1. FY27 capex of around ₹600 crore-plus Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management planned FY27 capex at around 600 crore-plus, with another around 900 crore to be added once Brahma (Bhopal) starts, spending going into next year and the year after. No Q1 FY27 capex disclosure is on record; last year's capex spent was \~379 crore.
2. Export order book to end FY27 at around $200 million Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management expected the export order book to end the year at around $200 million, from roughly $115 million currently. Q1 FY27 export order book stood around $115 million, with no further update in our record.
3. FY27 revenue growth in the high 20s Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said full-year FY27 revenue growth should be "high 20s" if all goes well. Q1 FY27 revenue grew 29.28% YoY to 820 crores, consistent with that pace.
4. FY27 EBITDA margin of at least 13% Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management expected FY27 EBITDA margin to get back to at least 13%, versus 13.3% in FY24-25, last year being lower on a one-off correction. Q1 FY27 OPM was 0.24%, though management reported the first-ever positive EBITDA in a first quarter.
5. FX losses mitigated by at least 20-25% in FY27 Pending - At the Q1 FY27 call, management said FX losses already booked should be mitigated to at least 20-25% this financial year, and maybe more in coming years, from a 50-60% improvement in exchange rate variation on foreign currency contracts. No FX mitigation disclosure is on record for Q1 FY27.
6. R&D spend of around 7% of revenue Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management set a sustainable R&D spend target "around 7%", having reached 6.25% of revenue last year; at the Q1 FY27 call this was reiterated as \~7% of top line, above 300 crore with 25% growth, versus 251 crore last year. FY26 R&D spend was 6.25% of revenue (251 crores); Q1 FY27 spend is not disclosed in our record.
7. Railway order inflow of ₹10,000-12,000 crores in FY27 Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management expected next year railway order inflow of 10,000-12,000 crores, \~70% commuter rail and 30% metro, with six current tenders \~8,000 crores. Q1 FY27 shows six live metro tenders, including Chennai, Delhi Metro RS20/RS21, UP metro extension, Pune and MMRDL Line 12, but no railway order inflow disclosed for Q1.
8. Defence execution of ₹1,500-2,000 crore in FY27 Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management expected defence execution "somewhere between 1500-2000 crore" this year against a roughly 3,000 crore defence order book. Q1 FY27 defence grew 25% year-on-year, with no full-year defence revenue total yet.
9. Rail & Metro execution of at least ₹2,000 crores in FY27 Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management expected Rail & Metro execution "at least 2000 crores" this year versus \~1,000 crore executed last year. Q1 FY27 Rail & Metro grew 178%, with no FY27 revenue total yet.
10. First-half FY27 execution of 30-35% of annual revenue Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management aimed to lift first-half execution from the typical 15-20% to 30-35%; at the Q1 FY27 call the spread target was \~35% of planned revenue by Q2 and \~70% by Q3. Q1 FY27 revenue was 820 crores, roughly 15% of a high-20s-growth year, below the 30-35% H1 target pace.
11. Defence and Rail & Metro at 57-58% of FY27 revenue Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management guided defence and Rail & Metro "should again be in that range, 57-58%" this year, with a medium-to-long-term mix of rail & metro plus defence at 65-70%; the Q1 FY27 call reiterated 65-70% combined, defence possibly up to 50% and rail down to 20%. Q1 FY27 mix was defence 35%, rail & metro 24%, mining & construction 41% - combined 59%, within the guided range.
12. MRVC project finalized in six months Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management said the MRVC project needed "another six months for it to be finalized. That is a very optimistic timeline", followed by a 2.5-3 year cycle for proto then bulk production. Q1 FY27 shows MRVC still a live component of the 40,000 crore bidding pipeline, with no finalization disclosed.
13. Open FY27 with an executable order book of 7,000-8,000 crore Missed - At the Q4 FY26 call, management aimed to open next year with an executable order book of 7,000-8,000 crore and add 10,000-12,000 crores year-on-year. The company opened the year with a 5,500 crore executable order book - "first time in the history of the company" - and by Q1 FY27 the total order book stood a little above 16,000 crore.
14. Add 15,900 crores to the order book in FY27, ending at \~24,000 crores Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management targeted adding order book equal to last year's closing 15,900 crores and, with \~6,000 crore executed, ending the year "at around 24000 crore"; at the Q1 FY27 call inflow expectation was 20,000 crore "with around 30, 40% probability". Q1 FY27 order book stood a little above 16,000 crore, with year-to-date inflow of 1,181 crore.
