1. China subsidiary - $6-8 million revenue by end of FY26 Delivered - At the Q2 FY26 call, Surendra Sai stated the China subsidiary would "end the year with $6 million to $8 million in revenue generation". H1 FY26 delivered \~USD 6 million top line from the China subsidiary, which had started generating revenue; Q3 FY26 noted it is trading within China with slight net loss.
2. Four patented products launched in FY27 On track - At the Q4 FY26 call, management committed to launching four patented products in FY27: Fluzam, Midcotin, Cubax Power Extra and Trishanku. Q1 FY27 saw two launched, taking the patented portfolio to \~12 products from nine; Fluzam and Cubax Power Extra are "witnessing increasing adoption across markets"; no disclosure of Midcotin or Trishanku launches yet.
3. FY27 EBITDA margin of 16-17% minimum On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, the MD stated OPM/EBITDA margin of 16% to 17% "will be minimum" next year, with 20% "after two years". Q1 FY27 EBITDA margin was 20% vs 12% in Q1 FY26, above the minimum; management later said 13%-14% is "easily achievable" under normal circumstances.
4. FY27 revenue of ₹1,600-1,800 crores On track - At the Q3 FY26 call, the CFO planned FY27 revenue "higher than ₹1,500 crore, ₹1,600 crore and then going up to ₹1,700 crore, ₹1,800 crore"; the MD said ₹1,600-1,800 crores is also possible. Q1 FY27 revenue was ₹396 crores vs ₹381 crores, +4% YoY; guidance has been reset to \~₹1,500 crores with profitability prioritized over top line.
5. Balance 75% of preferential issue (₹150 crore) raised in FY26 Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management was hopeful of raising the balance 75% of the ₹150 crore warrant money (₹35 crore = 25% received) within the financial year as markets improved. Warrant conversion did not happen; the QIP closed unpaid around June 2026 after investors did not pay the balance at much lower prices, and proceeds were revised down to ₹37.50 crore with forfeited subscriptions.
6. Gajraula brownfield expansion - ₹90 crores, completion by March/April 2026 Missed - At the Q4 FY25 call, management planned a ₹90 crore brownfield expansion of the Gajraula technical plant, starting within a month and completing by March or April 2026, with benefits from FY26-27; ₹60 crore of funding was sanctioned. ₹7-10 crores was spent, but the project was delayed and held through Q2-Q4 FY26 and remained on hold with no timeline in Q1 FY27; capacity utilisation runs at 80-90% in season.
7. FY26 OPEX reduction of ₹30-40 crores Delivered - At the Q1 FY26 call, the CFO guided full-year OPEX including depreciation and interest lower by "anywhere between ₹30 crores to ₹40 crores" vs last year's "close to ₹420 crores". FY26 OPEX was ₹280 crore vs ₹331 crore in FY25, a ₹51 crore reduction exceeding the target.
8. Sales returns not more than 10-12% in FY26 Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management targeted sales returns of "not more than 10% to 12%" this year, versus 20%-24% in each of the last two years. Q3 FY26 9M returns fell 40%-45% to ₹180 crores; Q4 FY26 put returns at around 20-21%, down \~10 points, with management targeting below 20% next year.
9. FY26 EBITDA margin of 15%+ Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management guided FY26 annual EBITDA margin "expected to exceed 15% plus", after the Q4 FY25 call guided 15% to 18% vs 11% then. Targets stepped down to 13-14% for H2 and "around 12%" for the full year; FY26 EBITDA margin was 8% vs 11%.
10. FY26 revenue of ₹1,600-1,700 crores Missed - At the Q1 FY26 call, management targeted FY26 revenue "in the range of ₹1,600 crores to ₹1,700 crores", described as conservative and net of expected sales returns. Guidance was cut to \~₹1,500 crore in Q2 FY26, then to ₹1,300-1,400 crores in Q3 FY26; FY26 revenue was ₹1,257 crore, down 31% YoY.
11. Solar energy tie-up - 33% energy cost savings Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management projected the 3 MW solar tie-up at the Gajraula plant to save 33% on energy cost; the Q1 FY24 announcement cited 33% per-unit electricity savings and over 4,000 tonnes of carbon emission reduction. The 3 MW solar PPA with Fourth Partner was signed in Q1 FY24, and the FY24 annual report confirmed energy costs reduced by 33%.
12. Sudarshan Farm Chemicals - EBITDA close to 25% Pending - At the Q4 FY24 call, Vikas Jain said Sudarshan was loss-making with EBITDA of around -10% on ₹250 crores turnover at acquisition, but Best Agro's supply-chain benefits led to an expectation of EBITDA levels close to 25%, above Best Agro's own. H1 FY25 Sudarshan sales of ₹213 crores grew 74% quarter-on-quarter, but no disclosure of the achieved EBITDA level has been made.
