSR business have grown well.
- QSR turnaround: After two years of lower growth as QSRs struggled, the tide has turned with good double-digit growth in Q1; management is very confident the positive trend will continue.
- Kolkata ramp: Commissioned in Q4 FY26, the Kolkata unit is now servicing East markets; English Oven brand has been very well accepted, and both retail and QSR offtake have started moving well.
- Khopoli stabilization: Commissioned in March 2026, the Maharashtra plant is stabilizing well and expected to scale toward full capacities over coming quarters, strengthening the West footprint where English Oven was previously capacity-constrained.
- West India ambition: Mumbai, Pune and other Maharashtra markets will see huge distribution investment; management wants very-high-double-digit growth in western India over the next few years.
- Pan-India aspiration: Clear-cut goal to make English Oven a pan-India strong brand; over the next 4 years, substantial buildup of non-North business is planned, with Bangalore, Karnataka and Chennai as growth sources.
Manu Talwar: "We're clearly seeing very positive trends after many quarters on the QSR business and very, very confident these are trends are here to continue now. So clearly, the industry is now back on an upswing."
Biscuits & Distribution
- Biscuit performance: Revenue grew 15.7% YoY and 19% vs Q1 FY25; domestic biscuit growth was high-single digits, driven by both pricing and volume.
- Base effect caveat: The 9% B2C biscuit growth came on a fairly low base, per an analyst's characterization, not confirmed by management.
- Competitive intensity: Competition remains very intense on the biscuit side, especially in Upper North / North India; marketing and trade promotion spend has gone up in response.
- Upcountry shift: Continuous investment over 3–4 years in Haryana, Rajasthan and UP has made upcountry revenues almost equal to NCR.
- Distribution expansion: Target of adding 40,000 billed outlets above ₹200 per outlet this year, almost 12–13% increase over previous year, focused largely within a 400 km radius of the Punjab plant.
- Central market entry: MP plant has started investing in the central market (MP, parts of Maharashtra and Gujarat); no instant large results expected, but continuous investment over the next few quarters should start showing movement of the Cremica brand.
- Premium push: Investing behind lead varieties (Coconut, Bourbon, Digestive) and premium creams and premium cookies; short bread is growing on e-commerce quarter-on-quarter at a healthy rate.
Exports & International
- Defensive recovery: Q1 export business delivered healthy high-double-digit growth even as vessel availability remained unnormalized and freight and logistics costs rose further; U.S. market is back on a growth trajectory.
- No restocking: Growth pertained to the quarter itself plus new innovations that started clicking with retailers; June shipments were delayed due to the geopolitical crisis, balancing out any March spillover.
- Customer concentration: More than 95–98% of export business comes from existing customers; the strategy is consistently adding newer SKUs to existing customers through innovation.
- U.S. momentum: U.S. contribution doubled as a percentage YoY; not the biggest market but has grown over the last 3–4 years. New launches include peanut butter, successfully adding another SKU with Walmart.
- Tariff resilience: Even when tariffs were in place, no U.S. customers stopped working on future capabilities and projects; retailers still visit India and co-create products to U.S. standards.
- FTA tailwinds: New Zealand FTA has just happened; U.K. is turning out to be a good market.
- Export incentives: Still not happening; nothing from government yet on the incentive side.
Suvir Bector: "The great part is that even when the tariffs were there, none of the customers stopped working with us on future capabilities and future projects, right? So they've put an immense faith in our organization, looking at our capabilities and the technology that we have."
New Launches & Capacity Build-Out
- Naturbaked: Clean label health brand launched, reflecting commitment to healthy and clean label proposition; crossed monthly revenue rate of ₹1 crore and is expected to ramp quarter after quarter.
- Quick commerce: Grew 58% YoY and continues to be of strategic significance.
- Capacity coverage: Total capacity coverage stands at ₹3,400–3,500 crore; as business grows, more capacity investment will be needed in respective territories.
- Bangalore plant: Location shortlisted and getting ready; capex amount still under finalization.
- Contract manufacturing: Management plans to leverage contract manufacturing more in the future, though quality remains the stated differentiator.
- Brand investment: Objective is to keep strengthening brand investment from the current ~4% of consumer businesses; a brand study for Cremica is in the process of being finalized.
Manu Talwar: "And one thing which creates a differentiation for us is quality of our products. The quality of our product is the biggest driver."
Guidance & Commitments
| Commitment | Specifics | Timeline |
|---|---|---|
| Full-year revenue growth | Mid-teens, "17–19" | FY27 |
| Q4 EBITDA margin | 14% for the quarter | Q4 FY27 |
| Q2 inflation coverage | Most but not entirely covered; Q3 fully covered | Q2 FY27 |
| Project IMPACT savings | Close to 0.4%–0.5% | FY27 |
| Distribution expansion | Add 40,000 billed outlets above ₹200 per outlet | FY27 |
| Biscuit growth | Low-teens full-year, confident of low-double digit | FY27 |
| Bakery growth | Low-teens | FY27 |
| Export growth | Close to mid-teens | FY27 |
| FY30 EBITDA | 15%–16% | FY30 |
| FY30 revenue | ₹4,000 crores | FY30 |
| Pan-India English Oven | Substantial buildup of non-North business | Next 4 years |
Key Metrics
| Metric | Q1 FY27 |
|---|---|
| Revenue from operations | ₹548.7 crores, +16% YoY and +12.9% QoQ |
| Gross profit | ₹258.9 crores, +20% YoY |
| Gross margin | 47.2%, up from 45.6% in Q1 FY26 |
| EBITDA | ₹72.1 crores, +23.8% YoY |
| EBITDA margin | 13.1%, +80 bps YoY |
| PAT | ₹38.8 crores, +25.5% YoY |
| PAT margin | 7.1% |
| Biscuit segment revenue | ₹325 crores, +15.7% YoY and +19% vs Q1 FY25 |
| Bakery segment revenue | ₹215 crores, +17.5% YoY and +40% vs Q1 FY25 |
| Domestic biscuit sales growth | High-single digits YoY |
| Quick commerce growth | 58% YoY |
| Export contribution to revenue | ~35% |
| U.S. share of exports | 23%–25%, doubled as a percentage from Q1 FY26 |
| Naturbaked monthly revenue run rate | ₹1 crore |
| Contract manufacturing mix | 1%–1.5% of top line |
| General trade revenue from Upper North | ~50%, with 50% from Rest of India |
| English Oven revenue from North India | ~80% |
| Billed outlet addition target (FY27) | 40,000 outlets above ₹200 per outlet, +12%–13% over previous year |
| Price increase taken (company overall) | 2%–3%; consumer business about 2%–2.5% |
| Inflationary impact in Q1 | ~1.5% YoY; Q2 expected higher |
| Project IMPACT cost savings target (FY27) | 0.4%–0.5% |
| Q4 FY27 EBITDA margin target | 14% for the quarter |
| FY30 EBITDA margin target | 15%–16% |
| FY27 revenue growth guidance | Mid-teens, 17%–19% |
| FY30 revenue milestone target | ₹4,000 crores |
| Current capex revenue coverage | ₹3,400–3,500 crores at current price levels |
| FY27 new capex (ex-spillover) | ~₹200 crores, funded 60% internal and 40% debt |
| Calcutta plant investment | ~₹20 crores, commissioned last year |
| Brand investment on consumer businesses | ~4% of Cremica and English Oven revenue |
| B2B (QSR) segment growth | Good double-digit YoY in Q1 |
| Export customer concentration | 95%–98% from existing customers |
| Headline consumer inflation (June 2026) | ~4.4% |