15. AMCA project bid decided in 2-3 months Missed - At the Q4 FY26 call, management said the AMCA bid - a 15,000 crore ticket with five prototypes, OPEX only - would be decided "maybe another two, three months"; at the Q1 FY27 call bidding "shortly" with partners was still expected. No bid decision is disclosed in our record as of 3rd September 2026, well past the stated horizon.
16. High-speed train first car body shell by August 2026, first train at the beginning of next calendar year On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management expected the first high-speed train car body shell "out by August" and the first train at the beginning of the next calendar year, with one train delivered in the current financial year; by Q1 FY27, delivery was expected four to five months from then. By June 2026 the prototype had reached the complete car body shell stage, with testing to finish by around a year from the call.
17. 60-ton and 100-ton electric dump trucks developed in FY27 Pending - At the Q4 FY26 call, management intended to develop the 60-ton and 100-ton electric dump trucks "this year", with the 190-ton version "maybe after a couple of years". A 21 cubic meter electric rope shovel and a 35-ton electric dump truck have been put into use, but no 60-ton or 100-ton development is disclosed in our record.
18. Export order for metro rolling stock in 2-3 months Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management said one export order for metro rolling stock was expected "in the coming two to three months". By Q4 FY26 a $60-million rolling stock order from the Africa region was booked, alongside a DMRC international subsidiary (DMIL) agreement for Tel Aviv and Dublin metro opportunities.
19. Mining export orders from GCC/Middle East in FY26 Delivered - At the Q3 FY26 call, management said mining export orders from the GCC / Middle East were expected "in the current financial year" - "these will be big orders"; the Q1 FY27 call shifted HEMM export orders from the Middle East to the next two to three months. A major West Asia mining equipment order was booked in Q4 FY26, and the Q1 FY27 export order book stood around $115 million.
20. Light armored multipurpose vehicle fielding targeted end-December 2025, trials 1-1.5 years Partial - At the Q3 FY26 call, management said BEML would field the LAMV by end of that month, with extensive trials to follow before price opening; by Q4 FY26 the vehicle was only beginning trials, having started on 31 March 2026, with a year of extensive trials and EMI/AMC expected around August-September next year. Fielding slipped roughly a quarter, but trials are underway as described.
21. Defence pipeline: HMV at least ₹1,000 crores, engineered equipment ₹1,000-1,500 crores, bridging systems \~₹1,000 crores Pending - At the Q3 FY26 call, management sized the defence order pipeline at "at least 1,000 crores" for high-mobility vehicles, around 1,000 to 1,500 crores for engineered equipment, and "more than 1,000 crores" for 45 to 47 combat engineering bridging systems. Q4 FY26 showed HMV visibility of \~950 crores and the Sarvatra bridging system 47 bridges at \~1,500 crores with AoN in place; Q1 FY27 added ARB/DRDO-cleared 230 numbers and further vehicle programmes.
22. Mumbai Metro - all three projects complete in 3-4 years Pending - At the Q3 FY26 call, management said the Mumbai Metro 33 pending train sets plus the 63, 21 and 12 train-set contracts would be completed "in the coming three to four years"; by Q4 FY26 execution was to start this year "provided Mandali Depot is ready". The Mumbai corporation tender has since been cancelled, and no Mumbai Metro delivery start is disclosed in our record.
23. Bhopal project financial closure in a couple of months Partial - At the Q3 FY26 call, management said the Bhopal project would be debt-financed, with first-phase financial closure expected "another couple of months from now" and civil works commencing in two months. Civil works had already started in October 2025, with the boundary wall almost 50% ready, but no financial closure disclosure is on record.
24. Maritime cranes - DPR within two months, revenue in 3-3.5 years, ₹5,000 crores potential Pending - At the Q3 FY26 call, management said the maritime crane detailed project report should be ready within two months, revenue starting "maybe three years to three and a half years from now", reaching INR5,000 crores at full potential per annum; the Q1 FY27 call stretched the ship-to-shore crane development cycle to at least three to four years. No DPR completion or maritime crane revenue is disclosed in our record.
25. TBM pilot project of four 6.5-metre machines "very soon" Pending - At the Q3 FY26 call, management said they would start a pilot project "very soon" building four 6.5-metre diameter Tunnel Boring Machines for metro projects, with clean-sheet design taking "at least two and a half years"; the Q1 FY27 call extended development to at least three years. No TBM pilot project start is disclosed in our record; government support via a development contract is expected at the development stage.