13. Inventory of \~₹950 crores liquidated over next 6 months Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, the CFO said inventory of \~₹950 crores as of March 2024 will be fully exhausted over the next 6 months, with high-cost inventory "very less" by second quarter end. High-cost inventory was \~80% closed by June and fully liquidated by Q2 FY25; total closing inventory in September stood at ₹873 crores, not fully exhausted.
14. Branded mix to reach 70% in FY25 Partial - At the Q4 FY24 call, Vimal Kumar said the branded mix "will be more than double this year and we are hoping this will be 70%", driven by new patented molecule launches. Q2 FY25 branded business reached 65% of overall revenue; FY25 closed at a 66:34 branded-to-institutional ratio vs \~64:36 the previous year.
15. 4 new patented products launched in FY25 Delivered - At the Q4 FY24 call, management committed to launching 4 new patented products in FY25, taking patented products from three in FY23. FY25 saw Nemagen, Defender, Warden Extra and Orisulam launched, with Shot Down officially launched in FY25-26; commercial patented products rose to 5 in Q2 FY25 vs 3 a year earlier.
16. FY25 EBITDA margin of \~20% Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, management guided FY25 EBITDA margin of \~20% ("Definitely, 20% of EBITDA, we will try to get it"), later reiterated at 15-17% in Q1 FY25 and at least 16% in Q2 FY25. FY25 EBITDA margin was 11%, with EBITDA of ₹200 crores vs ₹225 crores; an analyst noted FY25 was the second consecutive year of missed guidance.
17. FY25 revenue growth of 20% Missed - At the Q4 FY24 call, Vimal Kumar firmly guided FY25 revenue growth of 20% ("Yes, 20% revenue growth"), softened to 15-20% in Q1 FY25 and a top line "more than 2000 crores" in Q2 FY25. Q3 FY25 withdrew the ₹2,000 crore target; FY25 revenue fell \~3% to ₹1,814 crores vs ₹1,873 crores.
18. Ronfen and other molecule prices not reduced in FY24 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, the MD said Ronfen and other molecule prices will not be reduced this year (FY24) despite lower raw material costs ("we will not reduce our price... even Ronfen"). Q2 FY24 gross margin declined on price reductions and new-launch discounting; branded prices eroded \~19% by Q1 FY25 and 20% in Q2 FY25 across CTPR, Pymetrozine and others.
19. FY25 target - all exclusive/patented molecules Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management reiterated that by FY25 "all should be our exclusive molecule, our patented molecule", with the CFO seeing the shift from generic to specialized within FY24 itself; the FY24 Annual Report carried the same FY25 aspiration. Patented products contributed 30% of branded sales in FY25, rising to 40% by FY26 and \~64-65% in Q1 FY27 vs 45% in Q1 FY26.
20. Working capital improvement visible by Q2 FY24 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, the CFO said results of working capital improvement will be "definitely visible by the closure of Quarter 2 itself" (FY24). At Q2 FY24, receivables stood at ₹1,012 crores against ₹811 crores quarterly revenue, and trade payables rose from around ₹300 crores to ₹890 crores; working capital worsened rather than improved.
21. CAPEX plan of \~₹200 crores - most in FY24, spillover to FY25 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, the CFO reiterated a ₹200 crores CAPEX plan with "most part" completed in FY24 and "some spillover to the FY25", toward capacity enhancement and backward integration; the plan was reiterated through Q2 FY24 with \~₹130 crores expected spent by year-end. The plan was put on hold at Q4 FY24 pending renewal; FY24 CAPEX incurred was close to ₹50 crores.
22. Peak turnover of ₹2,500-3,000 crore possible with current gross block Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management stated that with the current gross block of ₹180 Cr, a peak turnover of ₹2,500-3,000 crore was possible, i.e., asset turnover of \~13x-15x. Revenue peaked at ₹1,873 crores in FY24, with FY23 at ₹1,746 crores, FY25 at ₹1,814 crores and FY26 at ₹1,257 crores; peak turnover never approached ₹2,500-3,000 crore.
23. Full backward integration by FY25 Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management targeted full backward integration by FY25, from \~25-30% imports then, via captive manufacturing or partnerships with players like Jubilant Life, SRF and Deccan. The target was softened in Q3 FY23 to minimizing imports by FY26; backward technical manufacturing progressed with pilot production and the 18-stage Topramezone process commercialized by Q4 FY26, but no disclosure of full backward integration by FY25.
24. R&D spend to touch 4% of revenue in coming year / next 2 years Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management stated R&D spend of \~1.5-2% of revenue "will be touching to 4%" in the coming year / next 2 years. No disclosure of R&D spend reaching 4%; by Q4 FY26, management guided R&D/patent spend continuing at around 1% of sales.
25. Debt - no major plan to raise working capital debt beyond \~₹430 Cr Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, management stated no major plan to raise working capital debt beyond current levels (\~₹430 Cr consolidated), with utilization expected to come down with Q3/Q4 realizations. Short-term borrowings rose to ₹607 cr by Q4 FY24 before being cut to ₹453 crores in FY25 and ₹406 crore by Q4 FY26; net debt was ₹430 crores at Q3 FY23.
26. Major inventory liquidated by early January 2023 Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management stated major inventory was likely to be sold off/liquidated by early January of the coming year. Q4 FY23 inventory was still around ₹700 crores against quarterly sales of ₹250-odd crores; high-cost inventory was only \~90% resolved by mid-2024.
27. Working capital target of 90-100 days Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management stated a working capital target of 90 to 100 days, in line with industry trend, being worked toward. Q2 FY24 added a commitment to cut the cash conversion cycle by 20-25 days over two quarters; receivables fell to around ₹460 crores by Q4 FY24, but working capital days were 223 in FY26, 173 in FY25, and 165 in FY24 - far above target.
28. Major export revenue in FY25 Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management stated export revenue would start in FY24 in small numbers and "very major revenue is expected in FY25 only". Estimates were scaled to \~$1 million per year initially and $10-20 million in 5 years; exports began with consignments of \~$250,000 USD in FY25, \~USD 600K-650K with one Africa customer by Q2 FY26, and a third Sudan shipment by Q3 FY26.
29. Ronfen - 8-20% share of ₹8,000 crore sucking pest segment within 3 years Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management stated Ronfen would take a sizable 8 to 20% market share of the ₹8,000 crore sucking pest segment within 3 years. Ronfen sales went from less than ₹50 crore in year one to ₹100 crore in year two, near ₹150 crore in FY25 and more than ₹200 crore by Q3 FY26; no disclosure quantifying market share of the segment.
30. CTPR pricing 25% below MNC companies Delivered - At the Q2 FY23 call, management stated CTPR pricing would be 25% less than MNC companies. By Q3 FY23 the price stood \~20% below the innovator, and by Q1 FY24 Best Agrolife was selling at almost 25% below the innovator's original price even after innovators cut theirs 15% to 20%.
31. CTPR - at least 20% of ₹2,800 crore market in FY24 Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management said CTPR would contribute at least 20% minimum of total revenue in FY24 and more than 20% of the ₹2,800 crore market ("next year itself we will get for sure"). Guidance stepped through ₹400 crores for FY24 at Q3 FY23, Q4 FY23 and Q1 FY24; actual FY24 CTPR sales were around ₹145 crores, with Ronfen + CTPR together near ₹400 crores.
32. Strobilurin exports to start in FY24 Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, management stated exports of Strobilurin chemistry products (Trifloxystrobin, Azoxystrobin) as technicals and intermediates would start supplying in FY24. Exports started in FY25 with two consignments of around $250,000 USD and another of around $150,000 USD expected; no specific disclosure of Strobilurin technical/intermediate exports in FY24.
33. Strobilurin production - minimum 4 of 5 started by FY24 Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management stated production of most Strobilurins would start by FY23-24, with minimum 4 out of 5 Strobilurin productions started next year itself (FY24). No disclosure confirming 4 of 5 Strobilurin productions started by FY24; pilot production of newer-chemistry herbicides and fungicides was noted at Q4 FY25 and four off-patent molecules were in production in Q4 FY26.
34. Strobilurin intermediates - zero China dependency, 70-80% done by FY24 Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, management stated Strobilurin intermediates dependency on outside/China intermediates would be zero - "70-80% of that job will be done" this year, with 70 to 80% of dependency finished by FY24. Q2 FY24 allocated \~₹150 crores of the ₹200 crores CAPEX to backward integration in strobin projects with no imported chemicals; backward processes use 100% India-based materials by Q4 FY25 and the 18-stage Topramezone process was commercialized by Q4 FY26, but the 70-80% reduction by FY24 was not quantified.
35. Capture \~20% of ₹350 crore fungicide pre-mix market at launch Pending - At the Q2 FY23 call, management said the pre-mix, then in registration and expected within about a year, could capture around 20% of the \~₹350 crore downy mildew/powdery mildew segment "in first day itself" with the launch. No cited source discloses actual market share captured for this fungicide pre-mix at launch or subsequently, so the outcome remains unverified.