26. Onboard high-end suppliers for critical aggregates within a couple of months Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management expected to onboard more high-end suppliers for critical aggregates - cabin, furnishing, backbone tube - "as a couple of months", with partial insourcing of cabin furnishing. By Q3 FY26, HMV cabin constraints had eased 80% to 90%, with three partners for Vande Bharat Sleeper interior panels, an international player for gangways, three-four traction motor sources, and three to four domestic players each for wheelsets and bogies.
27. Defence revenue up 20% in FY26 Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management said of Defence "we should do 20% more this year". Defence vertical revenue grew from 1,000 crores to 1,500 crores in FY26, a 50% increase.
28. Defence turnover more than doubling in FY26 Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management said that with 100% execution of orders in hand, Defence turnover would see "more than doubling" in FY26; by Q4 FY26 the FY27 execution guide was "somewhere between 1500-2000 crore" against a roughly 3,000 crore defence order book. Defence revenue grew from 1,000 crores to 1,500 crores in FY26, with Q1 FY27 up 25% year-on-year.
29. Working capital down by at least 15% Pending - At the Q4 FY25 call, management aimed to bring working capital down by at least 15%; this was raised at Q3 FY26 to reducing inventory by at least 20% "on a war footing" and at Q4 FY26 to a working capital reduction "by at least 20% this year". Inventory and working capital days went down at Q3 FY26, inventory fell at Q4 FY26 while debtors rose on skewed Q4 sales, and working capital improved at Q1 FY27, but no specific percentage reduction is disclosed in our record.
30. FY26 capex of ₹600 crores Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management said for FY26 "We are supposed to spend around 600 crores"; the Q1 FY27 call then set FY27 capex at around 600 crore-plus, with the \~900 crore Brahma addition falling into later years. FY26 capex came in at an all-time high of 379 crores including CWIP of 191 crores.
31. Employee expenses down to around 17% of revenue Pending - At the Q4 FY25 call, management reiterated employee expenses would be brought down to around 17% of revenue, calling 17% "a big challenge"; the Q4 FY26 call repeated the "around 17%" goal given floor wages and new labour codes. Employee count fell from 4,798 (Dec '24) to 4,622 (Dec '25) and employee cost as % of revenue went down slightly, but no specific percentage is disclosed for FY26 or Q1 FY27 in our record.
32. Bhopal facility taking metro/rolling stock capacity to 700-800 cars per annum in 2-3 years On track - At the Q4 FY25 call, management said the Bhopal facility would take total metro/rolling stock capacity to 700-800 cars per annum in phases, full capacity in "coming 2 to 3 years' time"; the board later approved INR1,500 crores in two phases with Phase 1 adding at least 300 cars per annum in 18-24 months, and Q1 FY27 set first equipment roll-out 18 months from construction start. Civil works started in October 2025 and the facility was inaugurated by the Union Minister of Defence, with no capacity addition completed yet.
33. Bangalore rail facility operational by November-December 2025 Delivered - At the Q4 FY25 call, management said the Bangalore rail facility would be operational by November-December 2025, adding around 150 more to capacity. The new high-speed rail facility in the Bangalore complex was inaugurated by the Union Minister of Railways, and the Aditya facility's high-speed train production started about a month before the Q1 FY27 call, the plant having been inaugurated 25 April.
34. Rail & Metro revenue more than double FY25 in FY26 Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, Director Rail & Metro committed Rail & Metro revenue would be "more than double what we did last year"; by Q4 FY26 the FY27 execution guide was "at least 2000 crores" versus \~1,000 crore executed last year. FY26 Rail & Metro revenue was 24% of total revenue, roughly 1,044 crores, against FY25's \~1,000 crores; Q1 FY27 grew 178%.
35. Metro deliveries of around 20 train sets in FY26 Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, Director Rail & Metro committed metro deliveries starting September/October with plans to send around 20 train sets in FY26; by Q3 FY26 the Bangalore Metro expectation was eight to nine trains in the year, and the Q1 FY27 call set at least 20-25 Bangalore trains for FY27. Two Bangalore Metro trains were delivered as of December 2025, with no FY26 total delivery count on record.
36. All Vande Bharat sleeper trains delivered by December 2025 Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, Director Rail & Metro committed all Vande Bharat trains delivered "by the end of this year by December", with balance trains starting from July; by Q3 FY26, 20-25 trains were slated for supply in FY27. The first Vande Bharat Sleeper was flagged off and entered commercial usage in January 2026, all 10 car body shells having been ready as of March 2025.