36. Three-fungicide patented combination launch by Q3 FY24 Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management stated the three-fungicide patented combination expected to be available by Q3 of next year at approximately ₹350 crores; the Q4 FY24 PPT set the launch in FY25 with a market size of ₹350 crore. A patent was granted for the composition and a Q3 FY23 launch was planned starting in the Kashmir valley apple segment, but no disclosure of this specific combination being launched by Q3 FY24 or in FY25.
37. Two pending patented products to be launched by FY24 Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, management stated the launch of the two pending patented products was expected by next year; Q3 FY23 reiterated plans to launch both in FY24. Tricolor was launched in July 2023, but the Q4 FY24 transcript confirms only one launch that year, with Orisulam launched in April, falling into FY25.
38. Pyroxasulfone technical launch - around December 2022 Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, management stated Pyroxasulfone technical would be launched in market around December 2022. Registration and the final license copy arrived in January 2023, but the launch slipped - Q3 FY23 set sales for September-October 2023, and the branded Azaro was launched toward the end of Q2 FY24 with "great traction".
39. Ronfen FY24 revenue of ₹300-350 crores Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management said the Ronfen revenue expectation of ₹300-350 crores, previously expected by Q3 FY23, was not achieved in FY23 but "in FY24, definitely it will be achieved"; Q1 FY24 raised this to ₹350-400 crores. Ronfen delivered ₹250 crores in its second year (FY24) per Q4 FY24, or \~₹200 crores per the Q2 FY25 call, hurt by cotton acreage falling 30-40%.
40. Ronfen FY23 revenue of \~₹400 crores Missed - At the Q2 FY23 call, management kept Ronfen FY23 revenue guidance of \~₹400 crores unchanged while expecting to exceed it ("this year will be higher than that for sure"); Q3 FY23 revised it to "around" ₹330-340 crores, to "definitely... be achieved for sure". Ronfen sales from Q2 to Q4 FY23 totaled ₹220 crores after a Q2 delay, and management acknowledged the ₹300-350 crores expectation was not achieved in FY23.
41. 30% revenue growth and 20% EBITDA margin - FY24 Missed - At the Q4 FY23 call, management iterated guidance of 30% revenue growth and 20% EBITDA margin for FY24 ("the plan is same, 30% and 20%"), with the CFO committing to "20% plus" ("we are making this commitment"); the FY24 Annual Report repeated it. FY24 revenue grew 7% to ₹1,873 crores and EBITDA margin was 12% with EBITDA of ₹225 crores; management acknowledged the \~20% margin direction was missed due to season failure.
42. 30% revenue growth and 20% EBITDA margin - FY23 Partial - At the Q2 FY23 call, management reiterated guidance of 30% revenue growth and 20% EBITDA growth for FY23, saying the year "will go more than 30%" with "30% and 20%" maintained always; Q3 FY23 expected growth "more than 45%" with EBITDA above 20%. FY23 revenue of ₹1,746 crores delivered 44% growth, exceeding the 30% guidance, while EBITDA margin was 18%.
43. Agrico Chemicals acquisition - ₹150 crore additional revenue per annum Pending - In the Q3 FY22 result announcement, BAL said the Agrico Chemicals acquisition (₹10.22 Cr cash deal) would add 8,000 KL/MT per annum of formulation capacity and approximately ₹150 Crores per annum to overall revenues. No cited disclosure states Agrico's actual revenue contribution or any withdrawal of this expectation; in Q2 FY24 the company noted acquiring a 99% stake in Kashmir Chemical, a Jammu-based formulation firm, to expand manufacturing capacity.
44. Preferential issue proceeds - ₹200 crore for capex, working capital, GCP Missed - In the FY24 Annual Report, the Board proposed a preferential issue of up to 31,25,000 convertible warrants at ₹640 per warrant aggregating up to ₹200 crore - ₹70 crores capex, ₹120 crores working capital, ₹10 crores GCP. Proceeds were cut to ₹150 crore in December 2024 on undersubscription and then to ₹37.50 crore on non-exercise of conversion rights, with capex and GCP allocations reduced to zero and working capital to ₹37.50 crore.
45. Company to become ₹2000 crore company by 2022/2023 Missed - In the FY20 Annual Report, the company was to become an ₹2000 crore company by 2022; the Q1 FY21 PPT moved the aim to 2023. Revenue was ₹1,210.80 crores in FY22, ₹1,746 crores in FY23, peaking at ₹1,873 crores in FY24 before falling to ₹1,814 crores in FY25 and ₹1,257 crores in FY26 - never reaching ₹2000 crore.