37. EBITDA margin improvement of 150 bps over FY25 Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided EBITDA margin improvement of 150 basis points over last year, supported by mix shift toward systems, commuter rail, high-end mining, defence and sustenance; later guidance set FY27 at "at least 13%" and \~16% as sustainable. FY25 EBITDA margin was 13.2%; FY26 EBITDA fell 38% to 328 crores, with OPM at 6.87%, hit by a \~250 crore one-time legacy correction and gratuity provision.
38. Revenue growth of 20% CAGR Partial - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided 20% CAGR revenue growth as "very much achievable", backed by Bangalore Metro execution, high mobility vehicle platform orders above ₹1,500 crore and expected emergency procurement orders; guidance was hedged to "anything between 15% to 20%" at Q3 FY26 and set to "high 20s" for FY27 at Q1 FY27. FY26 revenue grew 8.16% to 4,351 crores, with Q1 FY27 up 29.28% to 820 crores.
39. Order book doubling - FY26 closing order book around ₹22,000-23,000 crores Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management guided order book doubling, expecting "at least a double or little more than double ordering flow as compared to FY24" and a closing order book "around Rs 22,000, Rs 23,000 Crs"; at Q3 FY26 the order book was still expected to cross INR20,000 crores, and at Q4 FY26 the target was \~24,000 crore. FY26 closed with a highest-ever order book of 15,896 crores, management self-scoring a shortfall of almost 4,000 crores on delayed export and MOD orders and unfinalized L1 HM projects.
40. Export orders from Russia supplied in FY24 Delivered - In the FY23 Annual Report, management said export orders bagged from Russia were to be supplied in FY 2023-24. The FY24 Annual Report records export orders secured from Russia with supplies commencing during FY 2023-24; no completion disclosure is on record.
41. Driverless Metro Cars for Mumbai Metro completed within 3 years (by FY25) Missed - In the FY22 Annual Report, management said supply of Driverless Metro Cars for Mumbai Metro was under execution and would be completed in the next 3 years, by FY25. At Q3 FY26 the Mumbai Metro 33 pending train sets plus the 63, 21 and 12 train-set contracts were planned over three to four years; at Q4 FY26 execution was to start "provided Mandali Depot is ready", and by Q1 FY27 the Mumbai corporation tender had been cancelled.
42. Vande Bharat Sleeper supplies to commence in FY24 Missed - In the FY23 Annual Report, management said the Vande Bharat Sleeper order for 10 rakes from Integral Coach Factory would see supplies commence in FY 2023-24. Testing and CCRS inspection of the 1st prototype were not completed as of March 2025 and the balance 9 trains could not be delivered in FY25; the first train entered commercial service in January 2026.
43. Orders worth ₹10,000 crore in pipeline awarded during FY23 and FY24 Delivered - In the FY23 Annual Report, management said orders worth Rs. 10,000 crore in the pipeline were expected to be awarded during the current and next year, FY23 and FY24. The FY23 order book stood at ₹8,570 crore as on 1 April 2023, the FY24 order book reached ₹11,872 crore as on 1 April 2024, with FY24 bookings up 39%.
44. Vande Bharat Sleeper first prototype rollout in Q1 FY25 Partial - In the FY24 Annual Report, management said the first prototype of the Vande Bharat Sleeper train set, then under production, was expected to roll out in Q1 FY 2024-25. The first sleeper train was inspected in April 2025 and cleared all approvals while awaiting route allocation, and the first train was flagged off into commercial usage in January 2026.
45. Bangalore Metro first train set delivery beginning June 2025 Partial - In the FY24 Annual Report, management said delivery of the first Bangalore Metro train set from the 318-car order was slated to begin in June 2025, with the last trainset by May 2027. Bulk production started in FY26 and two trains were delivered by December 2025; the CRS inspection was held the day before the Q1 FY27 call, with commercial use to follow shortly.
46. Defence share of revenue around 30% in FY24 Missed - In the FY23 Annual Report, management expected the Defence business share of total company revenue to reach around 30% during the current year, FY24. The FY24 defence segment contribution was 19% of revenue.
47. Defence & Aerospace orders worth ₹4,000 crore in pipeline Delivered - In the FY23 Annual Report, management said Defence & Aerospace orders worth Rs. 4000 crore were in the pipeline, to improve the order book position in subsequent years. The FY24 defence order book stood at 40% of the total, ₹4,790 crore.
48. FY24 aspirational growth of over 25% Missed - In the FY23 Annual Report, management fixed an aspirational target to grow over 25% versus the previous year's achievements for FY24. FY24 revenue grew 3.99% to 4,054 crores.